A NY Perspective -- 8/28-8/30

[Buttermaker]

NY Reb

Thanks for the great write-ups. I'll be playing a few of your selections. I have a question. :shrug:

You have Auburn -3 as a 10* play, and mention that a field goal could easily decide the game. Well, then how can it be such a highly rated play if the game could easily fall right on the number?

Again, just asking. You work hard and tha'ts sooooo appreciated
Thanks

 

[NY Reb]

Rebel21, nice to hear from you. I am happy that you enjoy my take on things. After all, it's simply a certain perspective I have. I'm always pleased when it opens doors for others. Hope you're enjoying life in Oxford. Best of luck to you.

Buttermaker, how shall I answer your question? I said this game could be decided by a field, because anything can happen. Since the game hasn't happened yet, there could be any possible outcome. So I am simply acknowledging that the game could be won by a field goal, and that I'm glad I took the earlier line of 3 instead of waiting for the later lines of 3.5 or 4.

About 90% of the time, when I see an early line, it's fairly obvious for me which direction the line will move in. Sometimes I'm wrong, but I'm right enough of the time that I feel confident in making early moves.

Later in my write-up, I state very clearly that I predict a 7-10 point victory. This is when I clarify what I actually think will happen. The field goal thing is simply acknowledging a potential possibility.

Let's face it, every pick I make can be either right or wrong. It's just that over the years I've proven that I can pick more right ones than wrong ones

Best of luck to you for this weekend and the year as a whole!

 

[Mickey's Picks]

Very nice write-ups Reb. Agree with many of your choices. If I may however.........

always find the inclusion of how the home team crowds will somehow contribute to the handicapper's selection a very overrated philosophy. Auburn layed plenty of eggs at home last year in games many on this board, maybe including yourself, thought were sure fire "best bet of day" type winners. Need I remind you of the astounding home eggs Auburn layed early last year against Syracuse and Arkansas? I know the Georgia game was a stunning loss (I had Auburn) but as with most games there was a lot that happened during the game that contributed to the outcome also. Bottom line you may be right in your selection but the fact that "90,000 Jordan-Hare fans" will be screaming during the game is the last thing I would look at to try and decide or support a winner in this game (Noting however that there is an advantage to being the home team).

Likewise with Ole Miss which has notoriously been one of the least reliable double digit favorites in the SEC. You think it's just coincidence that Vandy plays them close all the time? I think ignoring those little facts with the comment that "this year will be different" seems incredibly short-sighted.

Don't take my comments too seriously as I just throw them out there from a "Mickey's perspective." I'm no handicapping God in any way. What I have learned however is to avoid teams that seem to exhibit certain tendancies and if I do play them I do so guardedly and for small change. Just think that to give 10 star status to these two games is a dangerous path. Personally I think some of your other excellent picks should have a ten star instead. Anyway best of luck.

 

[mw]

But Vandy doesn't play Ole Miss close "all the time". They play 'em close roughly half the time and are 4-6 ATS vs. the Rebels the last 10 years.

As for the effect of the crowd -- have you ever been to a game in the South? It's not like it is up in your neck of the woods.

That doesn't mean I'm playing the Rebels or Auburn, though. I'm still weighing those games.

 

[NY Reb]

Mickey, thanks for your reasonable comments. I welcome them. Meanwhile, the fact that Auburn is at home contributes to my decision, but is certainly not a major factor. I can't even contain in one of my write-ups all the factors that helped me choose a particular game. I simply try to make my write-ups as informative and entertaining as possible, in the space allotted. I feel very good about my 10* selections of Auburn -3 and Miss St +5. Still, thanks for your comments. I appreciate feedback of all kinds, and take constructive criticism and good advice to heart. I hope you enjoy a wonderful weekend.

mw, good luck to you as well. May you win them all!

