A NY Perspective -- 9/11 -- 9/13

NY Reb

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Last week: 8-6 -5.2*
Season: 16-17 -38.1.*

Won more games than I lost last week, and went 3-1 on the 7*s, but lost both 10*s again to put me even further behind in units. I'm not worried, I've had slow starts before, and I'll righten my ship before it's all over. After all, if I wasn't 0-4 on my 10* games for -44* I'd be doing okay:)

Gotta focus on fewer games and get the big units right this time.

Thursday:
5* California +2
After losing a close one to Colo St last week, I think the Bears will be fired up here. Jeff Tedford is showing he is one of the premier coaches in college football. I wonder what he would do with a team with real talent. Utah, meanwhile, lost a heartbreaker to Texas A&M last week, and are bound to be feeling the disappointment of that. To make matters worse, they lost their starting QB Brett Elliot on that heroic try for a 2-point conversion. Senior Lance Rice has 20 starts in his resume, so it's not like there's not a backup available, but he hasn't played a snap this season. Utah will be fired up for this home game against a Pac-10 team, but I like the Bears getting points in this situation and think they will prove to be too much for the Utes. ("What's a Ute?")

Saturday:
5* Oregon -11.5
LSU beat Arizona on the road more than they beat LA-Monroe at home, and LA-Monroe is one of the worst teams in college football. Oregon has not been kind to the Wildcats, beating them 31-14 and 63-28 the last two years. I cannot believe that Arizona will play inspired football as long as Mackovic is there. He simply does not command respect. The Wildcats simply quit after the first quarter last week against LSU. Tuscon is a basketball town, and they tolerate football much like they do in Durham waiting for the "real" season to arrive. If you like trends, Arizona is 4-12-1 ATS in their first conference home game, while Oregon is 9-3 ATS in their last twelve against the Wildcats. Everything points to a convincing victory for the Ducks in this one.

Other games will be posted in this same thread as the week goes along.
 

mjbarley

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I'm with you on Oregon. They'll score their fare share of points against a pathetic Arizona defense, and I don't think Arizona has the offensive firepower to take advantage of Oregon defense that isn't as good as it's been in recent years. Seems like the Arizona team has already quit on Makovic, so now is the time to play against them until the oddsmakers catch on.

My lean on the Thursday game is also towards Cal, but the one thing that I don't like about this game is that this is Cal's 4th game in 19 days. They played that first week against K St, haven't had a week off, and now play a Thursday night game. Do teams really get fatigued playing all these games in a row? I don't really have any data, but it seems to me that they might be getting a little worn out, especially since they haven't really had a gimme game (S Miss isn't as bad as they showed). Maybe if they had McNeese State or James Madison somewhere on the schedule where it could be more like a scrimmage....
 

NY Reb

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I think Utah's having played a hard-fought game at College Station last week might even out this particular factor. Also, after three tough opponents, Cal should be in mid-season form. Other than A&M, Utah has only faced Utah St. And I really think that having to go with a QB who hasn't played this year is going to hurt them.

If Oregon doesn't cover I'll really wonder about the Ducks.
 

NY Reb

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5* Georgia Tech +24.5
I was on the Noles big in their first two games and won each of them rather handily. Since they did win rather handily, I feel that we have some value in this week's line. As frumpy as Auburn has been so far this season, you have to have something going for you to beat them 17-3. Are the Noles capable of covering this spread against the Yellow Jackets? Heck yes! Are they motivated to? This is what I doubt. The Noles have won the last 4 games against Tech by 8, 11, 4, and 6 points. So what is it that suddenly has them favored by 24.5? That's what I mean by value. BTW, just for safety's sake, I think that half-point could be important. If your book only offers 24, you might considering buying the extra half-point. I just cannot see FSU winning this by more than 3 TDs and a field goal at the very most. Realistically, I expect a much closer game or I wouldn't be on it.
 
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NY Reb

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7* Vanderbilt +12.5
This line just dropped to 11.5 at Pinnacle, and chances are others might follow, so I wanted to get this up while this line is still available at some places. This is a strange game, and usually Vandy is a strange team to cap. They often play SEC teams tougher than anyone expects, and who's to know what to expect from Auburn this week? On paper, it is a mismatch. Vandy has one senior starter while Auburn is loaded with talented senior leadership. Still, paper hasn't lived up to itself lately where Auburn is concerned. I like a scrappy, youthful Vandy team in this spot over the disappointing Tigers. Do you know that in their first two games Auburn's vaunted rushing game has averaged exactly 1.1 yard per carry? Also worth mentioning is that the home team is 8-0-1 ATS in this series. Auburn wants a win in the worse way, but so do the Commodores who will fight them til the end. Auburn will probably come out with a win here, but I look for the Dores to keep it close.
 

ajoytoy

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gl reb!


lets get some $$ back this weekend bud!


love those first as i am playing them as well...

agree about GT!!



toy
 

NY Reb

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Hope you have a great week, Toy. I am really looking forward to the Ohio St game coming up. Everyone seems to be on the Wolfpack without even knowing what the line will be. Me too:)
 

NY Reb

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ND, you have a great football mind. You know what to do.

In this post I'm gonna look at some games with a common thread. They are all teams against an opponent who won big last week. You probably already know who I'm talking about.

7* Connecticut +4.5
How can you go against these guys? Especially getting a BC team who tromped Penn St last week and has Miami next week. Last season they lost by 8 at BC. Don't you think they will do better at home this season? I think they are much improved this year, and they were warming up with Army last week while BC tussled with Penn St. I thought it would take UConn years before they became competitive in the Big East. Looks like they are already there. I like this classic sandwich matchup a lot.

10* Purdue +1.5
Very interesting game. I'd though I was going to avoid this one, but after looking real closely, I've decided to get involved. Here we have a team who was generally picked around 3rd in the Big-10 as an underdog against a team who was considered about 7th or 8th in the ACC. Not only that, it is a REVENGE game for Purdue, who were upset by the same Deacons at home last season. Wake thoroughly destroyed NCSt last week while Purdue was upset by Bowling Green. Don't you love it? You know the procedure -- things are not always as they seem. This might be a close game, or it might be a blow-out. Either way I see the Boilermakers winning staight-up. It's just the nature of the way things work.

5* Southern Miss -5
Here we have the same principle in this game. Memphis finally defeated another SEC team in Ole Miss last week and have been feeling good about themselves all week. It's funny, the team can know all about how it works -- letdown follows big win. The coaches drill it into their heads, they read it in the sports pages, the talk it up among themselves, they're fully aware of it. Yet they can't do a thing about it. Southern Miss is a big time rival, only the Golden Eagles are in the driver's seat. They've had extra practice time, enjoyed the Ole Miss game on TV, and have been priming themselves. And don't kid yourself, no matter how good you thought Memphis looked on TV against Ole Miss, Southern Miss is more talented team. I'd be surprised if the Eagles don't win this one by double digits.

More later.
 
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NY Reb

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7* South Carolina +14
So let's see, last year Georgia won by 6, the year before they lost by 5, and the year before they lost by 11 as a 10-point favorite. So now Georgia is suddenly a 14-point favorite. How do they come up with these things? Admittedly the Dawgs looked great against Clemson and many of us lost a bit on that one, but maybe that says more about Clemson than Georgia considering how they looked last week against MTSU. South Carolina is always a weird team to cap -- even for a veteran SEC watcher like me. Maybe it's the Lou Holtz factor, or maybe it's because you never really seem to know how much talent they actually have. All I truly know is that they often play teams a little closer than expected, especially big rivals like Georgia. I like Georgia to win this game, but would be very surprised if they win by more than 2 TDs.
 

NY Reb

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7* Mississippi St -3
The Bulldawgs have had a long time to contemplate the Oregon game and get it out of their system. They are fresh and ready to roll. Kevin Fant is a talented QB and RB Nick Turner is looking forward to displaying his speed and moves on astroturf. Tulane is not known for their defense, and return only 3 starters from last year's team. The Dawgs shouldn't have much difficulty outscoring them. Tulane will get their points -- J. P. Losman is a wonderful QB who will be playing on Sundays, and he has the talented Roydell Williams to throw to. RB Mewelde Moore will get his yards and possibly a TD or two. MSU's secondary is long on talent but short on experience, and they could be burned a couple of times. Still, overall, State is far more talented and has much better athletes. They should control both lines of scrimmage, and Turner could break off a kickoff return for a TD in any game now. Tulane will keep it close for a while, but in the end the Dawgs will wear them down. They should have no problem covering this modest spread. Let's put it this way -- if State loses this game, they are in for another long season and Jackie Sherrill will be looking for a nice place to retire.

