Ole Miss at South Carolina

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Ole Miss at South Carolina
September 24, 2009

#4 Mississippi (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
7:30 PM ESPN
Williams-Brice Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Mississippi -4, O/U 53.5
It?s usually about week three or four of the season that things start to get interesting. And so it is in 2009 for the Ole Miss program. The Rebels, currently sitting at No. 4 in the Associated Press poll, have won eight straight, the second-longest current streak in the country and the program?s longest streak in almost 37 years.

However, while we all know how Ole Miss finished the 2008 season ? and they certainly looked strong in outgunning the Red Raiders of Texas Tech 47-34 in the Cotton Bowl ? the team hasn?t had to face a quality opponent in 2009, with easy wins over Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana. That will change this Thursday night when coach Houston Nutt takes the Rebels and their highest ranking in nearly four decades to Columbia, SC to face the Gamecocks of South Carolina.

As I?m sure you remember, coach Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks kicked off the Thursday night season this year in a snooze fest against N.C. State. South Carolina won that game 7-3 before heading to Georgia for their SEC opener; a game Spurrier?s team would drop 41-37 in a wild one. A win over Florida Atlantic last weekend put South Carolina at 2-1 entering this game and knowing that a win over Ole Miss would set them up nicely as they enter the meat of their schedule.

The big question with South Carolina entering the season seems to have been answered. Sophomore quarterback Stephen Garcia hasn?t been spectacular but has certainly done a much better job taking care of the ball to start this season and is making strides towards becoming a solid SEC signal caller. His 313 yard, two-touchdown performance against Georgia was certainly a sign of the potential Garcia has and the QB looks miles ahead of where he was when he ended 2008 with four interceptions in a 31-10 beating against Iowa in the Outback bowl.

Of course, there were no such worries about the QB position for coach Nutt and the Mississippi faithful. Quite the opposite actually as QB Jevan Snead was probably the single biggest reason the Rebels received a Top 10 preseason ranking.

Snead, who transferred from Texas, is clearly the most popular Ole Miss player since Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford and any success the team has this season will likely flow from his right arm. Snead has had a nice start to the 2009 season but as I said at the top, the Rebels definitely haven?t been tested.

LB Eric Norwood, the senior leader of the South Carolina defense and one of the top defensive players in the nation will change all that on Thursday. Norwood has to be happy to know that the Cocks' defensive line will get DT Ladi Ajiboye (suspension) and Nathan Pepper (knee) back for this game. It will be the closest to full strength that this unit has been all season.

That could be bad news for Mississippi, especially when you consider this program hasn't won a SEC opener in five years, with the last two losses coming at the hands of Vanderbilt. Snead will definitely have to be on top of his game in hostile territory for the Rebels to break that streak and a win would give Ole Miss a 3-0 start for the first time in 20 years.

The Mississippi defense should also be better off this week as star defensive end Greg Hardy (sprained left ankle) is expected to play. Hardy will likely be on the lookout for the mobility of Garcia as well as the 5-11, 186-pound true freshman RB Jarvis Giles who bagged SEC Freshman of the Week honors last week after rushing for 113 yards against FAU.

Last season South Carolina got the better of Ole Miss as the Gamecocks escaped Oxford with a 31-24 win. That was just one week after the Rebels had shocked the nation by beating Florida in the Swamp.

This line opened with Ole Miss being favored by three points and has since jumped to four. Both teams are currently undefeated against the spread although South Carolina looks much more impressive at 3-0 ATS than does Ole Miss who has only played in one lined game.
 

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Ole Miss in testy SEC Opener

Ole Miss in testy SEC Opener

Ole Miss in testy SEC Opener

After sailing by S.E. Louisiana 52-6 last Saturday, Mississippi has to start living up to preseason hype and opens conference schedule on the road at South Carolina.

These are heady times at The Grove. Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 ATS) is ranked 4th in the AP, their highest position in the polls since 1970, when the father of Peyton and Eli Manning was taking snaps in Oxford. The Rebels have won eight games in a row (6-1 ATS) for the first time in almost 37 years.

Coach Houston Nutt hopes the offensive line plays better, as quarterback Jevan Snead hasn?t looked as sharp as expected. Nutt has stated the O-Line has to do a better job sustaining blocks, especially at the tackle positions. The Rebels defense has been good and the secondary has come around faster than expected, however they will be tested by a Steve Spurrier offense rounding into shape under quarterback Stephen Garcia.

