Gold Sheet
NFL ANALYSIS
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18
JACKSONVILLE 20 - San Diego 16--Jags have hopes that QB David Garrard (high ankle sprain; check status) will return after missing 3 games. Jacksonville has lost hammering G Naeole for the rest of the season, while S.D. is without DE Castillo for several weeks, with def. coord. Cottrell attributing Adrian Peterson's record 296-yard performance two weeks ago largely to his absence. Note that S.D. 1-5 SU last 6 away and that Chargers are 5-4 TY by virtue of two return TDs vs. Colts plus a missed Vinatieri chip-shot FG. (04-S. DIEGO +2' 34-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 28 - Kansas City 10--Indy dominated LY's Wildcard meeting, stifling the K.C. offense (only total 126 yards; Larry Johnson 32 YR; check status). Colts laboring themselves a bit these days due to injuries suffered by key receivers Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark & Anthony Gonzalez & (check status), not to mention DE Dwight Freeney. But Indy 4-0 vs. number at home TY and fired up after back-to-back losses.
(06-INDY 23-K. City 8...I.28-7 I.40/188 K.17/44 I.31/39/3/247 K.14/24/2/82 I.0 K.1)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -7 23-8 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 11-7)
MINNESOTA 20 - Oakland 10--Battle of two teams searching for some high-quality NFL QBing (will Oakland soon take the wraps off JaMarcus Russell?). But even if big gun RB Adrian Peterson (1081 YR; knee exam pending, check status) out, Vikes have vet Chester Taylor (1216 YR in 2006) against the porous Raider run defense that has yielded 180 ypg rushing on the road TY. Relentless Minny G Steve Hutchinson eager to pound away at that group.
(03-OAKLAND +4' 28-18...SR: Oakland 9-3)
Cleveland 24 - BALTIMORE 17--There's no margin for error in Baltimore, especially after injury-nicked Ravens failed to capitalize on a soft early slate (check out the upcoming schedule!). Meanwhile, the offense continues to misfire, especially with Steve McNair (just 2 TDP) a shadow of his former self. Cleveland's credentials as a playoff contender (QB D. Anderson, once waived by Balt., now 20 TDP) solidified further by near-miss at Pittsburgh. Doubt McNair can do much more damage than first meeting, when his dinks proved mostly harmless in Browns' 27-13 win.
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)
(06-Balt. 15-CLE. 14...B.18-17 B.27/86 C.19/38 B.23/41/0/254 C.21/33/1/250 B.0 C.1)
(06-BALT. 27-Cle. 17...B.14-13 B.35/142 C.16/68 B.13/25/1/231 C.23/33/2/168 B.2 C.0)
(07-CLEVE. +4 27-13; 06-Balt. -6' 15-14, BALT. -12 27-17...SR: Baltimore 11-6)
Pittsburgh 26 - N.Y. JETS 10 --The vilified Eric Mangini's switch to stronger-armed Kellen Clemens really not much more than a half-season audition that will determine if Jets need to pursue a new QB with as much as they need upgrades with defensive front 7 in offseason. And Clemens likely to find Steeler def. coord.'s Dick ******'s zone blitzes throughly confusing. "Bye" week not likely to improve spirits in glum NY locker room.
(04-PITTSBURGH -5 17-6, PITTSBURGH -9 20-17 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 16-2)
Tampa Bay 20 - ATLANTA 13--Is the NFC South worse than the AFC or NFC West? And is it really possible Atlanta could become a factor in the division race? Even with Falcons at 3-6, we wouldn't completely rule out the latter, especially if the rejuvenated Warrick Dunn (189 YR last 2) continues to provide the infantry diversion that Joey Harrington needs to function, even at his low-watt power. But now that Earnest Graham has emerged as more than a stop-gap for injured Tampa Bay RBs, and Jeff Garcia functioning effectively at QB, Bucs' offensive competence gives them the edge.
(06-ATL. 14-T. Bay 3...22-22 A.44/306 T.16/40 T.28/53/3/311 A.10/16/1/76 A.1 T.0)
(06-Atl. 17-T. BAY 6...15-15 A.34/139 T.29/80 T.22/37/0/192 A.14/23/1/141 A.0 T.2)
(06-ATLANTA -5 14-3, Atlanta -3' 17-6...SR: Tampa Bay 15-12)
Arizona 30 - CINCINNATI 23--New Arizona HC Whisenhunt well familiar with the Bengals after spending the L6Ys as an assistant with the AFC North Steelers. Although tall, speedy WR Chris Henry back for Cincy, Bengals depletion on defense has seen them fall to 31st overall through Week Nine, and 28th vs. the run, which is good news to Edgerrin James (678 YR), who's keeping lots of pressure off Kurt Warner (3 TDP last week). Cardinals 9-2-1 last 12 as a dog, and "over" 20-6-1 last 27 on road.
