Prop Play For KC-TB Game ..... Straight From Minnesota

[Northern Star]

Tampa Bay?s defense is strong versus the run and weak against the pass. The Rams through the ball at will and I don?t see the Chiefs doing anything different.

So, I looked at Hill over 5.5 to 6.5, Kelce over 6.5 and Edwards-Helaire over 2.5. Any of them would be good choices based on the last game. I am going to assume Tampa Bay makes some changes to try to improve their pass defense. Which leads me to taking Edwards-Helaire over 2.5 minus 150.

The reason is I like the lower number in case the game doesn?t play out exactly like I think and also if someone gets injured getting to the higher number becomes more difficult.
The other reason is what other running backs have done against the Tampa Bay defense. Last game Rams running backs did not do much, but their wide receivers torched them. Going back from there.

Carolina: Davis 5 targets 4 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 6 targets 5 receptions
Giants: Gallman 1 target 1 reception (3 receivers had 5 catches)
Raiders: Jacobs 4 targets 3 receptions
Green Bay: Adams 5 targets 3 receptions
Chicago: Montgomery 8 targets 7 receptions
Chargers: Kelley 3 targets 3 receptions
Denver: Gordon 6 targets 4 receptions
Carolina: Davis 8 targets 8 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 8 targets 5 receptions

There are some pretty good backs in this group, but I think Clyde can hold his own and get 3 receptions.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[UMRebel]

They don?t even use their RBs. Mahomes does not dump off like other qbs. He goes downfield.

Lucky for me I unloaded on this play. 😰🤦*♂️

 

[Northern Star]

21 completions so far and not one to Clyde. :shrug:

 

[UMRebel]

21 completions so far and not one to Clyde. :shrug:

Anything for night game?

 

[UMRebel]

Bears prob

Bears prob

Looked long and hard. But found the best one by far

Anthony Miller has been the #2 WR on team. He gets a lot of targets the whole season. This game will be from behind playing the packers. Miller has a low number for prob and is very good value!

Anthony Miller over 2.5 rec -145. Max bet for me. Book it boys!



Edit: misspelled by autocorrect

 

[Northern Star]

Looked long and hard. But found the best one by far

Anthony Miller has been the #2 WR on team. He gets a lot of targets the whole season. This game will be from behind playing he packers. Miller has a low number foe prob and is very good value!

Anthony Miller over 2.5 rec -145. Max bet for me. Book it boys!

I played that one too. Plus Montgomery over 2.5 -150. I just didnt want to give someone a pick with Trubinsky as their QB. That KC game played out like expected except for the running back not getting any catches. It was like Hill was the only one he looked for.

GL

Northern Star.

 

[UMRebel]

Cannot believe we had to sweat this shit! Fucking Trubisky!! Foles, we might have had it at 3rd or by half!

 

[Bryan4Au]

Cannot believe we had to sweat this shit! Fucking Trubisky!! Foles, we might have had it at 3rd or by half!

I played both Miller (Thanks) and Montgomery. I?m curious what number you guys got Montgomery at?

 

[UMRebel]

I played both Miller (Thanks) and Montgomery. I?m curious what number you guys got Montgomery at?

I went with...

Miller 2.5 -145 12x
Aaron Jones 3.5 3x

North got Montgomery 2.5 -150. Wish I knew he was back. I would have played him too. 🤬

 

[Englishman]

Thanks for Miller. I got him at -150 (Bet365)

 

[bleedingpurple]

Tampa Bay?s defense is strong versus the run and weak against the pass. The Rams through the ball at will and I don?t see the Chiefs doing anything different.

So, I looked at Hill over 5.5 to 6.5, Kelce over 6.5 and Edwards-Helaire over 2.5. Any of them would be good choices based on the last game. I am going to assume Tampa Bay makes some changes to try to improve their pass defense. Which leads me to taking Edwards-Helaire over 2.5 minus 150.

The reason is I like the lower number in case the game doesn?t play out exactly like I think and also if someone gets injured getting to the higher number becomes more difficult.
The other reason is what other running backs have done against the Tampa Bay defense. Last game Rams running backs did not do much, but their wide receivers torched them. Going back from there.

Carolina: Davis 5 targets 4 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 6 targets 5 receptions
Giants: Gallman 1 target 1 reception (3 receivers had 5 catches)
Raiders: Jacobs 4 targets 3 receptions
Green Bay: Adams 5 targets 3 receptions
Chicago: Montgomery 8 targets 7 receptions
Chargers: Kelley 3 targets 3 receptions
Denver: Gordon 6 targets 4 receptions
Carolina: Davis 8 targets 8 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 8 targets 5 receptions

There are some pretty good backs in this group, but I think Clyde can hold his own and get 3 receptions.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

I think Tampa maybe by biggest pick in 2 weeks. Coming off a bye and Minny should be coming off a Jaguar win. Minnys defense will have a hell of time stopping the Buccs and cook will be grounded a little


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[Northern Star]

Rebel:

If you see someone that is doing great handicapping....say 20-7 but they post a play where they are buying the hook on a total from 48.5 to 48. The first thing that should happen is you get a powerful jolt because it is a cue that the person has no idea what they are doing and it is only a matter of time before they have a record of 50-50.