South Carolina (2-1, 3-0 ATS) is turning into the ?ameba? of college football, taking on whatever shape needed to be competitive in a contest. In the opener, the defense led to a 7-3 victory and the offense scored 37 points in just coming up short at Georgia 41-37, as a touchdown underdog. Last week they handled Florida Atlantic at home 38-16, which means all options are available for this matchup. Garcia looks to be on the come, with a pair of very good performances. Spurrier has graded his team ?OK? in all facets.

?We?re trying to get better in every area. We haven?t dominated in any particular phase. We haven?t been terrible but the whole team?s trying to get better. - Spurrier stated. The Gamecocks are 7-3 with ordinary 5-5 ATS record against the SEC West.

Bookmaker.com has Ole Miss as four-point favorites with total of 53. Though it?s only the first conference game of the year, the high ranking and expectations are from a bygone era and take getting used to. The Rebels are 4-8 ATS as a road favorite since 2001 and a loss means playing uphill all season with Alabama and LSU yet to come. Too many in-game hiccups could spell doom for Mississippi, who is 2-14 SU and ATS in SEC openers since 1993 and has lost five in a row and failed to cover 11(that is correct) straight.

In the last five meetings between these schools, the home team is 0-5 ATS, with the favorite covering the number only one time. Coach Nutt believes the defense is the strength of the team, which translates into South Carolina having a manageable running game for down and distance purposes. If not, Garcia could face stern Ole Miss pass rush, which in turn might lead to turnovers.

For fans of scoring trends, the Rebels are 9-0 ATS after scoring 40 or more points and South Carolina is 5-2 ATS off a 20-point or greater victory.

On ESPN, the Rebels lofty ranking will be challenged and something has to give on the total, with Mississippi 5-2 OVER on Thursday?s and the home team 6-2-1 UNDER on the same day of the week.

Power Line ? Ole Miss by 8
OutPlay Factor? South Carolina to cover
 

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What bettors need to know: Ole Miss at South Carolina

What bettors need to know: Ole Miss at South Carolina

What bettors need to know: Ole Miss at South Carolina

Mississippi Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks (+3.5, 53)

Line movement

There has been a decent amount of line movement early on. The game came out anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 and was moved down to 3 rather quickly. Tuesday night and early Wednesday saw the number go back to 3 and then by the afternoon, there were 3.5?s across the board with even some 4?s available.

Bookmaker opened the total at 51 and it was immediately bet up to 52 and then eventually 53 which is where all other shops opened it at.

Injuries

Mississippi All-SEC defensive end Greg Hardy is listed as probable with an ankle injury. Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt told ESPN on Wednesday that he expects Hardy to play, but he?s not sure how much.

?He?s a little better and we expect to get a few plays out of him. I don?t know how many, but he?s getting better and we?re excited he was on the field this week.?

Meanwhile South Carolina All-American linebacker Eric Norwood is nursing a shoulder injury but is listed as probable.

Weather

It should be a great night in Columbia. The forecast calls for a slight chance of a thunderstorm with temperatures in the mid to high 70s.

Achilles? heel

South Carolina?s defense is the team?s strength, but poor play from the special teams unit isn?t helping the situation.

The Gamecocks surrendered run backs of 100 yards and two 40 yards returns against Georgia.

?Kickoff coverage is our sore spot right now,? USC coach Steve Spurrier told the USA today. ?Our kicker?s not real good and our coverage is horrible. It seems like they all like to run together outside. You can see it. I can see it. Everybody in the ballpark can see it.?

Speaking of the fans, it seems they aren?t satisfied with the way things are going. South Carolina?s attendance in its home opener (70, 411) was the smallest since 1995.

Over-hyped Rebels?

The betting market is all over Mississippi in this game. As of Wednesday afternoon, 80 percent of close to 8,000 bets have gone in on the Rebels. After all, what else would the public do with a highly ranked team as short road faves?

But maybe the public is right. The Rebels closed very strong last season and with just about everyone back, they became a preseason favorite in the SEC West. Rarely have they been on nationally televised games so they will be out to prove something come Thursday. Especially quarterback Jevan Snead who said these are the games that made him choose Ole Miss.

