I don't like giving extra weight to some football games over others, but this is an unusual situation this week. More on that in this report:
This will very likely mark my first losing pre-season in five years. I've always considered pre-season easier to beat than the regular season (many reason for this) but my angles have not worked out on these games. Again, you have to use entirely different methods for pre-season games. No excuses, I'm just taking repsonsibility for some losing plays and wrong advice.
Nevertheless,
I'm tremednously excited by the start of the regular season. However, I see a number of tempting plays this wek, including what looks to be perhaps the strongest play of the 2003 NFL preseason in my opinion.
I am posting the entire DAILY REPORT here, since Jack may be traveling these days. Let's end this with a winner and get ready for 2003!
THURSDAY REPORT:
NEW: A NOTE ABOUT THE FINAL WEEK OF NFL PRE-SEASON
Be careful when betting in the final week of pre-season. Be particularly cautious when you read posts with listed trends for the final week, that is, unless there is a large amount of data to back up the hypothesis. Short-term data can be very misleading -- especially on these pre-season games.
Case in point:
It makes perfect sense that dogs would be the wiser bets in the final week of pre-season. After all, since starters are expected to play only a limited amount of time (a quarter at most), that makes the final week of pre-season even more unpredictable. So, you are better off taking points with the dogs -- or so the theory goes.
To support this theory -- take a look at last year's pre-season. In 2002, the dogs cashed 10 times and lost of just 5 times in the final week of play. That's pretty impressive, hitting 66 percent without doing any handicapping whatsoever. Someone e-mailed me some data on this (which I appreciate, by the way) and that triggered a bit of additional research on my part.
I decided that if I could go back four or more years and find a correlation of dogs and covers greater than 56 percent, I would consider that to be a valid betting angle (62 trials -- with a deviation greater than 34-28). The angle was certainly off to a great start -- producing 10 winners and just 5 losses in 2002 (yes, I checked out the data). The trouble with the angle is, if you dig a bit deeper, it runs into serious trouble.
The previous year, in 2001, dogs went just 4-9-2 (two pushes) ATS in the final week. In 2000, dogs broke about even. See the problem? So, after examining three seasons of data, I found nothing of note since the dogs broke about even.
The point is -- be careful about angles and trends which are based on a single season of data. This goes for anything you read, whether that's here at my page, at the site, or any other handicapping source.
A FOOTBALL BETTING TIP
Note: Today's tip will only apply to Nevada-based bettors, so those of you outside the state may want to skip this section.
How many games have you lost by a point or a half point? If you count up all the times this happens over the course of a season, I suspect it comes to several units. This could be the difference between hundreds, if not thousands of dollars.
There's an interesting situation here in Las Vegas which is unique to football betting. The sportsbook at Bourbon Street Casino (on Flamingo next to where the Maxim used to be) uses lines from the Cal-Neva in Reno. To my knowledge, this is the only sportsbook in Las Vegas which independently uses a Northern Nevada line.
Why is this important?
I had a discussion today with a professional sports bettor and we were discussing where to line shop for value on certain teams and on various sports. An interesting phenomenon occurs at Bourbon Street because of the influence of Northern California money which comes in to bet the Raiders and 49ers on weekends. What this means is -- if you desire to bet AGAINST Oakland or San Francisco, go over to Bourbon Street Casino and fade those teams there.
The pro sports bettor mentioned that the lines are off on the two Northern California NFL teams from a half point to a full point every week. The influx of public money into the Cal-Neva moves the number.
So, those of you here in Las Vegas who are eager to bet against the Raiders and 49ers are advised to wait until late in the week and hit the number over at Bourbon Street. That extra point could be the difference between a winner and a loser.
*********************************************
2003 NFL FOOTBALL (PRE-SEASON)
RECORD??????..????. 27 -- 34 -- 0
WIN-LOSS PERCENTAGE??? .447
SIDES????????????. 20 -- 25 -- 0
TOTALS???????????. 3 -- 6 -- 0
TEASERS??????????.. 0 -- 2 -- 0
FIRST-HALF BETS??????.. 2 -- 1 -- 0
SECOND-HALF BETS?????.2 -- 0 -- 0
*********************************************
PRE-SEASON WEEK 4: 0-2 thus far
TEASE INDY (+10.5) / CHICAGO (+11) -- DOUBLE PLAY -- LOST
DETROIT +4 vs. BUFFALO (TRIPLE PLAY)
Lions are the team needing to build confidence in pre-season and should do so leading into the final week. With RB Henry out for Bills, look for lots of reserves on the field, while the Lions are likely to use this game to groom its (inexperienced) first string. I think Coach Marriuci will be more creative on offense versus Coach Williams, who showed a lot on offense last week in last-second win over Rams and should be content to just go through the motions this final week with a team that has most of it's starters already set. I love the points in this one. Seems to be holding at +4, altough it's dropped to +3.5 in some spots.
