Saturday Service Plays 8/30/08

[the duke]

Robert Ferringo write ups

3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St.

Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school?s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I?ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is ?unacceptable?. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU?s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they?re doing, and coach Mike ?I?m a Man? Gundy said he learned a lot from last year?s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We?ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.


2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia

This is one of those games that I?ve looked at and I just don?t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it?s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That?s not it. It?s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were ? literally ? about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don?t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what?s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.


2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa

I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.


2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico

I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year?s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE?s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.


(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)

1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn

It?s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn?s offense than the Tigers are!


2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona

The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year ? a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe ? in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can?t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn?t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.

 

[the duke]

Greg Shaker

CFB Total
double-dime bet154 Mississippi / 153 Memphis Under 54.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAF: Memphis Tigers at Mississippi Rebels - Under 54 -110 | Unit Value: 2 UNIT "Total of the Week"

This will be the 5th consecutive season to bet the UNDER this this game. I am 3-1 in the previous 4 and the only one that went Over was the year before last, in a game that featured 17 points in the last 11 minutes and 53 total points. That makes 4 years straight that this game has gone UNDER this posted total. The Rebels D is going to be pretty good this year as they return a strong D line, led by pass rushing terror Greg Hardy. The entire defensive line is going to be very good this year. They do have some question marks at linebacker and the secondary as new faces will appear on the scene but summer practices have been very spirited and the work of the new guys have been good. Jeven Snead takes over at QB for Ole Miss and the home folks are very excited by his potential. But this team will have some offensive growing pains establishing their new offense. Memphis will have a new QB as well and even though he will have an experienced offensive line, and some very good recievers, he will have to go into Oxford to face an Ole Miss squad that is going to be very motivated to re-establish themselves as one of the better D's in the league. The Tigers have a brand new Defensive coodinator and Tim Walton has a lot to work with. His team does return 9 Defensive starters and they are going to be much improved. This contest is a Big Rivalry, more so for Memphis, and they will come to play. I have personally seen the way the ebb and flow in this series and the way things have gone and there is no doubt, that this line is set too high. It has been set this high due to what Memphis has been all about the last 2 seasons. It is set this high because the Rebels collapsed on D last year. It is business back to usual for this one and 55 points is going to be hard to obtain with these two programs that have a lot of players who played with each other in High School. This will be a hard hitting game as usual, and barring some D scores, it should fall UNDER this number. UNDER is 15-6 last 21 Rebel Games, and here comes another one

 

[kozski61]

Root

Millionaire - Alabama
Chairman - E. Carolina
No Limit - Utah
Money Maker - N. Mex

 

[the duke]

Cajun-Sports

3 STAR East Carolina +9? over Virginia Tech (@ CHARLOTTE, NC)

The Hokies are off a season in which they captured the ACC title and a BCS Bowl invite, and now open their 2008 season against a Pirates crew off an upset victory over Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl.

Frank Beamer's Va Tech team won 11 games last season, but ended with a sour note, falling to Kansas in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz's were a pleasant surprise, winning eight games and finishing second in Conference USA's East Division. Now, off their bowl victory, there is plenty of reason for optimism in Greenville this season, as the Pirates are predicted to vie for the conference crown once again.

Tech has won the six straight in this series; however, it was a close 17-7 game in last year's season-opener, in which East Carolina covered the spread by 17+ points. Despite the loss, the Pirates were not intimidated by the Hokies, even in enemy territory, and certainly won?t be here in a neutral site.

Offensively, the Hokies were nothing special in 2007, and it may take them awhile to get on track in 2008. Senior Sean Glennon is back at the quarterback position, but he will be short on weapons. There is uncertainty in the receiving corps, where Tech must replace its top four pass catchers. Beamer is likely to give a few youngsters a crack at producing on the ground as well, with veteran Branden Ore being dismissed from the team in the spring.

