Week 6 plays, angles, and predicted scores

[Agent 0659]

58-66-6 (46.8%)

-$294 (9.8 units) (BR$706)

Sides: 21-22-5
Totals: 23-21
2nd half: 4-5
1st half: 0-2
ML Dogs: 8-5
Parlays: 0-3
Teasers: 2-8-1


Predicted scores record vs spreads= 82-48-9 (63.1%):00hour

I am narrowing my plays from here on out. For a side to be a play, there must be a 3 point difference in most cases, or a 2 point difference off of some key numbers. Totals difference must be 5, or 3 in some circumstances.

I would also like to discuss the # of plays I am making as some have determined it to be ludicrous. Remember, the highest winning percentage, is not the most profitable winning percentage. Over the long term, a small advantage applied over and over is insanely effective. A profit is more assured with 200 bets and a 55% win rate than 50 bets with a 60% win rate. With the break even point at 53%, there is no reason to pass on any wager with an expectation of 55% or higher. Casinos apply this logic at every game they spread.

The biggest problem I have encountered is how I have applied my 'system'. I did some picking and choosing without guidelines and it cost me. That is the difference between the predicted scores record, and my plays record. Hopefully with my new guidelines I can narrow this down.

 

[Agent 0659]

Reposting the Bye Week info:


http://www.twominutewarning.com/g29.htm

NFL ATS Records After a Bye Week

A lot of recreational sports bettors believe that a team coming off a bye week has an advantage. The handicapping theory is that team is playing on two weeks rest, so the team can use the extra week to heal bumps and bruises and also have the extra week to plan for the upcoming opponent.

There are two things wrong with using this as a flat betting system. The first would be momentum. The team may have just put together a winning streak and are running on all cylinders. With the off week, the odds are that they will lose some of their timing and their competitive edge. The second reason would be the lines-maker. If anything because of the public's misconception of the "coming off a bye week" advantage the lines-maker would shade the lines against the bye team.

Below we have listed the against the spread records of each NFL team in their game after the break.

Current Records Ending After the 1995 Football Season. (I updated!)

Washington Redskins 9-3
Arizona Cardinals 7-3
Denver Broncos 7-3-1
Houston Texans 2-1-1
Dallas Cowboys 7-4
New York Jets 7-4
New Orleans Saints 7-5
Philadelphia Eagles 7-4
Kansas City Chiefs 5-3
Baltimore Ravens 6-4
Buffalo Bills 5-4-1
Minnesota Vikings 6-5
Oakland Raiders 6-5
Tennessee Titans 6-6
Carolina Panthers 5-5-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-5
San Diego Chargers 4-4
St Louis Rams 5-5
Chicago Bears 5-6
Cleveland Browns 2-3
Indianapolis Colts 4-6-1
Seattle Seahawks 4-6
San Francisco 49ers 4-6-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-6
Detroit Lions 3-5-1
New England Patriots 4-7
Atlanta Falcons 3-6-1
Miami Dolphins 3-6-2
Green Bay Packers 3-7
New York Giants 3-8
Cincinnati Bengals 2-7

Teams coming off a bye: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia

I think the bye will be helpful to all of these teams to A: regroup, and B: heal injuries.

 

[Agent 0659]

Cincinnati at Kansas City:

Cin -3 (84%)
41.5

Cincy hit the bye week in a funk, while the Chiefs are playing better, especially on defense. The Bengals must win on the road and their defense must stop KC if they have any hope of rallying for the playoffs.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bengals listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 41?.

The Bengals were crushed 34-13 by the Patriots last time out, as 8.5-point underdogs. The combined 47 points were UNDER the posted total of 54.5.

Carson Palmer was good on 21-of-35 passes for 234 yards and one TD, while getting picked off twice in the loss.

The Chiefs lost to Jacksonville 17-7 as a 2-point underdog in Week 5. The combined coer fell UNDER the posted over/under total (35).

Damon Huard completed 19-of-30 passes for 196 yards with an interception for Kansas City, while Larry Johnson was held to 12 yards on nine carries.