(03-ARIZONA +3 17-14...SR: Cincinnati 5-3)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Miami 17--Is Miami HC Cam Cameron close to giving a shot to BYU rookie John Beck at QB? Even if not, his "triplets" of journeyman QB Cleo Lemon, RB Jesse Chatman (out of football LY), and rookie WR Ted Ginn Jr. are not what he had in mind when he took the job last winter. But it's not like 0-9 Dolphins are being regularly "run over," as 5 of their 9 losses have been by just 3 points! Chatman 124 YR last week vs. Bills, while Lemon had no interceptions. (03-Philadelphia +2' 34-27...SR: Miami 7-4)
*New England 26 - BUFFALO 16--A banana peel for 9-0 New England? We doubt it, because Buffalo doesn't have quite enough "O" (especially if rookie RB Lynch can't make post) to trade points. But with Sammy Morris out, some insiders wonder if Bill Belichick might regret not luring Corey Dillon out of retirement to provide the physical infantry component that could come in handy as weather deteriorates. Bills (5-0 as home dog TY; currently 6 straight covers overall) haven't dropped a spread decision since Sept. 23 at Foxborough (when QB Losman was KO'd in first series). TV--NBC
(07-N. ENG. 38-Buf. 7...N.27-12 N.38/177 B.27/110 N.23/29/0/308 B.11/21/1/83 N.1 B.1)
(06-N. ENG. 19-Buf. 17...N.19-12 N.41/183 B.24/99 B.15/23/0/141 N.11/23/1/136 N.1 B.0)
(06-N. Eng. 28-BUF. 6...N.18-13 N.27/94 B.25/75 B.16/25/1/181 N.18/27/0/171 N.0 B.2)
(07-N. ENG. -16' 38-7; 06-N. ENG. -9' 19-17, N. Eng. -5' 28-6...SR: New England 54-40-1)
DALLAS 30 - Washington 13--Both Tony Romo & Jason Campbell took over as their respective team's starting QBs in midseason LY, but Romo's development has been much greater. Moreover, he's arguably had better offensive support, especially TY by his big, healthy line, something not present in Washington. And kudos to off. coord. Jason Garrett for being able to get all of his offensive weapons (including "T.O." and split-duty RBs J. Jones & Barber) operating in mutual harmony (not easy in the NFL).
(06-DAL. 27-Wash. 10...D.22-16 D.31/138 W.20/93 D.19/38/0/229 W.18/33/1/152 D.1 W.0)
(06-WASH. 22-Dal. 19...D.21-18 W.32/117 D.29/111 D.24/36/0/267 W.14/23/0/183 W.1 D.0)
(06-DALLAS -6' 27-10, WASHINGTON +3 22-19...SR: Dallas 55-37-2)
OVER THE TOTAL New Orleans 34 - HOUSTON 24--The Saints' recent surge is being driven by QB Drew Brees (13 TDs, only 3 ints. the last 5 games), who has adapted well to the alterations made since the loss of power back Deuce McAllister. Meanwhile, Houston has lost six DBs for the season, including two starters. Andre Johnson (103 recs. LY; knee injury Week Two) is reportedly ready to return for the Texans. But that's not likely to be enough vs. Brees & mates, who are eager for their chances vs. Texan secondary.
(03-NEW ORLEANS -8 31-10...SR: New Orleans 1-0)
GREEN BAY 27 - Carolina 10--Panthers can't seem to win at home (six straight losses), but they have a "knack" on the road (4-1 SU; 6-1 vs. spread last 7). Too bad they're catching the Packers when G.B. is red hot (12-1 SU, 10-2-1 vs. spread last 13) and with the Panther QBs gimpy (sore-heeled Testaverde 13 of 28 last week). Pack making impressive in-season improvements at RB with Ryan Grant (278 YR last 3 games) and at WR with addition of Koren Robinson (5 recs. last week).
(05-CAROLINA -7' 32-29...SR: Green Bay 6-3)
NY Giants 31 - DETROIT 27--Not a good matchup for Jon Kitna and the Detroit OL, which has yielded a league-high 40 sacks, while the Giants front seven "hungry" for some after collecting only two last week vs. Dallas' well-protected Tony Romo. Kitna will get plenty of completions vs. the N.Y. secondary. But Giants' better balance (Lions minus 18 YR last week) will win the day, especially if Detroit starting CB Fernando Bryant (check foot injury) is out. (04-Detroit +7 28-13...SR: Detroit 21-17-1)
St. Louis 22 - SAN FRANCISCO 17--Last week's win should do wonders for the confidence of Rams, who have s-o-o-o-o many more weapons on offense than the limited 49ers, whose own OL is now ravaged by injuries (RG Justin Smiley, LT Jonas Jennings placed on IR last week). With Brian Leonard blocking for Steven Jackson & Antonio Pittman (combined 129 YR at New Orleans), QB Marc Bulger had just enough time to hit 27 of 33 in win vs. Saints.
(07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)
(06-S. FRN. 20-St. Lou. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)
(06-ST. LOU. 20-S. Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)
(07-S. Fran. +3 17-16; 06-S. FRAN. +3 20-13, ST. LOUIS -4' 20-17...SR: St. Louis 59-55-2)
Chicago 19 - SEATTLE 17--Payback time for the Seahawks, who lost in the Divisional Round in OT at Chicago LY? However, Seattle's progress hampered TY by WR injuries and by Shaun Alexander's decline (due in part to hand fracture) to 3.3 ypc. Could Rex Grossman (two late TD drives last week to beat Oakland) turn out to be the next young veteran QB to benefit from spending some time on the sidelines watching another in his job? The tools are there (except for Cedric Benson--3.0 ypc). Chicago 6-2-1 last 9 as reg.-season dog.