The Hokie defense returns just four starters from a year ago, although Beamer usually gets the most out of this unit. It is in the front seven where Tech will need to fill the most holes, including the loss of standout LBs Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall and rush end Chris Ellis.

The Pirates will have senior Patrick Pinkney at QB, although we expect to see talented junior Rob Kass as well. Tailback Chris Johnson was sensational for the Pirates last season, combining for 2,960 all-purpose years, but has now taken his talents to the NFL. East Caroline will plug in Brandon Simmons and spread the ball around to a wide receiver corps that has a bevy of good athletes, highlighted by the return of Jamar Bryant.

The Pirates loved to plunder the opponents last season, leading the conference with 31 takeaways and with nine starters back in the fold, this unit figures to be among the best in the league yet again.

This game should be similar to last year, in which East Carolina made a game of it. Skip Holtz is proving himself to be a good college football coach, following in his dad?s footsteps. He always has his team ready to go, especially in the role of dog. His Pirates have not only covered the number the last 4 times in that role, but have won the games outright. ECU is also 7-0 ATS when playing with revenge for a SU loss & ATS win, and not an underdog of more than 24 points.

The win in Hawaii last year for the Pirates was a tremendous boost for this program and that should carry over here, as after winning a Bowl Game as a double-digit underdog, teams at the right price have started the following season with a strong showing. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours that states:

In Game 1, play ON a team (not a favorite of more than 19 points) off a Bowl Game SU win as an underdog of 10+ points last season. Since at least 1982, these confident teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than a dozen points a game.

We expect East Carolina to give the Hokies fits once again and see this game decided by a FG for a comfortable cover by the Pirates.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: VIRGINIA TECH 27 EAST CAROLINA 24



4 STAR WYOMING -11 over Ohio

The Cowboys open the 2008 campaign with a home bout against the Bobcats in a non-conference tilt. Head coach Joe Glenn?s seat is getting a little warm in Wyoming after 4 seasons without a bowl game, so he?ll have his Cowboys ready to rope and ride on Saturday to get an easy ?W?.

As for Ohio, they are off a 6-6 season, including a narrow 34-33 home loss to Wyoming.

Now, coach Frank Solich has a major issue on his hands as he sets out on another season of Ohio football, as Kalvin McRae who ended up with just under 4,400 yards for his career is gone. As recently as last week the coaches were still undecided on who would be the featured back in the offense, suffering through some injuries and lackluster play.

The offense for the Bobcats was rather mediocre last year as it was, while the defense wasn?t any better. Now, they have to deal with the loss of Todd Koenig, the team's top tackler.

Junior college transfer Dax Crum is the new top gun for Glenn at Wyoming. Crum is just a sophomore, but having been named an honorable mention All-American and one of the top offensive players in the NJCAA is certainly nothing to sneeze at. The running game should be solid again with running backs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon who combined for 1500 yards last year, providing one of the most punishing one-two punches in the league.

Junior John Fletcher was a huge part of a run defense that ranked 27th in the nation last year with a mere 123 ypg allowed as he ranked among the league's top linemen in terms of tackles with 60. He returns for the Cowboys, as do 6 more starters on defense.

Some may think the Bobcats will have a ?revenge? edge here as falling short at home to Wyoming last season; however, an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows just the opposite. It states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 4?-14? points seeking revenge for a SU loss scoring 25+ points.

For 20 seasons, these teams have gone 0-13 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 15 ppg! The last 2 qualifying teams and 3 of the last 4 were MAC teams.

We also note that the Bobcats are little more than pussy cats when it comes to avenging a loss. Specifically, they are a pathetic 0-12 SU (-23.6 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a road underdog seeking revenge for a home SU loss (not as a favorite of more than 5 points). Meanwhile, Wyoming is 6-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg) at home in non-conference games when not favored by more than 24 points.

We see plenty of value with the Cowboys and jump on their bandwagon here.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WYOMING 34 OHIO 13



5 STAR USC -19 over VIRGINIA

The mighty Trojans begin their quest for another national title this weekend, as they travel to take on the Cavaliers.