Current streak:
Cincinnati has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Cincinnati: 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
Kansas City: 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS

Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Kansas City most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games
Cincinnati is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

INJURIES
CINCINNATI
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Chris Perry RB P-U-P List (ankle/leg)
David Pollack LB P-U-P List (neck)
Odell Thurman LB Out For Season (suspension)
Chris Henry WR Out Until November 11 (suspension)
KANSAS CITY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Keyaron Fox LB Out Week 5 (hamstring)
Dimitri Patterson CB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Benny Sapp CB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Kyle Turley T Out Week 5 (hamstring)
Damon Huard QB Left Game Week 5 (shoulder)
Eddie Kennison WR Left Game Week 5 (hamstring)

The Bengals hope to repeat their post-bye-week success of 2003 (when they won six of seven after going into the bye 1-4) and 2004 (when they won five of eight after going into the bye 1-3). How bad has it gotten in K.C.? Tight end Tony Gonzalez is hoping the final-play TD the Chiefs scored to avoid being shut out by the Jags is 'something we can build from.' Well, might be easier if the Chiefs had a running game.

My original workup is 20.5-20.5, making this a very close game. Arrowhead stadium is certainly worth 3 points, but the Bengals are coming off the bye and are in a must win situation. CB Joseph was suspended for :weed: http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071010/SPT02/710100370/1062/SPT

Brody Croyle is in for KC, which causes some problems for my numbers. I'm predicting a score, but this game is a PASS.

Cin 22
KC 20

 

[Agent 0659]

Houston at Jacksonville:

Jax -6.5 (Houston is a public dog)
37

Houston seldom wins on the road (3-15 SU past 18) and Jacksonville seldom loses at home (9-3 SU past 12). Will history repeat itself this weekend when the Texans visit the Jags or is the UNDER (6-1 past 7 meetings) the more likely outcome here?

Oddsmakers currently have the Jaguars listed as 7-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game's total is sitting at 37?.

The Texans defeated Miami 22-19 as a 5-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Ron Dayne rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries for Houston, while Kris Brown kicked five field goals in the win.

The Jaguars defeated Kansas City 17-7 as a 2-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (35).

David Garrard completed 20-of-27 passes for 218 yards with a touchdown for Jacksonville, while Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.

Current streak:
Jacksonville has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Houston: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Jacksonville: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS

Houston most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 3-7

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home

INJURIES
HOUSTON
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Charles Spencer T P-U-P List (leg)
Ahman Green RB Out Week 5 (knee)
Andre Johnson WR Out Week 5 (knee)
Jacoby Jones WR Out Week 5 (shoulder)
Jerome Mathis WR Out Week 5 (fibula)
Danny Clark LB Probable Week 5 (calf)
Ndukwe Kalu DE Probable Week 5 (hand)
JACKSONVILLE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Brian Smith DE P-U-P List (hip)
Justin Durant LB Out Week 5 (knee)
Brad Meester C Out Week 5 (ankle)
Josh Scobee K Out Week 5 (right quadricep)
Khalif Barnes T Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
George Wrighster TE Questionable Week 5 (knee)
John Henderson DT Probable Week 5 (neck)
Vincent Manuwai G Probable Week 5 (hip)
Daryl Smith LB Probable Week 5 (thigh)

QB David Garrard is doing the things that make coaches sleep easier -- basically, he's not screwing up. Garrard has yet to throw an interception this season, which helps explain why he ranks 4th in QB ratings. Will Kris Brown's 5-FG performance go down as the greatest kicking day in NFL history? It should. He nailed three from 50-plus yards, including the winner from 57 with one second left to beat the Dolphins.

Under 37 $33/30

Jax 19
Hou 13

 

[Agent 0659]

Miami at Cleveland:

Cle -4.5 (83%)
44.5

Trent Green suffered another serious blow to the head, which is another serious blow to a Dolphins team going nowhere in 2007. The Browns will be a rare home favorite when Miami visits this weekend.

Oddsmakers currently have the Browns listed as 5-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 43?.

The Dolphins lost to Houston 22-19 as a 5-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Ronnie Brown rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries for Miami and Cleo Lemon completed 15-of-27 passes for 151 yards with an interception after replacing an injured Trent Green.

The Browns lost to New England 34-17 as a 15.5-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).

Derek Anderson completed 22-of-43 passes for 287 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Cleveland, while Braylon Edwards caught six passes for 110 yards.