DALLAS -3 vs. OAKLAND (TRIPLE PLAY) BEST BET
I never thought I'd be confident in these Cowboys, but according to reports Dallas will play much of its first string deep into the game. QB Carter and the WRs are expected to play three quarters -- an indication Coach Parcells is taking this game very seriously. As shown the last two weeks (easy covers versus HOU and PITT), even when a bad team plays with pride, it's capable of rolling over better teams. I don't like betting against the Raiders coming off a dismal home performance last week, but with an older veteran team, I don?t see the Raiders doing much this week, especially with the Romanowski distractions in camp the past few days. Looks like a stunning line to have Dallas favored over the AFC Champions, which will attract a few suckers on the Raiders -- but Dallas may roll in this game. Line up to -3.5 is some places, which I still think deserves a wager.
ARIZONA +6 vs. MINNESOTA (DOUBLE PLAY)
Vikings have a phenomenal record in their last home pre-season game (something like 16-4 ATS the last 20 years), but I don?t think that means shit here. Dennis Green era stats are meaningless. Minnesota is coming off a huge win (for pre-season) where they dominated Oakland last week and now have to lay nearly a touchdown at home in the final week of exhibition. Arizona is undefeated at 3-0 (three easy covers) and obviously thinks these pre-season games mean something, so I'm taking the undefeated team and grabbing the gift of +6.
NY JETS / PHILADELPHIA UNDER 35 (DOUBLE PLAY)
NY JETS(+6.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA (DOUBLE PLAY)
Let's see. Neither starting QB will play (Donovan / Pennington). Testeverde is slated to go two series. Jets are riddled with injuries. Both teams are coming off good showings, thus no incentive to try and build confidence in this game. A close low scoring games favors both the Jets and the UNDER.
DALLAS is the best play on the board this week, but the other plays looks solid.
Good luck to all,
Nolan Dalla
This will very likely mark my first losing pre-season in five years. I've always considered pre-season easier to beat than the regular season (many reason for this) but my angles have not worked out on these games. Again, you have to use entirely different methods for pre-season games. No excuses, I'm just taking repsonsibility for some losing plays and wrong advice.
Nevertheless,
I'm tremednously excited by the start of the regular season. However, I see a number of tempting plays this wek, including what looks to be perhaps the strongest play of the 2003 NFL preseason in my opinion.
I am posting the entire DAILY REPORT here, since Jack may be traveling these days. Let's end this with a winner and get ready for 2003!
THURSDAY REPORT:
NEW: A NOTE ABOUT THE FINAL WEEK OF NFL PRE-SEASON
Be careful when betting in the final week of pre-season. Be particularly cautious when you read posts with listed trends for the final week, that is, unless there is a large amount of data to back up the hypothesis. Short-term data can be very misleading -- especially on these pre-season games.
Case in point:
It makes perfect sense that dogs would be the wiser bets in the final week of pre-season. After all, since starters are expected to play only a limited amount of time (a quarter at most), that makes the final week of pre-season even more unpredictable. So, you are better off taking points with the dogs -- or so the theory goes.
To support this theory -- take a look at last year's pre-season. In 2002, the dogs cashed 10 times and lost of just 5 times in the final week of play. That's pretty impressive, hitting 66 percent without doing any handicapping whatsoever. Someone e-mailed me some data on this (which I appreciate, by the way) and that triggered a bit of additional research on my part.
I decided that if I could go back four or more years and find a correlation of dogs and covers greater than 56 percent, I would consider that to be a valid betting angle (62 trials -- with a deviation greater than 34-28). The angle was certainly off to a great start -- producing 10 winners and just 5 losses in 2002 (yes, I checked out the data). The trouble with the angle is, if you dig a bit deeper, it runs into serious trouble.
The previous year, in 2001, dogs went just 4-9-2 (two pushes) ATS in the final week. In 2000, dogs broke about even. See the problem? So, after examining three seasons of data, I found nothing of note since the dogs broke about even.
The point is -- be careful about angles and trends which are based on a single season of data. This goes for anything you read, whether that's here at my page, at the site, or any other handicapping source.
