Goldsheet Picks
- Thread starter Skipper
- Start date
I kept their stuff from last year. I will take a look later when time permits but they did have a good year last year.
HORNS
HORNS
I used to get all the newsletters back in the 80's, when wagers were placed either in Vegas or with a local book, when there were only newsletters and late phone services. It's so totally amazing how things have changed since the Internet.
Anyway, most of these newsletters have some good years and some bad years. Some are more consistent than others. I don't personally know how they are different now, but I'll bet than in essence they are not much different than they were then.
During those days the GoldSheet hit somewhere around 50-55%. That's pretty average. A few did better, a lot did worse. I remember Pointwise never got above around 47%. I used to wonder why anyone would subscribe to it. My favorites at that time were Winning Points and Sports Reporter. Remember, this was in the 80's. They are all probably totally different these days.
I doubt seriously if any newsletter will make you rich. They usually a service's "grade B plays." You have to pay a lot more for the premium, grade A plays that the service fully believes in.
You have guys on this site who consistently hit a higher percentage than most newsletters, or even most "premium" services for that matter.
Maybe this is relevant to what you asked, maybe not -- just thought I'd share a certain perspective.
Hope you have a great year, man!
Anyway, most of these newsletters have some good years and some bad years. Some are more consistent than others. I don't personally know how they are different now, but I'll bet than in essence they are not much different than they were then.
During those days the GoldSheet hit somewhere around 50-55%. That's pretty average. A few did better, a lot did worse. I remember Pointwise never got above around 47%. I used to wonder why anyone would subscribe to it. My favorites at that time were Winning Points and Sports Reporter. Remember, this was in the 80's. They are all probably totally different these days.
I doubt seriously if any newsletter will make you rich. They usually a service's "grade B plays." You have to pay a lot more for the premium, grade A plays that the service fully believes in.
You have guys on this site who consistently hit a higher percentage than most newsletters, or even most "premium" services for that matter.
Maybe this is relevant to what you asked, maybe not -- just thought I'd share a certain perspective.
Hope you have a great year, man!
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I dont mean to pollute this thread but has any one delt with
blackchip sports. I regularly check there freebe to compare
breakdown of games. They seem pretty reliable and consistant.
:shrug:
blackchip sports. I regularly check there freebe to compare
breakdown of games. They seem pretty reliable and consistant.
:shrug:
Was a gold sheet subscriber for a long time. Lots of good info but would tend to use it that way instead of their actual picks.
THE GOLD SHEET
Key Releases
WISCONSIN by 15 over West Virginia (Sat., Aug. 30)
FRESNO STATE Plus over Tennessee (Sat., Aug. 30)
KENTUCKY by 17 over Louisville (Sun., Aug. 31)
The Gold Sheet Technical Play of the Week
VANDERBILT over Ole Miss...Rebs 3-10 vs. line under HC Cutcliffe as DD chalk, and Dores covered all 3 as Vandy Stadium dog in ?02.
RICE over Houston...Dog has covered last 3 in local rivalry, Cougs 1-7 last 8 as chalk overall, and Owl HC Hatfield 13-1 vs. number last 14 as dog within city limits.
UCONN over Indiana...Huskies 16-5 vs. points since ?01, while Hoosiers 8-16vs. mark as dog since ?00.
NORTH TEXAS over Oklahoma...Mean Green 16- 8 vs. spread since ?01; Sooners 3-7 last 10 laying 24 or more.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 28
*Maryland 27 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23 ?Clever Maryland HC Friedgen (19-6 vs. spread in his first 2 seasons!) won?t unveil whole package with trip to Fla. State on tap. And,Terps suffered several preseason injuries (see Special Ticker). Stingy UM defense will keep NIU star RB Turner (1915 YR, 20 TDs LY) from running wild. But seasoned QB Haldi & sr. WR Fleck should help with enough plays to keep Huskies close. (DNP...SR: Maryland 1-0)
*Miami-Florida 44 - LOUISIANA TECH 10 ?True, Miami has date with Florida up next. But scouts report proud Hurricanes eager to make early statement after losing national title game LY. Miami?s offensive weaponry & defensive speed will make this a happy homecoming for rocket-armed new QB Brock Berlin (Shreveport native). (at Shreveport, La.) CABLE TV?ESPN(00-MIAMI-FLORIDA -40' 42-31...SR: Miami-Florida 2-0)
*AKRON 31 - Kent State 26 ? Akron offense returns all 11 starters and most of its backups, including pinpoint jr. QB Frye (66% LY!). But insiders say defense has been torched by Zips? practice stand-in for versatile Kent jr. QB Cribbs (2076 career rush yards). And Cribbs has reportedly quickly absorbed controlled pass attack of new o.c. Martin (formerly at E. Carolina). Flashes have lost 6 straight to their in-state MAC rivals.