Current streak:
Miami has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 0-5 SU, 1-2-2 ATS
Cleveland: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing in October are 2-8
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 4-6

Cleveland most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home
Cleveland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

INJURIES
MIAMI
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Joe Toledo G P-U-P List (foot)
Channing Crowder LB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Donovin Darius S Out Week 5 (calf)
Vonnie Holliday DT Out Week 5 (ankle)
Travares Tillman S Out Week 5 (knee)
Zach Thomas LB Questionable Week 5 (concussion)
Jason Taylor DE Probable Week 5 (lower leg)
Keith Traylor DT Probable Week 5 (ankle)
Trent Green QB Left Game Week 5 (concussion)
CLEVELAND
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
LeCharles Bentley C P-U-P List (knee)
Gary Baxter S Out Week 5 (knees)
Dave Zastudil P Out Week 5 (back)
Orpheus Roye DE Questionable Week 5 (knee)
Eric Steinbach G Questionable Week 5 (neck)
Phil Dawson K Probable Week 5 (player decision)
Willie McGinest LB Probable Week 5 (back)
Antwan Peek LB Probable Week 5 (foot)
Kellen Winslow TE Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Joe Jurevicius WR Left Game Week 5 (knee)
Jamal Lewis RB Left Game Week 5 (foot)

The last time the Browns won two consecutive games was 2003, and they sure weren't going to do it Sunday at New England. But give the Browns credit for putting up a fight, even though, as 16-1/2 point underdogs, they still failed to beat the spread. How soon will the John Beck era begin Miami? Trent Green is out, and his career might be over. Cleo Lemon is now the starter, but it's Beck, the second-round draft pick from BYU, who's pegged as Miami's future QB. The future might be now.

Cle -4.5 $33/30
Over 44.5 $33/30

Cle 39
Mia 30

 

[Agent 0659]

Minnesota at Chicago:

Chicago -5.5 (71%)
37.5

Never look a gift victory in the mouth. The Bears take the Week 5 victory handed to them by Green Bay and look to climb back in the NFC North race with a victory over Minnesota. The Vikings come off a bye week with extra time to prepare for the Chicago weaknesses.

Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 6-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 37?.

The Vikings lost to Green Bay 23-16 as a 1-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38).

Kelly Holcomb completed 21-of-39 passes for 258 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 112 yards on 12 carries.

The Bears defeated Green Bay 27-20 as a 3-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Brian Griese threw for 214 yards with two touchdowns, while Cedric Benson rushed for 64 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries.

Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Minnesota: 1-3 SU, 1-1-2 ATS
Chicago: 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS

Minnesota most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the division are 4-6

Chicago most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Minnesota's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games at home
Chicago is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games at home

INJURIES
MINNESOTA
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
No Injuries to report.
CHICAGO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
John Tait T Out Week 5 (ankle)
Nathan Vasher CB Out Week 5 (groin)
Lance Briggs LB Questionable Week 5 (hamstring)
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Week 5 (calf)
Charles Tillman CB Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Adam Archuleta S Probable Week 5 (hand)
Ruben Brown G Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Tommie Harris DT Probable Week 5 (knee)
Brandon McGowan S Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Fred Miller T Probable Week 5 (knee)
Brian Urlacher LB Probable Week 5 (back)
Bernard Berrian WR Left Game Week 5 (toe)
Darwin Walker DL Left Game Week 5 (knee)

A tough stretch awaits the Vikings coming out of their bye week. They face four consecutive playoff teams from 2006, starting with Sunday's game at Chicago, then must travel to Green Bay in Week 10. Minnesota needs to improve in a hurry. 0 Although the Bears knocked the Packers from the ranks of the unbeatens, just how impressive was the win? The Chicago defense was steamrolled in the first half, and the rushing game produced only 82 yards on 33 attempts.

The Bears are who I thought they were.

That stiff Holcombe is back on the bench where he belongs http://www.startribune.com/vikings/story/1472402.html

Bears are on a semi-short week, and the Vikes are off a bye http://www.startribune.com/vikings/story/1472402.html

Vikings +6 (maybe 7 by gametime?) $33/30
Vikings ML $30/60
Over 37.5 $33/30


Min 23
Chi 20

 

[Agent 0659]

Philadelphia at New York Jets:

Phi -3
42

Philly lost to the Giants in Week 4. The Jets lost to the Giants in Week 5. The 1-3 Eagles are favored over the 1-4 Jets when two slumping teams in green face off in Week 6.

Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 3-point favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 41?.

The Eagles lost to the Giants 16-3 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (47).

Donovan McNabb completed 16-of-32 passes for 138 yards with no touchdowns, while Correll Buckhalter rushed for 103 yards on 17 carries.