A FOOTBALL BETTING TIP
Note: Today's tip will only apply to Nevada-based bettors, so those of you outside the state may want to skip this section.
How many games have you lost by a point or a half point? If you count up all the times this happens over the course of a season, I suspect it comes to several units. This could be the difference between hundreds, if not thousands of dollars.
There's an interesting situation here in Las Vegas which is unique to football betting. The sportsbook at Bourbon Street Casino (on Flamingo next to where the Maxim used to be) uses lines from the Cal-Neva in Reno. To my knowledge, this is the only sportsbook in Las Vegas which independently uses a Northern Nevada line.
Why is this important?
I had a discussion today with a professional sports bettor and we were discussing where to line shop for value on certain teams and on various sports. An interesting phenomenon occurs at Bourbon Street because of the influence of Northern California money which comes in to bet the Raiders and 49ers on weekends. What this means is -- if you desire to bet AGAINST Oakland or San Francisco, go over to Bourbon Street Casino and fade those teams there.
The pro sports bettor mentioned that the lines are off on the two Northern California NFL teams from a half point to a full point every week. The influx of public money into the Cal-Neva moves the number.
So, those of you here in Las Vegas who are eager to bet against the Raiders and 49ers are advised to wait until late in the week and hit the number over at Bourbon Street. That extra point could be the difference between a winner and a loser.
*********************************************
2003 NFL FOOTBALL (PRE-SEASON)
RECORD??????..????. 27 -- 34 -- 0
WIN-LOSS PERCENTAGE??? .447
SIDES????????????. 20 -- 25 -- 0
TOTALS???????????. 3 -- 6 -- 0
TEASERS??????????.. 0 -- 2 -- 0
FIRST-HALF BETS??????.. 2 -- 1 -- 0
SECOND-HALF BETS?????.2 -- 0 -- 0
*********************************************
PRE-SEASON WEEK 4: 0-2 thus far
TEASE INDY (+10.5) / CHICAGO (+11) -- DOUBLE PLAY -- LOST
DETROIT +4 vs. BUFFALO (TRIPLE PLAY)
Lions are the team needing to build confidence in pre-season and should do so leading into the final week. With RB Henry out for Bills, look for lots of reserves on the field, while the Lions are likely to use this game to groom its (inexperienced) first string. I think Coach Marriuci will be more creative on offense versus Coach Williams, who showed a lot on offense last week in last-second win over Rams and should be content to just go through the motions this final week with a team that has most of it's starters already set. I love the points in this one. Seems to be holding at +4, altough it's dropped to +3.5 in some spots.
DALLAS -3 vs. OAKLAND (TRIPLE PLAY) BEST BET
I never thought I'd be confident in these Cowboys, but according to reports Dallas will play much of its first string deep into the game. QB Carter and the WRs are expected to play three quarters -- an indication Coach Parcells is taking this game very seriously. As shown the last two weeks (easy covers versus HOU and PITT), even when a bad team plays with pride, it's capable of rolling over better teams. I don't like betting against the Raiders coming off a dismal home performance last week, but with an older veteran team, I don?t see the Raiders doing much this week, especially with the Romanowski distractions in camp the past few days. Looks like a stunning line to have Dallas favored over the AFC Champions, which will attract a few suckers on the Raiders -- but Dallas may roll in this game. Line up to -3.5 is some places, which I still think deserves a wager.
ARIZONA +6 vs. MINNESOTA (DOUBLE PLAY)
Vikings have a phenomenal record in their last home pre-season game (something like 16-4 ATS the last 20 years), but I don?t think that means shit here. Dennis Green era stats are meaningless. Minnesota is coming off a huge win (for pre-season) where they dominated Oakland last week and now have to lay nearly a touchdown at home in the final week of exhibition. Arizona is undefeated at 3-0 (three easy covers) and obviously thinks these pre-season games mean something, so I'm taking the undefeated team and grabbing the gift of +6.
NY JETS / PHILADELPHIA UNDER 35 (DOUBLE PLAY)
NY JETS(+6.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA (DOUBLE PLAY)
Let's see. Neither starting QB will play (Donovan / Pennington). Testeverde is slated to go two series. Jets are riddled with injuries. Both teams are coming off good showings, thus no incentive to try and build confidence in this game. A close low scoring games favors both the Jets and the UNDER.
DALLAS is the best play on the board this week, but the other plays looks solid.
Good luck to all,
Nolan Dalla
