ND @ Michigan thoughts

[ndlarryj]

first, as a biased ND fan, I told myself last weekend that I was going to try to parlay one unit through ND's first 4 or 5 games hoping they found their way toward an 8-0 ATS start like last year. Well WSU's 4th qtr score on saturday f'd that plan up.

So I'm limiting my ND action to attempted middles, if possible. I see the line now is Mich -10... does anyone think this line will move either way. I know other ND fans who swear that it'll be down to 8 or 9.. and a big blue fan today said he sees it creeping up to 13. Any thoughts?

For those willing to play a side, a few comments..

Michigan will not rush for almost 400 yards against ND and its D-line (as it did @ houston). Though WSU (/the pac-10) may not be the most run-happy offense.. ND only gave up 55 yards on the ground.

Passing stats last week were suspect on both sides. Navarre 14/31 for 144 yards vs. Holiday 21/34 for 149. If ND can beat Central Michigan's 218 yards of rushing in the big house, the passing game may not be a concern.

ND's secondary is banged up, with Beckstrom and Ellick both question marks for saturday.

Will ND's game 1-to-2 improvement be better than UM's game 2-to-3 improvement?

This series is always close.

 

[ctownguy]

I was with you on ND Sat and could not believe they came back and could have covered, but couldn't stop Wash St in the last 2 min to win the game, unbelievable.

I'm no mich fan, I hate the MF*****s but they look loaded this year. the only weak spot to me is what I have said about them for the last 2 years is QB Navarre. I know everyone is on his bandwagon, heisman crap, he will come down to earth and play like Navarre of old, choke choke choke. That's the only thing that will stop Mich against ND in my opinion.

ND will really have trouble with mich "D" especially with Holiday at QB, can't believe they stay with him, he can not move the offense and is a terrible passer.

I hope Navarre chokes, but really think in this spot the assho** wolverines will probably cover

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Dogs have taken the last 7 in this series.

Bible and Jackson were fine at corner with one notable exception. Watson will be back in this game and I don't think either team will ever be up by more than 2 scores.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Bobby - I agree with you. This series is always close although Michigan does look very good mind you against inferior teams. ND runs well off the tackles and I wonder if Michigan will be able to contain the running game. The problem with Navarre is that he locks in on one receiver constantly and he won't be able to get away with it against a solid ND secondary. This is not CMU and Houston. Holiday worries me with the floaters he throws down field. Michigan wins this game but not by double digits, I just don't see it.

HORNS

 

[ctownguy]

BobbyB & ND

I sure hope your right , there is nothing more I would like to see ND win or cover, but unless there are some big changes made from the ND team I watched on this past sat I don't see ND covering in the big house in front of 100,000 screaming wolverine idiot fans.

As far as inferior teams go, they still put up the numbers and have a rythmn going on offense, those might not be the toughest teams, but they didn't lay down and let mich do anything they wanted, mich is loaded and experienced and at home. :shrug:

 

[mademan]

Past history has this game being close, but we all know that vegas isn't stupid. I was suprised to see this open at 10. They want ND $.

Some things to clear up......
John Navarre is no pushover. I'm not saying he's a Heisman candidate...(Chris Perry...maybe) but he's no slouch. He's breaking UM quarterback records every week this season so he's doing something right. His biggest knock is getting balls batted at the line of scrimmage which, to me, is the o-line's fault for not getting the d-line off their feet.

Chris Perry is for real. 233 vs CM and 184 vs Houston. OK OK CM and Houston are no powerhouse but this week will tell the tale for Perry.

This is the toughest game on UM's schedule this season. If they keep rolling here....LOOKOUT!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

It will be interesting to see where this lines hits Sat. afternoon. If they are looking for ND money that is fine. But if ND money continues to come in then the line would drop. Going to wait until Sat. if I make a play.

HORNS

 

[pirate fan]

I'll wait

I'll wait

Being a biased ND fan, I expected a higher number even though this has been close in the past. I fear Mich is to loaded but ND lives for these settings. I'll wait thinking I can get another point or two.:shrug:

 

[ndlarryj]

Some info I found:

In the 19 games (among all 38 team scores) since the series renewed in 1978:

>1. ND holds a 10-8-1 modern-era series edge. 6-3-1 at ND; 4-5 at UM.
>2. Never has a team failed to score at least 7 points.
>3. Only twice (ND-81 and UM-87) has a team failed to score in
double-digits
>4. Only once has a team scored as many as 30 points (ND-98)
>5. 14 of the 19 games were decided by 7 points or fewer.
>6. 9 of the 19 games were undecided until the game's very last play (where the trailing team has a chance of winning on the game's last play. This excludes last year's game where ND took a knee on the final play)
>7. 5 of the 19 games were decided by a game winning FG attempt
>8. ND's average score is 20.84; UM's is 20.95

 

[hellah10]

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20030911/SPORTS04/109110141

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

The favorite in this series is 2-15 ATS the last 17 meetings. In addition, the dog is 7-0 ATS the last seven matches.

The Wolverines are 24-27 as a home favorite while Lloyd Carr has been the head coach.

The Fighting Irish are 2-6 ATS in their first road game since 1995.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

One thing people are forgetting to look at in this game is the kicking game. ND has one of the best kickers in Nick Setta. Michigan on the other hand is a little better this year at that position but I believe have missed a few FG's under 40 yds. I might be wrong. Bottom line, last year they were missing extra pts. I witnessed it in the Iowa game last year. They might have missed 4 or 5 all year. Like I said Finley might be better but if the game came down to a FG I would take Setta any day of the week.

HORNS

 

[CWood97]

FYI all Finley is not kicking for UM this weekend. Garrett Rivas (true frosh, 2/3 last week) is handling it. He has a great leg, but can he handle the pressure? Lloyd seems to think so. We'll find out tomorrow.

 

[mademan]

Just to add to the bad kicking game....Finley didn't kick last year until the end of the season. He handled the punting all season, but due to an injury (I forget what it was) he couldn't kick FG's. When Finley did kick the fg's...he was 3-3 vs OSU and perfect against Fla.

Either way, Finley and Rivas are both better than Phillip Brabbs and Troy Nienberg.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks guys, I was not sure as I mentioned. It was Brabbs that was so awful.

HORNS

 

[smart_money]

No way this game will rise up to -13. Im trying to get 10.5/11 as is. A few experts think this will be a blowout in Michigans favor.......no ah ah. These games are always close regardless. Gimme the points.