Pete Carroll's crew is once again the favorite to win the Pac-10 and contend for the national championship after going 11-2 overall in 2007 and capping the campaign with a 49-17 destruction of Illinois in the Rose Bowl.

The Cavaliers also had a highly successful 2007 campaign, winning nine games overall and placing second in the ACC's Coastal Division with a 6-2 mark; however, there are some dark clouds on the horizon for Al Groh and the program.

As usual, USC was an offensive juggernaut last season and although there are holes to fill in 2008, there is seemingly a revolving door of talent at the school and the cupboard is never bare. Taking over under center should be Mark Sanchez, despite coming off a dislocated his left kneecap during practice on August 8th. The Trojans are very deep in the backfield with the likes of Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable. Patrick Turner is a huge target at and could emerge as a top receiving threat, while big things are also expected from junior Videl Hazelton and sophomore Damian Williams. The Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season, and even bigger things are expected from the unit in 2008.

The Cavaliers were merely average in terms of offensive production in 2007 and gone is QB Jameel Sewell. True freshman Peter Lalich got a taste of action in 2007 and is the only returning signal-caller who got any snaps last season. He will battle senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica for the starting nod, and whoever goes here will be drowning in sea of Trojan red.

Virginia?s ground game should be a strength of the offense with the return of senior Cedric Peerman; however, he?s coming off an injury and is likely to be smothered by USC. Once the Trojans take a commanding lead, the Cavs will have to abandon the run and become sitting ducks. Virginia?s defense played well last year, allowing 20 ppp; however, gone is All-American Chris Long up front and he will be impossible to replace.

Last year, the Cavaliers had a lot of things go their way, winning a national record five games by two points or less. That doesn't seem likely this time around, as Coach Groh will have his hands full just being competitive week in and week out. His team is simply overmatched in this game and will be doing well just to score.

USC will be ready to come out strong here, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+17.8 ppg) in first true road of the season under Pete Carroll.

Some may point to the Trojans next game, and figure they?ll be looking ahead to hosting Ohio State; however, they have a week off following the trip to Virginia, so they should be completely 100% focused on the task at hand. In fact, double-digit road favorites coming off a solid year and starting the season with extended rest following their first game have been tremendous as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

In Game 1, play ON a Saturday road favorite of more than 10 points before 7+ days rest, home in its next game and off 5+ SU wins last season.

Since 1998 these teams are 10-0 SU & ATS, beating the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The last qualifying team was none other than USC when the Trojans traveled to Hawaii and blew up the Warriors, 63-17, covering an enormous 36-point spread.

Another NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM shows that the Trojans should continue their momentum from their Rose Bowl romp. It advises:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent.

Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average. The Trojans are a bit under the radar, not being the preseason #1, so we look for them to make a statement here with a blowout win over the Cavaliers

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 35 VIRGINIA 9



4 STAR Michigan State +4 ? over CALIFORNIA

It?s the Big Ten vs. the Pac 10 Saturday night, in what should be a great game, as the Spartans travel to take on the Golden Bears.

Michigan State is coming off their first winning season since 2003, as last season they won their last two regular season games to earn a bowl bid.

As for California, they posted their sixth straight winning season last year due to a Bowl win over Air Force, finishing with a 7-6 ledger.

The Spartans used a two-headed running attack last season, and that led to nearly 200 rushing yards per contest. Javon Ringer returns for Michigan State, giving the Spartans their home run threat out of the backfield. Brian Hoyer will once again be under center for the Spartans, looking to improve on his numbers from last year.

For the Bears, QB Nate Longshore struggled at times and was eventually hurt, and his absence opened the door for Kevin Riley, who performed well while under center. After a long battle in the spring, Riley was given the nod to start, and will be under center in the opener. He will need plenty of help, as the top four receivers from a year ago are gone. Another issue will be the ground attack, which will have to replace Justin Forsett, who has moved on to the NFL.

