Nfl Week 1

[Sixth Sense]

For those familiar with my NFL analysis, I'll be here each week with my analysis on every NFL game, for the 9th straight year of writing NFL analysis on every game. For some, they are only interested in the best bets. If that's you, the best bets are listed at the bottom of the page. Others enjoy the methodology behind each pick and still others just like a second opinion on a particular game. Use the information however it best suits you. Hopefully, I'll pick up where I left off last year, winning 67% of my games during the second half of the season, en route to a 65-49 57% winning year. The preseason was also kind this year, going 7-5 +1.50%. Best of luck.

St. Louis -1 NY GIANTS 46

The Giants finished very strong last year. Their offense, once Fassel took over play calling duties, finished the season averaging 5.9 yards per play against teams allowing 5.0 yards per play, over the last five games. The running game was just average, gaining 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 yards per rush over those five games but the passing game took off, averaging 7.4 yps against teams allowing 5.7 yps. That's an important number because the Rams pass defense wasn't that good last year and they have numerous injuries in the secondary this year. The Rams allowed 6.3 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps last year, including a horrendous 7.7 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps over the last five games. The Rams offense should be better this year with a supposedly healthy Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk. Last year their offense gained just 5.5 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl. The Giants defense was about average last year, allowing 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.1 yppl but they were a little suspect defending the run, allowing 4.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr. The Giants qualify in a game one situation which is 70-37-3 including subsets that are 54-25-2, 36-6 and 13-0 when it applies to home dogs. These teams have played each of the past three seasons, with the Giants winning last year in St. Louis, 26-21 and losing by just one two years ago in St. Louis, 14-15. They did lose three years ago in NY, 24-38, but a couple of turnovers did the Giants in before they knew what hit them. The Rams, over the past couple of years, have had trouble with teams who can put pressure on the quarterback. Teams like TB and the Giants with Michael Strahan have caused problems for them. My numbers support the Giants as do the situations. And with the Giants strength being the passing game and the Rams hurting in the secondary, I like it even more. NY GIANTS 24 ST LOUIS 17

New England -1 BUFFALO 46

NE looked very, very good during the preseason. How that will carry over to the regular season, only time will tell. The Patriots had trouble running the ball last year, gaining only 3.7 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr but they should find some success against Buffalo, who allowed 4.4 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr. NE also didn't pass the ball very well, averaging just 5.7 yps against teams allowing 6.0 yps, while the Bills actually played pretty respectable pass defense last year, allowing just 5.7 yps against teams averaging 5.9 yps. On the other side of the ball, NE struggled to stop the run last year, allowing 4.7 ypr against teams averaging 4.4 ypr. As good a year as Travis Henry had last year, the Bills still only averaged 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr, which made their running game below average. The strength of the Bills offense was their passing offense as they averaged 6.2 yps against teams allowing 6.0 yps but they will face a very good NE secondary, who allows just 5.7 yps against teams averaging 6.1 yps. The NE rush defense should get better this year with the addition of Ted Washington and linebacker Rosevelt Colvin from the Bears. Not only did Buffalo struggle to run the ball and their passing game was decent, but with the loss of Pearless Price at receiver, their passing game will probably take a hit. The Patriots have won five games in a row against Buffalo. Based on their dominating preseason, they also qualify in a 16-3-1 game one situation. They bring a better defense and I'll take the better defense in this game. NEW ENGLAND 26 BUFFALO 23