*BYU 31 - Georgia Tech 21 ?BYU slipped LY (1st losing season since ?73!) following 12-2 mark in ?01, but expect proud Cougs to quickly erase bad taste in revenge game vs. GT. Engineers 2nd-year HC Gailey ( TGS scouts say he?s already on shaky ground) missing 10 players due to academics, and he?ll probably be without sackmeister DE Geathers (see Ticker). Look for BYU?s much-improved 6-6 soph QB Berry & speedier group of WRs to expose revamped GT 2ndary (only 1 starter back). Meanwhile, expect new,unorthodox 3-3-5 Coug ?D? (under new d.c. Mendenhall from N.M.) to humble Engineers cocky true frosh QB Ball, making his debut in Provo?s thin air. Huge kicking edge to BYU?s accurate P/PK Payne (13 of 16 FGs LY). TV?ESPN2(02-GA. TECH 28-Byu 19...B.21-19 G.50/210 B.27/79 B.28/57/3/274 G.11/26/3/117 G.0 B.1)(02-GEORGIA TECH -10 28-19...SR: Georgia Tech 1-0)
ADDED GAME
*UTAH 34 - Utah State 10 ?Regional sources nticipate brief period of adjustment for Utah offense that?s still adapting to new HC Meyer?s preferred spread formations. But they?re also convinced that talent-shy USU stop unit (ranked 111th LY) presents perfect confidence-enhancing opportunities for whoever wins 3-headed Ute QB derby. And unlikely USU keeps pace with untested jr. Cox now piloting attack. (02-Utah 23-UTAH ST. 3...U.26-9 U.53/282 S.16/9 S.19/42/1/171 U.16/30/0/165 U.0 S.1)(02-Utah -11' 23-3 01-UTAH -9 23-19 00-Utah -11' 35-14...SR: Utah 70-28-4)
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POINTWISE COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MIAMI-OHIO over Iowa
1* PENN STATE over Temple
2* NEBRASKA over Oklahoma State
3* VANDERBILT over Mississippi
4* GEORGIA over Clemson
4* BUFFALO over Rutgers
5* DUKE over Virginia
5* BRIGHAM YOUNG over Georgia Tech
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THE SUNSHINE FORCAST
Warren Repole first published his newsletter The Sunshine Forecast in 1984. Focusing exclusively on football with selections based on computer power ratings and historical angles, Warren has earned the 3rd most top 10 football rankings (54) for handicappers monitored by Sports Watch from 1993 to 2002.
College Regular Season
Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 30 Georgia -4 @ Clemson
August 30 Western Michigan +13 @ Michigan State
NFL Pre-Season
Overall record: 9-4, 69.2%
Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 29 Denver Broncos -3? vs Seattle Seahawks
August 29 San Francisco 49ers +1? @ San Diego Chargers
August 28 Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs New York Jets
August 28 Cleveland Browns -3? vs Atlanta Falcons
Key Releases
WISCONSIN by 15 over West Virginia (Sat., Aug. 30)
FRESNO STATE Plus over Tennessee (Sat., Aug. 30)
KENTUCKY by 17 over Louisville (Sun., Aug. 31)
The Gold Sheet Technical Play of the Week
VANDERBILT over Ole Miss...Rebs 3-10 vs. line under HC Cutcliffe as DD chalk, and Dores covered all 3 as Vandy Stadium dog in ?02.
RICE over Houston...Dog has covered last 3 in local rivalry, Cougs 1-7 last 8 as chalk overall, and Owl HC Hatfield 13-1 vs. number last 14 as dog within city limits.
UCONN over Indiana...Huskies 16-5 vs. points since ?01, while Hoosiers 8-16vs. mark as dog since ?00.
NORTH TEXAS over Oklahoma...Mean Green 16- 8 vs. spread since ?01; Sooners 3-7 last 10 laying 24 or more.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 28
*Maryland 27 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23 ?Clever Maryland HC Friedgen (19-6 vs. spread in his first 2 seasons!) won?t unveil whole package with trip to Fla. State on tap. And,Terps suffered several preseason injuries (see Special Ticker). Stingy UM defense will keep NIU star RB Turner (1915 YR, 20 TDs LY) from running wild. But seasoned QB Haldi & sr. WR Fleck should help with enough plays to keep Huskies close. (DNP...SR: Maryland 1-0)
*Miami-Florida 44 - LOUISIANA TECH 10 ?True, Miami has date with Florida up next. But scouts report proud Hurricanes eager to make early statement after losing national title game LY. Miami?s offensive weaponry & defensive speed will make this a happy homecoming for rocket-armed new QB Brock Berlin (Shreveport native). (at Shreveport, La.) CABLE TV?ESPN(00-MIAMI-FLORIDA -40' 42-31...SR: Miami-Florida 2-0)
*AKRON 31 - Kent State 26 ? Akron offense returns all 11 starters and most of its backups, including pinpoint jr. QB Frye (66% LY!). But insiders say defense has been torched by Zips? practice stand-in for versatile Kent jr. QB Cribbs (2076 career rush yards). And Cribbs has reportedly quickly absorbed controlled pass attack of new o.c. Martin (formerly at E. Carolina). Flashes have lost 6 straight to their in-state MAC rivals.