This should be one of the more exciting games in the first week of the season, and we like Dantonio here to keep his team in this game and give them a chance to pull out a late win. Michigan State is a strong 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog since late 2006, including 5-0-1 ATS under Dantonio.

These teams met a few years ago, when the Bears upset the Spartans on the road, so Michigan State will have a little payback in mind. They are also 4-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) seeking revenge for a home SU loss, while Cal is an ugly 0-9 ATS (-15.8) in the Regular Season when not getting more than 7 points vs. an opponent playing with revenge.

An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates that non-conference road teams have been solid when looking to start the season by avenging a loss as a big favorite. It states:

In Game 1, play on a non-conference road team (not an underdog of more than 17 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points in the last matchup vs. an opponent not played in opponent?s final contest of last year. This has been perfect situation for 2 decades, going 11-0 ATS, covering the spread by 12 ppg.

Following this contest, Cal has a game at Washington State, which might be where their focus is, as they are 0-5 ATS (-9.5 ppg) in non-conference home games before a conference game. The Bears are also active for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals with a conference road game coming up, teams off a Bowl victory have not been motivated enough to cover the spread in their season opener. It advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a home team off a Bowl Game SU win in its last contest the previous season and before a conference road game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points.

Since 1990, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average.

The Spartans are an under-rated team and should surprise the Bears with a fierce fight.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN STATE 28 CALIFORNIA 27





3 STAR SELECTION Missouri -8 ? over Illinois (@ ST, LOUIS, MO)

A couple of preseason Top 20 teams meet in St. Louis on Saturday, as the sixth-ranked Tigers of the Big 12 Conference battle the 20th-ranked Fighting Illini of the Big Ten. Both teams are coming off surprising seasons, as Ron Zook turned the Illinois around and took his team to the Rose Bowl, while Missouri won the Big 12 North Division title and went 12-2, with Oklahoma being the only team to defeat them on the season.

For Illinois, junior quarterback Juice Williams is the spark plug of the offense. He?s always been a great runner, and last year picked up his passing numbers. This year, Zook and his staff are hoping for further growth from their most dynamic player, but it won't be easy, as Williams will have to do so without the services of RB stud Rashard Mendenhall, who was scooped up in the first round of the NFL draft after garnering Big Ten MVP honors. The biggest question for the offense heading into this opener is who, if anyone, is capable of being even half the player that Mendenhall was for the Illini.

The Tigers finished last season ranked in the top-10 in three major offensive categories, as scored 40 ppg behind nearly 500 yards per game. The return of QB Chase Daniel, receivers Tommy Saunders and Jeremy Maclin along with three offensive linemen means there is likely more of the same on tap this fall.

Illinois was brought back to earth by USC in the Rose Bowl, and that?s likely to continue with too much weight on Juice Williams. Teams that got destroyed in a Bowl Game have done very poorly as a Game 1 underdog, as revealed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog of 2-21? points off a Bowl Game SU loss of 28+ points last season vs. an opponent not off a Bowl Game SU loss of 14+ points in its last game.

Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are a horrible 0-13 SU & ATS.

We also note that Missouri has simply had the Illini?s number, especially when not having to play on the Illinois home field. The Illini are 0-7 SU & ATS vs. the Tigers away from home. Missouri figures to build on their tremendous season last year, and we look for them start this season where they left last year, with a resounding SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 34 ILLINOIS 17



5 STAR OREGON -13? OVER Washington

Pac-10 rivals face off Saturday night when the Ducks host the Huskies. Since taking over at the helm for Washington, head coach Ty Willingham has not enjoyed much success, leading the team to a miserable 12-35 ledger. This year doesn?t look to hold much more promise, placing Ty squarely on the hot seat.