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

NY REB

good luck to you this year,

all the best

Anthony

 

[Franky Wright]

Good stuff NY!
GL this year
Franky

 

[NY Reb]

Thanks, guys. Good luck to each of you!

I'm upping tonight's play on BYU -3 to 7*.

7* BYU -3 (bought the hook)

 

[NY Reb]

So happy I upped my play on BYU. 2nd half was so sweet. A good way to begin the weekend. One down, nine to go.

 

[taoist]

Returning is the motion of the Tao.
Yeilding is the way of the Tao.
The ten thousand things are born of being.
Being is born of not being.


...nice night, my friend.

 

[Rebel21]

Great Start on those 7*'s NY...i hope saturday goes as well...

 

[pt1gard]

ny reb

ny reb

great stuff, i agree with miss st game and Im pac-10 follower ... Dux quit last year in stretch drive and their DBackfield got torched for 3 straight +200 yard days by single opponent, steele thinks thats a record ... Dux finished dropping 6 of past 7 ats, none of them even close

anyhow, sherrill should get his revenge

thanx
gregg

 

[Mickey's Picks]

mw...........

Have I ever been to a game down South? Yes I have. Grew up in Florida, 30 minutes from Gainesville. Seen plenty of games in the Swamp. Then lived for 20 years in New Orleans. Made more than a few trips to Death Valley in Baton Rouge. In fact I have always considered the SEC to be the toughest conference in the USA and consider myself to be somewhat of an SEC expert.

Hope now that I've satisfied you enough to stand by my comments.

 

[NY Reb]

I am adding two games for tomorrow:

5* Wisconsin -3
After studying this game, I like Wisconsin in this spot a lot. I am looking forward to see QB Jim Sorgi in action, who has a much stronger arm than Brooks Bollinger. He also has last year's starting WRs, plus the return of Lee Evans, who is something special. RB Anthony Davis ran for 1,555 yards last season, and is considered the fastest RB in the Big 10. The Badgers' weak link might be the secondary, but West Virginia doesn't have the passing game to exploit it. The Mountaineers return QB Rasheed Marshall, but he is a better runner than passer. Star RB Avon Coburne has departed, along with most of both lines. All in all the Badgers look a lot stronger right now, and I feel they can win this game by considerably more than a field goal.

5* Southern Miss +4
My only hesitation on this game is that California has a game under its belt, and that helps them a lot. Still, Southern Miss has a better defense than most of the teams in the Pac-10, and probably better than the Kansas St defense the Bears faced last week. The linebackers, including Rod Davis and Michael Boley, are among the premier groups in the nation. The Golden Eagles have to rebuild their offense, but QB Mickey D'Angelo returns, and he is very steady. This will be a close and possibly low-scoring game that I believe USM will win outright. If they lose by more than a field goal, I will be very surprised.

I can add more games until right before they start, although I won't be adding anything unless I become aware of something really special. Also, I sometimes post second half plays, which I seem to have a knack for, as I hit over 70% of them last season. Check back if interested.

Good luck to all, as always.

 

[NY Reb]

gregg, best of luck to you!

 

[NY Reb]

One thing I'm really pleased with, here on Saturday right before the games start, is that every line I picked in all my games is either the same as it was or, in most cases, has moved in my favor. I usually have a knack of knowing which way the line will move, and generally pick up some real bargains. Compare the lines as I posted them and the lines as they are today, and you'll see what I mean. Anyway, here's hoping everyone has a fabulous day!

 

[NY Reb]

Added nite game:

5* LSU -34

LA-Monroe is terrible. The Tigers will kill them in Baton Rouge. Give the points.

 

[Send it in]

Congrats on the Seminoles Reb!!

 

[Rebel21]

Thanks for the LSU and FSU picks reb. State is trying to pull it out also...we'll see what happens. Good luck the rest of the season.

 

[NY Reb]

You guys are kind, congratulating me for my wins and ignoring my losses. I vow to do better next week. Hope you enjoyed profitable days yourselves.