Maryland(-8) vs. Northern Illinios
3* Maryland -8
Tonight's game seems like another classic spot for the MAC to flex its underappreciated muscles against a squad from a BCS league. In the past two years alone, we have seen Northern Illinois knock off Wake Forest, Toledo down Minnesota and Temple, Bowling Green take out Missouri (twice), Temple, and Kansas, and Miami (OH) down North Carolina. All of these games took place early in the season (Weeks 1 or 2), and the country has grown used to seeing the so-called "Giant Killers" from the MAC. All this has the country talking of yet another upset happening tonight.....but complete handicappers dig a bit deeper.
The first thing that we realized is that the talent level of the teams involved in the past matchups were very even. The MAC teams were the top teams in the league, and they were playing teams that were in the middle of the pack or the basement in the BCS conferences (Minnesota, Wake, Temple, Kansas, UNC). That said, Northern Illinois is undoubtably one of the big dogs in the MAC this year. They possess 13 returning starters (7 on "O", 6 on "D"), along with stud RB Michael Turner. They are an experienced team and the Terrapins won't take lightly-a team who reeled off 7 wins out of their last 8, lost to Wisconsin by only 3 (actually out-ganied the Badgers 455-275), upset #16 Bowling Green, and should have beaten Toledo at home in their final game to win the MAC West. The Huskies are hungry, experienced, and will garner all the respect of Maryland in their season opener.
On the flip side of this coin, Maryland is NOT a middle of the pack team. What does this team have to do to recieve the respect it deserves? Maryland is 11-2 ATS as a fav over a non/conf last 13 and 15-2 ATS as a favorite under the Fridge!!! They return 9 starters on defense which ranked 7th in the nation in points allowed. Take away the abberation of a game vs Virginia (they allowed 48 points), and you can see how formidable this unit will be this season. The return of all 4 experienced defensive backs should keep QB Haldi in check while allowing them to focus on Turner. There will be improvements on both sides of the ball for Maryland this year and we look for the offense to capitalize on a Northern Illinois team who allows teams to score 25-35 against them on a regular basis.
Maryland is 19-6 ATS since the Fridge took over and, again, a staggering 15-2 ATS under him when favored! What this tells us is that when he plays a team with less talent he's a master at exploiting their weaknesses, as they don't just win, they cover. Maryland is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when favored over a non/conf foe. While there are defensive concerns on "O" for the Terps, Bruce Perry has a capable back up as Josh Allen ran for a 6.8 yard average during his fill in duty last season for Maryland and they have depth at this positon. Wrapping this one up, the Huskies are breaking in 3 new OL, and this will be a problem against Maryland, which allowed only 3.4 ypc last year, despite playing a non-conference schedule that included Notre Dame, WVU, and Tennessee. In fact, only 2 teams averaged more than 4 ypc against the Terps (Wake and Ga Tech). Shutting down the WVU attack is notable, as they were #2 in the NCAA in ypg (286) and averaged 5.2 ypc. Against the Terps, they gained only 186 yards and 3.3 ypc. Turner will be kept in check, and the Terps roll.
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BYU(-3.5) vs Georgia Tech
2* BYU -3.5
Some of the biggest factors here should be Georgia Tech introducing a freshman QB on the road in the season opener against a BYU defense that only allowed 173.3 yards per game last season. The Cougars return 10 starters on this unit, and that type of continuity should really stand out against such an inexperienced offense. The new 3-3-5 set implemented by Bronco Mendenhall should give opposing units a tough time with movement and blitzing schemes designed to confuse opponents. Offensively, BYU returns decent QB Berry and are solid both at WR and RB and they should have an improved line in front of them this year as they've recruited well here and moved a few guys around.
Tech is a mess as Chan Gailey is already on the hot seat. Gailey has decided to start true frosh Reggie Ball at QB, and they have no experienced wideouts or RB's. Additionally, Tech lost 10 players from last years team to academic suspensions (including expected starting running back Tony Hollings). Along with this setback, the Yellow Jackets have a very thin defensive front, no proven playmakers on offense, and a lot of inexperienced freshmen in the line up. A trip out West to play a good team in the altitude is probably too much to ask for them this early in the year.
Add in the home field advantage, the revenge factor (BYU lost to Georgia Tech last year 19-28), an improved and experienced defense, and a defining edge in the QB and special teams positions should spell a win and cover for the BYU Cougars.
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Good luck to everybody tonight and have a great Labor Day weekend!