The Jets lost to the Giants 35-24 as a 4-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).

Chad Pennington completed 21-of-36 passes for 229 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for the Jets and Laveranues Coles caught eight passes for 89 yards.

Current streak:
New York has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
New York: 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

New York most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of the NY Jets last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games

INJURIES
PHILADELPHIA
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
No Injuries to report.
NEW YORK
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Matt Chatham LB P-U-P List (foot)
Erik Coleman S Out Week 5 (concussion)
Andre Dyson CB Questionable Week 5 (foot)
Chad Pennington QB Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Dewayne Robertson DT Questionable Week 5 (knee)
Eric Smith S Questionable Week 5 (thigh)
Darian Barnes RB Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
David Barrett CB Probable Week 5 (thigh)
David Bowens LB Probable Week 5 (hand)
Jerricho Cotchery WR Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Thomas Jones RB Probable Week 5 (calf)
Joe Kowalewski TE Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Brandon Moore G Probable Week 5 (shoulder)

Only Detroit (27) has allowed more sacks than the Eagles' 19, but despite facing intense pressure, quarterback Donovan McNabb has thrown just one interception this season. Is Chad Pennington on a short leash? The Jets quarterback has thrown five interceptions in the past two weeks, prompting some discussion that backup Kellen Clemens should start warming up. The Jets need a turnaround. Quick. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...struggling_chad_penningtons_future_in_do.html

J-E-T-S +3 $33/30
J-E-T-S ML $30/42
Under 42 $33/30 (This is an instance of still playing the under, even though the predicted difference is only 3. The original work-up was 18.5-13 in favor of the Jets. So even factoring in a higher score, it still goes under the total.)

J-E-T-S 20
Phi 19

 

[Agent 0659]

St. Louis at Baltimore:

Baltimore -9.5 (Rams a big public dog)
37.5

Baltimore held the 49ers to six first downs last week. Can they do the same to a struggling Rams team that scored 31 points last week but is looking for its first win of the season?

Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 10-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 37?.

The Rams lost to Arizona 34-31 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).

Gus Frerotte threw for 262 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions, while Torry Holy caught five passes for 89 yards and a touchdown.

The Ravens defeated San Francisco 9-7 as a 4-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (34.5).

Steve McNair completed 29-of-43 passes for 214 yards with no touchdowns for Baltimore, while Matt Stover kicked three field goals in the win.

Current streak:
St. Louis has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
St. Louis: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS
Baltimore: 3-2 SU, 0-5 ATS

St. Louis most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Baltimore is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

INJURIES
ST. LOUIS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Isaac Bruce WR Out Week 5 (hamstring)
Corey Chavous S Out Week 5 (pectoral)
Adam Goldberg G Out Week 5 (knee)
Tye Hill CB Out Week 5 (back)
Steven Jackson RB Out Week 5 (groin)
Dane Looker WR Out Week 5 (thigh)
Raonall Smith LB Out Week 5 (knee)
Marc Bulger QB Questionable Week 5 (ribs)
James Hall DE Questionable Week 5 (pectoral)
Drew Bennett WR Probable Week 5 (thigh)
Richie Incognito G Probable Week 5 (ankle)
Leonard Little DE Probable Week 5 (knee)
Chris Massey RB Probable Week 5 (abdomen)
Jerome Carter DB Left Game Week 5 (foot)
Todd Johnson DB Left Game Week 5 (head)
BALTIMORE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Todd Heap TE Out Week 5 (thigh)
Jonathan Ogden T Out Week 5 (toe)
Trevor Pryce DT Out Week 5 (wrist)
Samari Rolle CB Out Week 5 (illness)
Daniel Wilcox TE Out Week 5 (foot)
Yamon Figurs WR Questionable Week 5 (shoulder)
Derrick Mason WR Questionable Week 5 (knee)
Steve McNair QB Probable Week 5 (groin)
Terrell Suggs LB Probable Week 5 (eye)
Adam Terry T Left Game Week 5 (leg)

For the first time since their 2000 Super Bowl season, the Ravens won a game despite scoring only field goals. Injuries to the offensive line might force Baltimore to keep relying on Matt Stover for all its points. If St. Louis loses at Baltimore on Sunday, this squad will tie the '62 Rams for the worst start (0-6) in franchise history. And 0-7 is a distinct possibility, given that the Rams must travel to Seattle in Week 7.

