More Picks and Some Long Corresponding Write-ups
More Picks and Some Long Corresponding Write-ups
Well, all of my plays from my first thread and this one are still live, and one even cashed already (Wiscy more wins than Nova). My brackets are a bit busted, but still hoping to make some money on these props and futures for the tourney on the whole.
Perusing / Leaning / Adding:
Florida wins South Region (-113)
Florida beats Stanford in South Region Final (+217)
Baylor wins West Region (+515)
Wisconsin beats Arizona in West Region Final (+403)
Virginia wins East Region (+255)
#1-#3 seed wins East Region (+100)
Tennessee wins Midwest Region (+515)
Michigan beats Kentucky in Midwest Region Final (+662)
Reasons behind my picks (broken into paragraphs by region):
Though UCLA is a tough team riding a hot streak, Florida absolutely looks like a championship team right now and I think they come away with a win versus the Bruins. The obvious added benefit is that they then get either Stanford or Dayton in the next round (Stanford in my opinion), which they should be fairly sizable favorites in. At -190 already against UCLA (which I think is reasonable if not slightly low), I see some value in -115 given their road to the Final Four. I also like getting better than 2:1 on the specific match-up pick.
As much as I love Wisconsin and will be cheering for them throughout, Baylor is a rock solid team playing with a lot of energy right now. If they do get through my Badgers, I think they match up fairly well against Arizona (although the odds suggest they'd be pretty about 2:1 dogs), especially if they can bang down low and perhaps expose the Zona big mens' weakness from the free throw line. 5:1 makes this worth a small play in my opinion. Finally, this is also partially a hedge bet to my multiple "sum of all Final Four seeds under" bets. As for the Wiscy over Zona bet, please refer to my final paragraph.
I know Michigan State is finally healthy, playing excellent cohesive basketball, and are a big fan favorite, but Virginia is after all a 1 seed who won (an admittedly somewhat unimpressive, as it turns out) ACC regular season and tournament outright. They play tough D, they're well coached, and frankly I think the public money is what's keeping Michigan State the favorite right now. If they can get past Izzo's squad, they'll face a hot but incomplete team regardless of who wins between ISU and UConn, and they'll be favorite in that game. I don't think 2.5:1 is a phenomenal deal, but again it makes it worth a small bet. Though I think the ISU/UConn game is essentially a toss-up, I think you have to view the Cyclones as the team with the better chance to make a run if they can pull out a win, which makes positive odds on the 1 and 3 seeds look worthwhile to me.
My reasoning on the Tennessee play could not be more similar to that of my reasoning on my Baylor play. Same odds, same idea of hedging against my Michigan and "sum of all Final Four seeds under" bets, and the same rationale of betting on a hot team with the opportunity to match up well against their next two opponents. Also like with the Baylor bet, this will be a smaller play as I'm deadly afraid to bet against teams like Wisconsin and Michigan that can get red hot from three at any time. Ultimately though, both of these bets are still plays against Louisville. I really do think they are as good as any team in the nation. I just also believe that they are entirely capable of a letdown game (like they almost had against a very mediocre Manhattan team) and that they are being given enough respect by Vegas that betting against them offers value. If Louisville does win this whole thing, I'm fucked. I guess I can always hedge at the last minute. And with that, on to my final...
Bonus homer pick (small): Wisconsin to win Championship (+1800). Wiscy is a well-coached team (despite Bo's somewhat subpar tournament track record) that can play on both ends of the court. Just as importantly, a team that can get as hot as Wiscy from three (especially when all 5 guys on the court can usually hit from range) is a threat against anyone. It's March Madness after all. Anything can happen. Finally, Nate Silver has Wiscy at 6% to win it, so at least those odds make this look respectable. :0074
Any and all (non-bashing) thoughts/opinions on these plays are appreciated. :0008
opcorn2