SUNDAY's Fortunes

[Home Wrecker]

I will be back with posts very soon. I just wanted to update yesterday: Thoughout the season I will post my overall record, as well as record for each unit 1-5 with a 10 unit play ever once in a blue moon. I will also post my record in both BIG TEN and BIG 12 games as I do MOST of my detailed capping in these games and have watched and still watch the majority of each conferences games. I also have some great contacts within both conferences that I pull valuable information from.

Yesterday I posted twice and for some reason only my first post showed up. I was in a hurry and may have forgotten to hit send properly, but there are several of you who I also send quick emails to with what I am playing who did get the plays. I apologize to the rest of the forum who do read my posts and use my information to cap your own games! I had a very serious family emergency that took a lot of my time yesterday that was not obviously unanticipated!

Enough of the explanations here is how we have come out so far for 2003-2004!


OVERALL Year 6-3 +10.4 units
This week 4-3 +7.4 units

1 units 1-0 +1.0 units
2 units 3-3 -0.6 units
3 units 0-0
4 units 0-0
5 units 2-0 +10 units
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BIG TEN Overall 2-0 +7 units

Big Ten recap:

UCONN -5.5 (Indiana) 5 units (W)
Ohio St -9 (Wash) 2 units (W)
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BIG 12 Overall 3-0 +9 units

Big 12 recap:

Week 1) CAL +28 (K. State) 2 units (W)
Week 2) Nebraska -7 (Ok. Stat) 2 units (W) bought .5
Colorado +3 (Colo Sta) 5 units (W) bought 1pt
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Lets all continue to pull our resources and information together to make this a hell of season for all Madjackers! Let me know if its helpful or not to break down my records like this and I will adjust accordingly!

Back soon with today's plays!

GL and toast to the Madjackers!!!

YAZ

 

[Home Wrecker]

Central Florida @ Virginia Tech

The way I see it. Reports of a soggy field with rain in the forecast. VTech opens in Blacksburgh which has proven to be a tough place to play, especially for the small conference schools. Cent. Fla has a strong QB returning in Ryan Schneider. He came back from an early season injury last season to total 3,770 yards passing and 31 TD's. He threw for over 2,000 and 18 TD's in the last six games against the likes of (Ohio, Mia O, Kent St., Buff, Syracuse, and Akron), not my idea of powerhouse defenses. Still I take nothing away from HIM! BUT he has challenges to work with as Cent Fla has lost 3 of their starting offensive linemen from last year and Schneider's TOP 2 wide receiver targets. Reports that I have read have indicated that Tavaris Capers is now the #1 WR and has looked very strong in pre-season workouts. But, is that against talent that he will play against today? I have trouble believing so.

Meanwhile, VTech has Bryan Randall back with a full year at as the starter under his belt. Last year Randall threw for 2,134 yards while gaining 507 on the ground. He is backed up by Michael Vick's younger brother Marcus who many believe will get significant playing time and several reports indicate he could develop into a better QB then his older brother. I am not going to read too much into Marcus Vick while capping this game, as I am a believer in Randall's abilities just as much, plus he has year of college football behind him. I do like the reports of the battle that the two had throughout the pre-season though as it will only make them both better. RB Kevin Jones is very special and now has the position to himself as he makes a run at the heisman. Though injury proned, he is a flat out stud with NFL size, speed and agility. He also has the luxury of running behind a veteran offensive line with All American Candidate Jake Grove over the ball. Randall and Vick will have a reliable target in Sr. WR Ernest Wilford who with 51 catches, 925 yards, and 7 TD last year is one of the best in the Big East. D'Angelo Hall is a great athlete who plays both ways and will show his stuff at WR as well.



When I first look at this game, I feel as though VTech will roll in front of the home Blacksburgh fans. I feel that VTech will benefit from the weather being a factory more then Cent. Fla due to the emphasis that they put on Special Teams, Defense, and running. Cent. Fla's strength is in the passing game and it will be interesting to see how VTech's secondary responds. What scares me is how many times this VTech team let me down last year in what I thought was a very lack luster effort of a year with tons of mistakes made in each game. They gave up a lot of BIG plays......BUT, they go in ranked #9 and are playing at home needing to come out big. I feel that they are way to talented when compared to Cent Fla and though Cent Fla may hang in there early, I see VTech wearing them down as the game goes on forcing several Cent Fla turnovers and mistakes.

VTECH -20 2 units

GL

YAZ

 

[Home Wrecker]

Louisville @ Kentucky

I want to start by posting this article that I found on another site. It may be beneficial, it may not. But some may want to consider when capping so with only 3 games to cap today I thought I would post it. Back with my thoughts on this game as well as the Texas-New Mex st.


Here you go:


Louisville Cardinals try to squash in-fighting
By Ryan Stetson


Finger-pointing, quarrelling and confusion ? that sums up the 2002 Louisville Cardinals. Louisville players still don?t know what went wrong, or better yet, if anything went right.

?I don?t know what happened last year,? DB Josh Minkins told the Courier-Journal. ?I?ve tried to forget. At times we were too timid. We laid back too much. I don?t have all the answers.?

Louisville players were just as likely to lay a beatdown on the guy sitting in the stall next to them in the locker room than on an opposing player last year.

"Last year there were some times when people let their feelings get out of hand," first-year pivot Stefan LeFors told the Courier-Journal. "They spoke what they thought, and sometimes it wasn't the right thing to do.?