(06-CHI. 37-Sea. 6...C.21-14 C.38/143 S.19/77 C.17/31/0/219 S.17/37/2/153 C.0 S.0)
(06-CHI. 27-Sea. 24 (OT)...C.21-18 S.31/127 C.34/120 C.21/38/1/251 S.18/33/1/179 C.1 S.0)
(06-CHICAGO -3' 37-6, CHICAGO -9 27-24 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Seattle 6-4)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19
*Tennessee 21 - DENVER 13--A potentially terrible matchup for Denver, which ranked last in rush defense through Week Nine, while the much-improved Tennessee defense was first. Both QBs Jay Cutler & Vince Young going through some growing pains vs. NFL defenses in their second seasons. But Vince's supporting cast much healthier, and RBs LenDale White & Chris Brown (from University of Colorado) provide the power that Denver hates TY, and 6-3 Titans eager to get back on track in AFC playoff chase after last week's loss. Tennessee 9-1-1 last 11 as a visitor overall, and 12-2-1 as an underdog since "V.Y." was elevated to the starting job. CABLE TV--ESPN
(04-Denver -4 37-16...SR: Tennessee 21-14-1
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Tennessee and Denver on Monday Night
Tennessee is 6-7 straight-up and 6-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
11-8 straight-up and 9-9-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 18-10-1 straight-up and 11-17-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the spread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
ARIZONA by 7 over Cincinnati
TENNESSEE by 8 over Denver (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Houston game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 8 3 4-5 5-3-1 5-4 21-22 3-1 21-20 2-2 21-23
Atlanta 9 1 3-6 6-3 2-7 15-20 2-2 19-23 4-1 12-18
Baltimore- 10 1 4-5 1-8 3-4 15-20 1-3 19-15 0-5 13-24
Buffalo+ 8 3 5-4 7-2 3-6 16-18 5-0 21-18 2-2 9-19
Carolina- 11 2 4-5 4-5 2-7 17-20 0-4 12-26 4-1 20-15
Chicago 9 2 4-5 3-6 4-5 18-21 0-4 17-24 3-2 19-19
Cincinnati+ 9 2 3-6 4-5 5-4 24-28 2-2 23-27 2-3 26-28
Cleveland 8 3 5-4 7-2 8-0 28-29 4-1 32-31 3-1 24-28
Dallas -1 3 8-1 7-2 7-2 33-22 3-1 33-26 4-1 33-18
Denver 7 2 4-5 2-7 7-2 17-26 1-4 17-26 1-3 17-27
Detroit 8 4 6-3 5-3-1 5-4 25-24 3-0 31-17 2-3 19-30
Green Bay+ 3 5 8-1 7-1-1 5-4 25-16 3-1 24-16 4-0 28-16
Houston 9 2 4-5 4-5 5-3 23-25 2-2 26-23 2-3 20-27
Indianapolis -2 3 7-2 6-3 3-6 29-17 4-0 33-17 2-3 27-16
Jacksonville 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-4 20-18 1-3 17-17 4-1 23-20
Kansas City 10 3 4-5 4-4-1 4-5 15-19 1-3 16-21 3-1 14-17
Miami 13 2 0-9 2-5-2 5-4 20-29 0-4 19-34 1-1 23-28
Minnesota 10 2 3-6 3-4-2 4-5 18-21 2-2 23-17 1-2 15-24
New England -9 5 9-0 8-1 7-2 39-16 4-0 41-11 4-1 39-20
New Orleans- 6 3 4-5 3-6 5-3 22-25 1-4 24-25 2-2 21-25
NY Giants 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-3 24-21 3-2 23-22 2-1 30-24
NY Jets 13 2 1-8 2-6-1 5-3 18-25 1-3 15-24 1-3 21-28
Oakland 13 1 2-7 3-6 4-5 18-22 0-5 16-23 3-1 20-20
Philadelphia 7 3 4-5 4-5 4-5 21-20 1-3 25-25 3-2 18-16
Pittsburgh 3 4 7-2 6-3 5-4 28-14 4-1 31-11 2-2 25-18
St. Louis+ 12 2 1-8 2-7 3-6 15-28 1-3 20-26 1-4 11-29
San Diego 3 4 5-4 5-4 5-3 24-21 4-1 23-16 1-3 24-27
San Francisco 13 1 2-6 2-5-1 3-5 13-23 1-2 10-20 1-3 16-27
Seattle 8 4 4-4 3-5 3-5 21-18 2-2 24-15 1-3 18-20
Tampa Bay 7 4 5-4 4-4-1 3-6 18-16 3-1 22-12 1-3 14-21
Tennessee 6 2 6-3 5-3-1 2-6 20-17 2-3 17-16 3-0 23-18
Washington 9 3 5-4 2-5-2 4-4 20-21 1-3 23-18 1-2 16-25
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15
*Oregon 34 - ARIZONA 26--Will Oregon be the next victim of the "Top Two" curse? Probably not, especially with QB D. Dixon expected to be ready after brief knee injury scare vs. Arizona State Nov. 3. But Ducks might have to sweat a little vs. Mike Stoops' rejuvenated UA bunch that has more than held its own in recent series meetings. Wildcat QB Tuitama (24 TDP) getting more and more comfy with Sonny Dykes' Texas Tech-like spread. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-Ariz. 37-ORE. 10...O.18-16 A.45/230 O.26/163 O.25/45/4/183 A.9/14/0/133 A.0 O.2)
(06-Ariz. +13' 37-10 05-Ore. -10' 28-21 04-ORE. -11' 28-14...SR: Oregon 19-12)
ADDED GAME
*ARKANSAS STATE 47 - North Texas 37--With a succession of basketball-like scores (allowed 66 or more three times in nine games!) blurring the distinction between UNT gridders and Johnny Jones' Mean Green hoopsters, can't get too excited about visitors. ASU "O" has exploited the lesser stop units on its schedule, but UNT's "Dodge Ball" offense gaining confidence with every game.
(06-ARK. ST. 29-N. Tex. 10...A.23-13 A.51/279 N.31/160 A.11/19/0/187 N.11/16/1/103 A.0 N.1)
(06-ASU -10 29-10 05-Asu -2' 31-24 04-Ntu -5 31-7...SR: EVEN 8-8)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 36 - Eastern Michigan 27--Look for EMU to gather itself for a major effort in this battle for the Michigan MAC Trophy. Eagle QB Andy Schmitt has thrown 7 TD passes & no ints. in his last 4 games, and RB Pierre Walker has 399 YR & 4 TDs in his last 3. The EMU defense is better than Central's, which ranks 113th in the country, and Chippewas have already clinched a spot in MAC title game.