*BYU 31 - Georgia Tech 21 ?BYU slipped LY (1st losing season since ?73!) following 12-2 mark in ?01, but expect proud Cougs to quickly erase bad taste in revenge game vs. GT. Engineers 2nd-year HC Gailey ( TGS scouts say he?s already on shaky ground) missing 10 players due to academics, and he?ll probably be without sackmeister DE Geathers (see Ticker). Look for BYU?s much-improved 6-6 soph QB Berry & speedier group of WRs to expose revamped GT 2ndary (only 1 starter back). Meanwhile, expect new,unorthodox 3-3-5 Coug ?D? (under new d.c. Mendenhall from N.M.) to humble Engineers cocky true frosh QB Ball, making his debut in Provo?s thin air. Huge kicking edge to BYU?s accurate P/PK Payne (13 of 16 FGs LY). TV?ESPN2(02-GA. TECH 28-Byu 19...B.21-19 G.50/210 B.27/79 B.28/57/3/274 G.11/26/3/117 G.0 B.1)(02-GEORGIA TECH -10 28-19...SR: Georgia Tech 1-0)
ADDED GAME
*UTAH 34 - Utah State 10 ?Regional sources nticipate brief period of adjustment for Utah offense that?s still adapting to new HC Meyer?s preferred spread formations. But they?re also convinced that talent-shy USU stop unit (ranked 111th LY) presents perfect confidence-enhancing opportunities for whoever wins 3-headed Ute QB derby. And unlikely USU keeps pace with untested jr. Cox now piloting attack. (02-Utah 23-UTAH ST. 3...U.26-9 U.53/282 S.16/9 S.19/42/1/171 U.16/30/0/165 U.0 S.1)(02-Utah -11' 23-3 01-UTAH -9 23-19 00-Utah -11' 35-14...SR: Utah 70-28-4)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POINTWISE COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MIAMI-OHIO over Iowa
1* PENN STATE over Temple
2* NEBRASKA over Oklahoma State
3* VANDERBILT over Mississippi
4* GEORGIA over Clemson
4* BUFFALO over Rutgers
5* DUKE over Virginia
5* BRIGHAM YOUNG over Georgia Tech
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE SUNSHINE FORCAST
Warren Repole first published his newsletter The Sunshine Forecast in 1984. Focusing exclusively on football with selections based on computer power ratings and historical angles, Warren has earned the 3rd most top 10 football rankings (54) for handicappers monitored by Sports Watch from 1993 to 2002.
College Regular Season
Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 30 Georgia -4 @ Clemson
August 30 Western Michigan +13 @ Michigan State
NFL Pre-Season
Overall record: 9-4, 69.2%
Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 29 Denver Broncos -3? vs Seattle Seahawks
August 29 San Francisco 49ers +1? @ San Diego Chargers
August 28 Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs New York Jets
August 28 Cleveland Browns -3? vs Atlanta Falcons
Scott4USC what are your thoughts on the big game coming up?
I feel that the best way to get this or any game is to listen to the ones that have watched their respected teams most of the time have the best insight.
I feel that the best way to get this or any game is to listen to the ones that have watched their respected teams most of the time have the best insight.
Chewbaca said:
I tried them a few times a couple of years ago. They don't steal your money and seem to do pretty well, as I recall.
I am taking USC ML over AU. I am pretty confident in my Trojans and putting a med. size wager. The few question marks and playing on the road are preventing me from betting USC ML BIG.
If you want my reasons just search the board and i have written plenty of write-ups on my Trojans.
FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you want my reasons just search the board and i have written plenty of write-ups on my Trojans.
FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's because you are a Trojan Fan. I like your bet.
Enjoy Kentucky -6 over Louisville. Happy Gaming
Enjoy Kentucky -6 over Louisville. Happy Gaming
Goldsheet last year was 22-14 on key releases but I am missing 2 or 3 weeks of plays. So they are hitting over 60% of their plays. Wish I had more results.
HORNS
HORNS
I have used the gold sheet now for around 10 years. Their info is great and easy to read. However, would not recommend betting key releases. As someone mentioned earlier, their picks will only keep you about even.
Records
Records
Gold sheet is around 52-55% almost every year with their key selections, but if you were interested in performace, their CKO publication has been very strong over the last few years. Last year they were around 60%.
Records
Gold sheet is around 52-55% almost every year with their key selections, but if you were interested in performace, their CKO publication has been very strong over the last few years. Last year they were around 60%.