PITTSBURGH -5 Baltimore 39

A key game between the two best teams in the AFC North. Steelers have won the last four between these two and dominated the last time they lost to Baltimore but lost the game by three because of numerous missed field goals. Both teams are average running the ball, gaining 4.2 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr, while the Ravens are a little better stopping the rush, allowing 3.8 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr and the Steelers allowing 3.9 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr. While both teams allow .1 yards less per pass on defense than their opponents average, the Steelers passing game is head and shoulders above the Ravens passing offense. The Steelers are averaging 6.4 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps while the Ravens are averaging just 5.5 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps. I'm not sure those numbers can get any better for Baltimore with rookie quarterback Kyle Boller starting in this game. The Ravens defense should be better with Ray Lewis healthy and the Steelers offensive line has not played well in preseason. And with Joey Porter out for Pittsburgh, the Steelers defense might not be as good as I think. Having said all of that, my numbers still favor Pittsburgh by about seven points. Pittsburgh qualifies in a 70-37-3 situation including subsets which are 54-25-2 and 36-6. The Pittsburgh offense is much better while I don't think their defense is that far behind Baltimore. Combined with the winning situation and the value on Pittsburgh, I think the Steelers are the side in this game. Baltimore has been very good as a road dog but I think Boller in his first start on the road may be too much to ask. I also think this game could be higher scoring than the number, although I do worry about Boller putting up points in his first game. Still, I will lean towards the over and the home team. PITTSBURGH 27 BALTIMORE 20

CAROLINA -4 Jacksonville 34.5

This is a tough game for me to call. The Carolina defense is very solid allowing just 4.6 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl last year. But, as good as their defense was, the offense was even worse, gaining just 4.4 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl. That should get a little better this year with Stephen Davis running the ball for Carolina. Also, their defense slipped a bit last year when Julius Peppers was suspended for the final four games. They now take on a Jacksonville team that is playing without Jimmy Smith for the first four games. Last year, Jacksonville averaged 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.1 yppl, making their offense average. Their defense was surprisingly decent, allowing just 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl. The did struggle stopping the run, allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr but Carolina only averaged 3.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. On offense, Jacksonville's strength is running the ball but Carolina is very solid stopping the run. My numbers suggest this line should be about -1 or -2. But, Carolina qualifies in a week one situation, which is 51-18-3, which will get me leaning their way. CAROLINA 19 JACKSONVILLE 14

MIAMI -14 Houston 35

Not much to say here. Miami is a very solid team but laying 14 points is a lot of points in the NFL. Houston doesn't run the ball or throw the ball well at all. Unfortunately, for them, Miami is very good at stopping both so I don't see Houston getting their offense going at all. Miami was below average throwing the ball last year, although those numbers contain the Ray Lucas era, so they are a little deceptive. But the Dolphins do run the ball very well, averaging 4.8 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr. Houston was very good against the pass but just average stopping the run, allowing 4.1 ypr against teams allowing 4.1 ypr. My numbers favor Miami by 17 points and they qualify in a 70-37-3 week one situation. That's enough to get me leaning towards Miami but there are better games this week. MIAMI 27 HOUSTON 10

Indianapolis -1 CLEVELAND 46

This game has high scoring written all over it. Having said that, my numbers, using two different sets predict about 44 points or 40 points being scored. With that, I have to pass on the total but the Cleveland defense did not look good during the preseason and I can't believe the Indy defense has improved that much. Both teams allowed 5.2 yppl last year, while Indy did it against teams averaging 5.0 yppl and Cleveland against teams averaging 5.1 yppl. Neither team runs the ball well but both teams don't stop the run either. Both teams do pass the ball pretty well, while both teams are below average in stopping the pass. Again, that should lead to a high scoring game. As for the side, I don't have any situations favoring either team and my numbers are pretty close to the line. I just think Indy is the better team here with a better ability to run the ball and will lean their way because of that. INDIANAPOLIS 27 CLEVELAND 23

Week one Best Bets will only be rated 2% because of the uncertainty of each team's profiles. Next week, I'll get back to the regular 3% rated plays.

