Picking a Parlay - Strategy?

[thadchr]

Sorry if this seems obvious for some of you veterans, but I was trying to come up with some type of rough system for determining what size of parlay to play the other day.

Say I have 8 solid basketball bets on any given day, and I want to set up some sort of "pyramid" of parlays, as I'm about 75% sure my best bet will win, and I want to maximize profit.

I don't know the exact math, but there has to be some way to factor your %Edge by the parlay odds for each different parlay, and come up with your most favorable mathematical bet.

Is there some kind of tool for this?

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I play a lot of parlays and I used to play a lot more. I've learned not to play too many, but they are fun.
I've hit several 2-team, 3-team parlays over the years.

Hit a few big ones, including an 8-team in baseball and 9-team in college football.

Currently, I don't play more than 6-team parlays. It provides a good enough payout, but adding more teams is just severely hurting the chances.

One thing I like to do is to put heavy home fav's on them. For example, UNC vs. Wake. I didn't want to take UNC -23' straight, so I put it on a parlay and bought it down to 21. Thats something else I'll do. Play about 6 games, and buy some points on each game.
I put Kansas ML on that same parlay. Extremely good chance that Kansas was going to win the game, so I just throw "easy" wins on to the pile.

I'm very streaky, so when I'm hot I'll play a lot of parlays. When I go cold, I play very, very few. I can't pick one winner, why try to pick 6?

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I also try to find who is on a hot streak here on the board, and maybe put together a parlay off that.

Like today....I'm going to make a parlay. Wise and Wiser is doing really well and I think he's a solid capper.

So, on this parlay, I'm going to put Kent St. and Sacramento ML.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Ok, this isn't my best example but here's what I've got today. Also, I can't buy pts on a parlay unless its all the same, meaning all NBA or all College, etc...


20 to win 125

GaTech ML
Marist -4 (bought 3 pts)
Kent St -1/2 (bought 1 pt)
Maryland -1/2 (bought 1/2 pt)

Since Sacramento plays late....if this hits I can play the ML for most or all of it.

I'm playing Marist and Kent St. both str8. Not a lot of games I like other than these. Might play Maryland straight.

Good luck.