As for Oregon, it opened last season with eight wins in the first nine games, but the final three regular season contests resulted in defeat after QB Dennis Dixon went down. Despite the late collapse, the Ducks recovered their ?mojo? at the Sun Bowl and crushed South Florida in that game by a 56-21 final. The Ducks did lose some significant talent from that club, but a high level of talent remains on the roster, accounting for their Top 25 ranking.

The Huskies' offense will revolve around their very talented and versatile quarterback Jake Locker, although he comes in here nursing a sore hamstring. He is still raw, as he only completed 47.5 percent of his throws and had just 14 pass TDs against 15 interceptions. He did also rush for nearly 1000 yards and 13 scores, making him a tremendous dual threat entering this season, but it remains to be seen how much he will be able to do on the ground due to his injury. He won?t have many familiar faces around, as the wide receiver corps was depleted, and RB Louis Rankin has to be replaced after becoming the first 1,000-yard rusher at Washington since 1997. Sophomore Brandon Johnson was expected to be the main back for the Huskies, but he is suffering from a calf injury that leaves his status for this opener questionable.

Over the past few seasons, the Huskies have been atrocious defensively, and while the addition of new defensive coordinator in Ed Donatell brings some hope, expectations should not be great, as it will take time to learn the new system.

The quarterback position is definitely the main issue for coach Oregon?s Bellotti as he enters the 2008 season. Nathan Costa figured to take over the starting job, but he will miss much, if not all, of the season with a knee injury. As a result, redshirt sophomore Justin Roper will lead the offense. He should be able to step in here and do the job, as he led the team to the crushing defeat of South Florida in the Sun Bowl. He played well in the team's final scrimmage last Friday and has been around the program long enough to get a strong command of the offense. Roper will have the luxury of throwing to Jaison Williams, one of the most dangerous wideouts in the Pac-10.

Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball for Oregon, giving the Ducks a veteran unit that should improve on last year's numbers.

Laying nearly 2 TDs here in a conference rivalry game is reason for cause; however, we have a pile of numbers to support Oregon covering the spread. When they win, they usually win big, as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 SU victories. They have also dominated this series, going 4-0 SU & ATS vs. the Huskies since 2004. The Ducks have done well in these early conference clashes, going superb 4-0 SU (+21.8 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) in Game 1 conference home games since 1989.

Oregon also qualifies for some our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. Showing that teams can build off an explosive Bowl Game showing, we have a system that states:

In Game 1, play ON a BCS Conference team off scoring 45+ points in its last game of the previous season vs. a BCS Conference opponent. Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, blistering the spread by more than 15 ppg on average.

Playing at home against a conference foe they have dominated of late has been a great way to start the season for favorite, as another POWER SYSTEMS reveals with:

In Game 1, play ON a non-Thursday conference home favorite of less than 35 points vs. an opponent seeking revenge for SU losses in the last 3 matchups. Since 1993, these teams are 8-0 SU & ATS, again covering by more than 15 points on average. We note that the last team to qualify for this spot was these same Ducks. To start the 2006 season, Oregon hosted Stanford, and simply covered the 11?-point spread by 26? points with a 48-10 romp.

The Huskies did put some points on the board against Oregon last year, which may give them some false hope. As it turns out, conference road teams have not been up to the task of starting the season seeking to avenge a defeat in which they put a fair amount of points. We have yet another POWER SYSTEM that advises:

In Game 1, play AGAINST a conference road team (not an underdog of more than 16 points) seeking revenge for a SU loss, scoring 25+ points.