Phil Steele's Preseason College Top 40
Phil Steele's Preseason College Top 40
Here is my 2003 Preseason Top 40. Two quick notes: First of all, my preseason rankings are not my power ratings. As an example - LSU is not rated in the Top 20 in any of my 7 sets of power ratings, but due to a manageable schedule I have them #11 overall and two of my sets of ratings show them going 12-0. My talent ratings only rate Hawaii #52 overall, but they made the list due to their softer schedule as they face just one of my Top 25 teams (USC). My Top 25 is based on how I project the teams to finish in the final rankings and these Top 25?s have always done quite well. Last year, of my Top 25 teams, 24 of them had records good enough to become bowl eligible. Of the Top 40 teams, an amazing 35 of the 40 were bowl eligible (including 32 of the top 34). While no one had Ohio St. winning the national title last year, I am happy to report that I had Ohio St. rated higher than any other preseason magazine coming into the year. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season.
1. Ohio St. - The defending national champs return all 11 starters on offense, 6 more on defense and have the Heisman frontrunner in RB Maurice Clarett. They will be favored in their first 11 games and then they travel to Ann Arbor in what could be a battle of the unbeatens. Only one team in the country ranks in my Top 25 in all 8 position categories (see pages 12-15) and that is the Buckeyes. Last year the team depended on its defense, but this year they will have a potent offense to go along with their Top-10 defense. They have 8 home games this year and make just 4 road trips. Tressel has proven he knows how to win it all (5 championships at 1A & 1AA).
2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are loaded once again and will try to grab their 2nd national title in 4 years under Stoops. OU has my #1-rated defense this year and that makes them very dangerous. They should be favored in all 12 games this year with the biggest test being Texas (in the Cotton Bowl), but OU has won 3 straight in that series. The non-conference schedule is manageable and they have only 4 games on opponents? home fields this year. OU has won the Rose, Cotton and Orange Bowls. Now can they win the Sugar Bowl?
3. Texas - I know, Mack Brown can?t win the big game. The same thing was said about both Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne for years before they finally broke through. Texas has the #2 defense in the country and will be favored in all their games this year with the exception of the Oklahoma game at the Cotton Bowl. They are loaded with VHTs on both sides of the ball, thanks to Brown?s recruiting prowess. Now can they get past the Sooners?
4. Michigan - Michigan is one of the few teams in the country that rank in my Top 10 in both offense (#4) and defense (#9). I have the Wolverines favored in their first 11, which would set the scene for a huge game vs. Ohio St. This would bring back memories of some of the undefeated matchups between Bo and Woody in this rivalry. John Navarre could be this year?s Carson Palmer (5th-year senior who has a huge year). This team is solid along the lines.
5. Pittsburgh - This team reminds me of last year?s Ohio St. team. The Buckeyes were not even in the preseason Top 10, nor were they rated higher than 9 by anyone in the country except for my #7 preseason ranking. I mentioned last year that OSU did not rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent, but 3 of my 7 sets of Power Ratings had them going undefeated. You can make that same exact statement about the Panthers this year. They host 3 Top 10-caliber teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but are capable of winning those 3 and going undefeated.
6. Virginia Tech - The Hokies were supposed to be a year away from contending last season but opened 8-0 and were #3 in the country at one point. They then lost 4 games down the stretch. This year they are ready to contend for the title. They have my #5-rated defense and a much-improved offense. They get Miami in Blacksburg in early November (should be cold) and their road game vs. Pitt the next week will determine whether they can go unbeaten. The Hokies will be favored in the rest of their games. They rank in my Top 25 in 7-of-8 position categories and came close in the other category.
7. Miami, Fl. - How tough is this Big East?? How can I possibly rate the Hurricanes 3rd in the league? Well this ranking tells you I consider them a national title contender. They have my #3-rated offense and #7-rated defense. The Hurricanes do have a couple of tough trips in November to cold-weather sites vs. Top 10 teams (VT and Pitt). They will also have to battle Florida St. on the road and Florida and Tennessee at home. This team has set a record for the amount of NFL draft picks overall in the last three years, but still has a lot of talent left.
8. Tennessee - Here is a value team for this year. The Vols were wiped out by injuries last year, but get most of those injured players back this year along with their replacements. Look for a much better year from QB Casey Clausen as he and his offensive mates will be healthier, and on defense, the LBs could be special. They do have to travel to the Swamp and also face Miami on the road, but are my favorite to win the SEC.
9. Washington - The Huskies have my #7-rated offense and #19-rated defense and only face the 48th-toughest schedule this year. Their toughest game of the season is the opener at Ohio St., but they are capable of winning the rest of their games down the stretch. They get to host USC, which looks like the key matchup in the Pac 10. They also have a veteran senior QB, which is usually the right formula for winning the Pac 10.
10. USC - The Trojans were the strongest team in the country down the stretch last year that did not play in the national title game, as they wiped out UCLA, Notre Dame and Iowa by a combined 134-51 margin. They do lose 10 starters including QB Carson Palmer, but I definitely took notice that two of my 7 sets of power ratings have them the #1-rated team in the NCAA! Just like last year they have a killer schedule with trips to Notre Dame, Auburn, Arizona St. and Washington.