Billick might tun over play calling duties (ya think!) http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.maese10oct10,0,6032949.column

Bal -9.5 $33/30 :com:

Bal 26
STL 10

 

[Agent 0659]

Tennessee at Tampa Bay:

TB -3
37.5

Tennessee continues to be a cover machine (12-2 ATS past 14) while Tampa Bay comes off a humbling loss against Indy. The Titans have covered three in a row vs. the Bucs, who opened as home chalk to a team coming off a bye week.

Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Titans, while the game's total is sitting at 38.

The Titans defeated Atlanta 20-13 as a 7.5-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).

Vince Young completed 20-of-33 passes for 157 yards with three interceptions and Chris Brown rushed for 27 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

The Buccaneers lost to Indianapolis 33-14 as a 9-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (45).

Jeff Garcia completed 18-of-23 passes for 143 yards with two touchdowns and Ike Hilliard caught eight passes for 58 yards.

Current streak:
Tennessee has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Tennessee: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

INJURIES
TENNESSEE
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
David Givens WR P-U-P List (knee)
Adam Jones CB Out For Season (suspension)
Craig Hentrich P Questionable Week 5 (back)
David Thornton LB Probable Week 5 (back)
TAMPA BAY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Phillip Buchanon CB Questionable Week 5 (foot)
Ike Hilliard WR Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Brian Kelly CB Questionable Week 5 (groin)
Greg Spires DE Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Michael Pittman RB Left Game Week 5 (leg)

If the Bucs are going to be playoff contenders in the second half, they must find a solution (re: trade) to their RB injury woes. Names being mentioned by the Tampa Bay media: Vikings' Mewelde Moore, Chargers' Michael Turner, Broncos' Mike Bell. For the fourth time since Jeff Fisher became head coach, the Titans have started 3-1. Good news for Tennessee: On those three previous occasions, they made the playoffs.

TB -3 $33/30
Under 37.5 $33/30

TB 19
Ten 13

 

[Agent 0659]

Washington at Green Bay:

GB -3 (-125)
40.5

Everyone wanting the Packers to falter got their wish Sunday. Everyone wanting the Redskins to prove they are a legit force in the NFC got their wish too. The Pack opened as three-point home faves in Week 6.

Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Redskins, while the game's total is sitting at 41.

The Redskins defeated Detroit 34-3 as a 4-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (44.5).

Jason Campbell threw for 248 yards with two touchdown passes for Washington, while Mike Sellers rushed for 24 yards and touchdown on five carries and also caught a touchdown pass in the win.

The Packers lost to Chicago 27-20 as a 3-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Brett Favre completed 29-of-40 passes for 322 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while Greg Jennings caught four passes for 83 yards with a touchdown.

Team records:
Washington: 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Green Bay: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS

Washington most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Washington is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games

INJURIES
WASHINGTON
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Santana Moss WR Out Week 5 (groin)
Randy Thomas G Out Week 5 (triceps)
Brandon Lloyd WR Probable Week 5 (shin)
Clinton Portis RB Probable Week 5 (knee)
Mike Sellers RB Probable Week 5 (heel)
Fred Smoot CB Probable Week 5 (hamstring)
Sean Taylor S Probable Week 5 (knee)
Phillip Daniels DL Left Game Week 5 (arm)
Antwaan Randle El WR Left Game Week 5 (hamstring)
GREEN BAY
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Will Blackmon CB Out Week 5 (foot)
Colin Cole DT Out Week 5 (concussion)
Brandon Jackson RB Out Week 5 (shin)
Mike Montgomery DE Out Week 5 (knee)
Chad Clifton T Probable Week 5 (illness)
Nick Collins S Probable Week 5 (knee)
Al Harris CB Probable Week 5 (back)
Cullen Jenkins DE Probable Week 5 (ribs)
Corey Williams DT Probable Week 5 (back)
Charles Woodson CB Probable Week 5 (foot)
Greg Jennings WR Left Game Week 5 (shoulder)

The 144 yards allowed to Detroit was the lowest total given up by a Redskins defense in 15 years. It helped that Washington enjoyed a nearly 10-minute edge in time of possession. The Packers, like most teams, aren't good enough to turn the ball over five times, commit 12 penalties and still win. 'We're not a bad football team, but we're not great either,' said Brett Favre after the loss to the Bears.