Going back 20+ seasons, this system is a perfect 9-0 SU & ATS. The ?revenge? team have failed to cover the spread by more than 17 points a game on average! When one team dominates a conference foe, there is little revenge motivation in their favor. The edge goes to the team doing the dominating, and we look for the Ducks to put the hammer down here and whip the Huskies for a SU & ATS win.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OREGON 38 WASHINGTON 17

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

I'm laying the points with CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears in their home opener two years ago. Listed as small favorites, they traveled to Tennessee and got crushed by the Volunteers. Last year, I successfully played ON the Bears in their opener. Once again, they faced the Vols. However, this time the game was played here in Berkeley and this time it was the revenge-minded Bears who won by double-digits. Note that while the Bears have played a top tier team in their opener each of the past two years, the Spartans have hosted the likes of UAB, Idaho and Kent State in their opener in each of the past three seasons, laying more than three touchdowns in each of those games. In other words, traveling to the West Coast to take on a solid Pac 10 program represents a major step up in class for a team used to easing its way into Big 10 play. Note that the Spartans weren't planning on flying out here until Friday and were planning on staying on Eastern Time, rather than going early and trying to adjust. Both teams have suffered quite a few losses from last year. The Spartans' losses are arguably bigger though, as they are now without WR Devin Thomas, RB Jehuu Caulcrick, TE Kellen Davis and DE Jonal Saint-Dic, all four of whom were integral parts of last year's squad. They do bring back QB Brian Hoyer and he should have another solid season. However, it may take some time to adjust to not having his favorite targets. He'll face an experienced Cal defense (8 starters) while dealing with a fired up Bears team looking to make amends after underachieving last year. The Bears are also inexperienced on offense and as a result, expectations aren't as high as they have been in recent seasons. However, they have more weapons than most people think and Coach Tedford has always gotten the most out of his teams, when flying under the radar. Additionally, although we could easily see some of both, I really like the decision to go with the more athletic Kevin Riley over the more experienced Nate Longshore, as the starting QB. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by less than eight points. They're also 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the last four times that they faced a team from the Big-10. On the other hand, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS the last five times they faced a team from the Pac-10, including a 46-22 loss vs. the Bears when these teams last met in 2002. With the home crowd behind them, look for the Bears to get the season started with a important win and cover. *TV GOM


I'm laying the points with NORTHWESTERN. The Wildcats were bowl eligible with six wins last season but didn't make it to a bowl. This year's team is loaded with returning starters and should be Pat Fitzgerald's best group yet. Having missed out on the postseason last year, Fitzgerald and co. know the importance of getting off to a strong start this year and winning all their non-conference home games. Note that the Wildcats lost an early home game vs. Duke last year, which ultimately proved extremely costly. I expect them to have learned from that experience and for them to take care of their winnable games this year. Off another awful season, Syracuse certainly fits the bill. Note that the Wildcats are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four August games. During the same stretch, the Orange were 0-3 SU/ATS in their August games. The Orange return a decent number of starters and should be better this season. That's not really saying a whole lot though, as they were 2-10 last year and were terrible on both sides of the ball. The offense managed just 16.4 points per game on the strength of a mere 62.8 yards rushing. The defense was arguably even worse, allowing 34.8 points per game and 468.8 total yards per game. Given last year's record and his 3-year record of 7-28, it's somewhat surprising that the Orange haven't fired coach Greg Robinson. They havent though and even with a more experienced team, it figures to be another long year. The Wildcats have the offense to exploit the porous Orange defense. Quarterback C.J. Bacher returns. Bacher completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,656 yards and 19 touchdowns last year and he's got all his main weapons back. He's also got a new offensive coordinator in Mick McCall. Note that McCall was Bowling Green's offensive coordinator last year and the Falcons went from 19.5 points in 2006 to 30.2 in 2007. He also has given the Wildcats' offense a new no-huddle attack, which should prove particularly difficult to defend for a team playing it's first game. The Northwestern defense also has a new coordinator in Mike Hankwitz. The experienced Hankwitz has worked with several big name programs, inlcuding Wisconsin the past two seasons, and has instituted an "attack first style." Coach Fitgerald had this to say: "He brought an attitude that we're going to be a good defense. We've been improving since he's been aboard. We're going to attack people. We're going to dictate what we want to do." Asked on his team's goal for the season, Fitzgerald said: "What's in our control is to win a bowl game. I think that's a great expectation." Look for them to take the first step to achieving that goal, beginning the season with a double-digit victory.


