Plays for 9/13

[Nickelback]

Haven't been able to get on here for the first two weeks of the season, but I'm ready to get rolling this weekend. First two weeks have been eye openers especially this past weekend. I'll start with my leans for now (without the lines as they may change) and update (with the actual line that I get) when I decide to make a play:

Hawaii over USC
Ohio State over NC State
Mid. Tenn. State over Clemson
Rutgers over Army
Fresno St. over OU
Nebraska over Penn State
UCONN over B.C.
Boise St. over Idaho
UTEP over SDSU

If you have any thoughts on these or info. that everyone should be aware of, feel free to post them under this thread!

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Will edit with my picks. . . analysis is below:

10% bankroll on Fresno State +7.5 1st quarter over Oklahoma
7% bankroll on Western Michigan +7 over Virginia
7% bankroll on Rutgers -6.5 over Army
7% bankroll on Purdue pk over Wake Forest
5% bankroll on Mich/ND under 22.5 1st half
5% bankroll on UCONN +4.5 over Boston College

adding:

7% bankroll on Nebraska -10.5 over Penn State
7% bankroll on Oregon -12 over Arizona
7% bankroll on Boise St. -23 over Idaho

 

[Master Capper]

Like: Rutgers, Neb and UCONN
Undecided: Haw, OSU, MTSU, Fresno, Boise
Did Like: UTEP, but was talked out of the game by the rest of the crew here.

 

[Nickelback]

I suppose my main reason for a play on UTEP is anti consensus. . . there's no way in hell that SDSU is as good as they looked against Ohio State and OSU is much better than they played. Gotta be value on UTEP here but I am uncertain as to how much.

 

[johnnyb.]

hey nickleback, good week to comeback as first two weeks were easy compared to last weekend. noticed you liked hawaii and utep to cover i presume, but why?
hawaii will not pose a problem for sc like byu did this last saturday for 2 reasons:
1. hawaii doesn't have as good a defense as byu (cougars employ 3-3-5 alignment) or as different...
2. sc spent alot of time on auburn's run offense, then only 1 week to prepare for a completely opposite offense predicated on defending carroll's blitzes (carroll commented on post-game show that he was very impressed with crowton's schemes to protect the blitz).
ispoketo some prominent sc alumni that mentioned that sc coaches were more comfortable defending jones' run n' shoot offense then crowton's passing scheme.
now at present i don't know utep/sdst. line but utep is baaad and aztecs just showed the nation they have some huevos playing buckeyes without their #1 qb on the road! coach craft won at the jc level in cali and will eventually win at san diego.
good luck this week and welcome back!

 

[THE WIZZARD]

GLAD TO C U BACK.


GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND.


WIZZ.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl NB on all your leans and plays!!


toy

 

[gardenweasel]

jumped on boise

jumped on boise

at 19....i hope idaho keeps lindgren on the bench....harrington can`t move the team at all...g.l.

 

[JEFF]

Really like the Uconn and Nebraska plays. Also looking at Fresno possibly. Good to see you back Nickel!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL this weekend!

HORNS

 

[BASON]

Really like UConn and Rutger as I have previously posted.

Do not like OSU. I have a feeling that they are going down this weekend. NC State can score and will do so against OSU. If their offense is close to being as offensive as they were last week, they will lose. I think the OSU luck runs out this week.

Good Luck!

 

[JCDunkDogs]

Utep is at best a puzzle

Utep is at best a puzzle

...Utep is at worst, horrid!

The Gold Sheet Extra!!! reports that UTEP Coach Gary Nord has lost all support in El Paso. His team lost all discipline and energy in the humiliating losses vs. Arizona and I-AA Cal Poly. The latter debacle was no fluke, as Cal Poly had a 451-256 yd edge over the Miners. The strange thing is that UTEP has a team loaded with juniors, and you might think that they would be stronger than they've shown. But, they are now 5-19 ATS last 24 games on the board. CONCLUSION: CAN'T PLAY UTEP.