Teaser :sadwave: $33/30
Was +9.5
Under 47

GB 20
Was 19

 

[Agent 0659]

Carolina at Arizona:

Ari -4
41

Kurt Warner is in and Jake Delhomme is definitely out. Arizona looks to win another close game, while Carolina hopes David Carr and a stingy defense can move the Panthers to 3-0 SU and ATS on the road for the season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 3?-point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 40.

The Panthers edged New Orleans 16-13 as a 4-point underdog in Week 5. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43.5).

David Carr completed 10-of-17 passes for 119 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while Steve Smith caught four passes for 47 yards and a touchdown.

The Cardinals defeated St. Louis 34-31 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).

Kurt Warner threw for 190 yards with a touchdown and an interception and also ran in for a score for Arizona, while Larry Fitzgerald caught nine passes for 136 yards with a touchdown in the win.

Current streak:
Arizona has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Carolina: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Arizona: 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS

Carolina most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Arizona most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games

INJURIES
CAROLINA
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Jake Delhomme QB Out Week 5 (right elbow)
Nick Goings RB Out Week 5 (concussion)
Dan Morgan LB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Adam Seward LB Out Week 5 (ankle)
ARIZONA
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Anquan Boldin WR Out Week 5 (hip)
Alan Branch DT Out Week 5 (hand)
Levi Brown T Out Week 5 (ankle)
Joe Tafoya DE Out Week 5 (hamstring)
Karlos Dansby LB Probable Week 5 (shoulder)
Marcel Shipp RB Probable Week 5 (ribs)
Elton Brown G Left Game Week 5 (knee)
Matt Leinart QB Left Game Week 5 (collarbone)

The Panthers are in a precarious state at quarterback. Jake Delhomme is out for the rest of the season. David Carr is banged-up. Undrafted rookie Matt Moore is now the backup. The phone lines will be heating up in Charlotte. With Matt Leinart out and 36-year-old Kurt Warner now the full-time QB, the Cards need a solid backup. But The Arizona Republic reports that it won't be ex-Cardinal Jake Plummer, who has retired.

Pass

Ari 23
Car 21

 

[Agent 0659]

CHEATERS at Dallas:

CHEATERS -5.5 (88%)
53.5

Two of the remaining three unbeaten teams lock up in Dallas Sunday when the untested CHEATERS visit the Cowboys. Dallas stole a Monday Night win against Buffalo on two late scores, while the CHEATS won a glorified practice against Cleveland.

Oddsmakers currently have the CHEATERS listed as 4-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 52.

The CHEATERS defeated the Brown 34-17 as a 15.5-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).

Tom Brady passed for 265 yards with three touchdowns for CHEATERS, while Ben Watson caught six passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

The Cowboys retrieved an onside kick and Nick Folk kicked a 53-yard field goal with no time left on the clock, as they defeated the Bills 25-24 at Ralph Wilson Stadium last time out. The Cowboys could not cover the 11-point spread, and the combined 49 points made it OVER the posted total of 45.5.

Tony Romo completed 29-of-50 pass attempts for 309 yards with two touchdowns, while getting picked off five times.

Current streak:
CHEATERS has won 5 straight games.
Dallas has won 5 straight games.

Team records:
CHEATERS: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS
Dallas: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS

CHEATERS most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1

Dallas most recently:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
CHEATERS is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
CHEATERS is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of CHEATERS last 5 games when playing Dallas
CHEATERS is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing New England
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games

INJURIES
CHEATERS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Troy Brown WR P-U-P List (knee)
Chad Jackson WR P-U-P List (knee)
Eddie Jackson CB P-U-P List (knee)
Richard Seymour DE P-U-P List (knee)
Dan Koppen C Out Week 5 (ankle)
Laurence Maroney RB Out Week 5 (groin)
David Thomas TE Out Week 5 (foot)
Rosevelt Colvin LB Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Randall Gay CB Questionable Week 5 (thigh)
Steve Neal G Questionable Week 5 (shoulder)
Donte' Stallworth WR Questionable Week 5 (knee)
Kelley Washington WR Questionable Week 5 (hamstring)
Tom Brady QB Probable Week 5 (right shoulder)
Kevin Faulk RB Left Game Week 5 (leg)
DALLAS
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Courtney Brown CB Out Week 5 (biceps)
Keith Davis S Out Week 5 (shoulder)
Terry Glenn WR Out Week 5 (knee)
Anthony Henry CB Out Week 5 (ankle)
Oliver Hoyte RB Out Week 5 (neck)
Greg Ellis LB Probable Week 5 (Achilles)
Terence Newman CB Probable Week 5 (foot)
Kevin Burnett LB Left Game Week 5 (leg)

TheCHEATS and Cowboys have met just nine times, so history doesn't figure to influence Sunday's game. But if it means anything (OK, it really doesn't), Bill Belichick is just 1-3 vs. Wade Phillips. Can a kicker be rookie of the year? Not only did Nick Folk nail the 53-yarder (twice) to beat Buffalo but his execution of the onside kick was flawless. His only missed FG this season was a block by the Bears.