YTD 0-0

2% DALLAS -2.5
2% TENNESSEE -3
2% ARZ/DET OVER 38.5
2% NO/SEATTLE OVER 48

 

[Sixth Sense]

Denver -6 CINCINNATI 43.5

Another new era for the Cincinnati Bengals. Marvin Lewis takes over and it would seem the Bungles should get better. But, how soon, is the question. The Bengals passing game averaged 5.7 yps last year against teams allowing 5.8 yps but their passing offense improved greatly in the last half of the year, gaining 6.0 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps over the last five games. I would suspect we'll see more of those numbers this year. Their rushing defense was average over the course of the whole season but, again, played better than average during the final five games. The real problem for Cincy is their pass defense, which allowed 6.7 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for the whole season. I'm not sure where Denver will end up at the end of the year but I have to believe they will start out just fine and it will take Cincinnati some time to adjust to the new coaching staff, etc. It always does with new head coaches, especially taking over poor teams. For that reason, I have to lean towards Denver, laying less than a touchdown in this game. I had Cincinnati in their final preseason game. They covered that game, getting three points from Indy. And they moved the ball extremely well, gaining over 500 yards of offense against less than 150 yards for Indy. Now, the starters didn't play much at all in this game. So, you can't really take anything from that. But, what you can take is all the problems that Bungles had in that game, which don't seem to have changed quite yet. Cincinnati gave up a 95 yard kickoff return, a 93 yard interception return, and a 67 yard fumble recovering for a touchdown. They also botched three straight field goal snaps, failing to get the ball down on all three snaps. Once they did finally get the snaps down, they missed the field goal and, once they got another shot because of a penalty, they missed the field goal again. Some things never change for Cincinnati. Being a situational player I can guarantee a couple of things this year. At some point, when nobody wants them, I will take Cincinnati and they will get destroyed and I will look like a fool for taking them. At another point, I will take them and they will cover and I will look extremely smart. Such is the life of a situational player and the history of the Bungles. DENVER 28 CINCINNATI 20

DETROIT -4 Arizona 38.5

A couple of bad teams here. Neither team passed the ball well last year but both teams were horrible defending the pass as well. I don't really have an opinion on the side here but I do love the total. For the side, I will lean with the team I think is farther ahead in their rebuilding and that is Detroit. The total is very intriguing here. The number is 38.5. Last year, an average NFL game saw about 43.5 points being scored. During any average NFL season, the average points scored are about 42-44 points. As I said, neither team can throw the ball. Arizona averaged just 4.8 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps while Detroit averaged just 4.9 yps against teams allowing 5.9 yps. But, both teams were equally as bad defending the pass. Arizona allowed 6.7 yps against teams averaging 6.0 yps and Detroit allowed 6.8 yps against teams averaging 5.7 yps. What that leaves us with is two average teams. Arizona ran the ball better than average last year and Detroit was a little better than average stopping the run, while Detroit was a little below average running the ball but Arizona was below average stopping the run. Again, it leaves us with two average teams. If these teams are just average, then the average points scored in a game should be scored. And that is about 43 points. These two teams played last year and the final score was 23-20. My predicted total is 45 points using three different methods. The game is being played indoors so the conditions should be ripe. I think Arizona will be able to run the ball enough to put points on the board. And Detroit will be able to throw the ball, especially against a poor Arizona defense, which hasn't gotten any better. Way too much value and things don't have to go completely our way to get the over in this game. DETROIT 27 ARIZONA 20

