Friday: Toledo at UNLV (+1) - Analysis

RightAngle

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Play for Friday night:

Toledo at UNLV (+1) - 6:00pm Pacific - Friday, August 29
UNLV could not have been in any worse emotional shape when the visited Toledo last season. They were coming off a humiliating 47-17 loss at Oregon State and it was quite evident that highly touted QB Jason Thomas (12-for-26, 2 interceptions, 2 fumbles in game one vs Wisconsin, 7-for-15, 1 interception in game three vs Oreegon State) would again be a big disappointment in his senior season. Thomas had amazing raw talent but could not read defenses well and had a very erratic arm. Despite his struggles, head coach Robinson felt obligated to keep playing his senior QB. Thomas continued his ineffective and sloppy play in game four vs Toledo as the Rockets started four of their first five drives inside UNLV territory en route to a 24-0 half-time lead. Toledo added a two yard TD drive and an interception return for a touchdown in the second half leading to a seemingly decisive 38-21 final score even though UNLV ended with a 472-to-257 total yard edge.

Thanfully for the Rebels, the Jason Thomas era is over. Taking over will be junior QB Kurt Nantkes who led UNLV to an upset road win over 13th ranked Colorado State (16-for-26, 2 touchdowns) in the finale last season making him the clear cut starter this year and giving UNLV some much needed positive momentum heading into the off-season. Nantkes, a father of a four year old son, played profressional baseball for two years and is older and more mature than most college players. He is well focused, can read defenses well, and has a strong arm. Reports indicate he has been sharp in preaseon scrimmages despite missing some practice time due to a minor foot injury. Nantkes also led a 95 yard scoring drive in mop up duty vs Toledo in meeting last season. UNLV now finally has a QB who can stretch defenses, open up the running game, and get the ball in the hands of their talented skill position players. Highly recruited leading WR Earvin Johnson has flourished with Nantkes at QB. Johnson dominated in the win at CSU with 12 catches for 132 yards and also topped 100 receiving yards vs Toledo when Nantkes saw significant action as a backup. With subsequent practice time together this could develop into a potent pass and catch combo. The Rebels have a fine stable of running backs ready to break loose once a pass offense can be established featuring starter Larry Croom (7.2ypc last year, former Arizona transfer, 222 yards vs CSU in finale), Dominique Dorsey (speedy scat back, slowed by injury last year but still averaged 7.3ypc), Deon Burnett (former freshman standout at Washington State), and highly touted JC transfer Alvin Marshall (called the Marshall Faulk of JC, 2,054 all-purpose yards a year ago.) UNLV actually led the MWC and was 22nd nationally in total offense at 409 yards per game last season despite poor QB play, but were only 78th in scoring offense. With better play from the QB, an abundance of talent at the skill positions, and three returning starters on a said to be bigger & stronger offensive lne, this unit should put up plenty of points.

The Rebel defense will be switching to a 3-4 alignment this year to take advantage of their great depth at linebacker and improved overall team speed. This unit features some fine playmakers in MWC defensive player of the year strong safety Jamaal Brimmer, leading tackler LB Adam Seward, JC All-American transfer LB John Andrews, and stud LB Ryan Claridge (brother of NFL's Travis) returns after missing all of last year with injury. Insiders have raved about the talent at LB and report that the new starting cornerbacks will be a major upgrade from last years starting dup that only produced a combined seven pass break ups and just three interceptions.

Toledo returns just four starters on offense, their fewest number in over ten years. They must replace super QB Brian Jones who threw for 3,446 yards and completed an NCAA best 70.2% of his passes last year. Their top three WR's have departed including schools all time leader Donta Greene and NFL pick Carl Ford. They also lost two starters on the offensive line including 1st team all-MAC center Chris Tuminello. It was not until five days before kickoff that Rockets head coach named sophomore Bruce Gradkowski as the starting QB. Reports indicate that both QB's will see significant action. This has to be a negative for Toledo as neither QB has been able to set himself apart and there will be confidence issues with each QB looking over his shoulder for the other to replace him. The Rocket defense is somewhat experienced with eight returning starters, but must somehow replace two standout 1st team all-MAC linebackers in Tom Ward (180 tackles) & David Gardner (154 tackles) who were by far their top two leading tacklers a season ago. The Rockets have some tough shoes to fill on both sides of the ball.