Old habits die hard.

Recently in a first-team offense vs. first-team defense drill, shadows of last year slipped over the Cardinals. The defense was abused through the air and on the ground by a marching offense in long, effortless drives. Defenders looked lost and College Sports Television, filming from the sidelines, got it on tape.

Camera crews caught defenders pointing fingers at each other, then quarrelling, leading to all sorts of confusion.

Same ol', same ol'.

But new coach Bob Petrino and his staff aren't having this. Defensive coordinator, Mike Gillhamer, stepped in.

?You guys have got to get together,? Gillhamer yelled at the ?D?, breaking up the skirmish. ?Did the DBs make mistakes? Yes. Did the linebackers make mistakes? Yes. Did the line make mistakes? Yes. Did I make mistakes? Yes. But listen to me. We have got to stay together and play together. Do you understand that??

For the Louisville?s sake, let?s hope so.

Going into their fierce annual tilt with state-rival Kentucky, clearly there are still questions circling around this Cardinals squad.

But Louisville is likely in a better place than they were last year. Their entire squad was in complete disarray, riddled with injuries. They had RB Eric Shelton on the bench or rehabbing a broken leg. The sophomore transfer from Florida State will help the running game this year ? if he can stay healthy.

?Eric is a very physical runner,? rookie Coach Petrino told the Courier-Journal. ?We?ll look for him a lot to take a load off our quarterback.?

LeFors likes the sound of that. He makes his first start since high school Sunday against Kentucky, who beat the Cardinals 22-17 last year.

It?s probably going to be a long season. The Cardinals are without eight starting defenders from last year?s group that had loads of problems to begin with. Ten teams put up 20 or more points on Louisville last year, whereas only five squads managed to top the 20-mark a year before that.

But maybe if the Cardinals can stick together and limit the finger-pointing and in-house squabbles, they?ll be able to eclipse their 7-6 overall record from last year and come out of Kentucky with a win on Sunday.

 

[Home Wrecker]

Short and to the point on this Kentucky-Louisville game. The away team has won 4 of the last 5. Both teams have new coaches but with Louisville's new coach also comes a NEW QB, NEW RB, several NEW guys on Defense only 1 returner at LB and only 1 returner in the secondary. This spells trouble playing a team who touts a powerful offense lead by QB Jared Lorenzen who lost 40 pounds in the off season (from 300 to 260 reported). Last year he threw 24 TD and only 5 INT's. He has the luxury of having all 5 of his offensive linemen back which should also benefit their new running back. Many questions on defense for KY but even more on Louisville's offense. Kentucky won last year 22-17 in Lousville.

My gut says to look for a high scoring game (I don't play totals in college though) with Kentucky at -5.5 being a great value play.


KENTUCKY -5.5 2 units

GL

YAZ

 

[Home Wrecker]

Will be back later for Texas-New Mex St thoughts.

YAZ

 

[freelancc]

good luck HOME...

you gotta love the Defensive Tackle that Kentucky uses for their Quarterback..

hope your plays hit..

 

[Home Wrecker]

NMSU @ TEXAS

Lets start with the stats and trends that scare me about this one.

Texas is 3-15 ATS in opening day games.
Texas is 0-5 ATS under Mack Brown in opening day games.
Texas is 7-16 ATS in the last 23 non-conference games.
Texas is 1-15 ATS when favored in their 1st non-conference game.
Texas is 2-7 ATS as a non-conference home fav of 28 or more.

Now for this year: The tide will change here as Texas gets a New Mexico State team that lost all 4 starters from last years team and they weren't a good defense then giving up an average of 27.3 points per game. Texas is loaded this year! They are very athletic and deep at most positions. Defensive line is lead by 6-4 300 lb Tubbs and 6-5 320 Wright. They have a pair of studs at LB in Derrick Johson and Reed Boyd with some youngsters that are very fast and talented and should get some pt in this one. The secondary is probably their strongest part of the defense with Nathan Vasher taking away half the field!

In games like this I would usually be scared of Texas getting up big at the half which is what will probably happend and then mass subbing for a back door cover. I do expect it to be well over by half, but this team is so deep with talent. All the reports that I have read and the info that I have gotten from my sources in Austin say that each every position had some tough hard fought battles for for starters. I am a big Texas fan and usually I would warn against betting with me here, but I have bet against them in their opener the last 3 years. This year they are really determined to make that extra step into a battle for the National Champ honors and a big start is essential. They have a tough schedule with KSt, OU, Okl St on the road, A&M, Nebraska, and get rival Arkansas back this year.

I look for a shaky start from Chance Mock due to nerves from finally getting his big chance but he will settle down, establish the run and open up some big downfield pass plays on this very weak secondary. He had a gun and is a mobile QB who is not afraid to try to run over people. Roy Williams will post huge numbers in his pursuit of the Heisman throphey. Big numbers from Benson and strong numbers from his backup Selvin Young.

HUGE mismatch here played on Sunday night in a town that has been buzzing for this season to start. Fans will be energized, drunk, and very vocal....lets hope they stay around for the second half rather then taking off to finish partying on 6th street.

TEXAS 1H -17 2 Units
TEXAS -28 2 units

GL

YAZ

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Good luck HW, I totally agree........Wish I were down there tailgating right now LOL......too bad I gotta work tomorrow.......

 

[GOAT]

nice write up good luck!!!!!