(06-Cmu 24-EMU 17 (OT)...E.25-24 E.47/188 C.33/176 C.27/42/1/276 E.22/32/0/157 C.0 E.0)
(06-Cm -4' 24-17 (OT) 05-Em +5' 23-20 (OT) 04-Em +1' 61-58 (OT) Ford Field...SR: CMU 53-25-6)
*NEVADA 38 - Hawaii 37--Trips to Reno have been the bane of recent Hawaii teams, which haven't won or covered at Mackay Stadium since Nevada joined WAC. And in potentially adverse weather conditions, June Jones' Red Gun might not function as well as Chris Ault's Pistol, which can slam away with north-south RB Lippincott (5.5 ypc). Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick (13 TDP and 5 rush TDs in 4-plus games as starter) almost matching Colt Brennan's (check status) recent stats. And, remember, Warriors needed OT before prevailing at both La Tech & SJSU. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-HAWAII 41-Nevada 34...H.28-25 H.24/160 N.25/108 H.36/47/0/419 N.26/36/0/364 H.2 N.2)
(06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28 04-HAWAII -18 48-26...SR: Nevada 6-5)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 17
IOWA 30 - Western Michigan 10--Iowa's defense has put Hawkeyes in a position to virtually clinch a bowl bid with a win in this finale. WMU has just 1 cover this season, and Bronco HC Bill Cubit isn't happy with QB Hiller's performance despite 2378 YP & 16 TDs. It's Hiller's 14 ints. that have his coach in his face. Hawkeyes 9-2 "under" this season.
(DNP...SR: Western Michigan 1-0)
TEMPLE 26 - Kent State 20--Backup QBs face off in this one, as Temple's Vaughn Charlton (64% in '07; 238 YP & no ints. vs. Penn State last week) goes up against...??? Kent could be down to its fourth choice at QB, as true frosh Giorgio Morgan (the No. 3 QB forced up the ladder by attrition) left with an injury last week & didn't return. Golden Flashes were forced to use 4th-team soph Jon Brown, who was 16 of 34 in loss vs. NIU. Kent RB Eugene Jarvis is dangerous, but Owls already have 2 MAC wins at home.
(06-Kent St. 28-TEMPLE 17...K.26-11 K.49/208 T.25/50 K.15/28/1/207 T.14/26/0/144 K.1 T.1)
(06-Kent State -24 28-17...SR: Kent State 1-0)
GEORGIA TECH 31 - North Carolina 13--Blood feud vs. Georgia up next for Tech, and Atlanta scouts say HC Gailey probably needs to finally beat hated Bulldogs to have any chance at keeping his job. That potential "lookahead" notwithstanding, Jacket d.c. Tenuta's myriad blitzes vs. still-learning Tar Heel RS frosh QB Yates (13 ints., only 3 TDP in last 7 games) a troublesome matchup for visitor.
(06-Ga. Tech 7-UNC 0...G.15-12 G.44/143 N.23/55 N.13/34/2/156 G.10/24/1/78 G.1 N.0)
(06-Tech -13' 7-0 05-TECH -12' 27-21 04-UNC +8 34-13...SR: Georgia Tech 22-17-3)
MICHIGAN STATE 27 - Penn State 23--Michigan St. HC Dantonio managed to get his Spartans to reverse their history of late season failures with win at Purdue, and another victory would cement a bowl bid for MSU for the first time since '03. That was also the last time the Spartans beat Penn State. Nittany Lions just 1-6 vs. number last 7 on Big Ten road, and MSU scored 39 ppg in 3 conference home games thus far.
(06-PENN ST. 17-Msu 13...P.22-18 P.39/105 M.15/14 M.30/62/0/291 P.17/37/0/220 P.4 M.0)
(06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22 04-PSU +3' 37-13...SR: Penn State 12-11-1)
West Virginia 34 - CINCINNATI 23--Conflicting technical trends. Cincy (9-1 SU last 10 at Nippert) a dangerous dog, but confident West Va. (12-3 vs. spread last 15 away from Morgantown) seems to feed off hostile crowds. Outcome will likely hinge on which unit makes more big plays--opportunistic Bearcat defense (nation-leading 35 takeaways) or explosive Mountaineer offense. With inside track to Big East title, a measured vote for visiting WV and its quick-striking duo of QB White & RB Slaton.
(06-W. VA. 42-Cincy 24...C.20-13 W.38/313 C.31/57 C.23/41/3/310 W.8/14/0/98 W.0 C.1)
(06-WEST VIRGINIA -18 42-24 05-West Virginia -14 38-0...SR: West Virginia 13-1-1)
CONNECTICUT 35 - Syracuse 10--Grind-it-out UConn offense not made of the stuff to easily cover hefty imposts. Few reasons to support bedraggled Syracuse (6 losses by 21 or more TY), however. Solid defensive edge for Huskies (allowing just 15 ppg) over poor-tackling Orange, who have been trampled for 468 ypg.
(06-SYR. 20-Conn. 14...C.17-14 S.39/163 C.39/70 C.21/33/3/196 S.9/19/0/143 S.1 C.0)
(06-SYR. -1' 20-14 05-CONN. -6' 26-7 04-SYR. -3 42-30...SR: Syracuse 2-1)
INDIANA 30 - Purdue 27--Indiana QB Kellen Lewis has thrown for 558 yds. & 6 TDs in the last two games and has maximized the connection with 6-7 WR Hardy (15 recs.; 4 TDs). Can't knock the job Purdue QB Painter has done this season, but Boiler defense is susceptible to Lewis' run-pass dual threat. Old Oaken Bucket returns to Bloomington!
(06-PURDUE 28-Ind. 19...P.22-20 I.31/215 P.39/175 I.26/42/0/290 P.18/32/4/260 P.1 I.4)
(06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14 04-PURDUE -21 63-24...SR: Purdue 68-35-6)
NFL ANALYSIS
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18
JACKSONVILLE 20 - San Diego 16--Jags have hopes that QB David Garrard (high ankle sprain; check status) will return after missing 3 games. Jacksonville has lost hammering G Naeole for the rest of the season, while S.D. is without DE Castillo for several weeks, with def. coord. Cottrell attributing Adrian Peterson's record 296-yard performance two weeks ago largely to his absence. Note that S.D. 1-5 SU last 6 away and that Chargers are 5-4 TY by virtue of two return TDs vs. Colts plus a missed Vinatieri chip-shot FG. (04-S. DIEGO +2' 34-21...SR: EVEN 1-1)
INDIANAPOLIS 28 - Kansas City 10--Indy dominated LY's Wildcard meeting, stifling the K.C. offense (only total 126 yards; Larry Johnson 32 YR; check status). Colts laboring themselves a bit these days due to injuries suffered by key receivers Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark & Anthony Gonzalez & (check status), not to mention DE Dwight Freeney. But Indy 4-0 vs. number at home TY and fired up after back-to-back losses.