10* Rutgers -6
I never dreamed I'd be on Rutgers for a 10*, but here I go. Let's face it, this Army team should be playing in 1-AA. To make matters worse, they lost their starting QB in the last game, and are a bit banged up at other positions. Rutgers beat them 44-0 last year, and I don't think the revenge motive is enough to carry the Cadets to victory a year later. There is a huge talent gap here, and Rutgers has far better athletes. This is one of the Scarlet Knights' better chances for a W this season, and they should make the most of it. Unless Rutgers collapses from the weight of being a road favorite, they should win this by far more than a touchdown.

10* Ole Miss -27
OK, I've gone with the Rebs in the last two games and have been burned both times. Still, I can't see them failing to cover this one. If they hadn't lost to Memphis last week, I wouldn't be interested in this game, but considering that loss and their narrow escape against Vanderbilt, they need a blowout in the worst way. I think they'll delight the crowd in their home opener with an impressive display of offensive fireworks. LA-Monroe lost their last game to 1-AA Sam Houston St and just don't have the athletes to hang with a bunch of frustrated and fired up Rebels. The Rebs have an off-week following this game, so there's nothing to save up for. They can take out of all their frustrations in this one game, and they undoubtedly will. Last week Memphis picked on a RFR and a true freshman at cornerback for a lot of pass yardage, but returning starter Travis Johnson returns to his position for this week after a 2-game suspension, and that will make a huge difference. Johnson, fast and 6-2 and 200, is overall the most talented member of the secondary and one of the premier athletes on the Ole Miss team. He'll be playing on Sundays one day. RFR Jamal Pittman, an extremely talented, 6-1, 240 pound RB returning from knee surgery, ripped off a 17-yard gain in his first career carry against Memphis, and more and more each week will help upgrade the previously dismal running game. We could see a lot more of him in this game. Eli will be Eli and continues to set new passing records each week. In short, this should be a sure-fire blowout special. I feel no hesitation whatsoever in laying all those points.

As usual, if there are any more games to follow, they will be in this same thread.

Good luck to all, and enjoy your weekend!
 

Rebel21

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Thanks for the picks NY...

Good luck this weekend, I hope those 10 *'s finally come through...

My offshore book doesn't have a line for the rutgers/army game? Hopefully one will appear before saturday...
 

BASON

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Love Rutgers, but can not go with the Ole Miss play. Takes a true gambler to go with them this week. They have showed no heart in their last two games. To me, college is 50% determination and heart, so I can't play them.

Good Luck!
 

NY Reb

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7* Boise St -21.5
Boise warmed up with Idaho St last week 62-0 while Idaho lost to Eastern Washington 8-5 in what looks like a baseball game. In the last five years Boise is 5-1 SU and ATS verses Idaho. Their average score in the last four years is 49-18. The only scary thing about this game is that it looks too easy.
 

buddy

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Boise St -21' @ IDAHO

I wouldn't put too much stock in that 8-5 game vs EWASH. Some Head Coaches can be rather sly. Before you put any money at risk, you may want to review last year's game between these two.
 

NY Reb

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Gosh, last year Boise only won by 17. They should be really fired up this year.

Do you really think I don't even review last year's results before taking my games?

Let's see, based on last year's results, who would you take, Rutgers or Army?

Seriously, continuing on the theme of last year's results, Idaho lost to a very bad UL-Monroe team 34-14. That doesn't inspire much confidence.

I like my pick on Boise St. I stand behind it.

Good luck to you in your own selections.
 
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NY Reb

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5* North Carolina St +10
OK, I'll bite. Hugely disappointed that NCSt isn't at full strength for this game. If they were completely healthy, this would be my upset special of the month, at least. As it is, I have full faith in Coach Amato to do whatever is necessary to have his team prepared to win this game. The Buckeyes won a lot of close games last season, and if they manage not to lose this one, I feel it will be another very close victory. Frankly, I think they are ripe for the upset, I just wish RB McLendon was at full strength. The Wolfpack is 7-0 ATS as a road dog under Amato, and 5-2 ATS verses the Big 10. I think this will be a fun game to watch, and I look forward to watching QB Rivers do his thing.
 
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