Yeah, I like Cincy too that line is up to 8 now, looks like a popular play.
I don't like doing 3t but 5d has twisted the hell out of the teaser line for cin and ne both, so you have to pay -165. that tells me they're pretty sure that 2teaser will win. i threw on wash to get +110.
You heard it here first, lol, no way the Chiefs win by 17, that's the public perception though.
If the Rams beat 'em by 35, KC can certainly do 17. But like I said, I'm not betting it because I don't have a read on KC. I do on IND. I think Ind will play fairly well, I just don't think they can stop KC from scoring. Their D did well last week against Hou, but that was the exception of late. Better thing for them was they got their offense going from the first drive, which has been a problem all season. I do think IND will score some, but unless they can hold KC to under 21, I don't they'll cover, and I don't think they can do that. The weather might help a little, with low 20s and possible snow, but I think the crowd will go nuts and offset that. I'd rather bet Reid in this game than in two weeks, because I can just see his look of fat confusion at the 2MW in IND as they go down in an upset.
Hey, I'm pulling for Indy, though, I just love watching Luck. The problem is, their receivers aren't reliable. Unless Rogers can stretch the field, which he has some, it's too hard for them to pick up third downs. And now they're going to play a good defense away.
Chiefs have killed horrendous teams last two weeks which amounts to virtually nothing, except inflated valued. Last week everyone remembers a blowout but if you take away the 7 turnovers they might not have covered. They were out gained yardage wise and time of possession and it wasn't Oak getting garbage scores late.
Yeah, I understand that. Definitely what has just happened will be overreacted to by the public in KC's favor, but that's not the reason I gave for thinking KC will win by 17. I don't think IND can score that much or stop KC in this game. Their D isn't that good. Last game was the only one they really shut a team down .
Take these trends with a grain of salt, you can usually find trends to support a play one way or the other but i like these :142smilie
Chiefs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
I see your angle on their next "projected" meeting, that could be. I just do not think KC is that much better, KC has had a cake schedule and have taken advantage, played well and have not made many mistakes. Time will tell but their home record ATS is not as good as you would think.
The main reason I'd back IND if I were, which I'm not, is they just generally play pretty close - they have all the last two years. Until Wayne got injured, then they seem to alternate blowouts and wins. But that fact, that they stay close and cover all kinds of games where the "experts" are the other way is why I'm NOT betting on KC and just staying off. The experts have been wrong continually about them, and this might well be another example. The cold and the fact they're very likely to play again in two weeks is another reason to think the score might be closer.
Ultimately, I trust Reid to mess up in a big game, and I think the game in two weeks will be much easier to call than this one. Just think KC piles up more points because the Colts just don't stop people that much. But yeah, they're not going to be racking up 5 TDs for one player and junk like that. I knew KC better earlier this season, and went against them at home, and should have won (on GIA and one other), they played close the whole game, and then broke away at very end to cover easily. Now they seem to be in a different place than back then. Just think it will be easier for them to score on Ind's D than vice versa. We'll see.
