Will Illinois make the Final Four?

[Scott4USC]

Here is a prop bet Pinnacle is offering.

Will Illinois make the Final Four?

Yes +102
No -112

Facts

*Illinois is undefeated and currently #1 team in country. Impressive.

*Illinois is currently the favorite or the 2nd favorite to win it all (by wide margin) according to all sportsbooks. Obviously they have to make the final 4 to win it all.

*Minus a complee meltdown, Illinois will be earning the #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney.

Wouldn't you think Illinois has a great chance at making the Elite 8? I am not talking final four. I am talking about making the elite 8. If Illinois makes the elite 8, great chance they will be favored 3pts or higher. You easily could hedge your bet and do it in different ways. ML, +pts and get middle, or even wait till 2h. You also could "gamble" and leave the bet "as is."

In my opinion, the only gambling your doing is Illinois staying injury free the rest of the season and Big 10 tourney.

I am VERY confident Illinois makes the elite 8. From there you can hedge. Hell, if you want you could start hedging once Illinois makes the sweet 16 where they prob. will be even bigger favorites. Depends on how much you want to cut into your potential profits.

Is it just me or is there a lot of value in this bet if you go with the mindset of possibly hedging once Illinois makes the elite 8? To me, the only gambling part is Illinois staying injury free and whether to hedge or not at the elite 8. I am confident Illinois makes the elite 8. From that point on it might pose some problems.

Only thing stopping me from pounding this is I already have over 4k on future NCAA bets and Illinois and UNC are my 2 biggest bets to win it all.

 

[Sun Tzu]

No No No

 

[volfan]

nope....... :nutkick

 

[Scott4USC]

No No No

So do you think Illinois loses in 1st round? 2nd round? Sweet 16? What are the odds of that happening? :mj03: You just need Illinois to make elite 8 and then you can handicap it further on whether you want to hedge, middle, wait till 2h, or just leave it as is. You also "could" hedge some of it at the sweet 16 if you are not confident. Injuries could really screw up your bet, but we are gambling, aren't we?

 

[johnnyonthespot]

IF Illinois ends up with the overall #1, then it is a pretty solid bet. I would wait till after the Iowa game this weekend to make it though. I know that Iowa is fairly toothless without Pierce, but Illinois has a long history of playing poorly there (last year notwithstanding). If they get through Saturday, then they have a real good chance of the overall #1, since the only team they would be competing against for the Midwest spot would be Kansas, who have 2 losses already.

I would start hedging once they get to the sweet 16; almost every year a #1 gets ousted there. However, if you already have big bets on them to win it all I don't know how much more you're gaining by this.

Obviously you can tell by my avatar that I am biased, and I personally probably won't lay much down on them but only because I'm going to be heartbroken when/if they lose before the Final Four and I don't need the added aggravation of losing bank on top of that.

I don't understand why Sun would claim this is not a good bet to break even on at the very worst. If he or anyone else wants to give me even odds that Illinois loses in the first 2 rounds I will do that in a heartbeat. That is essentially what is happening here.

GL!

 

[Sun Tzu]

If the bet is whether Illinois makes the final four that isnt a bet as to whether they lose in the first 2 rounds, it would be 4.

 

[Beebs]

I like the bet and if I am not mistaken a loss would make them a stronger contender to win it all based on recent history

 

[gjn23]

if they face the right type of team in the sweet 16 (4-5 seed) who plays with the same mindset AND has an inside presence (hello utah) they could miss the elite 8 all together.

once they hit the elite 8 they also could face another top team as a #2 seed (unc-wake-kansas-kentucky-arizona) who could easily beat them.

not sure where the value is in making this bet now vs waiting until the brackets are drawn in 3 weeks.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Beebs -
Understand what you're saying in regards to history but the special case here is what a huge advantage it is for Illinois to draw the overall top seed. Given that Kansas is ahead of Illinois as far as RPI (even after the Tech loss), even one loss before the Big Ten tourney could jeopardize the overall #1.

Sun -
I understand that the bet is for 4 wins, but Scott was stipulating that it was a good bet based on being able to hedge starting with the 3rd round and I was just surprised that you were so emphatic that it was not a good bet. After crunching the numbers a little bit, Illinois would really have to make the Elite 8 before you could guarantee it to be profitable (unless they ended up playing an 11 or 12 seed in the sweet 16), but that means you are getting even money at betting if they'll make the sweet 16 or not, and I think that's pretty good.