What a surprise one of the CHEATERS players is in the news for a cheap shot last week. http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/browns/2007/10/09/ddn100907browns.html

Good luck Dallas in trying to run any no huddle offenses either, because we all know the CHEATERS will lay down and act like they are hurt.

Cheating fukcs.

Fukc both of these teams.

NE 31
DAL 28

 

[Agent 0659]

Oakland at San Diego:

SD -10.5
44.5

Oakland is cursing the schedule maker, after coming off a bye week to face a revived San Diego team. The Chargers opened as 10.5-point chalk after dominating Denver, while the Raiders hope Daunte Culpepper can reprise his superb Week 4 outing.

Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 10?-point favorites versus the Raiders, while the game's total is sitting at 44.

The Raiders defeated Miami 35-17 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40).

Daunte Culpepper threw two touchdown passes and ran in for three more for Oakland, while Justin Fargas rushed for 179 yards on 22 carries.

The Chargers defeated Denver 41-3 as a 1.5-point favorite in Week 5. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (44).

Philip Rivers threw for 270 yards with two touchdowns passes and also ran in for a touchdown for San Diego, while Antonio Gates caught seven passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.

Current streak:
Oakland has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Oakland: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
San Diego: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS

Oakland most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 0-10

San Diego most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland

INJURIES
OAKLAND
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Michael Bush RB P-U-P List (leg)
SAN DIEGO
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Eric Parker WR Out Week 5 (toe)
Andrew Pinnock RB Out Week 5 (knee)
Craig Davis WR Questionable Week 5 (ankle)
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Week 5 (ribs)
Antonio Gates TE Probable Week 5 (illness)
Carlos Polk LB Probable Week 5 (knee)
Jamal Williams DT Probable Week 5 (knee)

There are confidence boosters. And then there are CONFIDENCE BOOSTERS. The Chargers got the latter in routing the Broncos and can now move into at least a tie for the AFC West lead by beating the Raiders on Sunday. Don't look now, but your AFC West leaders are ... the Raiders, the only team without a losing record. The next two games (San Diego, Kansas City) should provide a better picture of just how seriously we should take Oakland.

Raiders have a good bye week http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/10/07/SPS0SKF3S.DTL

Oak +10.5 $33/30
Over 44.5 $33/30

SD 34
OAK 31

 

[jr11]

GL Ponch wannabe!

jr11

 

[dunclock]

Would you like some kind of small wager on the Titans-Tampa bay game:shrug:

 

[Agent 0659]

Would you like some kind of small wager on the Titans-Tampa bay game:shrug:

Nope!






















But I will take a LARGE One!:00hour

 

[dunclock]

With your results so far I should jump all over this but I RARELY bet on my team. I was thinking a hat bet or something there high roller:mj07:

Do you have any outs for Denver tickets? I have a free flight on Southwest and the Titans play them on Monday night 11/19.

 

[Agent 0659]

With your results so far I should jump all over this but I RARELY bet on my team. I was thinking a hat bet or something there high roller:mj07:

Do you have any outs for Denver tickets? I have a free flight on Southwest and the Titans play them on Monday night 11/19.

Up till now the Broncos have been a hard ticket to come by. Cheapest seats were $300 . But with their record, :shrug: .

You're on for a hat bet. Points or no points? And I don't want a freakin TB hat! I will say one thing, I would hate to be in some of the collisions that will be in this game. Should be a bruiser.

Just come out next week while we can still Golf, 75 and sunny today!:00hour

Oh, and before you go talking about results....

 

[dunclock]

I get the +3 and you are on, pick a hat afterwards

Cannot go anywhere in October, got conventions the next three weeks:scared

My record is not terrible, except for my doubles:mj07:

 

[Agent 0659]

:00hour