It is great to shop lines but I think in totals especially that giving away points doesnt effect the outcome as much. For example this week there were 14 games so far. So 28 possible outcomes. If I sold 3 points there were only two of 28 where the outcome changed. If I took Denver down from 36 to 33 on the under I would have lost. The other Rams down from 44.5 to 41.5 I would have lost.

So tonight I could play it at 48.5 minus 110. If I was playing the over I would play over 51.5 plus 140. If I was playing the under I would play under 45.5 plus 130 are my current lines.

I think selling points is even better when the totals are higher like some of the ones in the 70's in college football or NBA lines (all day I am selling), college basketball too.

I looked last night and I played Green Bay in the third quarter. I think the line was about pick. I played them at minus 3.5 plus 175.

I just think there is value in playing bets at plus money.

An example which I dont know if I will play or not is the first quarter of the game. I could play Seattle at minus 165 or Philadelphia at +145. Almost zero chance I would play Seattle. If anything I would play Philadelphia plus 145. There are typically about 3 possessions in the first quarter. Right now I dont even know who gets the ball. If Philadelphia gets the opening kickoff and there were going to be 3 possessions.....who would you want? Definitely not Seattle minus 165.

Back closer to game

Northern Star

 

[UMRebel]

Rebel:

If you see someone that is doing great handicapping....say 20-7 but they post a play where they are buying the hook on a total from 48.5 to 48. The first thing that should happen is you get a powerful jolt because it is a cue that the person has no idea what they are doing and it is only a matter of time before they have a record of 50-50.

It is great to shop lines but I think in totals especially that giving away points doesnt effect the outcome as much. For example this week there were 14 games so far. So 28 possible outcomes. If I sold 3 points there were only two of 28 where the outcome changed. If I took Denver down from 36 to 33 on the under I would have lost. The other Rams down from 44.5 to 41.5 I would have lost.

So tonight I could play it at 48.5 minus 110. If I was playing the over I would play over 51.5 plus 140. If I was playing the under I would play under 45.5 plus 130 are my current lines.

I think selling points is even better when the totals are higher like some of the ones in the 70's in college football or NBA lines (all day I am selling), college basketball too.

I looked last night and I played Green Bay in the third quarter. I think the line was about pick. I played them at minus 3.5 plus 175.

I just think there is value in playing bets at plus money.

An example which I dont know if I will play or not is the first quarter of the game. I could play Seattle at minus 165 or Philadelphia at +145. Almost zero chance I would play Seattle. If anything I would play Philadelphia plus 145. There are typically about 3 possessions in the first quarter. Right now I dont even know who gets the ball. If Philadelphia gets the opening kickoff and there were going to be 3 possessions.....who would you want? Definitely not Seattle minus 165.

Back closer to game

Northern Star

Thank you north! That?s a lot of details. Appreciate the insight! It really changes how I will bet live bets now.

 

[footlong]

Rebel:

If you see someone that is doing great handicapping....say 20-7 but they post a play where they are buying the hook on a total from 48.5 to 48. The first thing that should happen is you get a powerful jolt because it is a cue that the person has no idea what they are doing and it is only a matter of time before they have a record of 50-50.

It is great to shop lines but I think in totals especially that giving away points doesnt effect the outcome as much. For example this week there were 14 games so far. So 28 possible outcomes. If I sold 3 points there were only two of 28 where the outcome changed. If I took Denver down from 36 to 33 on the under I would have lost. The other Rams down from 44.5 to 41.5 I would have lost.

So tonight I could play it at 48.5 minus 110. If I was playing the over I would play over 51.5 plus 140. If I was playing the under I would play under 45.5 plus 130 are my current lines.

I think selling points is even better when the totals are higher like some of the ones in the 70's in college football or NBA lines (all day I am selling), college basketball too.

I looked last night and I played Green Bay in the third quarter. I think the line was about pick. I played them at minus 3.5 plus 175.

I just think there is value in playing bets at plus money.

An example which I dont know if I will play or not is the first quarter of the game. I could play Seattle at minus 165 or Philadelphia at +145. Almost zero chance I would play Seattle. If anything I would play Philadelphia plus 145. There are typically about 3 possessions in the first quarter. Right now I dont even know who gets the ball. If Philadelphia gets the opening kickoff and there were going to be 3 possessions.....who would you want? Definitely not Seattle minus 165.

Back closer to game

Northern Star

:weed: