WEEK 9 INFO

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NFL Opening line report: Home dogs are barking

This week there are some home dogs that have one oddsmaker wondering about the outcome on Sunday.

?I think the home field is something that sometimes gets ignored in games with short pointspreads,? says Richard Gardner, oddsmaker with Bodog.com. ?The players will stay away when the line gets a bit bigger, but right around a field goal is where a lot of them will take the road favorite.?

Two matchups fit that criteria this weekend and they should both be good ones.

The Baltimore Ravens are 3-point favorites at Cincinnati, even though Bengals have a win over their division rival and a better overall record.

Cincinnati won outright earlier this season at Baltimore in a close contest that could have gone either way. The Ravens were flagged multiple times, extending Cincy?s final possession, which lead to a game-winning touchdown.

?We just see it as a game, you know, where the bettors don?t have a lot of respect for Cincinnati,? Gardner says.

Gardner added that the Ravens have to be favored in this game because of their dominant performance Sunday against the Denver Broncos.

?Last week was the first time we finally saw some good action on the Broncos. I thought I was going to have to be rooting for Denver again on Sunday, but we ended up with pretty even action on the game.?

The Broncos lost their first game and failed to cover for the first time this season in one fell swoop. Denver is a 3-point home dog against Pittsburgh this weekend.

?The Steelers have a large following and they?re coming off a bye,? Gardner says. ?And of course their win over Minnesota is still fresh in everyone?s mind.?

It?s kind of interesting that the 6-1 Broncos have been favored just twice and that was against the Browns (-3) and Raiders (-1).

Denver?s divisional foe San Diego hopes to gain some ground in the AFC West with a win over the New York Giants. The G-Men have dropped three straight after starting the year a sparkling 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread.

?I want to see how bettors respond to the Giants after the past few weeks,? Gardner says. ?I?m interested because both those teams have been a bit cold.?

The Chargers won but couldn?t cover the 16.5-pointspread against the Raiders last weekend.

?You look at the Chargers? talent and you just think they should be better. They don?t seem to have the same pass rush,? says Gardner. ?That?s something we take into consideration. Eli Manning has looked good when he?s given time.?

A win will help the Giants out in the NFC East because Philly and Dallas meet this weekend. Oddsmakers have the Eagles as 3-point home faves in that Sunday night matchup.

Gardner says his book was waiting until they heard about the status of Eagles running back Brian Westbrook before releasing their line. Still, Gardner admitted it would be a field goal difference.

?If these teams met on a neutral field it would be a pick ?em. Absolutely.?

Other lines for Week 9 in the NFL: The Arizona Cardinals, who are 3-0 on the road, get three points at Chicago. The Colts give 9.5 points to the visiting Texans in a game that promises to deliver a lot of points. Jacksonville gives 6.5 points to the visiting Chiefs. Green Bay is a 10-point favorite at Tampa Bay. The Dolphins are 10.5-point dogs traveling to New England this weekend. The Titans, fresh off their first victory, get four points at San Fran, while the Seahawks give 10 points to the visiting Lions in a game everyone hopes will get blacked out.

Early lines for the Saints and Falcons have Atlanta as a 10-point home favorite against the dysfunctional Redskins, while New Orleans will open as a two-touchdown home favorite against the Panthers.

 

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Books bounce back - somewhat

Books bounce back - somewhat

Books bounce back - somewhat



One week after having perhaps the worst single day Las Vegas Sports Books have ever seen, the house scooped most of the chips in Week 8. As great as the Sunday win may have been, which in some cases was the best of the season thus far, it doesn?t even begin to nibble off the deficit created last week.

?We did well for the day,? said Lucky?s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro. ?Handle was up across the board and on parlay cards, likely due to the great week the public had last week.?

The win was spurred by the public?s intrigue of big games between good teams, but also finally having one of the public?s darlings of the year, the Colts, not cover for only the second time this season while remaining undefeated.

?Our best game of the day was the 49ers covering against the Colts,? said Vaccaro.

?We also did well with the Dolphins and Eagles decisions. We opened the Eagles at -1.5 and Giant money moved it to Giants -2.5.?


Large money and small money contributed to many of the books biggest games of the day and it had to be encouraging for the books to at least be able to root for decent teams like the 49ers and Eagles. Those two games were the foundations of many of the betting public?s parlays and when they went down, so did the risk.

The Vikings-Packers game was one of the largest handles of the day and it worked out perfect for the books because action was split for each team which further eliminates the type of broad-scale risk the books witnessed last week.

The easy bet-against games weren?t there, either. Tampa Bay and Kansas City had bye weeks and it helped that two of the worst teams in football played against each other. Attempting to pick a side in the Lions-Rams game had to be a tough dilemma for the public, but there was some late action on a side.

?We got a little bit of late money on the Rams when it was announced that Calvin Johnson wouldn?t play,? said Vaccaro.

The Rams would go on to win 17-10 late, but it still remained the least-bet game of the week

The books also found a way to get some money on bad teams, or at least a couple of them. Both the Raiders and Browns were opened with over-inflated lines as a reaction to the bet against trends.

The Browns were getting 13 on the opener at the Bears, while the Chargers opened as 17.5-point home favorites to the Raiders. The Bears closed at 10.5 while the Chargers closed at 16.

The Browns looked to be keeping it close, but fell apart late blowing the cover. The Chargers jumped out to a 21-7 lead and from there played clock management, only scoring three more points to win 24-16.

In the Chargers? case, even though some books didn?t do well with some sharp money, they must be pleased to see a team as bad as the Raiders at least show some fight and compete. The Raiders were still bad, but they are still a professional team playing another. That type of professional pride has been absent this season for too many teams.

There are no polls like in college and no one is voting based on margin of victory. For years the books have always been able to rely on the Pro Football line being the most sound of all the sports because of the professional product being placed on the field. Remember the term On any given Sunday? If a team was double digits, whoever they were in whatever situation, it usually presented good value.

This week, there is more relief for the books because the Browns, Rams, and Raiders all have byes and there is a full menu of quality teams playing against each other.

Even in the instance of America?s new team, the Saints, they?ll be playing a Panthers team coming off a big win in Arizona which should play into some of the public?s thought when deciding what to do, lay the 14 or take the 14.

I would lay 1/6 based on Week 9?s schedule, the books will have one of their better Sunday?s of the year this week.

 

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49ers will be without Clements, Staley

49ers will be without Clements, Staley

49ers will be without Clements, Staley
November 2, 2009


SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) -San Francisco 49ers cornerback Nate Clements has undergone a CT scan on his broken right shoulder blade and left tackle Joe Staley had an MRI exam on his sprained right knee to further determine the damage.

Both players, injured during San Francisco's 18-14 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday, are expected to miss at least this Sunday's home game with the Tennessee Titans. They will probably miss the following game Thursday against Chicago as well considering the quick turnaround between contests.

Coach Mike Singletary said Monday that Clements wouldn't be placed on the season-ending injured reserve list and Staley said he didn't consider his knee injury to be season-ending.

In addition, defensive end Demetric Evans is nursing a sprained shoulder.

 

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Steelers' Clark not sure about Denver trip

Steelers' Clark not sure about Denver trip

Steelers' Clark not sure about Denver trip
November 2, 2009


PITTSBURGH (AP) -Steelers safety Ryan Clark doesn't want his career to vanish in thin air.


Clark became almost deathly ill after playing in Denver's mile-high altitude two years ago, losing his spleen and gall bladder plus 30 pounds due to medical complications that ended his season. The Steelers (5-2) play in Denver again on Monday, and Clark and coach Mike Tomlin haven't decided if he will suit up.

``His physical health, his well-being, of course, is paramount,'' Tomlin said Monday. ``We're going to attempt to do what's right, we're going to weigh all our options and we're going to come to a decision at some point later this week.''

Clark practiced Monday as the Steelers returned from a full week off, and he has received medical clearance to play.

``I think before we considered anything, we needed to hear, `OK, Ryan, you're at no extra medical risk to participate in this game than anyone else is,' `` Tomlin said. ``He and I have received that, but we're still going to proceed with extreme caution. We're not going to hurry this process.''

The illness was blamed on Clark having sickle cell trait, but Clark has an additional condition that aggravated the problem, according to his coach. Numerous players with sickle cell trait have played in Denver without problems, Tomlin said.

Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes found out after the Steelers' 31-28 loss in Denver in 2007 that he also has sickle cell trait, a condition in which a person inherits one of the genes of sickle cell anemia, a blood disorder. Holmes plans to play in Denver.

``Ryan is a unique case where it's the sickle cell trait in combination with some other pre-existing medical issue that creates it,'' Tomlin said. ``Santonio is not at any unique risk, unless he, too, shares that same medical situation, which I believe at this point he does not.''

Steelers safety Troy Polamalu saw Clark when he was sick, and he understands how difficult his teammate's decision is. Monday's game could prove important in determining AFC playoff seeding unless the Broncos (6-1) or Steelers go into a steep slide.

``He almost lost his life the last time we played there, so it's kind of unfair to say I would or wouldn't (play) because I didn't undergo the torture and the suffering he had to go through,'' Polamalu said.

Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward and several other teammates all but said they hope Clark doesn't play.

``Whatever he decides, we're going to back him. But if it was me, personally, life is more precious than football,'' Ward said. ``Any time you miss a game and don't feel injured, you want to play because that's one game you'll never get back. But you've got to look at the big picture. There's still a lot of football left and we'd rather have Ryan for the long haul rather than the short term.''

If Clark doesn't play, Tyrone Carter or Deshea Townsend probably would take his place. Carter filled in when Polamalu missed four games with a torn left knee ligament.

To help prepare for playing in Denver, Ward said he expects Steelers players, including linebacker James Harrison, Polamalu and Holmes, to spend time in a hyperbaric chamber, which is used to treat altitude sickness.

The devices are expensive - a portable chamber costs $16,000 to $20,000-plus, and a full-sized hospital unit can cost $1 million - but Ward refers to his as ``the fountain of youth.'' Ward said a hyperbaric chamber promotes the production of red blood cells, thus increasing energy and accelerating the recovery time from injuries.

``A hyperbaric chamber is a lot like training in Denver,'' Ward said. ``I'll be in there every day this week. ... They're expensive, but they're well worth the investment.''

Steelers running back Willie Parker missed practice Monday due to illness, but is expected to be ready for the Monday night game.

 

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Texans TE Daniels done for season

Texans TE Daniels done for season

Texans TE Daniels done for season
November 2, 2009


HOUSTON (AP) -Houston tight end Owen Daniels has a torn knee ligament and will have season-ending surgery to repair the injury.


Daniels, who injured the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, was hurt on Houston's second possession in Sunday's win at Buffalo when he caught his foot in the turf. Coach Gary Kubiak said he'll have surgery in about two weeks after swelling in the knee has gone down.

``It's a big blow to our football team,'' Kubiak said. ``I just feel bad for him. He was having a tremendous season, a special football season, and we're going to miss him big-time.''

The fourth-year player has 40 receptions for 519 yards and a team-leading five touchdowns this season. He'll be replaced by Joel Dreessen when the Texans play at Indianapolis on Sunday.

The Texans will also be without third-string tight end James Casey on Sunday after he had arthroscopic surgery to repair a problem with the meniscus in one of his knees on Monday. It is unclear which knee is injured, but the Texans expect Casey to return when Houston hosts Tennessee on Nov. 23.

That leaves the Texans with Dreessen and rookie Anthony Hill as the only tight ends on the roster. Hill, who missed time earlier this season with swine flu, has not played this season.

``We have been impressed with his work,'' Kubiak said of Hill. ``He's a physical player. Is he ready to go? I don't know. We'll see, but it's time for him to go.''

Dreessen is also Houston's long snapper and Kubiak said the team could sign another snapper or tight end this week.

If they don't, Dreessen will see plenty of action for Houston.

``He does a little bit of everything,'' Kubiak said. ``He went in yesterday and played 52 plays of offense and punt snapped, field goal snapped, covered kicks. I mean, the kid was on the field almost 80 plays. He's just very flexible.''

 

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Chargers release WR Chris Chambers

Chargers release WR Chris Chambers

Chargers release WR Chris Chambers
November 2, 2009


SAN DIEGO (AP) -The San Diego Chargers have released wide receiver Chris Chambers a day after he had a key catch in a 24-16 win over the Oakland Raiders.


Coach Norv Turner said the Chargers released Chambers because of the emergence of Malcom Floyd and the need to sign a linebacker because of an injury to Tim Dobbins on Sunday.

Chambers was demoted Sunday in favor of Floyd, yet still had a big catch in the win over the Raiders, which lifted the Chargers to 4-3.

Chambers was obtained at the trading deadline in 2007 from Miami for a second-round draft pick, and helped the Chargers reach the AFC championship game that season.

His production dropped off dramatically this season.

 

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It was a long Sunday night in Cheese-land and probably a pretty slow work day Monday in much of the state of Wisconsin after Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings defeated the beloved Packers at Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon. The realization is complete, no matter what Green Bay had hoped for, Brett Favre is still a very good quarterback and he makes the players around him better.

It was also an EXTREMELY painful day for coach Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson, as their worst nightmare came true. About the only thing that will heal this wound is beating Minnesota in the playoffs and going to the Super Bowl. In the end, the Minnesota front office was able to do something Green Bay?s front office wasn?t willing to do, swallow their ego, do embarrassing public groveling and secure the quarterback they needed.

Talking to a bookie in Wisconsin, he absolutely cleaned up, with over 80 percent of his action on the Packers; many betting more than usual because of their desire to have their modern day Benedict Arnold get his.

Here is what we know. Minnesota is decidedly stronger along the offensive and defensive lines than Green Bay. Brad Childress is emulating his former boss Andy Reid in surrounding his quarterback with playmakers who are difference-makers. Coach McCarthy should return his salary for one game for his performance in Week 8.

Part of being a coach is understanding your personnel. It?s imperative to place those players in the best position to win by comprehending their weaknesses and building on strengths. In the first half of the game against the Vikings, there was no discernable difference in the game plan Green Bay had just weeks prior at the Metrodome. No extra blockers to protect bodily harm on Aaron Rodgers and pass routes that took too long to develop. Rodgers played equally as uninformed, standing in the pocket, hanging on the ball too long and taking sacks. The defense rushed three players in passing downs and Favre could have ordered from his restaurant just up the street and had it delivered with the amount of time he had in the pocket.

Finally, after Minnesota took a commanding 24-3 lead in the third quarter, a sense of urgency arrived. Rodgers stepped up in the pocket and released the ball quicker. The offensive line made a cleaner pocket by driving Vikings D-linemen to the outside, forming better pocket and the defense started bring a fourth or fifth player to pressure Favre and Green Bay stormed back to trail 31-26.

With the game at its most critical juncture, McCarthy?s flopped. On 4th and 8, the Packer coach went for a 51-yard field to narrow the lead to two points if good. The problem was the risk was too great for the reward. The miss gave Minnesota not only a sigh of relief and renewed confidence; it gave them the ball at their 41-yard line. Granted, a Packers failed fourth down conversion would have only been a difference of eight yards, however that is essentially one more first down. In the end, the Pack?s organization took a big hit, are left to squander for wild card most likely and Green Bay fans betting with their hearts are heart-broken and have a little less money than they started off the weekend.

The sportsbooks returned to the winning side this past Sunday, thanks to two games in particular. Indianapolis was a solid 11-point favorite and was -13 by Sunday morning. A rare off day by Peyton Manning standards exposed just how ordinary Indianapolis offense can be when he?s not right. The boxscore shows Manning passed for 347 yards, however at least seven of his incompletions were throws he usually connects on. San Francisco coach Mike Singletary needs to put in offense with Alex Smith throwing from the shot-gun more, he looks much more comfortable.

The other bonanza was the Giants. Sports bettors saw Brian Westbrook out, Giants off a pair of bad losses and incredible road record and tripped over themselves to bet the G-Men, moving the line from +3 to -2 at kickoff on New York. The more mentally and physically prepared team was Philly in building 33-7 halftime lead. Eli Manning looks like the quarterback from early 2007 and both lines are unable to compensate for other weakness.

Next Sunday?s night Dallas at Philadelphia should be fun.

Both the Colts and Giants were in a number of parlay and teasers along the San Diego who was -10 in six-point teaser cards, helping the books.

The Buffalo and Carolina game of a week ago had an impact on this past Sunday. The Bills were a fairly popular among handicappers having pulled off consecutive road upsets and at home as underdog. Obviously nobody was watching Buffalo play, as a case can be made Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst No.2 quarterback in the NFL. He was just awful taking over for Carson Palmer in Cincinnati last season. And despite being the under center for both upsets of the Jets and Panthers, Fitzpatrick had passed for less than 120 yards per game. Nothing changed as he totaled 117 yards thru the air in Buffalo?s convincing 31-10 home loss.

Carolina still has issues, but when they have the right mindset and execute coach John Fox football, these Cats are handful. Carolina was determined from the first snap, something Arizona wasn?t (still gloating evidently from Giants win), and shoved the ball down the throat of supposedly stout run Cardinals run defense for 270 yards. Kurt Warner looked every bit of 38-years old, throwing five interceptions and fumbling. Off a sound performance and catching the Saints off a Monday night game, Carolina is intriguing underdog in the Bayou as underdog having a 7-1 ATS mark in New Orleans. The Cardinals whine about respect playing in the Super Bowl, but dud performances like that only back what people believe about their inconsistency, as does 1-3 SU and ATS home record. All three losses were as favorites.

Chicago Bears fans have been groveling all season wondering what happened to the Kyle Orton who couldn?t keep starting job in the Windy City. Sunday, they finally saw him in Denver?s whipping by motivated Baltimore team. The public punched the Ravens ticket moving them 1.5-points from early Saturday afternoon to -4.5. Watch for how the Broncos react, with Pittsburgh in the Mile High City next Monday.

Know your Numbers- Teams allowing 40 or more points and playing the following week were 3-0 SU and against the spread, taking their record to 6-2 ATS on the year.?Short numbers have not been healthy for favorites. Home favorites of three or less are 13-10, 12-10-1 ATS and backing small road faves at three or less produces 4-8 SU and ATS record. ?After four weeks, NFL favorites were 36-26 ATS, however, that has flattened out, with the chalk 25-28-1ATS the last month. ?This has been happening with regularity of lately. Teams traveling three time zones struggle with initial trip. This season, the first 10 games that applied the visitor was 2-8 ATS. The last four contests after coaches knowing what to expect and warning squads are 4-0 ATS. Watch for results of Detroit and San Diego this week.

 

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Jackson gaining yards, perspective

Jackson gaining yards, perspective

Jackson gaining yards, perspective

Eldorado High product lone star on woeful Rams


ST. LOUIS -- Posting on his Twitter account, SJ39, on Sunday night, Steven Jackson said aches and pains from a big day against the Detroit Lions were "starting to get to me."

You should see the other guys.

The 235-pound running back was at his bruising best in the St. Louis Rams' slump-busting victory at Detroit, dragging tacklers while piling up 149 yards on 22 carries and breaking free for the winning score. He can hit the hole, he can create his own holes, and he can put a team on his back, too.

The Lions certainly got their fill and then some from the unique hybrid, a runner who can get the tough yards but with wheels to match. On a contender, he'd probably be one of the NFL's top stars.

"Man," Detroit defensive end Dewayne White said, "he's a big guy."

Jackson was so determined to put a halt to the Rams' 17-game skid, he accidentally ran over an official on one of his rambles. For that, he apologized on Twitter.

No need to revisit anything else in that game, or virtually his entire season for that matter. Jackson has consistently produced despite a lack of playmakers around him in the NFL's worst offense; the Rams have scored just 77 points.

For better or worse, Jackson has been the face of the franchise for years.

Last season, the Eldorado High School product staged a 27-day training camp holdout that reflected a me-first attitude and then missed four starts and most of a fifth -- all losses -- because of injuries.

He's consistently been the most outspoken Rams player, whether it's criticizing music choices and a generally drab setting at home games, chafing as Marshall Faulk's understudy as a rookie in 2004 or voicing lofty goals.

During rookie coach Steve Spagnuolo's often painful rebuilding effort this fall, though, the 26-year-old Jackson has found patience. He's consistently taken the high road, embraced leadership.

"That's me knowing what kind of makes me go and what kind of makes me tick is really not helpful for a young team," Jackson said. "My determination and I guess my competitive spirit sometimes can be overwhelming, and it can kind of take guys aback. I don't want to go there anymore."

That attitude adjustment has helped win back a disenchanted fan base. The production always has been there; halfway through the season, Jackson is 216 yards from being the first player in franchise history with five straight 1,000-yard seasons.

"They've had a chance to get to know me, and I've had a chance to get to know them, so some of the things I say might not take them aback as much as it would in the past," Jackson said. "I'm also growing up.

"I'm just going to continue to let my play do the talking and continue to play hard, and if you don't like me at this point, you just don't like me."

Jackson frequently predicts that given enough carries he'll wear down the opposition. It's happening this year despite a nondescript cast of pass catchers, allowing opponents to jam the line of scrimmage.

A marked man, and yet unstoppable.

Jackson has 784 yards rushing with a 4.8-yard average, tied with the Vikings' Adrian Peterson for the NFC rushing lead. He has 970 yards from scrimmage, 3 yards behind Peterson's NFL-leading total.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves
November 5, 2009

This weekend?s slate of games was one of the more tame, quiet weeks of the entire season for the Sharps. There were a few plays early in the week with a couple more coming in late Thursday afternoon in college football, but the pro football action has been baron.

Of the 13 NFL games, only four games have moved. That includes sides, totals, and money lines, a rarity for this stage of the week. Either the lines are too good being right on the mark, or there is a plan of attack by a few of the groups waiting to make their push at a synchronized time which likely will be late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

In the games that saw early action, the N.Y. Giants were bet up from -4.5 to the dead number of -5.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book while others have settled around -5. If money is coming in at -5, there really is no difference between -5 and -5.5 meaning the next likely move is -6.

For the Giants, the same philosophy as last week for betting them when the move was against the Eagles is still in play. In this scenario, we have a good team that has lost three in a row welcoming a visiting West Coast club.

If there is any relief for the San Diego Chargers, it should help that they?ll be playing at their normal 1:15 pm (PST) starting time rather than the early game which has been dreadful for all Pacific time zone teams.

The Panthers getting 14-points was found attractive by bettors early in the week at New Orleans this Sunday for a few possible reasons, beginning with the over-inflated line. This game should be in the 10-point range or less giving extreme value to the 'dog, a team that has beat the Saints straight up in six of their last seven meeting.

Carolina seemed to have found its growl again last week against a good, but shaky Cardinals team led by past staples of a good defense creating turnovers, a solid running game, and Steve Smith making big plays. It?s the first time all season that they have experienced the three segments of their game coming together against an opponent.

The constants over the last three seasons between the two teams is that Drew Brees has been there, Carolina does what they do, and Louisiana native Jake Delhomme has done enough not to lose. In Delhomme?s last five against the Saints he?s thrown 8 TDs and only one pick. On paper, the Saints opportunistic defense should be salivating over the chance to face Delhomme who has 13 interceptions on the season.

This game looks to be one that could play out similar to last week's Saints-Falcons Monday Night Football game. The Panthers running game should be able to move the ball effectively enough with their two-headed monster and a little home cookin? for Delhomme could be just what the Cajun doctor ordered. For the Brave and Bold, the Panthers money line will net +600.

The current line has the Saints at -13 with the high total of the week again at 52.

In the other minor moves, Arizona money has come in getting 3-points, even laying money to get it, at the Bears. Chicago is currently -3 +105 and is sure to go to 2.5-flat before the weekend gets started.

Tampa Bay found some takers following their bye week taking 10-points at home against the Packers. It?s a good sign for the books when the worst teams in football are found to have value with double-digits numbers. The public will be all over Green Bay in this game at a ratio of about 95%, so they?ll be rooting for the early move to win.

 

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Warner should help Cardinals bounce back

Warner should help Cardinals bounce back

Warner should help Cardinals bounce back

Inconsistency has been an obvious trait of the Arizona Cardinals this season. If the personality of a football team is perplexing, the quarterback is often the reason, and Kurt Warner is an example.

The ugly side of Warner's split personality showed last week in the Cardinals' surprising loss to the Carolina Panthers. He threw five interceptions and lost a fumble.

Warner has passed for 11 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, and Arizona is 4-3. He threw for seven touchdowns with two interceptions in the four wins.

The 38-year-old Warner is past the prime of his career, and on his bad days he looks a lot like an erratic rookie. But he also has shown a steady ability to bounce back from poor performances, and let's hope that will be the case Sunday.

I'm backing the Cardinals as 3-point underdogs against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Cardinals are 3-0 on the road -- with victories over Jacksonville, Seattle and the New York Giants -- and have covered six in a row in the underdog role.

Arizona's running attack borders on pathetic, but wideouts Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin compensate by stretching defenses and picking up yards after the catch. Boldin is listed as questionable with a sprained right ankle, but he practiced Friday and is expected to play.

The Bears are mediocre defensively, allowing 21.4 points per game, and rank 26th in the NFL in rushing offense.

These teams compare pretty evenly, so what the game should boil down to is which quarterback makes more plays, positive or negative.

Warner needs to avoid costly mistakes and let Chicago's Jay Cutler do the imploding. Cutler also has 11 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

The last time I supported Arizona, its defense was embarrassed by Peyton Manning and Warner stunk it up in a lopsided home loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Cutler is not in Manning's league, however.

The Cardinals' success on the road this season coupled with Warner's resiliency makes the underdog the play at plus-3.

Four more plays for Week 9 (Home team in CAPS):

? Ravens (-3) over BENGALS: One of the season's biggest surprises is Cincinnati's Cedric Benson, who is fourth in the league in rushing with 720 yards. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth against the run, allowing 87.6 yards per game. The Bengals rallied late to beat the Ravens 17-14 on Oct. 11, so Baltimore needs this division revenge game.

? Texans (+9) over COLTS: Injuries are weakening the Indianapolis defense, as strong safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson are done for the season. Houston has scoring potential with the pass-catch combination of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, and its defense has improved. The Colts won both meetings last year, but by a total of only 10 points.

? GIANTS (-5) over Chargers: The Giants will be playing with urgency after three consecutive losses, and coach Tom Coughlin will make sure of it. San Diego's Norv Turner is a coach to bet against. I'll try the Giants again at less than a touchdown.

? BRONCOS (+3) over Steelers: It was no surprise what happened to Denver last week. The Broncos were in a bad spot, off a bye and on the road against a desperate Baltimore team. Denver's defense will go back to work and control Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just enough to keep this tight all the way.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 20-19-1

 

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NFL WEEK 9 CAPSULES

NFL WEEK 9 CAPSULES

NFL WEEK 9 CAPSULES

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
SUNDAY?S GAMES

Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Jaguars -6? Total: 42
Weather: Low 80s
Facts: For the second straight season, the Jaguars lost to a winless team near midseason. Last week it was a 30-13 defeat at the hands of 0-6 Tennessee. In 2008, it was a 21-19 loss to 0-8 Cincinnati. ... Don?t expect an air show: Jacksonville?s David Garrard and KC.?s Matt Cassel have completed only one pass apiece of 40-plus yards this season.
Analysis: K.C. might be reduced to playing a third-string free safety, so the play-action fakes of Garrard to Maurice Jones-Drew, who has a league-best 10 rushing TDs, should be especially effective.
Forecast: Jaguars 21, Chiefs 9

Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Raves -3 Total: 43?
TV: None RADIO: KWWN-AM (1000)
Weather: High 60s
Facts: Cedric Benson?s 37 rushes (189 yards) for Cincinnati against Chicago two weeks ago was one off his career high. ... The Ravens knocked off unbeaten Denver 30-7 last week. ... The Bengals can take a choke hold on the AFC North with victories Sunday and next week against Pittsburgh. After that, Cincinnati faces Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit.
Analysis: Baltimore?s defense has dropped the ball. In 2008, the Ravens turned the ball over to the offense 25 times in enemy territory. Over the past four games this year, that total is one. That?s a reason the Bengals held Baltimore to one offensive TD in their past meeting.
Forecast: Bengals 24, Ravens 20

Houston (5-3) at Indianapolis (7-0)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Colts -9 Total: 48
TV: CBS (Channel 8)
Weather: High 60s
Facts: The only other time Houston was two games over .500 was in 2007 (2-0). Then came a date with Indianapolis, with the Colts winning 30-24. ... Texans RB Steve Slaton was benched after his seventh fumble of the season last week at Buffalo. But big deal. In 1964, KC QB Len Dawson fumbled seven times in one game and kept his job. ... Slaton is expected to share time with Ryan Moats, who had three TDs vs. the Bills. ... Houston will be without TE Owen Daniels (knee); Indianapolis is missing SS Bob Sanders (biceps,) CB Marlin Jackson (knee) and LB Tyjuan Hagler (biceps).
Analysis: Over the past five games, Houston is giving up only 260 yards a game, which would put them atop the charts if its first three games were thrown out. But the Texans haven?t faced a QB ranked in the top 12 yet. Peyton Manning is No. 2.
Forecast: Colts 35, Texans 21

Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Falcons -10 Total: 42?
Facts: For the third time in four weeks, the Falcons are facing a team coming off a bye. And they?ll be doing it on short rest after their 35-27 Monday night loss at New Orleans. In the past eight years, however, such short-rested teams are 7-1 against the line . ... At this time last year, Redskins RB Clinton Portis was running away with the rushing lead with 944 yards. This year, Washington?s whole team has 654. ... Atlanta yielded four 80-yard TD drives by the Saints on Monday.
Analysis: QB Matt Ryan and the Falcons, somewhat demoralized after blowing their chance in New Orleans, must be getting tired of getting smacked in the face by fresh troops, including two weeks ago against Dallas. But they should have enough to win.
Forecast: Falcons 17, Redskins 14

Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Packers -9? Total: 43?
Weather: Mid-80s
Facts: Tampa Bay?s Josh Freeman will be the third rookie QB to start this season. ... Green Bay?s Aaron Rodgers (probable, toe/foot), the league?s leading passer, has thrown for eight TDs on third down, also best in the NFL. ... Tampa Bay?s Raheem Morris is one of four rookie coaches this year who took over a team coming off a losing record. Those four guys have a combined 3-26 mark. The three first-year bosses with teams that were .500 or better in 2008 are a cumulative 17-5.
Analysis: The Packers, who expect to get their front-line OLTs back, lead the league in facing backup QBs, already having defeated Detroit?s Daunte Culpepper, Cleveland?s Derek Anderson and St. Louis? Kyle Boller. Now they?ll get to put another skin on the wall.
Forecast: Packers 24, Buccaneers 10

Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Bears -3 Total: 44?
TV: Fox (5)
Weather: Mid-60s
Facts: This is the teams? first meeting since Denny Green?s bloodcurdling ?They are who we thought they were!? rant in 2006. ... Bears WR/KR Devin Hester (questionable, ankle) reportedly was limping in practice. ... The Cards are the only team in the league without a running play of 20-plus yards. They had only five last season and in 2006 went the whole year without one. ... Arizona is 3-0 on the road and 1-3 at home. The greatest regular-season road/home discrepancy occurred in 1961 when the Lions were 6-0-1 away and 2-5 in Tiger Stadium.
Analysis: Last week?s 34-21 loss to Carolina was an aberration, for Arizona isn?t going to have a minus-6 turnover differential again. But what about the Bears? Giving up 25 first downs to Detroit in Week 4 and 30 to Cincinnati in Week 7 indicates defensive decay.
Forecast: Cardinals 31, Bears 20

Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2)
Time: 10 a.m. Line: Patriots -11 Total: 46?
Weather: Low 60s
Facts: New England has outscored its past two foes 94-7, but that isn?t a record two-game margin. In 1924, the fabled Cleveland Bulldogs won back-to-back games by a combined 94-0. ... In last year?s visit to New England, Miami introduced the Wildcat and beat the Patriots 38-13 as a 13?-point underdog. ... Miami foiled the Jets last week despite having only 104 yards of total offense.
Analysis: Tom Brady appears to be putting full trust in his surgically repaired knee, throwing for nine TDs over his past two games. Although Miami did intercept Drew Brees three times two weeks ago, they didn?t get any in two games against the Jets? Mark Sanchez.
Forecast: Patriots 28, Dolphins 7

Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0)
Time: 1 p.m. Line: Saints -13? Total: 51?
Facts: Since coach Sean Payton took over the Saints, they are 1-4 against the line when favored by more than 7 points. ... New Orleans has won the past two weeks despite committing four turnovers in each game. All other league teams with at least four giveaways are 2-20. ... Carolina is 7-0 in Louisiana since 2002. ... The Saints? top-rated defense, based on passer rating, faces the league?s 31st-rated thrower in Jake Delhomme (probable, chest). He made the leap from 32nd the week before.
Analysis: The Saints have the NFL?s second-oldest roster, so it?s not in their best interest to be playing on short rest against a Panthers team that packs a wallop with its running game, which has generated more than 265 rushing yards twice in the past three weeks.
Forecast: Saints 28, Panthers 24

Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5)
Time: 1 p.m. Line: Seahawks -10 Total: 42?
Weather: Temps in low 50s, 60 percent chance of rain
Facts: The Seahawks were trounced in Week 8 by Dallas 38-17 despite coming off a bye. For whatever reason, teams are 9-17 against the line after Week 7 byes (.345), but 109-73 (.599) after all other rest weeks. ... Go figure: Seattle is the only team in the league with two shutouts, yet is ranked only 14th defensively. ... Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck (probable, ribs) was full go in Thursday?s drills after taking it easy Wednesday. Detroit?s QB Matthew Stafford also is probable (knee).
Analysis: As a rule of thumb, it isn?t wise to pick a team with a 2-5 record that?s a double-digit favorite. Unless, of course, Daunte Culpepper is supposed to play for the other team (and he?s not).
Forecast: Seahawks 20, Lions 17

Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: 49ers -4 Total: 41
Weather: Mid-60s
Facts: Tennessee, which had 305 ground yards in Week 8 against Jacksonville, is led by NFL rushing leader Chris Johnson, who averages 6.9 yards. The best average by a rushing champ since 1934 is Jim Brown?s 6.4 in 1963. ... San Francisco is the only team to allow a 100-yard receiver in each of its past three games. Tennessee, meanwhile, has averaged 88 yards in the air in its past three.
Analysis: QB Vince Young had a successful return last week thanks to the Titans? robust running game. His warts will show this week against a team that has allowed only one team to rush for 100 in a game all season.
Forecast: 49ers 28, Titans 17

San Diego (4-3) at N.Y. Giants (5-3)
Time: 1:15 p.m. Line: Giants -5 Total: 47
TV: CBS (8) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1000)
Weather: Mid-60s
Facts: The Giants have returned to earth at warp speed after a 5-0 start. The Chargers have won two straight since Denver knocked their tans off in Week 6. ... Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes leads the league in scoring with 74 points, thanks largely to a league-best 17 field goals. ... San Diego WR Vincent Jackson is having a career year with five TDs and a league-best four 100-yard receiving days. ... Over past 11 quarters, New York has given up 15 TDs on 32 enemy possessions. It gave up 31 all last year.
Analysis: San Diego?s skyscraper receivers, led by 6-foot-5-inch Jackson, should be able to find success against a secondary that has been abused the past three weeks by Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb. Now QB Philip Rivers takes a stab.
Forecast: Chargers 34, Giants 27

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Line: Eagles -3 Total: 49
TV: NBC (3) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Weather: Low 60s
Facts: The Eagles have given the Cowboys their most lopsided loss in five of the past eight seasons, including last year?s 44-6 rout in the season finale. ... Dallas QB Tony Romo had his second-worst game of the year in 2008 in that loss in Philadelphia (based on passer rating). But in Week 2 he had his best game in a 41-37 victory over the Eagles (312 yards, three TDs). ... Dallas? Patrick Crayton has returned a punt for a score in his past two games. ... Two more 50-yard scores for Eagles WR/KR DeSean Jackson and he ties the NFL season record of eight.
Analysis: It appears the light has come on a little earlier than usual for the Eagles, who rebounded with authority last week against the Giants after that inexplicable loss in Oakland. If Philadelphia shuts down WR Miles Austin, the Cowboys? head dies.
Forecast: Eagles 31, Cowboys 21

MONDAY?S GAME

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1)
Time: 5:30 p.m. Line: Steelers -3 Total: 39
TV: ESPN (30) RADIO: KWWN-AM (1100)
Weather: High 40s
Facts: When these teams last met, on Monday night at midseason in 2007, the Broncos were coming off a 41-3 loss to San Diego and beat Pittsburgh 31-28, as a 3?-point underdog. ... Denver is the only team in the league not to allow a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard receiver or a 100-yard rusher. ... Pittsburgh?s Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked at least three times the past four games, but all were Steelers victories.
Analysis: There seems to be a sense of relief from Broncos camp that they?re no longer lugging around the improbable hopes of a perfect season. An energized Broncos crowd should cause communication problems for Pittsburgh?s offensive line and make for a long night for Big Ben.
Forecast: Broncos 27, Steelers 23

Byes: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, Oakland, St. Louis.

Last week: 8-5 vs. spread; 8-5 straight up
Season record: 58-56-2 vs. spread; 68-48 straight up

 

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Early Division Battles

Early Division Battles

Early Division Battles

As we near the midway point of the season, divisional matchups take on even more meaning. Winning an intra-division contest can help get you a better seed in the playoffs, while losing can force you to make early tee times. There are two early games that have piqued my interest this week in the NFL. Let?s take a look at them.

Ravens at Bengals ? 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS

First place in the AFC North is on the line when the Ravens head to the shores of the Ohio River to play Cincinnati (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) this weekend.

The Bengals are coming into this contest after an impressive 45-10 win over Chicago as two-point home pups. Carson Palmer seemingly couldn?t miss against the Bears? secondary, completing 20 of 24 pass attempts for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson had a hell of an outing against his former team by rushing for 189 yards and a score on 37 carries.

Benson has been a major reason why Cincy has had such a turnaround this season. Last year, the Bengals were ranked 29th in the league with 95.0 rushing yards per game and the fewest touchdowns on the ground with six. Through seven fixtures in 2009, Cincinnati has scored six rushing touchdowns and ninth with 127.7 rushing YPG.

Cincinnati has also been great on the defensive side of the ball. They rank sixth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and fifth in rushing defense (88.0). Antwan Odom has helped keep quarterback on their toes by picking up eight sacks this season.

Baltimore (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) is certainly feeling full of itself after knocking the Broncos from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 30-7 victory as a four-point home ?chalk.? Ray Rice had a quality showing with 84 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The Ravens? defense was the true reason why they dominated Denver. The Broncs converted just three of their 13 third-downs and allowed 200 total yards.

The win over Denver snapped a three-game losing skid that the Ravens had been on, where they lost by a combined 14 points. That stretch includes a last minute 17-14 loss to the Bengals that was a tough pill to swallow.

Despite losing to Cincinnati at home, the Ravens are listed as three-point road favorites with a total of 43 ?.

?I think this is one of the toughest games on the board,? says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. ?Had Baltimore not beat Denver they would likely have been the underdog in this contest. The Bengals own four victories against teams with winning records and should benefit from a week of rest.?

?The bottom line is that the Ravens are favored because of the revenge factor - they lost to Cincinnati as 9 ?-point home favorites a month ago. A customary eight-point swing between games would bring them in at -1 ?. Add another 1 ?-points for the revenge and thus the line.?

Bodog?s Richard Gardner gives us his take on why the set the line as they did. ?Players have been betting the Ravens all year, and this one of those games where we have to take in the bettor?s long term view of the two teams and the fact that some see it as a revenge game. We know bettors will expect a close game, but we know that bettors will see it as must win for the Ravens and bet who they consider to be the better team regardless of venue.?

This series has recently been the domain of the road team as the visitors are 3-1 SU, but just 2-2 ATS. The ?under? went 3-1 during that stretch as well.

What is good to know is that the Bengals have been good as home pups coming off of a bye as they?ve gone 3-2-1 SU and 4-2 in their last six games.

Texans at Colts ? 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS

While the race for the AFC South doesn?t appear to be in doubt, this contest could be considered a slow changing of the guard. At least that?s one way to spin it.

Indianapolis (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) won its 16th consecutive regular season game last week, but had to earn it in an 18-14 decision over the 49ers as a 13-point home favorite. Peyton Manning may have connected on 31 of his 48 passes for 347 yards, but he looked out of sync for much of this game. Joseph Addai took care of the scoring as he tossed a 22-yard scoring pass to Reggie Wayne to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

Despite the close win last week, the Colts have been coldly effective on offense. They are averaging 28.1 PPG, while next to last in time of possession, averaging 29:36 per game.

Things didn?t look good for Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) when they opened the season with they lost three of its first five decisions. The Texans have now won three straight games, covering the spread in two of those tilts.

The Texans had their way against Buffalo as 3 ?-point road faves in a 31-10 victory. Houston didn?t get into the end zone via the air, but did find pay dirt three times on the ground. What was surprising is that Steve Slaton wasn?t doing the scoring. Slaton was benched after he fumbled the ball away for the fifth time this year. His replacement, Ryan Moats, may have grabbed the starting job as he rushed 23 times for 126 yards and three scores.

All was not sunshine and lollipops for Gary Kubiak?s club last week. The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for the rest of the season. So does the loss of Daniels? 519 receiving yards and five touchdowns factor into the sportsbooks into making Indy a 9 ?-point home ?chalk??

?The combination of the Owen Daniels injury and the fact that Indy's high powered offense sputtered definitely had an impact on the line dropping down from 10 ?,? says Gardner. ?To most teams, a spread of 9 ? would be big, but for Colts and the way they were playing prior to last week, this is a big deal, especially with 10 being a relevant number.?

Even though Houston has been team that was down in the dumps for much of its history, they?ve played the Colts tough. The Texans are 1-8 SU, but 5-4 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings with Indy. The ?over? is on an 8-0 run between these AFC South clubs.

Something else to keep in mind is that Indianapolis is that they are 13-2 SU, but just 5-9-1 ATS when listed as a 9 ?-point favorite over the last four seasons.

 

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NFL BREAKDOWN: BRIAN BLESSING: Texans to stick close to Colts

NFL BREAKDOWN: BRIAN BLESSING: Texans to stick close to Colts

NFL BREAKDOWN: BRIAN BLESSING: Texans to stick close to Colts

Houston has covered last three games vs. Indy

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

With a flashy offense and a big-play defense, the New Orleans Saints have been the talk of the NFL through eight weeks. Somehow, Peyton Manning has been pushed slightly out of the spotlight.

The Indianapolis Colts are led by a new coach, Jim Caldwell, but they have not skipped a beat at 7-0. Of course, the main reason for that is the real coach is the quarterback.

Manning does whatever is needed to garner victories. Last week, he did not throw a touchdown pass but had 347 yards through the air as the Colts held off San Francisco, 18-14. Put another notch in the win column.

Indianapolis is a 9-point home favorite over the Houston Texans today. The Texans generally can't beat Manning, but they have made him work for it in recent years. The Colts swept this AFC South series last season, winning 31-27 and 33-27.

I recommend taking the Texans and the points, and with two high-powered quarterbacks dueling, I'll also look over the total of 481/2 as a play.

The past six meetings between the teams averaged 57 total points and all went well over the posted totals. Indianapolis has a five-game winning streak over Houston, but the Texans have covered the spread in the past three games.

Houston (5-3) suffered a devastating loss last week, when stud tight end Owen Daniels was lost for the season with a knee injury. An integral part of the offense, Daniels had 40 receptions, second on the team to Andre Johnson's 44.

But to the Texans' credit, after another frustrating Steve Slaton fumble, they inserted Ryan Moats, who tore Buffalo apart in a dominant second-half rushing performance. Moats could get most of the carries this week.

The Colts are dealing with a rash of injuries. Strong safety Bob Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson are lost for the season, and veteran cornerback Kelvin Hayden also is out.

Manning and Matt Schaub should put on a show. Schaub leads the league with 2,342 yards passing, and Manning is second with 2,227 yards.

Remember last season's fantastic finish when the Colts scored 21 points in a two-minute span late in the fourth quarter to snatch a win at Houston? This could be an entertaining game, with the team that has the ball last winning.

My analysis of the rest of today's Week 9 schedule:

? Kansas City at Jacksonville (-61/2): Fantasy football owners will be watching this game to see what type of numbers Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew compiles. Jones-Drew is sixth in the league with 640 yards rushing. There is no semblance of a running attack anymore for the Chiefs, and Larry Johnson and his salty tongue have been given the week off. Jacksonville has not covered in its past seven games as a home favorite. It's tough to support either side.

? Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati: The Ravens snapped a three-game losing streak with a 30-7 thumping of Denver last week. They are looking to exact revenge on the Bengals for a last-second loss Oct. 11. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco's maturity has been impressive, and emerging running back Ray Rice has given the offense an imposing, balanced attack. Cincinnati comes off a bye and can take a major step toward the playoffs with a win and the series sweep. But I'm a Baltimore believer. The Bengals, while a nice story, still have plenty to prove.

? Washington at Atlanta (-91/2): The Falcons looked good in defeat Monday night at New Orleans. In reality, they beat themselves with costly turnovers. The Redskins lost the one decent player they had on offense when tight end Chris Cooley broke an ankle. Where are Washington's points going to come from now?

? Green Bay (-10) at Tampa Bay: The Packers might take out their Brett Favre frustrations on the woeful Buccaneers, who are 1-6 against the spread. Unless running back Cadillac Williams has a huge day, Tampa Bay will be sputtering on offense again. Green Bay should roll if its offensive line protects Aaron Rodgers, who has been sacked a league-high 31 times.

? Arizona at Chicago (-3): The words consistency, Cardinals and Bears don't often collide in the same sentence. Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler each are capable of being brilliant or atrocious. With wideout Anquan Boldin hobbled, it would behoove Arizona to get its offense established on the ground, as rookie Chris "Beanie" Wells continues to get more touches. The running game for both teams might be the determining factor if the weather is dicey. The Cardinals' run defense was exposed last week, so Matt Forte could give the Bears the edge.

? Miami at New England (-101/2): This is where the Wildcat offense was born. The Dolphins rolled it out at New England last year, and for one rare instance Patriots coach Bill Belichick had no answers. Don't expect that to be the case again. The Patriots are coming off a bye after a visit to London. The biggest benefit for New England might be the two weeks of rest for receiver Wes Welker, who has played well lately while banged up. This is not college football, but revenge is a factor here, and I lean to the Patriots.

? Carolina at New Orleans (-131/2): It took the Panthers seven games to realize they have a solid running attack. The tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gave Carolina the best record in the NFC last year. Instead of Jake Delhomme throwing darts to the opposing secondary, the Panthers ran the ball down the Cardinals' throats last week. At some point, the pressure of being unbeaten will start to wear heavy on the Saints' shoulders, and this is a division foe getting a ton of points.

? Detroit at Seattle (-10): The Seahawks (2-5) are a mystery, losing five of their past six games. Matt Hasselbeck is playing hurt, but he should be able to hit some big pass plays against a leaky Lions defense. There's not much to like about this game.

? Tennessee at San Francisco (-31/2): Vince Young finally got a start, and the Titans finally posted a win. Tennessee enters this one on its first positive note of the season, and the 49ers have sort of hit the skids. San Francisco's three straight losses aren't a death knell because it resides in the mediocre NFC West. The 49ers' losses have come at the hands of quality teams -- Minnesota, Atlanta, Houston and Indianapolis. I look for coach Mike Singletary to right the ship and take care of business against a weaker team.

? San Diego at New York Giants (-5): The Chargers heading east is a recipe for disaster, but the Giants have fallen on hard times, so that muddies the water just a bit. New York's defense is not scaring anyone, and Eli Manning has had a lost look on his face. Run and stop the run is the simple mantra the Giants need to adopt, and the wins will follow.

? Dallas at Philadelphia (-3): It's usually a shootout when these two get together, and why think this game will be different? Miles Austin has given the Cowboys a consistent downfield weapon. Donovan McNabb has been taking advantage of a new toy at his disposal -- a solid receiving corps. DeSean Jackson is a special player, rookie Jeremy Maclin is starting to contribute, and Brent Celek is becoming one of the best weapons in the league at tight end. Look over the total of 49.


Brian Blessing, project manager for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, can be reached at bblessing@lvsc.com. Hear the LVSC oddsmakers on Sportsbook Radio, weekdays at 3 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM) and Sirius 98.

 

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Cowboys, Eagles flying high

Cowboys, Eagles flying high

Cowboys, Eagles flying high

Handicapper: NFC East foes to soar over total

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

The resurgence of the Dallas Cowboys has something to do with quarterback Tony Romo, but it's due mostly to the emergence of wide receiver Miles Austin.

The Cowboys' three-game win streak has coincided with Austin's breakout performances against Kansas City, Atlanta and Seattle. Dallas is second in the NFL in total offense, but its defense ranks 22nd.

Since quarterback Donovan McNabb's return from a rib injury, the Philadelphia Eagles' offense also has been flying higher. McNabb has a surplus of playmakers with wideouts DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin and running backs LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook.

Dallas visits Philadelphia in a key NFC East game tonight, and The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall said all signs are pointing over the total of 49.

Five of the past seven and 11 of 16 series meetings since 2001 went over the total. The Eagles are 6-1 over the total this season, and the Cowboys are 5-2 over.

"Don't expect anything different in this game, not with the Cowboys discovering a new home-run threat in Austin, who is helping the Cowboys spread the field much as Terrell Owens used to do, distorting defenses and opening up the field nicely for Romo," Marshall said.

Dallas has been helped the past two weeks with running back Felix Jones back in the lineup. And Philadelphia expects to have Westbrook available.

The past three in this series at Philadelphia have totaled 50 or more points. Marshall, 6-2 with recommended totals plays this season, highlights technical notes on other Week 9 games:

? Kansas City at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) as hosts since last year. Jacksonville has no covers in its past seven games as a home favorite. Edge: Chiefs.

? Green Bay at Tampa Bay: The Packers are 2-0 ATS as road favorites this season and 17-6 ATS in the past 23 on the road. The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS this season and have dropped six straight ATS at home. Edge: Packers.

? Detroit at Seattle: The Lions are 0-3 ATS away this season. The Lions are 2-1 over the total away this season and 12-3 over in their past 15 on the road. Edge: Seahawks, Over.

? Tennessee at San Francisco: 49ers coach Mike Singletary is 5-1-1 ATS in his past seven at home and 10-3-2 in the past 15 overall. Edge: 49ers.

? San Diego at New York Giants: Chargers coach Norv Turner is 9-3 over the total in the past 12 but 3-6 ATS in the past nine on the road. The Giants are 6-2 over this season. Edge: Giants, Over.

 

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Three reasons to like TEXANS-COLTS OVER (49)

Three reasons to like TEXANS-COLTS OVER (49)

BETWEEN THE LINES


Three reasons to like TEXANS-COLTS OVER (49)

The Colts average 403 yards of offense a game, and the Texans average 374 yards.

Defensively, both give up nearly as much yardage, and the Colts have several key injuries on defense.

The Colts have topped 30 points in four of their past five games, and the Texans failed to score 20 points only once -- in their opener.

Three reasons to like Chargers-Giants over (48)

Here are two defenses that have underachieved this season. Both secondaries should be put to the test.

In their past three games, the Giants have given up an average of 37 points.

The Chargers are not much better, giving up more than 30 points three times, and four of their past six have gone over the total.

LAST WEEK: 2-0

SEASON: 8-8

 

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Early Division Battles


As we near the midway point of the season, divisional matchups take on even more meaning. Winning an intra-division contest can help get you a better seed in the playoffs, while losing can force you to make early tee times. There are two early games that have piqued my interest this week in the NFL. Let?s take a look at them.

Ravens at Bengals ? 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS

First place in the AFC North is on the line when the Ravens head to the shores of the Ohio River to play Cincinnati (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) this weekend.

The Bengals are coming into this contest after an impressive 45-10 win over Chicago as two-point home pups. Carson Palmer seemingly couldn?t miss against the Bears? secondary, completing 20 of 24 pass attempts for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson had a hell of an outing against his former team by rushing for 189 yards and a score on 37 carries.

Benson has been a major reason why Cincy has had such a turnaround this season. Last year, the Bengals were ranked 29th in the league with 95.0 rushing yards per game and the fewest touchdowns on the ground with six. Through seven fixtures in 2009, Cincinnati has scored six rushing touchdowns and ninth with 127.7 rushing YPG.

Cincinnati has also been great on the defensive side of the ball. They rank sixth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and fifth in rushing defense (88.0). Antwan Odom has helped keep quarterback on their toes by picking up eight sacks this season.

Baltimore (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) is certainly feeling full of itself after knocking the Broncos from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 30-7 victory as a four-point home ?chalk.? Ray Rice had a quality showing with 84 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The Ravens? defense was the true reason why they dominated Denver. The Broncs converted just three of their 13 third-downs and allowed 200 total yards.





The win over Denver snapped a three-game losing skid that the Ravens had been on, where they lost by a combined 14 points. That stretch includes a last minute 17-14 loss to the Bengals that was a tough pill to swallow.

Despite losing to Cincinnati at home, the Ravens are listed as three-point road favorites with a total of 43 ?.

?I think this is one of the toughest games on the board,? says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. ?Had Baltimore not beat Denver they would likely have been the underdog in this contest. The Bengals own four victories against teams with winning records and should benefit from a week of rest.?

?The bottom line is that the Ravens are favored because of the revenge factor - they lost to Cincinnati as 9 ?-point home favorites a month ago. A customary eight-point swing between games would bring them in at -1 ?. Add another 1 ?-points for the revenge and thus the line.?

Bodog?s Richard Gardner gives us his take on why the set the line as they did. ?Players have been betting the Ravens all year, and this one of those games where we have to take in the bettor?s long term view of the two teams and the fact that some see it as a revenge game. We know bettors will expect a close game, but we know that bettors will see it as must win for the Ravens and bet who they consider to be the better team regardless of venue.?

This series has recently been the domain of the road team as the visitors are 3-1 SU, but just 2-2 ATS. The ?under? went 3-1 during that stretch as well.

What is good to know is that the Bengals have been good as home pups coming off of a bye as they?ve gone 3-2-1 SU and 4-2 in their last six games.

Texans at Colts ? 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS

While the race for the AFC South doesn?t appear to be in doubt, this contest could be considered a slow changing of the guard. At least that?s one way to spin it.

Indianapolis (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) won its 16th consecutive regular season game last week, but had to earn it in an 18-14 decision over the 49ers as a 13-point home favorite. Peyton Manning may have connected on 31 of his 48 passes for 347 yards, but he looked out of sync for much of this game. Joseph Addai took care of the scoring as he tossed a 22-yard scoring pass to Reggie Wayne to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

Despite the close win last week, the Colts have been coldly effective on offense. They are averaging 28.1 PPG, while next to last in time of possession, averaging 29:36 per game.

Things didn?t look good for Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) when they opened the season with they lost three of its first five decisions. The Texans have now won three straight games, covering the spread in two of those tilts.

The Texans had their way against Buffalo as 3 ?-point road faves in a 31-10 victory. Houston didn?t get into the end zone via the air, but did find pay dirt three times on the ground. What was surprising is that Steve Slaton wasn?t doing the scoring. Slaton was benched after he fumbled the ball away for the fifth time this year. His replacement, Ryan Moats, may have grabbed the starting job as he rushed 23 times for 126 yards and three scores.

All was not sunshine and lollipops for Gary Kubiak?s club last week. The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for the rest of the season. So does the loss of Daniels? 519 receiving yards and five touchdowns factor into the sportsbooks into making Indy a 9 ?-point home ?chalk??

?The combination of the Owen Daniels injury and the fact that Indy's high powered offense sputtered definitely had an impact on the line dropping down from 10 ?,? says Gardner. ?To most teams, a spread of 9 ? would be big, but for Colts and the way they were playing prior to last week, this is a big deal, especially with 10 being a relevant number.?

Even though Houston has been team that was down in the dumps for much of its history, they?ve played the Colts tough. The Texans are 1-8 SU, but 5-4 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings with Indy. The ?over? is on an 8-0 run between these AFC South clubs.

Something else to keep in mind is that Indianapolis is that they are 13-2 SU, but just 5-9-1 ATS when listed as a 9 ?-point favorite over the last four seasons.

 

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Total Talk - Week 9

Total Talk - Week 9

Total Talk - Week 9


As we enter the midway point of the year, we haven?t seen any serious league trends toward the ?over? or the ?under? so far. After eight weeks, the ?over? stands at 60-56-1 (52%) and that includes a 7-6 ?under? run in Week 8, which saw a little bit of everything. Seven of the 13 games played last week saw the final outcome decided by double digits. Of those decisions, the ?over? went 4-3.

Close calls usually dictate lower-scoring affairs, which in turn create ?under? winners. That was the case this past weekend as the ?under? went 4-2 in games decided by 10 or less. The two games that jumped ?over? were the Saints-Falcons battle on MNF and the Jets-Dolphins divisional clash.

The MNF ?over? run has been incredible (see below) this season and last so we won?t harp on that too much, but the AFC East rivalry between Miami and New York was tough to stomach for some, especially this writer. I played the ?under? based on an old vice versa (see last week?s TT) system with totals. With the score knotted at 3-3 after 30 minutes, it was time to relax with the kids for 90 minutes before the next session. Foolishly, I checked an update on my phone and saw 24-19 in the third, which just made me laugh.

Two things you cannot handicap in the NFL are turnovers and penalties but I?d like to add special team touchdowns after that loss. Six points at the half and 49 in the second. To think I lost a couple teasers with a number of 50.5 really stuck the knife deeper.

Round Two

Even though the Vice Versa total system lost on the Jets-Dolphins game last weekend, it did cash tickets with the Titans-Jaguars total. This week, we have another divisional matchup that fits the past history criteria but the number has gone up.

Cincinnati upset Baltimore 17-14 in on Oct. 11 as a 9 ?-point road underdog and the combined 31 points fell short of the 42-point closing total. Looking back at this contest, it?s easy to see that both teams left a lot of points off the board. Cincinnati and Baltimore both had multiple turnovers in the red zone plus one field goal was blocked.




The Bengals racked up 402 yards on the Ravens defense, which still gets a lot of undeserving hype according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Pat Hawkins. ?The unit is a lot of older and even though they have some big names in Lewis and Reed, they?re not playing at the same level as last year. Teams have been able to go up and down the field on them and it?s fair to say that they?ve been more lucky than good this year,? said Hawkins.

Last year, the Ravens only gave up 20-plus points in five games. Through eight contests this season, the defense has allowed 24-plus point four times. Fortunately for Baltimore, the offense (28.4 PPG) has been stellar behind QB Joe Flacco.

In the 10 previous meetings, the total has gone 5-5. However, this week?s number of 43.5 is the highest total posted during this span, which tells me something.

Extra Week = Extra Points

The argument of rest vs. rust usually comes up with the bye week and the numbers posted this year have shown that the extra week has helped the offense. Twenty-four of the 32 clubs in the NFL have had their bye week already and 18 have played in games after the bye with six more on tap this weekend.

The scoring average for the 18 teams after the bye is an eye opening 26.6 PPG. We delved into the numbers a little further, took out the highest (Saints, 48) and lowest (Broncos, 7) and still came up with an average of 26.4 PPG.

So what does it mean in terms of totals? The ?over? has gone 9-9 in those games but that was helped by a 5-1 ?under? roll last weekend. Of those five winners, you can say it went 3-1 because the Ravens-Broncos and Jaguars-Titans matchups featured matchups between teams both off byes. So, let?s say the ?over? has gone 9-7 with bye teams.

This week, six clubs will look to keep the scoring trend going.

Cincinnati: The Bengals welcome the Ravens in an AFC North battle (see above).

Kansas City: The Chiefs? offense under head coach Todd Haley has been anything but exciting this year. The offense (15 PPG) has looked awful under QB Matt Cassel but they will be playing a Jags? defense (25.3 PPG) that has been suspect this year.

New England: After watching the Patriots put up 59 and 35 in their last two games, Tom Brady and company probably didn?t need the bye to get in gear. The offense is clicking right now and they face a Dolphins? defense that has given up 27, 46 and 25 points in the last three and has a raw secondary.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers head to Denver on Monday Night Football (see below).

Tampa Bay: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman will get his chance to lead an anemic offense (13.7 PPG) against a Packers? defense (19.7 PPG) that has been opportunistic. The Bucs do have some weapons on offense, which makes you hope they don?t handcuff Freeman on Sunday.

Washington: The Jim Zorn days are winding down and nobody knows who?s calling the shots in D.C. anymore. Will the extra week help the Redskins? Washington hasn?t scored all year (13.7 PPG) and its third-down conversion (29.1%) rate is gross. Facing an Atlanta team that?s given up 16 PPG in its home games this year doesn?t look good for Zorn ? again.

UNDER the Lights?

The ?over? on MNF has gone 8-1 (89%) this year but this week?s AFC showdown between Pittsburgh and Denver could make total players rethink their bets.

The Broncos have seen six of their seven games go ?under? the number this year and the lone game that did eclipse the closing total was their 34-23 win at San Diego on MNF. In case you forget, 21 of the 57 points posted came from special team touchdowns. If you take away the 34 in that game, Denver is only averaging 17.7 PPG.

Denver and Pittsburgh didn?t meet in the 2008 season but they squared off three times in the three previous years, which included a playoff game. In those three games, the ?over? has cashed in all three and very easily too. Plus the numbers (38, 36.5, 41) were in the same range as this week?s total of 39.5.

Baltimore exposed Denver last weekend and held them to 200 yards and seven points. It?s definitely safe to say that Pitt has the better defense too. The Steelers are ranked first against the run (76.6 YPG) and have had a knack of getting to the quarterback (21 sacks). Denver has been a good run-stopper (86.1 YPG) as well, plus they?ve tallied 23 sacks.

You might want to watch the first half of this game and then play the second-half ?under? considering Denver hasn?t allowed a second-half point in its three games from Invesco Field at Mile High this year.

Fearless Predictions

Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda?Anybody and everybody who bets always remember the losers more than the winners and that will never change. Last week?s Jets-Dolphins ?under? loser cost us some money in our teaser and prevented the $300 sweep. We hit the two totals, which pushes us to 8-6 (+140) on the year, but the teasers are 2-5 (-300). Bases on one-unit plays, we?re down $160 and we only have nine weeks to turn a profit for the postseason. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Dolphins-Patriots 47

Chad Henne and the Dolphins? offense were humbled last week but since the former Michigan standout has started for Miami, the ?over? has gone 4-0. Now they face a Patriots? defense that isn?t that great, so some points will be posted by the Fins but not as many as New England. Tom Brady and company have been on a roll lately and the rest should help them even more. In the last five seasons, the Pats have averaged 33.3 PPG after the bye week. If New England can convert TDs instead of FGs, don?t be surprised to see a 40-spot in this one.

Best Under: Steelers-Broncos 39.5

All things usually balance out in the long run and while the betting public has made serious cash on the MNF ?over? run, it ends this week in Colorado. Two great defenses will go head-to-head against two teams that need to run the football. Look for a tight game played to the buzzer with the winner claiming a 16-13 victory.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Dolphins-Patriots Over 38
Texans-Colts Over 39
Bengals-Ravens Over 34.5

 

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Coaches on the Hot Seat

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Coaches on the Hot Seat


Here's our update on the NFL coaching "hot seat" as we move into November...
Jim Zorn, Washington...Already, owner Dan Snyder (working through GM Vinny Cerrato) has humiliated Zorn, removing his play-calling duties and handing them over to veteran assistant coach Sherm Lewis, who wasn't even on the scene at Redskins Park until later September. The "neutered" version of Zorn continues to lead the Skins, but with each mounting defeat the chances of the former Seahawk QB lasting the season seem to diminish. Zorn and Cerrato might have sealed their own fates by not seeking necessary upgrades for their offense in the offseason while also not preventing damaging deterioration along the OL. The defense remains functional but it cannot overcome an "O" scoring just 13.5 ppg. The rumor mill is already whirring in Washington; one of the juiciest making the rounds is that former Denver HC Mike Shanahan could be interested, especially if Snyder is offering a deal in the $10 million per year range that includes all say in player personnel matters. Stay tuned.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville...The Jags' fortunes are fading fast and so might be the prospects for Del Rio, who faces a crucial test of winnable games in the next month. But after losing the first of what would seem to be a manageable stretch against the previously-winless Titans, upcoming games vs. the likes of the Chiefs and Bills can hardly be considered gimmes. It hasn't helped that Del Rio, a supposed defensive expert, has watched his stop unit flounder, barely registering aa pass rush and ranking a sorry 30th vs. the pass, while the offense has been mostly reduced to a series of big plays by RB Maurice Jones-Drew. With local interest in the team waning, owner Wayne Weaver might be forced to make a headline-grabbing hire to revive sagging interest.





Dick Jauron, Buffalo...The Bills squeezed out a couple of unlikely wins in recent weeks, but Sunday's 31-10 home loss vs. the Texans underlines Buffalo's plight and what will likely be Jauron's Orchard Park epitaph: a punchless offense. Starting as many as four first-year players on the OL in recent weeks, the Buffalo attack is having trouble generating even 200 yards per game, and the presence of a fading Terrell Owens (who got temporarily involved in the offense with a 29-yard scoring run vs. Houston) hasn't helped.

Tom Cable, Oakland...Given Al Davis' track record since the Raiders returned to Oakland in 1995, even Bill Walsh in his heyday would have felt uncomfortable these days in the Silver and Black. Mike White, two years in charge; Joe Bugel, one year; Jon Gruden, four years, left after back-to-back playoff appearances (and winning tthe Super Bowl with the Bucs in the year after he left); Bill Callahan, two years, canned just a year after taking the Raiders to the Super Bowl (where he lost to Gruden's Bucs); Norv Turner, two years before getting the heave-ho; Art Shell, one disastrous "not-so-Back-To-The Future" season in 2006 before getting the boot; Lane Kiffin, one season plus another four games in '08 before getting tossed aside in almost tabloid-like fashion; and now Cable, 20 games into his regime, the same amount of games Kiffin coached for Davis. And some AFC West observers are a bit surprised that Davis hasn't already hit the eject button on Cable, who dodged a bullet from the Napa District Attorney's office when no charges were pressed resulting from his summer controversy involving assistant coach Randy Hanson, and now dealing with well-publicized accusations of abuse from his former wife and girlfriend. Come to think of it, maybe Cable fits the Raider image better than we imagined.



Eric Mangini, Cleveland...Things have gone so pear-shaped in Cleveland that one has to wonder if Mangini's status is in jeopardy, even in his first year on the job. The on-field product has been woeful, with the Browns failing to score an offensive TD in half of their games and posting just one win, a 6-3 root canal job over Buffalo. Along the way, QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson (neither of whom posting great numbers...especially Anderson, completing 33% of his passes since taking over as the starter), have hardly flourished while dealing with Mangini's mind games. The front office (and Mangini) have come under fire for benching Quinn, causing some to speculate that the move was cost-related (Quinn now unlikely to achieve specified "escalators" in his contract that are performance and appearance-based). Moreover, Mangini's hand-picked GN, George Kokinis, hired in January, left the team under somewhat mysterious circumstances earlier this week. AFC North observers take this as a clear warning sign from the Lerners that Mangini's job is also likely on the line as we approach the last half of the season. One thing is certain, and it's that whatever honeymoon Mangini had in Cleveland is now definitely over.

Lovie Smith, Chicago...While most of the preseason chatter centered upon Denver and its new HC Josh McDaniels after the controversial Jay Cutler trade, it's the Bears braintrust, including Lovie, that might have more to worry about. While the Broncos raced to six straight wins out of the gate prior to their first loss of the season last weekend, the Bears have been inconsistent, and Cutler unconvincing, in an uneven 4-3 start. Moreover, Kyle Orton has been outperforming Cutler, at least to this point, making the trade for the moment look even worse for the Bears. Other factors have contributed to Chicago's inconsistency, including key injuries on defense (Brian Urlacher KO'd for the season on opening night at Green Bay), a suspect 2ndary and offensive line, and a largely unproven receiving corps. Cutler, however, was supposed to have provided the Bears with the franchise QB they have lacked for generations, and many NFC North insiders believe that Lovie (as well as GM Jerry Angelo) need to get the Bears to the playoffs or else face the consequences. Chicago is still in position to make a postseason run, but if it doesn't, all Windy City eyes are going to be on the McCaskeys, and if they might indeed swallow the remainder of Lovie and Angelo's contracts.

Wade Phillips, Dallas...Cowboys coaches not named Parcells are always on Jerry Jones' short leash. And even though Dallas has looked better in recent weeks, Jones has not given Phillips more than lukewarm endorsements, only going as far as saying that Wade was "the right man...to coach our defense." NFC East onlookers believe that Jones painted himself into a corner last season when all but announcing that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett was the heir apparent to Phillips' job, but the way the Cowboys collapsed down the stretch in '08 made it nearly impossible for Jones to promote Garrett under those circumstances. Keep an eye on this situation, because sources say there is little or no chance Phillips would be retained if the Cowboys don't make the playoffs. And even if they do, but don't make the Super Bowl, Jones would be in a better position to finally promote Garrett. There's also the chance Jones could blow up the staff completely and look outside the organization for help of Dallas missed the postseason entirely.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee...Is it possible Fisher's long run with the Oilers/Titans (since 1994) could be coming to a close? AFC South sources are keeping their eyes on the situation and wondering if owner Bud Adams' public "suggestion" that Vince Young take over at QB might finally push Fisher over the edge. Such proclamations from owners never sit well with coaches, and this situation has been an especially touchy one for Fisher, who yanked Young and went with vet Kerry Collins last season when the Titans won their first 10 games and made the playoffs. This season, Tennessee (also ravaged by injuries) lost its first six games while Collins regressed, so the move to Young wasn't completely unexpected (although we're sure Fisher didn't like the way it all came down). Young, forced upon Fisher by Adams at the expense of Jay Cutler in the 2006 Draft, could eventually be the straw that broke the camel's back in Nashville, although VY did lead the Titans to their first win of the year last week against the Jags. Some observers also questioned Fisher's judgment (and perhaps a sign of his growing discomfort in Nashville) with the recent Peyton Manning "jersey controversy" when Fisher donned a Manning Colt jersey at a recent luncheon honoring Tony Dungy, and joked that he "wanted to look like a winner." Innocent humor, perhaps, but coming right after that 59-0 loss at New England, Fisher's timing was a bit curious. Let's also remember that Fisher wold be in demand for any coaching opening in the league. Might Chicago (where Fisher once played) be a possibility?

 

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Where the action is: NFL Week 9's biggest line moves

Where the action is: NFL Week 9's biggest line moves

Where the action is: NFL Week 9's biggest line moves
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Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 41.5)

Opening Line: -6.5, 42

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Jags

Comments: This will be our least bet game of the day. There?s nothing really interesting in this matchup. Chiefs RB Larry Johnson is out (Disciplinary)

Entering the Jags in a teaser to bring the line down to -0.5 or less is the only real action happening.

Fact: The Chiefs have zero rushing touchdowns this season.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 45)

Opening Line: -3, 43

Wise Action: Over 43

Where the early action is: 94 percent - Ravens

Comments: The Bengals won the last time these teams played in Baltimore 17-14 in Week 5. And this week they are home underdogs against the same team. That seems strange, but that?s because there are more tangibles in this line than stats.

The bettors are all over Baltimore -2.5 in this one, as well as putting them into a teaser at +3.5 or more. We might have to move that line back on to the key number 3 if the action doesn?t balance out soon.

The wise guys are betting this will be a fairly high-scoring game.

Fact: Ravens QB Joe Flacco started a streak of 54 passes without an interception, since his season-high two interception against the Bengals back in Week 5.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-8.5, 49)

Opening Line: -8.5, 48

Where the early action is: 70 percent - Texans

Comments: The undefeated Colts have a fairly big number to cover at home this week against a streaking Houston team. Houston has won 3 in a row and has looked very solid in the process.

Usually the Colts get all the action regardless of the point-spread, but this week we are currently taking more Straight bet action on the Texans, but are loading up on Colts teasers at -2.5 or better.

This is a very tough game to comfortably book, and we?ll look to get out of this game with as little damage as possible. Expect this line to drop if the bettors continue to see this spread as a bit too high.

Fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning has six 300 yards passing games out of seven this season.

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 41)

Opening Line: -10, 42

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Falcons

Comments: Atlanta needs a game like this to get back on track. They have a fairly soft three games after this. Atlanta has allowed an average 36 point in their last two games and the Redskins only average about 17 point per game. This is a good practice game for them.

The bettors are heavily backing the Falcons in this one and even more so in teasers.

Fact: The Falcons are 10-1 at home under second-year coach Mike Smith

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10, 44)

Opening Line: -10, 44

Where the early action is: 98 percent - Packers

Comments: All Green Bay here. This is another automatic fade against the Bucs. The Packers are pretty much in a must-win situation. To not show up and lose to the winless Bucs this week could slam the door on their playoff hopes. It just isn?t going to happen. The bettors have Green Bay in every hookup imaginable. This is a huge root for the house, look for this like to move off of 10.

Fact: The Bucs have made a total of two field goals all season.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44.5)

Opening Line: -3, 44.5

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Cardinals

Comments: The Cardinals are a hard team to figure, they play better on the road. The Bears are extremely inconsistent. The opening line only represents home-field advantage and has drop off the key number 3 due to the lop-sided action. Putting Arizona in a teaser at +8.5 or better is also a very popular bet.

Fact: Cardinals QB Kurt Warner has 11 interceptions and 11 touchdown passes this season.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5, 46.5)

Opening Line: -10.5, 47

Where the early action is: 50 - 50 split

Comments: This is solid line and will likely stay where it is. The point-spread action is light, but split. The teaser action is loaded with Patriots -4.5 or better. It will be interesting to see what the Patriots do to Miami?s wildcat offence. Our gut feeling is it won?t be much of a contest.

The total has already dropped some, and might drop even more.

Fact: The Dolphins have averaged only 1.7 yards on 21 wildcat attempts the past two games.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-14, 51.5)

Opening Line: -14.5, 52

Where the early action is: 50-50 split

Comments: The undefeated Saints carry yet another monster point-spread. The bettors aren?t really touching this pointspread, the ones that are, are betting both sides. Teasers are the big bet in this one to bring the Saints down to -8 or less.

The Saints are coming off a big win on Monday night against the Falcons, the only game they haven?t covered this year. So the question remains, how long can the Saints go without a let-down game? Check the odds on the Saints going undefeated for the rest of the regular season NFL Side Bet of The Day.

Fact: The Saints have five touchdowns off of interceptions this season, which ties their club record set back in 1998

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 42)

Opening Line: -10, 43

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Seahawks

Comments: No one is backing the banged up Lions in Seattle this week, no matter how high this line gets. It?s all Seahawks every way possible in this one. Teasers are huge here to bring Seattle down to -4 or less.

The total is heavily lop-sided to the under. Look for that number to drop even more.

Fact: Detroit?s rookie QB Matt Stafford has a passer rating of 61.7

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 40.5)

Opening Line: -5.5, 40.5

Wise Action: Titans +5.5

Where the early action is: 67 percent ? 49ers

Comments: This is the only game the wise guys bet the spread on. That moved the line down to 4, but we are getting heavy on the Niners. This is a tough game to read, when in doubt go with the wise groups. This line will likely stay at 4, regardless of where majority of the action ends up.

This could end up being a big time running game, the total hasn?t moved yet but we could see some movement to it closer to game time.

Fact: 49ers RB Frank Gore has three touchdown runs of more than 60 yards this season.

San Diego Chargers at New York Giants (-5, 48)

Opening Line: -4.5, 47.5

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Chargers

Comments: Not a lot of action on this game yet, but the action we are getting is fairly split. The Giants normally would be getting most of the bets on a game like this, but they haven?t looked good in the past 3 games.

The Giants are taking more teaser action at +1 or better and the total is getting all over action. Look for the total to move up even more closer to game time.

This is the first time Rivers and Manning have started against each other; it?ll be interesting to see who shows up in this one.

Fact: The Giants average 26.5 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Chargers rank 10th with an average of 26.4 points per game.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

Opening Line: -3, 47.5

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Eagles

Comments: This will be one of the most bet on games. It?s the last game of the day, which generally draws more bets and it?s also great matchup. This should be a big-play game by both teams. The total moved up to 50 points late in the week.

It seems the bettors have gotten past the fact the Eagles lost to the Raiders back in week six. 75 percent of the straight bet action is on Eagles and 98 percent of the teaser action is also on the Eagles +3 and on.

It?s early, and there is a full board of games ahead of this one, but it looks like the house is going to need Dallas pretty big. That could be cause for a line move off the key number three.

Fact: Donovan McNabb has thrown only one interception in 133 attempts this season.

 

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Gone with the wind: NFL Week 9 weather report

Gone with the wind: NFL Week 9 weather report

Gone with the wind: NFL Week 9 weather report

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-3, 44.5)

The game should be a pleasant 60 degrees at kickoff, but expect a stiff breeze in the Windy City. Weather.com is calling for a steady, 11-mph wind that could have an impact on both teams. Bears signal caller Jake Cutler has been anything but consistent this year and Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner was playing soft toss with defenders last week. This game will boil down to the Cardinals stiff run defense against a bounding Bears running game.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 42)

These teams should luck out and avoid any showers this weekend, but they can expect to play in at least a 10-mph wind that could bother both passing games. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is still learning the pro game as a rookie and Seattle signal caller Matt Hasselbeck has been dinged up for weeks. If Seattle gets its ground game going, this one could get ugly quick.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5, 43.5)

The only thing that may shut down Green Bay?s passing game in this one is a 17-mph wind that could wreck havoc for a team reliant on the deep ball. Tampa Bay has one of the worst defenses in the league and anything that could limit the Packers would be huge to help them cover the spread and keep the total low.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5, 41.5)

This game already figures to be ugly, but could be even worse than anticipated, as the forecast calls for a gusty 15-mph wind that could keep both teams passes grounded for most of the afternoon. The Jaguars' running game appeared to finally hit its stride last week, and if this turns into ground battle, the home team figures to have an edge in a low-scoring affair.