GREEN BAY -4.5 Minnesota 47

An intriguing game between a Minnesota team that some feel will be better this year against a Green Bay team that some feel will take a step backward this year. Since destroying Minnesota 38-10 in their SB year back in 1996, the Packers have won five of the last six games played here in Green Bay. But, none of them have been easy. In 1997, they won 38-32 as 11.5 point favorites. In 1998, they were introduced to Randy Moss on Monday night and lost 24-37. In 1999, it took a last second touchdown pass to win 23-20. In 2000, on Monday night, Antonio Freeman caught the miracle pass in OT to win 26-20. In 2001 they failed to cover again, winning 24-13 and beating Spurgeon Wynn quarterbacking the Vikings. In that game, they returned an interception for a touchdown very late in the game to seal the game. And last year, with the help of some questionable calls, they defeated the Queens on a Sunday night, scoring late to win 26-22. The reason the Vikings have had their number, if you can have a team's number and still lose, is they dominate at the line of scrimmage. And this year, the Vikings offensive line is even bigger and better. And the Packers defense is probably even worse and carries less depth. They are faster on defense but how good they will be is the question. Last year, the Packers defended the pass very well, allowing just 5.4 yps against teams averaging 5.7 yps. But they struggled against the run, allowing 4.8 ypr against teams averaging 4.3 ypr. Meanwhile, the Vikings were gaining 5.3 ypr against teams allowing 4.3 ypr. It would appear, once again, the Vikings will control the line of scrimmage on offense and run the ball once again. Michael Bennett is out. I think the Vikings will still be able to run the ball but Mike Tice said this week, without Bennett, there is no threat to take the ball 60 or 80 yards on one run. Because of that, the safety never has to come up to stop the run, and therefore; the long pass isn't the threat they want it to be. As good as the Vikings are running the ball and as bad as the Packers are stopping the run, the Vikings still have their own problems and that is stopping the pass. They allowed 6.9 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps last year and they haven't done enough during the off-season to take care of those problems. The Packers should be able to move the ball through the air. The Packers were decimated with injuries to their offensive line at the end of last year. Hopefully, those problems are somewhat healed now, although Marco Rivera is questionable for this game. Only having to lay a short number against a poor defense is just what the doctor ordered for the Packers. They are now 21-6-1 at home in the Favre era when laying five or less points (or a home dog). That includes being 11-1-1 in divisional games. GB also qualifies in a 70-37-3 week one situation, including a 54-25-2 subset and a 36-6 subset. My numbers suggest an 11 point or five point victory. Enough value and the situation favors the home team here. GREEN BAY 31 MINNESOTA 23

KANSAS CITY -5 San Diego 47

After a couple of blow out wins over SD in 1999 and 2000, the Chiefs have gotten a couple of close wins at home the last two years, winning 26-22 here last year as -2 point favorites. SD spent most of last year trying to live up to the myth that they actually have a good defense. Well, SD did have a good defense for a number of years, but last year was not one of them. Not only did they give up 22+ points in each of their last three games, they allowed 5.8 yppl against teams averaging 5.4 yppl. That included a horrible pass defense that allowed 6.8 yps against teams averaging 6.1 yps. And that plays right into the hands of the Chiefs who averaged 7.1 yps against teams allowing 6.0 yps last year. While SD struggled to throw the ball last year (5.5 vs 6.0), they did run the ball very well, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr. That match-up favors SD because KC allowed 4.8 ypr against teams who averaged 4.4 ypr. The KC pass defense wasn't very good either, allowing 6.5 vs 6.1 yps but SD doesn't throw the ball well enough to completely take advantage of that. They will move the ball through the air simply because KC isn't very good at defending the pass. The difference, in this game, I believe is the KC offense is much better than the SD offense, while the SD defense might be better than the KC defense, it isn't head and shoulders above the KC defense. Lean towards KC here. KANSAS CITY 30 SAN DIEGO 20

YTD 0-0

2% DALLAS -2.5
2% TENNESSEE -3
2% ARZ/DET OVER 38.5
2% NO/SEATTLE OVER 48

 

[Sixth Sense]