(06-INDY 23-K. City 8...I.28-7 I.40/188 K.17/44 I.31/39/3/247 K.14/24/2/82 I.0 K.1)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -7 23-8 (Playoffs)...SR: Indianapolis 11-7)
MINNESOTA 20 - Oakland 10--Battle of two teams searching for some high-quality NFL QBing (will Oakland soon take the wraps off JaMarcus Russell?). But even if big gun RB Adrian Peterson (1081 YR; knee exam pending, check status) out, Vikes have vet Chester Taylor (1216 YR in 2006) against the porous Raider run defense that has yielded 180 ypg rushing on the road TY. Relentless Minny G Steve Hutchinson eager to pound away at that group.
(03-OAKLAND +4' 28-18...SR: Oakland 9-3)
Cleveland 24 - BALTIMORE 17--There's no margin for error in Baltimore, especially after injury-nicked Ravens failed to capitalize on a soft early slate (check out the upcoming schedule!). Meanwhile, the offense continues to misfire, especially with Steve McNair (just 2 TDP) a shadow of his former self. Cleveland's credentials as a playoff contender (QB D. Anderson, once waived by Balt., now 20 TDP) solidified further by near-miss at Pittsburgh. Doubt McNair can do much more damage than first meeting, when his dinks proved mostly harmless in Browns' 27-13 win.
(07-CLE. 27-Balt. 13...B.16-12 B.20/111 C.30/99 B.34/53/1/307 C.10/18/1/204 C.0 B.1)
(06-Balt. 15-CLE. 14...B.18-17 B.27/86 C.19/38 B.23/41/0/254 C.21/33/1/250 B.0 C.1)
(06-BALT. 27-Cle. 17...B.14-13 B.35/142 C.16/68 B.13/25/1/231 C.23/33/2/168 B.2 C.0)
(07-CLEVE. +4 27-13; 06-Balt. -6' 15-14, BALT. -12 27-17...SR: Baltimore 11-6)
Pittsburgh 26 - N.Y. JETS 10 --The vilified Eric Mangini's switch to stronger-armed Kellen Clemens really not much more than a half-season audition that will determine if Jets need to pursue a new QB with as much as they need upgrades with defensive front 7 in offseason. And Clemens likely to find Steeler def. coord.'s Dick ******'s zone blitzes throughly confusing. "Bye" week not likely to improve spirits in glum NY locker room.
(04-PITTSBURGH -5 17-6, PITTSBURGH -9 20-17 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Pittsburgh 16-2)
Tampa Bay 20 - ATLANTA 13--Is the NFC South worse than the AFC or NFC West? And is it really possible Atlanta could become a factor in the division race? Even with Falcons at 3-6, we wouldn't completely rule out the latter, especially if the rejuvenated Warrick Dunn (189 YR last 2) continues to provide the infantry diversion that Joey Harrington needs to function, even at his low-watt power. But now that Earnest Graham has emerged as more than a stop-gap for injured Tampa Bay RBs, and Jeff Garcia functioning effectively at QB, Bucs' offensive competence gives them the edge.
(06-ATL. 14-T. Bay 3...22-22 A.44/306 T.16/40 T.28/53/3/311 A.10/16/1/76 A.1 T.0)
(06-Atl. 17-T. BAY 6...15-15 A.34/139 T.29/80 T.22/37/0/192 A.14/23/1/141 A.0 T.2)
(06-ATLANTA -5 14-3, Atlanta -3' 17-6...SR: Tampa Bay 15-12)
Arizona 30 - CINCINNATI 23--New Arizona HC Whisenhunt well familiar with the Bengals after spending the L6Ys as an assistant with the AFC North Steelers. Although tall, speedy WR Chris Henry back for Cincy, Bengals depletion on defense has seen them fall to 31st overall through Week Nine, and 28th vs. the run, which is good news to Edgerrin James (678 YR), who's keeping lots of pressure off Kurt Warner (3 TDP last week). Cardinals 9-2-1 last 12 as a dog, and "over" 20-6-1 last 27 on road.
(03-ARIZONA +3 17-14...SR: Cincinnati 5-3)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Miami 17--Is Miami HC Cam Cameron close to giving a shot to BYU rookie John Beck at QB? Even if not, his "triplets" of journeyman QB Cleo Lemon, RB Jesse Chatman (out of football LY), and rookie WR Ted Ginn Jr. are not what he had in mind when he took the job last winter. But it's not like 0-9 Dolphins are being regularly "run over," as 5 of their 9 losses have been by just 3 points! Chatman 124 YR last week vs. Bills, while Lemon had no interceptions. (03-Philadelphia +2' 34-27...SR: Miami 7-4)
*New England 26 - BUFFALO 16--A banana peel for 9-0 New England? We doubt it, because Buffalo doesn't have quite enough "O" (especially if rookie RB Lynch can't make post) to trade points. But with Sammy Morris out, some insiders wonder if Bill Belichick might regret not luring Corey Dillon out of retirement to provide the physical infantry component that could come in handy as weather deteriorates. Bills (5-0 as home dog TY; currently 6 straight covers overall) haven't dropped a spread decision since Sept. 23 at Foxborough (when QB Losman was KO'd in first series). TV--NBC
(07-N. ENG. 38-Buf. 7...N.27-12 N.38/177 B.27/110 N.23/29/0/308 B.11/21/1/83 N.1 B.1)
(06-N. ENG. 19-Buf. 17...N.19-12 N.41/183 B.24/99 B.15/23/0/141 N.11/23/1/136 N.1 B.0)
(06-N. Eng. 28-BUF. 6...N.18-13 N.27/94 B.25/75 B.16/25/1/181 N.18/27/0/171 N.0 B.2)
(07-N. ENG. -16' 38-7; 06-N. ENG. -9' 19-17, N. Eng. -5' 28-6...SR: New England 54-40-1)
DALLAS 30 - Washington 13--Both Tony Romo & Jason Campbell took over as their respective team's starting QBs in midseason LY, but Romo's development has been much greater. Moreover, he's arguably had better offensive support, especially TY by his big, healthy line, something not present in Washington. And kudos to off. coord. Jason Garrett for being able to get all of his offensive weapons (including "T.O." and split-duty RBs J. Jones & Barber) operating in mutual harmony (not easy in the NFL).