 

[Nickelback]

Have narrowed to five plays unless something else comes up:

UConn over BC
Oregon over Arizona
Western Michigan over Virginia
Nebraska over Penn St.
Rutgers over Army

As I mentioned during the first week, I have a new system where I'll bet percentages of my bankroll: 10%, 7%, or 5% per play. Certainly a risky system but one that I am comfortable with. I'll make some decisions tomorrow about how much I will put on each pick above. Will likely have one 10%, two 7%, and two 5% plays.

 

[ststrl]

Good luck buddy, and I'm glad to see you back :toast:

 

[TJBELL]

Good luck bro!!!!! --and-- welcome back!!!!

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

welcome back!

 

[Nickelback]

Gonna spend a little time with my writeups tonight. . . starting with my BIG play for the weekend:

10% play: Fresno State +7.5 1st quarter over Oklahoma

Found this line at Olympic for the first quarter and couldn't believe my eyes. Spread for the game is 28 or 28.5 and we get over 7 for the first quarter??? Basically, OU would have to score twice (at least one td) without any score from Fresno State in the first quarter in order to cover this spread. The hook is absolutely huge for this reason. If Fresno State starts off with the ball, OU may only get the ball once on offense in the first quarter anyways. . . even if OU starts with the ball, they will likely have two offensive chances maybe in the first quarter and would have to score on each (with at least one being a TD). Given the fact that the final score prediction with the spread and total on this game is OU to win approx 37 to 8, its not like OU is expected to score every time this handle the football. Against FSU's decent D, I wouldn't expect it anyways and I don't expect OU to cover the first half spread of 16 or game spread of 28. The #1 team right now is getting too much credit on offense when it is only subpar. OU will win this game with defense, not offense. Yes, it would be bad luck if OU forces a turnover or fumble in the first quarter and that breaks our back here, but I'm willing to take the chance. This first quarter line SHOULD be 6.5 or lower since its only the first quarter so take advantage of it while you can. If we were dealing with an offensive powerhouse, I'd stay away. . . but this is Oklahoma!

More to come. . .

 

[Nickelback]

5% play on Michigan/Notre Dame under 22.5 1st half

Staying away from the game total but this first half line has value IMO. First, Michigan will come out very very conservative in its first big game of the year. I've watched this team for years and always the same results at the beginning of big games: they don't take chances early. 2nd half may be a different story, but at home, Michigan will be content with a close game at the half and their running game going well. Yes, Navarre will throw a few for obvious reasons, but no 30 yard bombs. Expect short passes to open up the running game. Michigan will eat as much clock as possible. On Notre Dame's side of this contest. . . I see much the same. Can't see the Irish taking too many early chances. Should be a defensive contest especially early on with the team behind having to open things up and take chances in the 2nd half. I don't want to have to be concerned with the 2nd half for now and like this 1st half total. I lean to ND and the points as well, but won't play it. This wager holds the best value for this game.

 

[countinguy]

GL Nickel,

Hey see u on Hawaii. I was a big Hawaii Backer last year, watched or listened to all of their games. And suggestion if u like Hawaii I would take them for the 1st half pick, or score over in 1st half. I will prob. do one or both of these picks.

Hope U Have A Great Year!
Countinguy

 

[Nickelback]

5% play on UCONN +4.5 over Boston College

Just can't see this line going up any higher after the initial hit down when the line first came out. Riding with the consensus from this site. . . yet when I check the overall consensus, I find most are on BC yet of course the line has come down. I like the initial hit and believe it was in the right direction. Only concern is UCONN may not play relaxed and could try a little too hard. However, I feel the home crowd will help keep them in this one and hopefully the win. Should be pretty hyped for this contest and I can't see BC getting all excited about playing UCONN.

 

[Nickelback]

7% play on Western Michigan +7 over Virginia

Liked this spot from the beginning but especially with the Cavs' offensive problems due to their QB being out. I'm not sure how great Michigan State is, but these Broncos were able to hang tough with them. . . can't imagine them not being able to hang with the Cavs at home. Should be able to get the win, but I'm not brave enough to touch the ML. I should have taken this line with the hook at 7.5 earlier, but I'll be content with the 7.