11. LSU - Everyone is looking for this year?s Ohio St., and just like I mentioned in the Pitt writeup, this could be one of the contenders. None of my 7 sets of Power Ratings list the Tigers in the Top 10, but two have them going a perfect 12-0. Their toughest road trips are to Alabama and Mississippi, but both of those are winnable. They only face the 47th-toughest schedule and most of their toughest games are at home in Death Valley.
12. Nebraska - Last year was a record-breaking year, but not the kind of records that NU wanted. Their streak of being ranked in the Top 25 for 348 weeks, as well as their streak of 33 years of 9-or-more wins, both went by the wayside. I think Jamaal Lord will do a fine job guiding a much more potent NU offense. The Blackshirt defense should regain its swagger. Solich gets off the hot seat as NU returns to the top.
13. Florida St. - If not for last year, I definitely would have ranked FSU in the Top 10 and rated them a major national title contender. As I write the magazine, there is an ongoing NCAA investigation. Some players may be suspended in the next few months. Last year I thought they would return to the top but they finished just 9-5. I think Chris Rix will do a fine job. This team does have my #5-rated offense and #8-rated defense. If they regain their swagger, they could go undefeated, even with road trips to Florida and Notre Dame.
14. Kansas St. - The Wildcats were clearly one of the best teams in the NCAA down the stretch last year. For the season they outscored their foes by an average of 44.8-11.8!!!! QB Ell Roberson is a Heisman candidate and Snyder always relies on JUCO?s, so having 12 starters back is a lot for his team. KSU ranks in my Top 15 on both sides of the ball and needs to win at Texas and Nebraska to vault into national title contention. They will be favored in their other 11 games.
15. Auburn - The Tigers rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent this year, with the best set of RBs in the land. They have my #8 offense with a veteran QB, and a tough ?D? led by my #4 set of linebackers. The road team dominates in the series with Georgia, so playing, ?Between the Hedges? may not turn out to be that bad. They also have road trips to LSU and Arkansas lurking.
16. NC State - The Wolfpack had a nice finish last year whipping Florida St. and Notre Dame by a combined 45-13 in the last 2 games. QB Philip Rivers leads my #10 offense and the defense looks solid. They have road trips to Ohio St. and Florida St., but have shown they can knock off the big boys.
17. Georgia - The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year?s #3-ranked team, but are still loaded. They do have a tough schedule with LSU and Tennessee on the road, along with their yearly trip to Jacksonville to face Richt?s last remaining stumbling block (the Gators). Still, the Dawgs should have another big year.
18. Maryland - The Terps have the talent (#12 overall) and the schedule (#61) to make some noise. They should be favored in 10-of-12 games and need a road win vs. Florida St. or NC St. to move up. Fear the Turtle.
19. Notre Dame - The Irish have my #4-rated defense, and as they showed last year, they can play with anyone under Willingham. They have to play Michigan, Purdue and Pitt all on the road, but should be strong overall.
20. Purdue - The Boilermakers led the Big 10 in offense and defense, but were just 6-6 during the regular season due to turnovers. This year they are loaded and have the talent to win the Big 10, but must face Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio St. all on the road.
Phil Steele's Preseason College Top 40
Here is my 2003 Preseason Top 40. Two quick notes: First of all, my preseason rankings are not my power ratings. As an example - LSU is not rated in the Top 20 in any of my 7 sets of power ratings, but due to a manageable schedule I have them #11 overall and two of my sets of ratings show them going 12-0. My talent ratings only rate Hawaii #52 overall, but they made the list due to their softer schedule as they face just one of my Top 25 teams (USC). My Top 25 is based on how I project the teams to finish in the final rankings and these Top 25?s have always done quite well. Last year, of my Top 25 teams, 24 of them had records good enough to become bowl eligible. Of the Top 40 teams, an amazing 35 of the 40 were bowl eligible (including 32 of the top 34). While no one had Ohio St. winning the national title last year, I am happy to report that I had Ohio St. rated higher than any other preseason magazine coming into the year. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season.
1. Ohio St. - The defending national champs return all 11 starters on offense, 6 more on defense and have the Heisman frontrunner in RB Maurice Clarett. They will be favored in their first 11 games and then they travel to Ann Arbor in what could be a battle of the unbeatens. Only one team in the country ranks in my Top 25 in all 8 position categories (see pages 12-15) and that is the Buckeyes. Last year the team depended on its defense, but this year they will have a potent offense to go along with their Top-10 defense. They have 8 home games this year and make just 4 road trips. Tressel has proven he knows how to win it all (5 championships at 1A & 1AA).