(06-DAL. 27-Wash. 10...D.22-16 D.31/138 W.20/93 D.19/38/0/229 W.18/33/1/152 D.1 W.0)
(06-WASH. 22-Dal. 19...D.21-18 W.32/117 D.29/111 D.24/36/0/267 W.14/23/0/183 W.1 D.0)
(06-DALLAS -6' 27-10, WASHINGTON +3 22-19...SR: Dallas 55-37-2)
OVER THE TOTAL New Orleans 34 - HOUSTON 24--The Saints' recent surge is being driven by QB Drew Brees (13 TDs, only 3 ints. the last 5 games), who has adapted well to the alterations made since the loss of power back Deuce McAllister. Meanwhile, Houston has lost six DBs for the season, including two starters. Andre Johnson (103 recs. LY; knee injury Week Two) is reportedly ready to return for the Texans. But that's not likely to be enough vs. Brees & mates, who are eager for their chances vs. Texan secondary.
(03-NEW ORLEANS -8 31-10...SR: New Orleans 1-0)
GREEN BAY 27 - Carolina 10--Panthers can't seem to win at home (six straight losses), but they have a "knack" on the road (4-1 SU; 6-1 vs. spread last 7). Too bad they're catching the Packers when G.B. is red hot (12-1 SU, 10-2-1 vs. spread last 13) and with the Panther QBs gimpy (sore-heeled Testaverde 13 of 28 last week). Pack making impressive in-season improvements at RB with Ryan Grant (278 YR last 3 games) and at WR with addition of Koren Robinson (5 recs. last week).
(05-CAROLINA -7' 32-29...SR: Green Bay 6-3)
NY Giants 31 - DETROIT 27--Not a good matchup for Jon Kitna and the Detroit OL, which has yielded a league-high 40 sacks, while the Giants front seven "hungry" for some after collecting only two last week vs. Dallas' well-protected Tony Romo. Kitna will get plenty of completions vs. the N.Y. secondary. But Giants' better balance (Lions minus 18 YR last week) will win the day, especially if Detroit starting CB Fernando Bryant (check foot injury) is out. (04-Detroit +7 28-13...SR: Detroit 21-17-1)
St. Louis 22 - SAN FRANCISCO 17--Last week's win should do wonders for the confidence of Rams, who have s-o-o-o-o many more weapons on offense than the limited 49ers, whose own OL is now ravaged by injuries (RG Justin Smiley, LT Jonas Jennings placed on IR last week). With Brian Leonard blocking for Steven Jackson & Antonio Pittman (combined 129 YR at New Orleans), QB Marc Bulger had just enough time to hit 27 of 33 in win vs. Saints.
(07-S. Frn. 17-ST. LOU. 16...St.20-8 Sf.28/89 St.23/61 St.24/41/0/331 Sf.11/17/0/97 Sf.2 St.3)
(06-S. FRN. 20-St. Lou. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)
(06-ST. LOU. 20-S. Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)
(07-S. Fran. +3 17-16; 06-S. FRAN. +3 20-13, ST. LOUIS -4' 20-17...SR: St. Louis 59-55-2)
Chicago 19 - SEATTLE 17--Payback time for the Seahawks, who lost in the Divisional Round in OT at Chicago LY? However, Seattle's progress hampered TY by WR injuries and by Shaun Alexander's decline (due in part to hand fracture) to 3.3 ypc. Could Rex Grossman (two late TD drives last week to beat Oakland) turn out to be the next young veteran QB to benefit from spending some time on the sidelines watching another in his job? The tools are there (except for Cedric Benson--3.0 ypc). Chicago 6-2-1 last 9 as reg.-season dog.
(06-CHI. 37-Sea. 6...C.21-14 C.38/143 S.19/77 C.17/31/0/219 S.17/37/2/153 C.0 S.0)
(06-CHI. 27-Sea. 24 (OT)...C.21-18 S.31/127 C.34/120 C.21/38/1/251 S.18/33/1/179 C.1 S.0)
(06-CHICAGO -3' 37-6, CHICAGO -9 27-24 (Playoffs-OT)...SR: Seattle 6-4)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19
*Tennessee 21 - DENVER 13--A potentially terrible matchup for Denver, which ranked last in rush defense through Week Nine, while the much-improved Tennessee defense was first. Both QBs Jay Cutler & Vince Young going through some growing pains vs. NFL defenses in their second seasons. But Vince's supporting cast much healthier, and RBs LenDale White & Chris Brown (from University of Colorado) provide the power that Denver hates TY, and 6-3 Titans eager to get back on track in AFC playoff chase after last week's loss. Tennessee 9-1-1 last 11 as a visitor overall, and 12-2-1 as an underdog since "V.Y." was elevated to the starting job. CABLE TV--ESPN
(04-Denver -4 37-16...SR: Tennessee 21-14-1
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Tennessee and Denver on Monday Night
Tennessee is 6-7 straight-up and 6-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
11-8 straight-up and 9-9-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 18-10-1 straight-up and 11-17-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the spread on the road on Monday Night Football.