HUGE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. This is one of the more intriguing opening week matchups as it features a pair of ranked teams, both of which have lofty expectations. The Tigers were one of the best teams in the country and last season and they should be very good once again. That being said, the Illini are no slouches either! Illinois brings 13 starters back from last season's 9-win team, most importantly star quarterback Juice Williams. In his first year, Williams dazzled defenses with his feet. Last year, in addition to his 755 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, Williams also passed for another 1,743 yards and 13 scores, completing a healthy 57 percent of his attempts. He should be even better this season. However, it's the Illinois defensive line which everyone is raving about and which figures to be the Illini's best unit since the early 90s. Not only do the Illini have excellent talent at the defensive line position but they've also got plenty of depth. This will help to allow them to keep subbing in fresh pass rushers throughout the game. While Tigers' Chase Daniel is bound to have another monster season, I expect him to find the going tougher than he did here in St. Louis last season. The bottom line is that while I have a great deal of respect for what Missouri brings to the table, I also think Illinois is a very good team and feel that this line is too high. You may recall last year's game as turned out to be a thriller. The Tigers jumped off to a big early lead. Illinois fought all the way back from 24 points down with six minutes to go in the third quarter though and the Tigers needed an interception at the 1-yard-line with 51 seconds left in the game to preserve the victory. Williams and the Illini have learned a lot about themselves since that time, beating the likes of Penn State, Wisconsin and #1 Ohio State, on the road no less. The last two games in this rivalry, both played here at St. Louis, were both decided by a touchdown or less. While they failed to cover last year's meeting by a point, this year's line is a fair bit higher. Additionally, even including that pointspread loss AND their bowl loss to USC, the Illini are still a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as underdogs. I expect this one to come down to the wire once again and am grabbing the generous points. *Underdog GOM

 

[the duke]

CHARLIE SPORTS

500* Virginia Tech / East Carolina Over

Charlies Sports

Va Tech / East Carolina Over 45 (500*)
Akron +27 (30*)
Northwestern -11? (20*)
Florida -34? (20*)
Ohio +13 (10*)
Bowling Green +14 (10*) free play

 

[kozski61]

Special K Sports

From Website

20 Star - Northern Illinios +8

20 Star - Florida Atlantic +24

20 Star - Arkansas State +19.5

 

[Larry_Legend]

Anyone have that loser B. Lang's plays?

 

[Mr. Hollywood]

RED NECK Bob

Wyoming
Mississippi
Tulsa

 

[Mr. Hollywood]

RED NECK Bob

Added UL-Laff

 

[the duke]

Ross Benjamin

15* GOW

Event Date: 08/30/2008

Play: USC ?19.5 (15*)

Comments: USC @ Virginia

The Trojans are loaded for bear once again and will be hungry to get back to the BCS Championship game in 2009. The quarterback situation has been up in the air because of the physical status of the incumbent starter Mark Sanchez. He is now listed as probable but just in case highly touted Mitch Mustain a transfer from Arkansas is not a bad second option. The Cavaliers were hit hard by graduation and the early departures for the NFL. They will be hard pressed to stay with this Trojan team for 60 minutes because of a huge gap in talent and depth. This will be statement game for USC to show the rest of the country they will once again be a force to be reckoned with nationally.

Any non-conference home underdog of 13.0 or more in their opening game of the season that has won 9 or more of their last 22 games is 1-15 ATS since 1980. If they are playing an opponent that won 9 or more games last season then this angle goes to 0-10 SU and ATS with favorite winning by an average of 32.1 points per game. Play on the USC Trojans minus the points as my College Football 15* Top Play Blowout of the Week.

 

[ROQQIN RIQ]

ROQQIN RIQ....