DALLAS -2.5 Atlanta 36

Looking back, I think I may have bet on or against Dallas at least eight different times last year. I got to see them a lot. The Dallas defense was pretty solid last year, allowing just 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They did allow 27 or more points in three of their final four games but I think that might have been more of a team quitting on head coach Dave Campo than anything else. He was definitely in over his head. The Cowboys had a pretty solid defense and they have speed at the receiver position. What they didn't have was a running game, which was average gaining 4.2 ypr vs 4.2 ypr, nor a passing game, which averaged just 5.3 yps vs 5.7 yps. Their defense kept them in games but bad passes to some open receivers, which would have resulted in touchdowns, kept them from moving the ball. Combine that with some poor decisions from the head coach and you have some disgruntled players and more losses than wins. The team still isn't that good but if they could win five games playing with no fundamentals, poor coaching decisions, etc., how many games can they win with Parcells? The schedule looked a little tougher during the summer but with Michael Vick now out as well as Chad Pennington, the schedule might have gotten a little easier. Parcells should be worth a couple of more wins this year. One thing you do know is they will still play with a decent defense and they will play sound fundamental football. Quincy Carter will be put into favorable situations. And this Sunday is the kind of game they can win with Vick out. Obviously, it's much easier to defend the Falcons without the threat of the quarterback running. Atlanta's running numbers were good last year but Vick helped them quite a bit. Taking out Vick's rushing numbers, Atlanta only averaged 3.9 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr. That doesn't bode well against a Cowboy defense that allowed just 3.8 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr. The Falcons passing game was pretty decent last year, gaining 6.0 yps vs 5.8 yps but Dallas defended the pass well last year, allowing just 5.5 yps vs 5.8 yps. Atlanta's passing game will probably continue to do well with Doug Johnson but the real problem for Atlanta is their defense, which is below average. They allowed 4.6 ypr vs teams averaging only 4.0 ypr and 6.0 yps vs teams averaging 5.8 yps. That doesn't bode well, when getting only a couple of points, not able to run the ball against a solid defense. Dallas also qualifies in a couple of solid week one situations. Those situations are 70-37-3 and 51-18-3 including a subset, which is 44-11-3. The numbers support Atlanta in this game but they are based on Vick playing as well. And, of course, they don't account for Parcells now coaching Dallas. I'll count on the solid situations in their favor along with a very good fundamental match-up for Dallas. DALLAS 27 ATLANTA 14

SEATTLE -3 New Orleans 48

Along with the Giants, Seattle finished last season with one of the best offenses. Seattle finished the last five games averaging 4.8 ypr vs 4.3 ypr and their passing game was incredible, gaining a whopping 7.5 yps versus teams allowing 5.6 yps. That doesn't bode well for New Orleans, who allowed 6.0 yps versus teams averaging 5.7 yps. NO couldn't stop the run either, allowing 4.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.2 ypr. With Hasselbeck now understanding the offense, he should have a field day against the Saints defense, which has some key injuries as well. On the other side of the ball, NO should be able to move the ball with regularity. The Saints averaged 5.2 yppl against teams allowing 5.0 yppl. Those numbers included quite a dip in production at the end of the season. But, I believe they will start up again with the more potent offense. And, there might not be too many better defenses to face than this Seattle unit, which is without Shawn Springs in the secondary and also has some other major injuries. Seattle allowed 5.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl, including allowing 6.6 yps vs 6.1 yps. Two very solid offenses against two questionable defenses. The linemaker knows this as well, by setting this total at 48. But my numbers show about 55-57 points being scored in this game, so there is plenty of value along with the fundamentals on our side. Seattle also qualifies in a 70-37-3 week one situation. The pigskin should be flying through the air come Sunday. SEATTLE 34 NEW ORLEANS 24

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 Chicago 41

SF finished the season as a very average team last year, gaining 5.3 yppl vs 5.3 yppl. And, I don't see them getting any better this year. Matter of fact, with the improvement of Seattle and the Rams looking to bounce back, I can see SF finishing around .500, if not below that this year. But, fortunately for them this week, they take on the Bears, who were extremely below average on offense last year, gaining just 4.6 yppl vs 5.2 yppl. The Bears offensive line, according to Vikings head coach Mike Tice, is not very good, especially after losing Rex Tucker during the preseason. They have one solid offensive lineman and that will make it very tough for their offense to move the ball again this year. Kordell Stewart should actually help simply because he can get them out of trouble with his legs. The numbers in this game support SF slightly and the situations favor them as well, as they qualify in a 70-37-3 week one situation and a 51-18-3 situation. But, SF has plenty of problems with their offensive line due to injuries and I have no interest in this game. SAN FRANCISCO 24 CHICAGO 17