NFL KEY RELEASES
ARIZONA by 7 over Cincinnati
TENNESSEE by 8 over Denver (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the New Orleans-Houston game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 8 3 4-5 5-3-1 5-4 21-22 3-1 21-20 2-2 21-23
Atlanta 9 1 3-6 6-3 2-7 15-20 2-2 19-23 4-1 12-18
Baltimore- 10 1 4-5 1-8 3-4 15-20 1-3 19-15 0-5 13-24
Buffalo+ 8 3 5-4 7-2 3-6 16-18 5-0 21-18 2-2 9-19
Carolina- 11 2 4-5 4-5 2-7 17-20 0-4 12-26 4-1 20-15
Chicago 9 2 4-5 3-6 4-5 18-21 0-4 17-24 3-2 19-19
Cincinnati+ 9 2 3-6 4-5 5-4 24-28 2-2 23-27 2-3 26-28
Cleveland 8 3 5-4 7-2 8-0 28-29 4-1 32-31 3-1 24-28
Dallas -1 3 8-1 7-2 7-2 33-22 3-1 33-26 4-1 33-18
Denver 7 2 4-5 2-7 7-2 17-26 1-4 17-26 1-3 17-27
Detroit 8 4 6-3 5-3-1 5-4 25-24 3-0 31-17 2-3 19-30
Green Bay+ 3 5 8-1 7-1-1 5-4 25-16 3-1 24-16 4-0 28-16
Houston 9 2 4-5 4-5 5-3 23-25 2-2 26-23 2-3 20-27
Indianapolis -2 3 7-2 6-3 3-6 29-17 4-0 33-17 2-3 27-16
Jacksonville 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-4 20-18 1-3 17-17 4-1 23-20
Kansas City 10 3 4-5 4-4-1 4-5 15-19 1-3 16-21 3-1 14-17
Miami 13 2 0-9 2-5-2 5-4 20-29 0-4 19-34 1-1 23-28
Minnesota 10 2 3-6 3-4-2 4-5 18-21 2-2 23-17 1-2 15-24
New England -9 5 9-0 8-1 7-2 39-16 4-0 41-11 4-1 39-20
New Orleans- 6 3 4-5 3-6 5-3 22-25 1-4 24-25 2-2 21-25
NY Giants 5 3 6-3 5-4 5-3 24-21 3-2 23-22 2-1 30-24
NY Jets 13 2 1-8 2-6-1 5-3 18-25 1-3 15-24 1-3 21-28
Oakland 13 1 2-7 3-6 4-5 18-22 0-5 16-23 3-1 20-20
Philadelphia 7 3 4-5 4-5 4-5 21-20 1-3 25-25 3-2 18-16
Pittsburgh 3 4 7-2 6-3 5-4 28-14 4-1 31-11 2-2 25-18
St. Louis+ 12 2 1-8 2-7 3-6 15-28 1-3 20-26 1-4 11-29
San Diego 3 4 5-4 5-4 5-3 24-21 4-1 23-16 1-3 24-27
San Francisco 13 1 2-6 2-5-1 3-5 13-23 1-2 10-20 1-3 16-27
Seattle 8 4 4-4 3-5 3-5 21-18 2-2 24-15 1-3 18-20
Tampa Bay 7 4 5-4 4-4-1 3-6 18-16 3-1 22-12 1-3 14-21
Tennessee 6 2 6-3 5-3-1 2-6 20-17 2-3 17-16 3-0 23-18
Washington 9 3 5-4 2-5-2 4-4 20-21 1-3 23-18 1-2 16-25
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *?indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P?Pick Game. SR?Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL?No Line. OPR?Average Opponents? Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC?Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). ?O??Offense. ?D??Defense. DDs?Double Digits. OL?Offensive Line or Lineman. DL?Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.?Offensive Coordinator. d.c.?Defensive Coordinator. YR?Yards Rushing. YP?Yards Passing. recs.?Receptions. ints.?Interceptions. STs?Special Teams. ypg?Yards per Game. ppg?Points per Game. ypc?Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY?Last Year. TY?This Year. Y?Year or Years. TDP?Touchdown Passes. FA?Free Agent. SU?Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15
*Oregon 34 - ARIZONA 26--Will Oregon be the next victim of the "Top Two" curse? Probably not, especially with QB D. Dixon expected to be ready after brief knee injury scare vs. Arizona State Nov. 3. But Ducks might have to sweat a little vs. Mike Stoops' rejuvenated UA bunch that has more than held its own in recent series meetings. Wildcat QB Tuitama (24 TDP) getting more and more comfy with Sonny Dykes' Texas Tech-like spread. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-Ariz. 37-ORE. 10...O.18-16 A.45/230 O.26/163 O.25/45/4/183 A.9/14/0/133 A.0 O.2)
(06-Ariz. +13' 37-10 05-Ore. -10' 28-21 04-ORE. -11' 28-14...SR: Oregon 19-12)
ADDED GAME
*ARKANSAS STATE 47 - North Texas 37--With a succession of basketball-like scores (allowed 66 or more three times in nine games!) blurring the distinction between UNT gridders and Johnny Jones' Mean Green hoopsters, can't get too excited about visitors. ASU "O" has exploited the lesser stop units on its schedule, but UNT's "Dodge Ball" offense gaining confidence with every game.
(06-ARK. ST. 29-N. Tex. 10...A.23-13 A.51/279 N.31/160 A.11/19/0/187 N.11/16/1/103 A.0 N.1)
(06-ASU -10 29-10 05-Asu -2' 31-24 04-Ntu -5 31-7...SR: EVEN 8-8)
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 16
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 36 - Eastern Michigan 27--Look for EMU to gather itself for a major effort in this battle for the Michigan MAC Trophy. Eagle QB Andy Schmitt has thrown 7 TD passes & no ints. in his last 4 games, and RB Pierre Walker has 399 YR & 4 TDs in his last 3. The EMU defense is better than Central's, which ranks 113th in the country, and Chippewas have already clinched a spot in MAC title game.
