Ok, I'm gonna try not to duplicate stuff I've mentioned in other threads.
Huge difference in QBs. Penix will likely be under pressure again tonight, especially with little to no threat of a run game. But 1) he is very adept at avoiding the rush and still finding a receiver downfield and 2) maybe even more important tonight... he started running again. That's a great way to neutralize a pass rush. McCarthy... I've said this all year... he's in over his head. That was demonstrated his very first pass of the game last week, when he threw an INT on a terrible decision. He was lucky that the defender had stepped out of bounds.
Obviously Michigan hopes to be effective enough with the ground game that McCarthy won't have to throw the ball much. And against a mediocre UW rush defense, that's entirely possible.
UW is, what, 6-0 SU the last two seasons as a dog?
Penix came back this season for one reason. A lot of his teammates, who also could have gone pro, followed suit.
UW already destroyed Michigan this year 41-7, led by Penix throwing for 473 yards and 4 TDs. OHHHH... that was Michigan St. Well, same thing.
Not a big bet for me. Normally I'd be all over the team with the better run game and defense. But the Big 10 was awful this year, and I don't trust Michigan. UW has made a habit of winning close games. Even if Michigan is leading late, UW has the passing attack to get a backdoor cover.
UW (+5) 4 units
UW (ML) 2 to win 3.5
Over (56) 4 units.
1Q under (10.5) 2 units
UW 1st drive end to end in a punt 2 to win 2.1
Michigan 1st drive to end in a punt 2 to win 2.4. Normally these games start slowly. I only need one of the teams to punt their first drive to make a profit.
Huge difference in QBs. Penix will likely be under pressure again tonight, especially with little to no threat of a run game. But 1) he is very adept at avoiding the rush and still finding a receiver downfield and 2) maybe even more important tonight... he started running again. That's a great way to neutralize a pass rush. McCarthy... I've said this all year... he's in over his head. That was demonstrated his very first pass of the game last week, when he threw an INT on a terrible decision. He was lucky that the defender had stepped out of bounds.
Obviously Michigan hopes to be effective enough with the ground game that McCarthy won't have to throw the ball much. And against a mediocre UW rush defense, that's entirely possible.
UW is, what, 6-0 SU the last two seasons as a dog?
Penix came back this season for one reason. A lot of his teammates, who also could have gone pro, followed suit.
UW already destroyed Michigan this year 41-7, led by Penix throwing for 473 yards and 4 TDs. OHHHH... that was Michigan St. Well, same thing.
Not a big bet for me. Normally I'd be all over the team with the better run game and defense. But the Big 10 was awful this year, and I don't trust Michigan. UW has made a habit of winning close games. Even if Michigan is leading late, UW has the passing attack to get a backdoor cover.
UW (+5) 4 units
UW (ML) 2 to win 3.5
Over (56) 4 units.
1Q under (10.5) 2 units
UW 1st drive end to end in a punt 2 to win 2.1
Michigan 1st drive to end in a punt 2 to win 2.4. Normally these games start slowly. I only need one of the teams to punt their first drive to make a profit.