EAST CAROLINA

FLORIDA

KANSAS GL :Yep: :Yep:

 

[the duke]

The Millionaires Club

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, August 30, 2008
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[the duke]

EZ WINNERS

NCAA FOOTBALL

5 STAR: (149) UTAH (+3) over Michigan
(Risking $550 to win $500)

3 STAR: (159) WESTERN MICHIGAN (+14) over Nebraska
(Risking $330 to win $300)

3 STAR: (183) MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over California
(Risking $330 to win $300)

2 STAR: (187) ALABAMA (+4) over Clemson
(Risking $220 to win $200)

2 STAR: (180) EAST CAROLINA (+8.5) over Virginia Tech
(Risking $220 to win $200)


MLB

1 STAR: (961) ATLANTA (+$101) over Washington
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $101)

 

[the duke]

Sebastian

300* Florida
100*California
50* OK State
30* So Cal
20*Syracuse, New Mexico , UNLV




10* Philly, Mets, Seattle
100* Steam Play Col / San Deigo Under

 

[the duke]

Vegas-Runner

triple-dime bet172 Washington St. 8.0 (-120) Bodog vs 171 Oklahoma St.

Analysis: *** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (-120)

I went ahead and posted this Bet at +8 (-120) because Bodog and a couple of others are using 7.5 and I am quite sure that with all the money that is expected by the books to come in on the other side...the rest should follow and also move the line up...If you are unable to get this number, it is still a Play even at +7...but we always make it a habit to get the best number possible and when we are backing the home-dog which we except to give us 60min of effort...when the opportunity is there to buy the hook and get it to a whole number, especially a number like 8...then it should almost be automatic.

CFB Total

double-dime bet174 Minnesota / 173 N. Illinois Over 58.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** 2* NCAAFB TOTAL PLAY of the DAY **

As I stated in the Podcast, the money coming in from the bettors will continue to be on the UNDER and because of that, we are now able to get an even better number than earlier in the week...and I hope that trend continues and we are offered a lower number than posted...VR


CFB Side

double-dime bet153 Memphis 8.0 (-120) SportBet vs 154 Mississippi
Analysis: ** 2* WAGER ** (-120)

I went ahead and Posted this at 8 (-120) because even though I see some 8's out there at some of the shops and with locals...the consensus seems to have moved this to 7.5, and in that case I recommend buying the hook for 10cents...VR

 

[the duke]

Dominic Brando

Inner Circle 2008-09 NFL/NCAA Football Records Grid:
2008 NCAA Regular Season (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)
2008 NFL Regular Season (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)
NFL/NCAA Teaser Club (Special 150 Units 0-0-0, Top 100 Units 0-0-0, Regular 50 Units 0-0-0)

Saturday August 30th, 2008 NCAA College Football Executive Report:

NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Underdog Game of the Week: #211 FRESNO STATE +5/-115 over Rutgers
NCAA Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #211 FRESNO STATE ML +180 over Rutgers

*** Please Note that Fresno State/Rutgers Kicks Off on Labor Day Monday September 1st at 4 PM ET

NFL/NCAA Teaser Club Top Rated 100 Unit Golden Star Lock 4 Team Teaser Release:
1) #132 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS PICK over NC State Wolfpack (Thursday 8:00 PM ET ESPN)
2) #160 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS PICK over Western Michigan Broncos (Saturday 7:00 PM ET)
3) #162 OREGON DUCKS PICK over Washington Huskies (Saturday 10:00 PM ET)
4) #163 TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE PICK over UAB Blazers (Saturday 4:00 PM ET)

 

[Big_Chief]

Loser Lang Anyone?

Loser Lang Anyone?

ANyone have loser lang he has gone 5-1 to start the season he may get lucky again today

 

[the duke]

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Date: Saturday, August 30, 2008
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Utah +3
Wisconsin -26.5
Southern Mississippi -11
Florida -35
Northwestern -11
Nebraska -14.5
Pittsburgh -13.5
Clemson -5
Kent State +10
Arkansas State +19

 

[the duke]

Kelso Sturgeon

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