(06-Cmu 24-EMU 17 (OT)...E.25-24 E.47/188 C.33/176 C.27/42/1/276 E.22/32/0/157 C.0 E.0)
(06-Cm -4' 24-17 (OT) 05-Em +5' 23-20 (OT) 04-Em +1' 61-58 (OT) Ford Field...SR: CMU 53-25-6)
*NEVADA 38 - Hawaii 37--Trips to Reno have been the bane of recent Hawaii teams, which haven't won or covered at Mackay Stadium since Nevada joined WAC. And in potentially adverse weather conditions, June Jones' Red Gun might not function as well as Chris Ault's Pistol, which can slam away with north-south RB Lippincott (5.5 ypc). Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick (13 TDP and 5 rush TDs in 4-plus games as starter) almost matching Colt Brennan's (check status) recent stats. And, remember, Warriors needed OT before prevailing at both La Tech & SJSU. CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-HAWAII 41-Nevada 34...H.28-25 H.24/160 N.25/108 H.36/47/0/419 N.26/36/0/364 H.2 N.2)
(06-HAWAII -12 41-34 05-NEVADA -5 38-28 04-HAWAII -18 48-26...SR: Nevada 6-5)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 17
IOWA 30 - Western Michigan 10--Iowa's defense has put Hawkeyes in a position to virtually clinch a bowl bid with a win in this finale. WMU has just 1 cover this season, and Bronco HC Bill Cubit isn't happy with QB Hiller's performance despite 2378 YP & 16 TDs. It's Hiller's 14 ints. that have his coach in his face. Hawkeyes 9-2 "under" this season.
(DNP...SR: Western Michigan 1-0)
TEMPLE 26 - Kent State 20--Backup QBs face off in this one, as Temple's Vaughn Charlton (64% in '07; 238 YP & no ints. vs. Penn State last week) goes up against...??? Kent could be down to its fourth choice at QB, as true frosh Giorgio Morgan (the No. 3 QB forced up the ladder by attrition) left with an injury last week & didn't return. Golden Flashes were forced to use 4th-team soph Jon Brown, who was 16 of 34 in loss vs. NIU. Kent RB Eugene Jarvis is dangerous, but Owls already have 2 MAC wins at home.
(06-Kent St. 28-TEMPLE 17...K.26-11 K.49/208 T.25/50 K.15/28/1/207 T.14/26/0/144 K.1 T.1)
(06-Kent State -24 28-17...SR: Kent State 1-0)
GEORGIA TECH 31 - North Carolina 13--Blood feud vs. Georgia up next for Tech, and Atlanta scouts say HC Gailey probably needs to finally beat hated Bulldogs to have any chance at keeping his job. That potential "lookahead" notwithstanding, Jacket d.c. Tenuta's myriad blitzes vs. still-learning Tar Heel RS frosh QB Yates (13 ints., only 3 TDP in last 7 games) a troublesome matchup for visitor.
(06-Ga. Tech 7-UNC 0...G.15-12 G.44/143 N.23/55 N.13/34/2/156 G.10/24/1/78 G.1 N.0)
(06-Tech -13' 7-0 05-TECH -12' 27-21 04-UNC +8 34-13...SR: Georgia Tech 22-17-3)
MICHIGAN STATE 27 - Penn State 23--Michigan St. HC Dantonio managed to get his Spartans to reverse their history of late season failures with win at Purdue, and another victory would cement a bowl bid for MSU for the first time since '03. That was also the last time the Spartans beat Penn State. Nittany Lions just 1-6 vs. number last 7 on Big Ten road, and MSU scored 39 ppg in 3 conference home games thus far.
(06-PENN ST. 17-Msu 13...P.22-18 P.39/105 M.15/14 M.30/62/0/291 P.17/37/0/220 P.4 M.0)
(06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22 04-PSU +3' 37-13...SR: Penn State 12-11-1)
West Virginia 34 - CINCINNATI 23--Conflicting technical trends. Cincy (9-1 SU last 10 at Nippert) a dangerous dog, but confident West Va. (12-3 vs. spread last 15 away from Morgantown) seems to feed off hostile crowds. Outcome will likely hinge on which unit makes more big plays--opportunistic Bearcat defense (nation-leading 35 takeaways) or explosive Mountaineer offense. With inside track to Big East title, a measured vote for visiting WV and its quick-striking duo of QB White & RB Slaton.
(06-W. VA. 42-Cincy 24...C.20-13 W.38/313 C.31/57 C.23/41/3/310 W.8/14/0/98 W.0 C.1)
(06-WEST VIRGINIA -18 42-24 05-West Virginia -14 38-0...SR: West Virginia 13-1-1)
CONNECTICUT 35 - Syracuse 10--Grind-it-out UConn offense not made of the stuff to easily cover hefty imposts. Few reasons to support bedraggled Syracuse (6 losses by 21 or more TY), however. Solid defensive edge for Huskies (allowing just 15 ppg) over poor-tackling Orange, who have been trampled for 468 ypg.
(06-SYR. 20-Conn. 14...C.17-14 S.39/163 C.39/70 C.21/33/3/196 S.9/19/0/143 S.1 C.0)
(06-SYR. -1' 20-14 05-CONN. -6' 26-7 04-SYR. -3 42-30...SR: Syracuse 2-1)
INDIANA 30 - Purdue 27--Indiana QB Kellen Lewis has thrown for 558 yds. & 6 TDs in the last two games and has maximized the connection with 6-7 WR Hardy (15 recs.; 4 TDs). Can't knock the job Purdue QB Painter has done this season, but Boiler defense is susceptible to Lewis' run-pass dual threat. Old Oaken Bucket returns to Bloomington!
(06-PURDUE 28-Ind. 19...P.22-20 I.31/215 P.39/175 I.26/42/0/290 P.18/32/4/260 P.1 I.4)
(06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14 04-PURDUE -21 63-24...SR: Purdue 68-35-6)
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