Ole Miss supporters will be happy to know their team appears completely recovered from a recent battle with the flu. Two weeks ago, as many as 38 players were fighting through the bug. The team was a bit off in the first half of its game against Southeastern Louisiana but put things together and came away with a 52-6 win.

Line of Scrimmage

The goal for South Carolina will be simple: keep the potent Mississippi offense off the field. In order to do that the Gamecocks will have to control the clock with a successful running attack.

South Carolina was last in the SEC in rushing averaging just 94.1 ypg last year, while Mississippi was fourth in the nation and first in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing just 85.5 yards per game.

The Gamecocks rushed for 287 yards last week against Florida Atlantic, which was the most in four-plus years under pass-happy coach Steve Spurrier.

Trendsetters

The Gamecocks are 5-2 in Thursday night games under Spurrier?s guidance. The Rebels are 1-11-2 against the spread in their last 14 games as a favorite of three points or fewer, but South Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.

The over is 16-3 in South Carolina?s last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record.
 

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Sharps backing favored Rebels in Thursday game

Sharps backing favored Rebels in Thursday game

Sharps backing favored Rebels in Thursday game


Mississippi Rebels at South Carolina Gamecocks

Where the line opened: Mississippi -3.5

Where it stands now: Mississippi -4

Where the wise action is: Mississippi -3.5. Sharp play came in Wednesday afternoon just before 2 p.m. ET.

Over/under movement: Sticking at 53

What the book is rooting for: South Carolina and the under. Couple big decisions here for us. Eighty percent of side action is on the Rebels and 82 percent of total wagers are on the over.

Injury Report:

Mississippi: TE Gerald Harris (hamstring) is doubtful.

South Carolina: DT Nathan Pepper (ankle) is doubtful, while FS Chris Culliver (shoulder) and WLB Eric Norwood (shoulder) are both probable.

Comments: South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier was the only SEC coach who didnt vote Tim Tebow first team SEC quarterback. Spurrier instead chose Mississippi's Jevon Snead. After facing a couple subpar teams in Memphis and Southeastern Louisiana, the Rebels finally face their first formidable opponent of the season.

Dating back to last season, Mississippi has covered seven straight games. Last year, South Carolina beat Mississippi 31-24, in a game in where the Gamecocks were 2-point dogs.
 

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Preview:
Mississippi at South Carolina
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 24, 2009
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina


Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The South Carolina Gamecocks are ranked 44 on offense, averaging 399.7 yards per game. The Gamecocks are averaging 169.7 yards rushing and 230.0 yards passing so far this season.

The Mississippi Rebels are ranked 37 on offense, averaging 424.0 yards per game. The Rebels are averaging 215.5 yards rushing and 208.5 yards passing so far this season.
Home and Away

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 1-0 at home this season, 0-1 against conference opponents and 2-0 against non-conference opponents.
At home the Gamecocks are averaging 38.0 scoring, and holding teams to 16.0 points scored on defense.

The Mississippi Rebels are 1-0 while on the road this season, 0-0 against conference opponents and 2-0 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Rebels are averaging 45.0 scoring, and holding teams to 14.0 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - No. 5 Mississippi at South Carolina

Trends - No. 5 Mississippi at South Carolina

Trends - No. 5 Mississippi at South Carolina

ATS Trends

Mississippi

Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Rebels are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rebels are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Rebels are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Rebels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Rebels are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Rebels are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Rebels are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.


South Carolina

Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Gamecocks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Gamecocks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Gamecocks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Gamecocks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


OU Trends

Mississippi

Under is 5-0 in Rebels last 5 conference games.
Over is 6-1 in Rebels last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Rebels last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Rebels last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-2 in Rebels last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 10-4 in Rebels last 14 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Rebels last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 10-4 in Rebels last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 9-4 in Rebels last 13 games as a favorite.
Under is 13-6 in Rebels last 19 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.


South Carolina

Under is 4-0 in Gamecocks last 4 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-1-1 in Gamecocks last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 16-3 in Gamecocks last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-1 in Gamecocks last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-1 in Gamecocks last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Gamecocks last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-2 in Gamecocks last 9 home games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Gamecocks last 9 Thursday games.
Over is 18-6-1 in Gamecocks last 25 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Gamecocks last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Gamecocks last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Gamecocks last 7 conference games.
Over is 5-2 in Gamecocks last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 9-4 in Gamecocks last 13 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.


Head to Head

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 
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