When I first looked at the lines this week, your number 1 pick jumped out at me as well. I probably won't play it, but for no real tangible reason. Call it more of a feeling, but historically when Hawaii travels to the mainland, and plays quality opponents, they just get waxed. But based on everything I've read, and especially watched, I can't find any real reasons to back USC.
As I was watching the BYU/USC game this week, after that first quarter, I was thinking that we would have many, many good wagering opportunities against USC in coming weeks. Here are some of my thoughts on why I'll be against USC for the next month or so:
I first want to preface my thoughts with the statment that USC is a very good team. They've got a solid defense, pretty good kickers, an excellent offensive line, a star WR, and decent backfield skill. But they've got enough issues where the 'public' perception of this team does not quite meet up with real life.
After week 1, when USC totally demolished a potential national champion Auburn, USC was basically crowned as the superior team west of the Mississippi. Auburn's performance in week 2 showed us that maybe USC's dominance wasn't all that special, but that was long forgotten in the public's eye. And what was overlooked in that game is that USC offense didn't really do much. Mistakes by Auburn handed them most of their points.
In week 2, if people were merely looking at boxscores of BYU/USC, then they probably think that USC jumped out to a big lead, started coasting, and then turned in on at the end to secure the win. Nothing could be further from the truth. BYU made mistakes early and again handed USC most of their points (granted, USC did capitalize on them), but once they settled down, they played very competetively. Here's a brief recap in case you didn't see the game:
BYU held USC to 3 and out on their first series, but fumbled the punt at their own 21. After 2 plays that went nowhere, on 3rd and long, BYU forced QB Leinart to scramble, and he made a nice athletic play to find a receiver at the one, where USC subsequently scored. After a BYU punt, USC drove 30 yards to midfield (helped by 20 yards of BYU penalties), and got a quick hitter, slant pattern, that went to the end zone for a quick TD. After the kickoff, BYU's 2nd play was a little screen pass that was read nicely by USC, picked off, and returned for a TD. 21-0 at this point (something like 2:30 left in first quarter), but BYU wasn't really playing that poorly. Maybe USC let down at this point, but even though I had BYU in the game + 21.5, I was still confident they would cover. Enough rambling about this game, but from this point on, BYU played USC straight up and looked every bit as good in each facet of the game.
Another reason for USC to be overrated is their skill players in the backfield. Leinart is still young and doesn't throw the ball that well. They don't have a top 10 or top 20 running game to take all the pressure off him, and he'll make his share of mistakes. By the end of the season, this could change, but for the next 4 weeks or so, he'll still be a little shaky.
But IMO, the public thinks that USC will be playing for the Nat'l championship (and they may well be, but it will be the defense that gets them there), and they'll be asking them to cover high double digits for the next few weeks, but I don't think they have the offensive capabilities to consistently cover large numbers.
I think that USC does have more trouble defending the pass than the run, so Hawaii could put up some points, but Hawaii defense does not match up well with USC offense, and USC should be able to pound the crap out of them.
I really think that we'll have value against USC in their next two games, @Cal and @Arizona St. They'll probably be asked to lay 2TDs to Cal, and probably more than a TD to ASU.
mj