2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are loaded once again and will try to grab their 2nd national title in 4 years under Stoops. OU has my #1-rated defense this year and that makes them very dangerous. They should be favored in all 12 games this year with the biggest test being Texas (in the Cotton Bowl), but OU has won 3 straight in that series. The non-conference schedule is manageable and they have only 4 games on opponents? home fields this year. OU has won the Rose, Cotton and Orange Bowls. Now can they win the Sugar Bowl?
3. Texas - I know, Mack Brown can?t win the big game. The same thing was said about both Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne for years before they finally broke through. Texas has the #2 defense in the country and will be favored in all their games this year with the exception of the Oklahoma game at the Cotton Bowl. They are loaded with VHTs on both sides of the ball, thanks to Brown?s recruiting prowess. Now can they get past the Sooners?
4. Michigan - Michigan is one of the few teams in the country that rank in my Top 10 in both offense (#4) and defense (#9). I have the Wolverines favored in their first 11, which would set the scene for a huge game vs. Ohio St. This would bring back memories of some of the undefeated matchups between Bo and Woody in this rivalry. John Navarre could be this year?s Carson Palmer (5th-year senior who has a huge year). This team is solid along the lines.
5. Pittsburgh - This team reminds me of last year?s Ohio St. team. The Buckeyes were not even in the preseason Top 10, nor were they rated higher than 9 by anyone in the country except for my #7 preseason ranking. I mentioned last year that OSU did not rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent, but 3 of my 7 sets of Power Ratings had them going undefeated. You can make that same exact statement about the Panthers this year. They host 3 Top 10-caliber teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but are capable of winning those 3 and going undefeated.
6. Virginia Tech - The Hokies were supposed to be a year away from contending last season but opened 8-0 and were #3 in the country at one point. They then lost 4 games down the stretch. This year they are ready to contend for the title. They have my #5-rated defense and a much-improved offense. They get Miami in Blacksburg in early November (should be cold) and their road game vs. Pitt the next week will determine whether they can go unbeaten. The Hokies will be favored in the rest of their games. They rank in my Top 25 in 7-of-8 position categories and came close in the other category.
7. Miami, Fl. - How tough is this Big East?? How can I possibly rate the Hurricanes 3rd in the league? Well this ranking tells you I consider them a national title contender. They have my #3-rated offense and #7-rated defense. The Hurricanes do have a couple of tough trips in November to cold-weather sites vs. Top 10 teams (VT and Pitt). They will also have to battle Florida St. on the road and Florida and Tennessee at home. This team has set a record for the amount of NFL draft picks overall in the last three years, but still has a lot of talent left.
8. Tennessee - Here is a value team for this year. The Vols were wiped out by injuries last year, but get most of those injured players back this year along with their replacements. Look for a much better year from QB Casey Clausen as he and his offensive mates will be healthier, and on defense, the LBs could be special. They do have to travel to the Swamp and also face Miami on the road, but are my favorite to win the SEC.
9. Washington - The Huskies have my #7-rated offense and #19-rated defense and only face the 48th-toughest schedule this year. Their toughest game of the season is the opener at Ohio St., but they are capable of winning the rest of their games down the stretch. They get to host USC, which looks like the key matchup in the Pac 10. They also have a veteran senior QB, which is usually the right formula for winning the Pac 10.
10. USC - The Trojans were the strongest team in the country down the stretch last year that did not play in the national title game, as they wiped out UCLA, Notre Dame and Iowa by a combined 134-51 margin. They do lose 10 starters including QB Carson Palmer, but I definitely took notice that two of my 7 sets of power ratings have them the #1-rated team in the NCAA! Just like last year they have a killer schedule with trips to Notre Dame, Auburn, Arizona St. and Washington.
11. LSU - Everyone is looking for this year?s Ohio St., and just like I mentioned in the Pitt writeup, this could be one of the contenders. None of my 7 sets of Power Ratings list the Tigers in the Top 10, but two have them going a perfect 12-0. Their toughest road trips are to Alabama and Mississippi, but both of those are winnable. They only face the 47th-toughest schedule and most of their toughest games are at home in Death Valley.
12. Nebraska - Last year was a record-breaking year, but not the kind of records that NU wanted. Their streak of being ranked in the Top 25 for 348 weeks, as well as their streak of 33 years of 9-or-more wins, both went by the wayside. I think Jamaal Lord will do a fine job guiding a much more potent NU offense. The Blackshirt defense should regain its swagger. Solich gets off the hot seat as NU returns to the top.
13. Florida St. - If not for last year, I definitely would have ranked FSU in the Top 10 and rated them a major national title contender. As I write the magazine, there is an ongoing NCAA investigation. Some players may be suspended in the next few months. Last year I thought they would return to the top but they finished just 9-5. I think Chris Rix will do a fine job. This team does have my #5-rated offense and #8-rated defense. If they regain their swagger, they could go undefeated, even with road trips to Florida and Notre Dame.
