Saturday 9/13

[JEFF]

ytd 25-11, +21*

There are a few that I got in early, soI'll start my thread for Saturday now. My first one might smell like poop, but needless to say I like it.

Syracuse -3, 3* Had to get this one in while its at a FG. Not that I'm expecting a big rush of Syracuse backers, but better than to take chances, and I don't think its dropping below a FG.

The reason is this: I watched that UL game against UK, and while UL was decent overall, their pass rushers were pathetic in trying to close on Lorenzen. Anderson is much faster and more athletic, and the Cuse RBs are very quick too. Also L'ville DBs will have trouble with Cuse Wrs. Cuse defense is downright awful, but I don't see UL going in to the Carrier Dome and winning here. Cuse is 43-16 SU at home since 93, and the only and only 7 of those losses were OOC opponents.

Also, 1st year head coaches (Petrino) playing away in their 2nd game of the year have a 14-36 SU and 16-32 ATS mark since 1993 entering this season.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I like it as well. Cards will have a tough time with SU's speed on that carpet. GL

HORNS

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this week Jeff!


toy

 

[BASON]

Agree!

Also, take a look at Kansas. How can Wyoming be favored over anybody. This line is off and will come down.

Can't understand the Rutgers line either. Army is terrible and Rutgers beat them 44-0 last year and they are stronger this year.

 

[JEFF]

Bason, I'll take a look at that game and get back to you. Don't have much of a feel for either of those teams.

Other leans:
WVU
Wake
FSU
Miami
UConn
W Mich
Nebraska

 

[JEFF]

Some heavy wood

Some heavy wood

Wisconsin -20, 2*
UNLV comes off a demoralizing loss at Kansas and they can't have much confidence. The team they face has tons of it. Wisconsin has probably one of the top five offenses in the nation and a huge OL that should dominate UNLV D. UNLV D is undersized, misses a lot of tackles and is prone to lots of dumb mistakes. Their secondary should get shredded by Lee Evans and UW's other two excellent Wrs, and Anthony Davis is going to be running through the line untouched for much of the game. UW injuries on Dl are a bit of a concerne, and UNLV QB Nantkes and RB Croom are capable of putting points up. But the best case scenario for them is probably 21, and UW could easily break 40 in this one.

Florida State -23' , 2* Man these guys look good. Still haven't given up an offensive TD in 2 games. GT's offense is not explosive and they are going into Tallahasse with a true freshman QB. I like Ball but he's going to have a very tough time against that FSU defensive front. Especially with no running game to rely on. FSU will dare them to throw and GT is bound to turn it over a handful of times.
GT only scored 13 and 17 against BYU and Auburn, so how many can they score against FSU? I don't see it being any more than 14, tops. FSU should break 30 easily, as they have in four of last five home games against GT(other was 28). Average score in those five was 40-15.

 

[JEFF]

UConn +5, 4*

This game should be a pick em. This UConn team is no joke, even if the teams they beat (Indy and Navy) are bad.

UConn has won 6 straight heading back to last season and this is a huge game for their program. 2nd game at the brand new facility. Only lost by 8 at BC last year, and this team is better, with most guys coming back and better recruits.

UConn holds a staggering 97-0 advantage in points off of turnovers over its last seven contests. Dan Orlovsky has hit of 52-of-78 passes (66.7%) for 624 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions for a 160.02 rating. Orlovsky ranks 23rd in the nation in passing efficiency, 11th in total offense, eighth in passing and his eight TD passes ties him for the national lead.

RB Caulley is a great talent and will get his hundred yards. He's every bit as good as Knight from BC, probably better.

BC has a solid all around team, but is still taking shape. They have to run the ball to win. Meantime, Ucoon has allowed 154 rushing yards in two games and 1.9 ypc (yes, against two bad teams).

In 23 lined games past three years, UConn is 19-4 ATS and 13-2 as a dog. Add on top of all of this that BC plays Miami next week. I think UConn wins this game.

 

[Nickelback]

Good luck Jeff. . . like UConn as well.