3* Maryland -8
Tonight's game seems like another classic spot for the MAC to flex its underappreciated muscles against a squad from a BCS league. In the past two years alone, we have seen Northern Illinois knock off Wake Forest, Toledo down Minnesota and Temple, Bowling Green take out Missouri (twice), Temple, and Kansas, and Miami (OH) down North Carolina. All of these games took place early in the season (Weeks 1 or 2), and the country has grown used to seeing the so-called "Giant Killers" from the MAC. All this has the country talking of yet another upset happening tonight.....but complete handicappers dig a bit deeper.
The first thing that we realized is that the talent level of the teams involved in the past matchups were very even. The MAC teams were the top teams in the league, and they were playing teams that were in the middle of the pack or the basement in the BCS conferences (Minnesota, Wake, Temple, Kansas, UNC). That said, Northern Illinois is undoubtably one of the big dogs in the MAC this year. They possess 13 returning starters (7 on "O", 6 on "D"), along with stud RB Michael Turner. They are an experienced team and the Terrapins won't take lightly-a team who reeled off 7 wins out of their last 8, lost to Wisconsin by only 3 (actually out-ganied the Badgers 455-275), upset #16 Bowling Green, and should have beaten Toledo at home in their final game to win the MAC West. The Huskies are hungry, experienced, and will garner all the respect of Maryland in their season opener.
On the flip side of this coin, Maryland is NOT a middle of the pack team. What does this team have to do to recieve the respect it deserves? Maryland is 11-2 ATS as a fav over a non/conf last 13 and 15-2 ATS as a favorite under the Fridge!!! They return 9 starters on defense which ranked 7th in the nation in points allowed. Take away the abberation of a game vs Virginia (they allowed 48 points), and you can see how formidable this unit will be this season. The return of all 4 experienced defensive backs should keep QB Haldi in check while allowing them to focus on Turner. There will be improvements on both sides of the ball for Maryland this year and we look for the offense to capitalize on a Northern Illinois team who allows teams to score 25-35 against them on a regular basis.
Maryland is 19-6 ATS since the Fridge took over and, again, a staggering 15-2 ATS under him when favored! What this tells us is that when he plays a team with less talent he's a master at exploiting their weaknesses, as they don't just win, they cover. Maryland is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when favored over a non/conf foe. While there are defensive concerns on "O" for the Terps, Bruce Perry has a capable back up as Josh Allen ran for a 6.8 yard average during his fill in duty last season for Maryland and they have depth at this positon. Wrapping this one up, the Huskies are breaking in 3 new OL, and this will be a problem against Maryland, which allowed only 3.4 ypc last year, despite playing a non-conference schedule that included Notre Dame, WVU, and Tennessee. In fact, only 2 teams averaged more than 4 ypc against the Terps (Wake and Ga Tech). Shutting down the WVU attack is notable, as they were #2 in the NCAA in ypg (286) and averaged 5.2 ypc. Against the Terps, they gained only 186 yards and 3.3 ypc. Turner will be kept in check, and the Terps roll.
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BYU(-3.5) vs Georgia Tech
2* BYU -3.5
Some of the biggest factors here should be Georgia Tech introducing a freshman QB on the road in the season opener against a BYU defense that only allowed 173.3 yards per game last season. The Cougars return 10 starters on this unit, and that type of continuity should really stand out against such an inexperienced offense. The new 3-3-5 set implemented by Bronco Mendenhall should give opposing units a tough time with movement and blitzing schemes designed to confuse opponents. Offensively, BYU returns decent QB Berry and are solid both at WR and RB and they should have an improved line in front of them this year as they've recruited well here and moved a few guys around.
Tech is a mess as Chan Gailey is already on the hot seat. Gailey has decided to start true frosh Reggie Ball at QB, and they have no experienced wideouts or RB's. Additionally, Tech lost 10 players from last years team to academic suspensions (including expected starting running back Tony Hollings). Along with this setback, the Yellow Jackets have a very thin defensive front, no proven playmakers on offense, and a lot of inexperienced freshmen in the line up. A trip out West to play a good team in the altitude is probably too much to ask for them this early in the year.
Add in the home field advantage, the revenge factor (BYU lost to Georgia Tech last year 19-28), an improved and experienced defense, and a defining edge in the QB and special teams positions should spell a win and cover for the BYU Cougars.
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Good luck to everybody tonight and have a great Labor Day weekend!