14. Kansas St. - The Wildcats were clearly one of the best teams in the NCAA down the stretch last year. For the season they outscored their foes by an average of 44.8-11.8!!!! QB Ell Roberson is a Heisman candidate and Snyder always relies on JUCO?s, so having 12 starters back is a lot for his team. KSU ranks in my Top 15 on both sides of the ball and needs to win at Texas and Nebraska to vault into national title contention. They will be favored in their other 11 games.
15. Auburn - The Tigers rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent this year, with the best set of RBs in the land. They have my #8 offense with a veteran QB, and a tough ?D? led by my #4 set of linebackers. The road team dominates in the series with Georgia, so playing, ?Between the Hedges? may not turn out to be that bad. They also have road trips to LSU and Arkansas lurking.
16. NC State - The Wolfpack had a nice finish last year whipping Florida St. and Notre Dame by a combined 45-13 in the last 2 games. QB Philip Rivers leads my #10 offense and the defense looks solid. They have road trips to Ohio St. and Florida St., but have shown they can knock off the big boys.
17. Georgia - The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year?s #3-ranked team, but are still loaded. They do have a tough schedule with LSU and Tennessee on the road, along with their yearly trip to Jacksonville to face Richt?s last remaining stumbling block (the Gators). Still, the Dawgs should have another big year.
18. Maryland - The Terps have the talent (#12 overall) and the schedule (#61) to make some noise. They should be favored in 10-of-12 games and need a road win vs. Florida St. or NC St. to move up. Fear the Turtle.
19. Notre Dame - The Irish have my #4-rated defense, and as they showed last year, they can play with anyone under Willingham. They have to play Michigan, Purdue and Pitt all on the road, but should be strong overall.
20. Purdue - The Boilermakers led the Big 10 in offense and defense, but were just 6-6 during the regular season due to turnovers. This year they are loaded and have the talent to win the Big 10, but must face Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio St. all on the road.
Phil's 21 - 40 picks
Phil's 21 - 40 picks
21. Wisconsin - The Badgers have their best team in 4 years and a schedule to challenge for the Big 10 title. They have a soft non-conference slate, avoid Michigan and host Ohio St. Alvarez knows a thing or two (or three) about getting to and winning Rose Bowls (he has won 3).
22. Mississippi - Eli Manning guides the best Rebel edition in over a decade. They have 5 road games this year and will be favored in 3 of them, so it could be a big year if they take care of business at home.
23. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ended up in the SEC title game as I projected last year. They could repeat with my #10-rated defense, which includes an excellent set of DBs. They do have 4 tough road games this year to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, but could surprise yet again.
24. Penn St. - The Lions may suffer from Draft Day Party Hangover, and may get fewer friendly bounces after being +14 last year in turnovers. They still have plenty of talent, but topping last year?s 9-3 regular season will be tough.
25. TCU - The Frogs were the best team in CUSA last year and even took home the Liberty Bowl trophy. They have a top-notch defense and if QB Tye Gunn stays healthy, the offense could help them to a 2nd straight CUSA title.
26. Hawaii - The Warriors are only my #52 team in terms of talent, but play in the WAC and will rack up a lot of wins. They are assured of at least a berth in the Hawaii Bowl if eligible.
27. Virginia - Al Groh did a tremendous job with a very young team last year. This year those very talented players have experience. They add a lot more VHTs and will be an ACC contender.
28. UCLA - The Bruins do have a rookie head coach, but he inherits a talented team that was hurt by injuries last year. They do have 4 very tough road games vs. Colorado, Oklahoma, Washington St. and USC, but they will do fine.
29. Colorado St. - Sonny Lubick has done a tremendous job here and I rate his squad as my favorite to get to yet another Liberty Bowl. QB Bradlee Van Pelt should lead a potent offense.
30. Boise St. - Ryan Dinwiddie was sensational when healthy last year. This team is strong year-in and year-out. Despite just 3 starters returning on offense, they will be potent. The ?D? has 7 starters returning.
31. Oregon St. - Despite the coaching change, OSU has QB Anderson and RB Jackson among 9 starters returning on offense. Their defense can be nasty and looks solid again.
32. Florida - I have NEVER picked the Gators anywhere near this low in the rankings, but they have a tough schedule with road trips to Miami, LSU, Arkansas, S. Carolina and Georgia in Jacksonville. They also face Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida St. at home in a rebuilding year.
33. Iowa - What a great year for the Hawkeyes last year! This year they must replace 11 starters including QB Brad Banks and 5 players who were NFL draft selections. Overall, they are still a solid team even with the losses.
34. Arizona St. - Andrew Walter had a great year despite not starting until the 5th game and having little time to throw. He has a stronger O-Line in front of him this year. ASU takes another step forward.
35. Oklahoma St. - The Cowboys used 2001?s upset of Oklahoma to give them confidence for 2002. They not only upset the Sooners once again, but also won their bowl game. QB Fields and WR Woods give them an explosive offense, and the defense is solid.