 

[Bama6895]

BEWARE

I like Wisc and Uconn also i.e. that is bad for winning money. I might lay off them, just so I will not screw you and others betting them.

Good luck. BTW, if you could not tell, I have been very cold thus far.

 

[hellah10]

good luck

woof

 

[taoist]

Good luck. BTW, if you could not tell, I have been very cold thus far.

...join the club. Law school will fawk your mind up, huh??? Ain't that right, Anthony?? :moon:


...well, bama, studies fawk it up for us.... asses fawk it up for Strange.

 

[Weave]

Enjoying your picks so far this season, Jeff! You are on a roll. I am on board with the 'Cuse...
I also like the Huskers to pound PSU this Sat. Although they may be a well-recognized program, PSU just doesn't have it this year. So far they've squeaked by Temple at home and lost (quite handily) to an average BC squad. Add in the revenge factor, and it looks like a strong play on Nebraska. GL, bro!

:weed:

 

[JEFF]

Weave -- Is this the same Weave that won the bookbuster contest last year? If so I'm looking forward to your NFL plays.

Bama- Don't worry, good karma is here ... think happy thoughts

Everyone else -- Thanks for the input. Got a few more on the way.

Purdue +1.5, 4*

I'll be waiting to put this one in because the line could be going up.

Purdue comin off disastrous loss to BG and will be looking for blood. Wake has been outplayed statistically big time in each of its two upset wins. The Demon Deacons have a hell of a coach and don't make mistakes, but they are playing above their heads.

Wake has been torched in the air, giving up 69% completions and 360 yds per game. Theyre also being outgained 477 to 342. Purdue has been prone to making mistakes and turnovers, and if they do that Saturday they could lose. But Wake is banged up on the OL and at RB and is going against a team that will be able to pass all day. I think the Cinderella gets dumped here.

 

[pt1gard]

hey Jeff

hey Jeff

I took Cuse right away, seems like they might be improving finally ... and took uconn ML on sunday, too


as for Purdue, I looked at that line and said "cant touch," however, after reading your write up it struck me like an arctic blast, U MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING, hehe ... I had purdue on tease LW and had heart ripped out on 4th & 14 TD pass from 25 or whatever it was ... WF is playing over their heads, they lost a ton of players but coach Grobe must be genius and have clover in pocket ... the game appears hard to cap but does WF really have a 3rd charm on what woulve/couldve figured into a 1-2 or even 0-3 start two weeks ago?


one more thing, I got Noles to win ACC +120, whatya think? They have to play at VA week after hosting Canes, thats my biggest concern on schedule ... however, they get nc st, wake, ga tech in Tallahasse... travel to clemson and duke ... If I can pull that one out I can offset disaster with Dolphins


gl, great start to your year & nice write-ups as usual, bud
email me at pt1gard@aol.com sometime

take care
gregg

 

[JEFF]

Gregg

FSU +120 to win ACC? :Yep: Wow. In real odds, I'd put the Noles at -300 to win it. I don't think they'll lose a agame in the league, and even if they do, NCSt and MD have already lost one apiece in the ACC. UVA ain't going undefeated.

You've got mail.

 

[BASON]

Love Uconn, do not like Purdue.

I realize Wake has been living right, but the bottom line is that they have beaten two very respectable teams and now get Purdue at home. Honestly, I think this line should be at least 3. Wake is still not getting any respect. I think they earn it Saturday.

Good Luck!

 

[Chenker]

first off, congrats on a great start-

glad to see we are on the same side on a couple

good luck

 

[JEFF]

Miss State -3, 3*

Bulldogs have won last 17 games against C-USA. Tulane has lost last 7 against SEC. MSU coimng off a bye week while Tulane coming off OT win over a D-IA school. Also playing 3rd game in 12 days. They'll be able to score some points with Losman and Moore, but they're gonna get beat up on the line and by a decent MSU defense.

 

[AR182]

jeff, first i want to tell you that i appreciate your analysis on your plays. there is some good info in these write-ups.


good luck this week & continued success.!!

 

[Chenker]

should I buy back my UNLV +21 bet

you are on fire, congrats and keep it up