Wisconsin@West Virginia
4* Wisconsin -3
West Virginia was very impressive last year and return some top-notch skill position players in 2003. The problem is, they are returning only 2 starters on the OL, and 4 starters on "D". The three-man defensive front only returns one player from their two-deep, which has Anthony Davis licking his chops. WVU is only 2-5 ATS as a home dog, and Wisky may be a dark-horse National Championship contender this year.
Miami (OH)@Iowa
3* Miami (OH) +10.5
It is awful tough to rebuild a major program in NCAA Football, as opposed to a team. We feel that while Ferentz has made major strides, he will be very, very hard pressed to come anywhere close to matching last year's success. Iowa is rebuilding on "O" having to replace their QB and 4 of 5 offensive linemen. Miami really looks forward to these games as their 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games with teams from BCS schools and 4 of those covers were outright victories. Under HC Hoeppner Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 openers. They are 7-2-1 ATS against Big 10 teams, and with the better QB and equal talent on both sides of the ball, we gladly grab the double digits.
Mississippi@Vanderbilt
3* Mississippi -13
Mississippi rang up a big lead in last year's contest, only to leave the backdoor wide open for the Commodores that actually resulted in a straight up scare!! As the season went on, the Rebels really improved their rush "D", as they finished the year allowing 50 ypg less (and a full ypc less) than in 2001. That is the key here, as Mississippi returns 8 starters on both sides of the ball and improvement should continue. Two big other factors here are the Heisman Campaign for Manning (run it up!!) and the prep time for the Vandy option attack. The Rebels have actually been prepping vs. the option since November (bowl game vs. Nebraska) and this is huge when facing such an attack. The home team is 1-7-1 ATS in this matchup, and Mississippi is a good road fav going 9-3 (75%) ATS along with a 20-11-1 ATS record in SEC road games.
Southern Cal@Auburn
2* UNDER 43
This is not the type of place where one wants to break in a new QB like USC has to do with Matt Leinart, so look for Norm Chow to have an incredibly conservative game plan on offense. Auburn is also stacked on D where they held opponents to 14 points or less in 7 games last year and return 8 starters. Auburn has the horses to run the ball but it will be tough against this USC front 4 which is probably the best in the country! USC held opponents to under 3 ypc last year and they will probably be even strong in 2003. Auburn QB Jason Campbell is average at best and won't be able to do much here against this awesome USC secondary; Pete Carroll is a defensive genius and he'll have this D ready. Auburn allowed less than 14 ppg at Jordan-Hare last year, so this should be a dog fight.
Duke@Virginia
2* Duke +14.5
Duke is a sparklin 11-1 ATS when getting more than 6 points, and they are 7-2 ATS their last 9 vs. the Cavs. They return 20 starters (most in the country) this year, and they had the country's #13 rush defense last year. This is a team that has had long losing streaks both nationally and still in the conference, so that pushes this line way too high. While Virginia is a quality team, Duke continues its improvement in the opener and keeps this one close.
Colorado vs Colorado St.
2* Colorado State -2
Notice that there is no @ in the title? That's because this one is played at Mile High Stadium. The Buffs are only 1-6 ATS in season openers, while the Rams are 9-2 ATS in the same spot. State really plays well against the big boys, going 9-4 ATS in this matchup. With 15 returning starters as opposed to only 9 for the Buffs, including QB Van Pelt, we are siding with the team (and coach) that performs better under pressure and look for Lubick's boys to pull this one out, again.
Western Michigan@Michigan State
2* Michigan State -14
Western Michigan has only 10 starters returning from last year's team, including just one starter on the OL. Both teams had disappointing years last year, but the coaching change at Michigan State should bring some much needed discipline and stability to a talented roster. State has a monster edge on the OL (over 50 lbs per man) and should easily control the trenches, and therefore, the game.
4* Wisconsin -3
West Virginia was very impressive last year and return some top-notch skill position players in 2003. The problem is, they are returning only 2 starters on the OL, and 4 starters on "D". The three-man defensive front only returns one player from their two-deep, which has Anthony Davis licking his chops. WVU is only 2-5 ATS as a home dog, and Wisky may be a dark-horse National Championship contender this year.
Miami (OH)@Iowa
3* Miami (OH) +10.5
It is awful tough to rebuild a major program in NCAA Football, as opposed to a team. We feel that while Ferentz has made major strides, he will be very, very hard pressed to come anywhere close to matching last year's success. Iowa is rebuilding on "O" having to replace their QB and 4 of 5 offensive linemen. Miami really looks forward to these games as their 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games with teams from BCS schools and 4 of those covers were outright victories. Under HC Hoeppner Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 openers. They are 7-2-1 ATS against Big 10 teams, and with the better QB and equal talent on both sides of the ball, we gladly grab the double digits.
Mississippi@Vanderbilt
3* Mississippi -13
Mississippi rang up a big lead in last year's contest, only to leave the backdoor wide open for the Commodores that actually resulted in a straight up scare!! As the season went on, the Rebels really improved their rush "D", as they finished the year allowing 50 ypg less (and a full ypc less) than in 2001. That is the key here, as Mississippi returns 8 starters on both sides of the ball and improvement should continue. Two big other factors here are the Heisman Campaign for Manning (run it up!!) and the prep time for the Vandy option attack. The Rebels have actually been prepping vs. the option since November (bowl game vs. Nebraska) and this is huge when facing such an attack. The home team is 1-7-1 ATS in this matchup, and Mississippi is a good road fav going 9-3 (75%) ATS along with a 20-11-1 ATS record in SEC road games.
Southern Cal@Auburn
2* UNDER 43
This is not the type of place where one wants to break in a new QB like USC has to do with Matt Leinart, so look for Norm Chow to have an incredibly conservative game plan on offense. Auburn is also stacked on D where they held opponents to 14 points or less in 7 games last year and return 8 starters. Auburn has the horses to run the ball but it will be tough against this USC front 4 which is probably the best in the country! USC held opponents to under 3 ypc last year and they will probably be even strong in 2003. Auburn QB Jason Campbell is average at best and won't be able to do much here against this awesome USC secondary; Pete Carroll is a defensive genius and he'll have this D ready. Auburn allowed less than 14 ppg at Jordan-Hare last year, so this should be a dog fight.
Duke@Virginia
2* Duke +14.5
Duke is a sparklin 11-1 ATS when getting more than 6 points, and they are 7-2 ATS their last 9 vs. the Cavs. They return 20 starters (most in the country) this year, and they had the country's #13 rush defense last year. This is a team that has had long losing streaks both nationally and still in the conference, so that pushes this line way too high. While Virginia is a quality team, Duke continues its improvement in the opener and keeps this one close.
Colorado vs Colorado St.
2* Colorado State -2
Notice that there is no @ in the title? That's because this one is played at Mile High Stadium. The Buffs are only 1-6 ATS in season openers, while the Rams are 9-2 ATS in the same spot. State really plays well against the big boys, going 9-4 ATS in this matchup. With 15 returning starters as opposed to only 9 for the Buffs, including QB Van Pelt, we are siding with the team (and coach) that performs better under pressure and look for Lubick's boys to pull this one out, again.
Western Michigan@Michigan State
2* Michigan State -14
Western Michigan has only 10 starters returning from last year's team, including just one starter on the OL. Both teams had disappointing years last year, but the coaching change at Michigan State should bring some much needed discipline and stability to a talented roster. State has a monster edge on the OL (over 50 lbs per man) and should easily control the trenches, and therefore, the game.