36. Minnesota - Once again the Gophers should get off to a great start thanks to a creampuff non-conference schedule. This year they are a little bigger up front on defense and will have a solid offense that continues to make strides in Big 10 play.
37. Fresno St. - The Bulldogs now have an experienced QB and welcome back WR Berrian, who missed last year with an injury. They also have some big boys on the schedule and showed in 2001 that they are capable of knocking off BCS-caliber teams.
38. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles used to rule in CUSA play, but have not done so for the last 3 years. This year they could return to the top with my #20-rated defense. The offense should be improved with a more veteran signal caller.
39. Missouri - The Tigers have exciting QB Brad Smith and have come close the last few years. Their third year with Gary Pinkel should be their breakthrough year.
40. Air Force - This could be one of Fisher DeBerry?s most experienced and hence, best teams yet. QB Harridge should have a fine senior season, and the defense is much stronger.
Phil's 21 - 40 picks
21. Wisconsin - The Badgers have their best team in 4 years and a schedule to challenge for the Big 10 title. They have a soft non-conference slate, avoid Michigan and host Ohio St. Alvarez knows a thing or two (or three) about getting to and winning Rose Bowls (he has won 3).
22. Mississippi - Eli Manning guides the best Rebel edition in over a decade. They have 5 road games this year and will be favored in 3 of them, so it could be a big year if they take care of business at home.
23. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ended up in the SEC title game as I projected last year. They could repeat with my #10-rated defense, which includes an excellent set of DBs. They do have 4 tough road games this year to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, but could surprise yet again.
24. Penn St. - The Lions may suffer from Draft Day Party Hangover, and may get fewer friendly bounces after being +14 last year in turnovers. They still have plenty of talent, but topping last year?s 9-3 regular season will be tough.
25. TCU - The Frogs were the best team in CUSA last year and even took home the Liberty Bowl trophy. They have a top-notch defense and if QB Tye Gunn stays healthy, the offense could help them to a 2nd straight CUSA title.
26. Hawaii - The Warriors are only my #52 team in terms of talent, but play in the WAC and will rack up a lot of wins. They are assured of at least a berth in the Hawaii Bowl if eligible.
27. Virginia - Al Groh did a tremendous job with a very young team last year. This year those very talented players have experience. They add a lot more VHTs and will be an ACC contender.
28. UCLA - The Bruins do have a rookie head coach, but he inherits a talented team that was hurt by injuries last year. They do have 4 very tough road games vs. Colorado, Oklahoma, Washington St. and USC, but they will do fine.
29. Colorado St. - Sonny Lubick has done a tremendous job here and I rate his squad as my favorite to get to yet another Liberty Bowl. QB Bradlee Van Pelt should lead a potent offense.
30. Boise St. - Ryan Dinwiddie was sensational when healthy last year. This team is strong year-in and year-out. Despite just 3 starters returning on offense, they will be potent. The ?D? has 7 starters returning.
31. Oregon St. - Despite the coaching change, OSU has QB Anderson and RB Jackson among 9 starters returning on offense. Their defense can be nasty and looks solid again.
32. Florida - I have NEVER picked the Gators anywhere near this low in the rankings, but they have a tough schedule with road trips to Miami, LSU, Arkansas, S. Carolina and Georgia in Jacksonville. They also face Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida St. at home in a rebuilding year.
33. Iowa - What a great year for the Hawkeyes last year! This year they must replace 11 starters including QB Brad Banks and 5 players who were NFL draft selections. Overall, they are still a solid team even with the losses.
34. Arizona St. - Andrew Walter had a great year despite not starting until the 5th game and having little time to throw. He has a stronger O-Line in front of him this year. ASU takes another step forward.
35. Oklahoma St. - The Cowboys used 2001?s upset of Oklahoma to give them confidence for 2002. They not only upset the Sooners once again, but also won their bowl game. QB Fields and WR Woods give them an explosive offense, and the defense is solid.
36. Minnesota - Once again the Gophers should get off to a great start thanks to a creampuff non-conference schedule. This year they are a little bigger up front on defense and will have a solid offense that continues to make strides in Big 10 play.
37. Fresno St. - The Bulldogs now have an experienced QB and welcome back WR Berrian, who missed last year with an injury. They also have some big boys on the schedule and showed in 2001 that they are capable of knocking off BCS-caliber teams.
38. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles used to rule in CUSA play, but have not done so for the last 3 years. This year they could return to the top with my #20-rated defense. The offense should be improved with a more veteran signal caller.
39. Missouri - The Tigers have exciting QB Brad Smith and have come close the last few years. Their third year with Gary Pinkel should be their breakthrough year.
40. Air Force - This could be one of Fisher DeBerry?s most experienced and hence, best teams yet. QB Harridge should have a fine senior season, and the defense is much stronger.