TENNESSEE -3 Oakland 46

A rematch of the AFC Championship game last year. If the results from the regular season or the Championship game are any indication of what will happen in this game, Tennessee might as well not even show up. It wasn't even close last year with Tennessee losing 25-52 and 24-41. While I'm not sure if Tennessee is any better this year, I don't think Oakland can duplicate what they did last year. The Tennessee defense played very well at the end of the year, allowing just 4.6 yppl vs 5.0 yppl and I expect to see more of that at the beginning of this year, with Jevon Kearse presumably playing somewhat healthy from the get go. Tennessee qualifies in some solid week one situations this week, including a 70-37-3 situation, a 44-11-3 situation and a 16-3-1 situation that is 10-1-1 for home teams. The numbers from last year don't necessarily support this play, although using just the numbers from the last five regular season games do actually support Tennessee. The situations are just too strong to ignore. TENNESSEE 28 OAKLAND 17

PHILADELPHIA -3 Tampa Bay 35

I took a lot of heat for taking TB last year in the NFC Championship game. I took them because of their fantastic defense and an under appreciated offense, which was very solid when Brad Johnson played. TB scored at least 20 points in each game, during the last nine games of the season (including the playoffs) when Brad Johnson started. If they get 20 points in this game, which they should, they will cover and probably win straight up. While TB hasn't gotten any worse, I'm not sure Philadelphia hasn't gotten a little worse. They lost Brian Mitchell, a key figure on their special teams, and some key defensive players, including Hugh Douglas. That doesn't make it any easier, especially when I consider the TB offense to be even better this year now that they know Gruden's offense a little better. Defense wins again and TB qualifies in a week one situation that is 16-3-1. TAMPA BAY 20 PHILADELPHIA 17

Week one Best Bets will only be rated 2% because of the uncertainty of each team's profiles. Next week, I'll get back to the regular 3% rated plays.

YTD 0-0

2% DALLAS -2.5
2% TENNESSEE -3
2% ARZ/DET OVER 38.5
2% NO/SEATTLE OVER 48

 

[OtroPex]

Great write-ups Sixth! Time and effort very much appreciated.

GL !

 

[AR182]

6th sense,

great write-ups!!

i have read & admired your analysis for the past few years, always quality.


good luck this upcoming season.

 

[Wolftaz]

Great write-ups Sixth! Good luck this season!


:weed: :look: :thumb:

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

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great info 6thS...... Best of luck this season !!


vicc

 

[Senor Capper]

Lov'in

Lov'in

your 4 best bets.
Glad to see were on the same page. Makes me feel more comfortable in this 1st week of the season.

SC

 

[Sixth Sense]

Let's get 'em guys.

Senor - Same here. GL.

 

[gardenweasel]

like the write-ups

like the write-ups

well done.....leaning towards taking a whack at the over in cleve-indy.....and i`m considering cleveland as sort of an anti public consensus pick....appears everyone is on the colts....i love holcombe,those receivers and william green..but the "d" took some serious hits......has to be a shoot-out(imo)....

again,nice write-ups...i basically agree with alot of your analysis....

best of luck...

 

[avatar]

really glad to stumble upon you here again.

You woud not know me, I recall you with respect from another place a couple years back where you demonstrated a level of intelligence and thouroughness in arriving at your takes that was uncommon.

When I saw the familiar handle "Sixth Sense" I was happy and felt it important that this be known.

No biggie, just wanted to say your efforts are very much appreciated and...however the ball bounces, your well thought out and insightful input is also.

 

[Talyn]

Nice info

Nice info

New to the site this year, was turned on to site by Gregg (Pt1gard) and this site is awesome!! Very good write ups in this post and many, MANY others!! Love the info and hope to be a regular and post good picks as well.

Brad
Talyn