Toldeo went 0-2 SU & ATS in its two non-conference road games last season. UNLV first year receivers coach Garrick McGee served the same position at Toledo last season and surely will provide some helping insight on this opponent. Head coach Robinson also hired good friend and former ASU head coach Bruce Snyder as an assistant. There is definitely a sense of urgency this year in Vegas. Head coach Robinson called this preseason camp the best of his tenure while players called it their most grueling despite new NCAA rules that limit two a day practices. Look for the Rebels to avenge last years debacle at Toledo and open their season on a positive note with a win here.

UNLV 1 UNIT


Good luck,

Edward
 

pt1gard

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HI ED, thanx

HI ED, thanx

great write up as usual ...

was curious if you think UNLV's DL will stand up to Rockets 4 Returning OL that go 300+ #s .... steele's mag lists OT Kaczur as 1st team all mac and their other Tackle and Guard on 2nd team, calling toledo's OL the best in conf

unlv's D gave up 49 and 48 in their last 2 home games vs AF and Wy... Seems like rockets might be sloping downward, but Im a lil scared backing Rebs D

Robinson is 1-6 ATS last 7 at home, 4-11 ATS overall; might be time to get great value esp. with rookie rocket QB starting on rd. ...

Hope U win and once again thanx for the fine research

gl
gregg
 

RightAngle

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Hey Gregg,

I'm willing to throw UNLV's season out the window. Their QB was miserable and they played uninspired football all year. Their group of LB's on defense is as good as any Pac-10 team right now and the secondary is much improved. The defense will not be nearly as weak as it was in the last two home games you mentioned.

I think its interesting how receiver coach Garrick McGee comes over from Toledo. He is certainly going to shed some light on Toledo's offense.

This is UNLV's third straight nationally televised season opener. They are 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS even though Wisky game didn't count last year. I think its time they win one of these.



Edward
 

pt1gard

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like james brown

like james brown

UR the hardest working man in show business, ED

might follow ya on unlv, even Steeles mag said this might be the time rockets start to dip

have a great holiday,
gregg
 

RightAngle

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UNLV SUSPENSIONS

Three players will miss Toledo game. It definitely is not good news but if UNLV can choose which ones will miss it should not be a big factor. Someone on the UNLV message board said all freshman were involved, but just who the players are remains a mystery.


Edward
 

RightAngle

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Suspension Update

Three players will miss tonights game for the Rebels. The lone significant loss is the teams best WR Earvin Johnson. He was preseason 1st team MWC and will be missed. The other two players are said to be non-factors. I still like UNLV to win tonight but this is clearly a negative.

The game is still off the board at most books, but I suspect we will see a line of Toledo -2 posted shortly.



Edward
 

IX_Bender

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Pk and -1s are out there.


With only the one game tonight it should receive some significant action. Most likely a no play for myself, but will pass along some info.


"It has altered (the game plan) significantly because we put our whole passing plan around Earv in camp because he's such a weapon," quarterback Kurt Nantkes said. "We don't feel like we have a huge loss, though, because our running backs are so good. Our (offensive) line has been looking great. We still have (Michael Johnson) to throw to and David Relf and those guys.
 

RightAngle

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I would have been upset if UNLV did not pull this one out. Toledo did not really deserve any of their points.

Glad to start the season off on a positive note!


Edward
 

JEFF

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Nice call Edward. You must have been on the right side, because UNLV is the dumbest team I've ever seen and they still won.
 
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