I really think that you cannot overstate what a huge advantage it would be for Illinois to be playing this round in Chicago. There are tons of Illinois alums up here and with a shortage of things to cheer about lately in Chicago sports (not counting the recent Bulls resurgence), this city is incredibly behind this team and the crowds will be almost exclusively Illini fans. I've also been to the AllState Arena a number of times. It is fairly small and when you get a packed house in there it is really rocking! Anyways, that's why I'm real confident that if they end up with the overall #1 this is a good bet. If they slip to another region, though, then all bets are off.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

gjn -
If memory serves me correctly, I think that you will have to lay wood on any #1 seed once the brackets come out.

Sorry to hijack your thread Scotty!

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

Scott

personally I think it's a great bet. IMO they deserve the number one ranking. Yet, there are a few teams that I think could beat them on any given night. Carolina being one of them. With that said, unless illinois loses to penn st. or someone in their opening game in the big ten tourney, they are gonna get the number one seed in the midwest region or whatever the hell the region is called now.
Even if they get an injury and lose early in B 10 tourney, they most likely will still get the number one regional seed (remember Kenyon Martin cincinatti a few years back). Even with an injury to anyone except Dee Brown or Daren Williams they will be fine.
They are the most unselfish and balanced team in college basketball. Their obvious flaw is a solid big man. Augustine has his moments, but Stick Smith is terrible defensively, nice touch from outside though.
This team can jack up the 3s and primarily are an outside shooting and fast break team. Similar to St. Joes last year, although athletically far superior. The thing that scares me the most is that tournament games are generally tight defensed and half court games.
I still think they get there to the elite 8 and personally would love to see them and carolina play for the finals.
At plus money the bet has value, although in your situation you might want to consider the "no" bet to hedge your futures. Then if they get to the final four you can hedge against them.
So, yes the bet has value, in IMO, but its not nearly as easy as it might look to the casual observer. Too many upsets happen in the tourney which is what makes is such a great event.

gl

 

[jpzink]

YES, YES, YES, AND ONE MORE YES THEY MAKE THE FINAL FOUR.

The only team that will give Illinois a run is North Carolina or Kansas, and they probably won't reach those teams until the final 4. No one else can keep up with their guards.

 

[Sun Tzu]

guards? wasnt that the argument about St Joe's last year?

 

[saint]

What about this bet at Pinny:

Big 2 (N. Carolina & Illinois) vs The Field

Big 2 (N. Carolina & Illinois) +138
The Field -148


How about this...play the field, then if either UNC or Illinois makes the finals you can hedge to get your money back in case they win. Only way you are screwed is if BOTH teams make it to the finals, which is very unlikely.

Am i missing something here?

 

[lenniethelock]

should get some good regions to play in.damn near home court.

 

[lenniethelock]

saint are you sure the field is not just unlisted teams?dont use them,so im not sure.

 

[mack the knife]

illini have beaten 7 ranked teams, have done it on the road and nuetral courts as well as home. they have played teams walking the ball up and who are bigger down low. What do they have to do to get some respect? oh, I know, dicky v loves the heels, so they must be better. whatever. how many losses does carolina have? Couldn't even get a shot off against duke. that is not the mark of a championship team. Champ teams have losses, sure, but the heels are all individual atheletes who don't add up to the sum of their parts. If the players stay, next year is their year. Kansas is probably the next best TEAM. Wouldn't that be something, KU vs illini and self coaching against the players he recruited.

 

[saint]

illini have beaten 7 ranked teams, have done it on the road and nuetral courts as well as home. they have played teams walking the ball up and who are bigger down low. What do they have to do to get some respect? oh, I know, dicky v loves the heels, so they must be better. whatever. how many losses does carolina have? Couldn't even get a shot off against duke. that is not the mark of a championship team. Champ teams have losses, sure, but the heels are all individual atheletes who don't add up to the sum of their parts. If the players stay, next year is their year. Kansas is probably the next best TEAM. Wouldn't that be something, KU vs illini and self coaching against the players he recruited.

Wow, calm down.

 

[Kdogg21]

Good bet in my opinion. Noboby seems to be keeping up with their speed.

 

[Scott4USC]

BleedDodgerBlue

I agree with your post. I thought about betting the "no" bet on both Illinois and UNC but i am greedy. I win over 6k if UNC or Illinois win it all. I pretty much break even or lose couple hundred if either Wake Forest, Kansas, G-Tech or Washington win it all. So I am playing with 6 teams in the tourney but really rooting for 2 (UNC & Illinois). My wish is UNC vs Illinois in NC game.

mack the knife

I also agree with your post and thats exactly why i have huge bet on Illinois and thinking about adding more on them to reach final four.

saint

Playing the field at -148 gives you little hedging opportunity in the finals. Illinois or UNC will be large ML favorites over anybody they play. So how can you hedge? I also think there is reasonable chance UNC faces Illinois in NC game. I personally think both teams are on different level than the rest. Depth and talent wise. I think you are missing something. You prob. overlooked it thinking the field is +148 instead of -148.