update on Stocks in 2013 predictions thread

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Since we are in the 8th month of the year, thought would look at some of the stocks and if I still own them, and what I think of them now.

XLF then $17.15 now $19.83 (pays 1.55% annual yield)
15.62% plus div

have sold 75% of the position above $17. believe I can buy it it back cheaper, keep 25% just in case it goes higher.

WFC $33.50/$34 $42.30 25% not counting div. 2.82% annual yield

sold half of my WFC, have sold covered calls on 25% of the remaining position. looking to buy 38-40
or lower.


CF $7.25 $6.51 -10.20% loss 3.04% annual yield
most US brokerages did well this one Canadian brokerage never did, trades below nav, has operations in US and Great Britain, but largely cdn. and relies on cdn. natural resources mid cap and jr. ipo market is dead.

have sold it for 6.75, but will be buying back in the low $6 range, probably use options, buy it covered calls or some puts, options on Montreal are not bad.

was wrong on how bad the jr. mid cap mining and energy companies would do, no one wants them, and the IPO market which was brutal in 2012, is probably worse in 2013. most are ignored. CF is cheap but will be flat to down, so will buy at a lower level.

TCK.b tck $37.73 $26.89 cdn. (3.27% yield)

this play has not worked out well, sold most of the positons for a 10% loss. still have some in the cdn. account, and the US account. have sold many calls against my postion in the cdn. account, and calls against puts in the US account that are in the money, and also sold some uncovered calls in the cdn. and the US.

TCK numbers were actually good, and balance sheet is good, debt is low, however met coal (for steel production), is dead, and copper looks like it will be below 3.50.

will continue to sell more calls covered and uncovered calls to reduce my costs. will update at the end of the year, this may do well. My biggest mistake is not sure why I own this in both my US and cdn. accounts, should only be in one.

F 11.80 bought in, 13.50 predictions thread, $15 target, now $16.2506 high 17.68.

sold 75% of my positon at $17, keep the 25% of my position, and have covered calls, against the position.

the autos still look good however looking to buy back some below $16, and hopefully $15, if not may sell some puts.

Reits stated that this well loved sector had seen its day, still like some reits but 2013 would be rough for the sector and expect a sell off.
mentioned 2 reits and another one, larger postion. all are lower.
Reits on Toronto
ax.un 15.42 now 13.64 yields 7.91%
d.un 37.09 28.95 yields 7.78%
rei.un 27.50 24.23 yields 5.81%

all are lower, these are good value, sold out most of my positions, last week, bought a small positon at 28.50. this was dumb as they are all going lower.

sold most of my postions early in the year, still own some of all 3 but 25% of former postions.
these are all good solid yields plays, however wait, and you will get them even cheaper. they are going on sale.

thanks
selkirk
 
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selkirk

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Facebook FB $31.20 now $38.52 23.46%
still like FB sold 50% at $37, and have sold covered calls on 25% of the positon.

MFC 14.09 now 16.42 annual 3.01% yield
SLF 27.68 now 32.97 annual 4.36% yield

own MFC and SLF these have done okay have sold 50% of my positions. these will follow the market, have sold some trying to get back some on pullbacks.

emerging markets disappointed suggested buying DvYE
which yields 6.97% then 56.81 now 46.9601.

and Indonesia 28.23 now 23.05

sold dvye at $50 and indonesia $25. emerging markets have done dreadfully bad, resources have done bad many are based on this.

ie. brazil. still love dvye, and like Indonesia. however if Qe3 comes to the end, or wind down. and rates slowly increase, then investors will leave emerging markets. so will not invest in emerging markets until oct. or later.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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in the past prediction thread thought food inflation would could hit 3-5%, this will be wrong.

wheat and corn crop are going to set records, corn prices will probably stay here or go lower.

as for wheat prices, they will (probably ) go lower, name the nation and they will have a great (record) crop.

oil should probably be below $100, however with trouble there is a premium. so believe oil should be in the 90-100 range.

thought gold would trade in a range, this range will be slightly lower than the $2000. for the rest of the year gold will be 1100-1500.

the german elections will go well, and food inflation will not be a problem, also oil will be level to down for the rest of the year.

interest rates will rise, hopefully not much, but that will still be a head wind for gold.

at the end of the day probably still a worried bull. the markets have plenty of risks but will probably still climb a wall or worry. Europe and the german elections will be watched.

if interest rates rise slowly then the bull market should continue.

thanks
selkirk
 
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selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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well FB is still making a good run, sold some puts on the stock.

have sold covered calls on CNQ (cnd. natural resources) the calls are close to the current price and in Oct. believe oil drops. so will collect the premiums and wait.

Cdn. banks have all reported their quarterly numbers and for the most part they were good to great. some US hedge funds wanted to short the cdn. banks expecting a Canadian real estate bubble. shorting cdn. banks can be very dangerous and should be avoided.

would rate them short term holds and long term buys.

thanks
selkirk
 
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