The main thing I learned (knew it before but it was hammered home yesterday) : When evaluating a game where the spread is about a TD, or more, concentrate less on the crap team in the game, and more on the favorite. What is their motivation to pummel the opponent? Are they the type of team that buries inferior opponents or toys with them? What kind of situation were they in last week (important/tough game, rivalry game, etc) and what is up next after this game? Lots of great examples of this yesterday.
Those who didn't get it done in this range:
Minny covered, but really shouldn't have, so I count them here. It's just that they were SO much better and bigger than the Bears they couldn't help but win and cover. But their offence really didn't give a damn about the game. Bigtime letdown from the Vikes after last week's big win. Getting away with a half-assed effort like this should only make them even softer next week.
Oakland should have won by a TD or more, and in the end was lucky to win at all. The Raiders have problems, but I don't believe they are quite THIS bad...yet. But they do have a history of blowing or playing close in the games they are expected to win easily.
Tampa Bay comes off a huge emotional tough MNF victory and lays an egg. No way the Bucs should lose at home to Carolina, but that's what happens when you aren't paying attention to who you are playing THIS week.
On the other side of the coin:
New Orleans woke up and laid it down on the Texans after a close first half. After getting nothing accomplished last week, they finally realized they were truly in jeopardy of going 0-2 and really digging themselves a hole and smartened up.
Green Bay comes out without 2 starting WR's, and off an embarassing home loss to the Vikes, and doesn't screw around in dismantling Detroit. Good example of a good team stepping it up after a poor performance. (And Detroit was also probably pretty happy with themselves after their effort last week, and thus came out soft. This is a team that isn't accustomed to winning.)
Not in the range of a TD favorite, but also noteable:
Seattle and Buffalo lay whippings on weaker opponents, AZ and Jax respectively. In both cases the winning sides are teams who are on the rise, and are going to reach out and grab every winnable game. No screwing around. Neither side let up even after building a comfortable lead.
Other noteable things:
* I bet that Cedrick Wilson (SF WR) remembers to go down the next time he catches a ball at the opponents' 20 yard line with :05 remaining in a tie game. That single play could cost the 49ers the division, or a playoff berth even. And it also breathes life into a St Louis team that would be seriously wounded starting the season 0-2. They may have just given StL a tie-breaker over them. Wouldn't that be something if SF missed the playoffs on head-to-head play vs StL. Unforgiveable error!! Thank god it didn't cost me any money.
* The Jets offence really does miss Chad Pennington. Where is Curtis Martin???
* Jamal Lewis, just one word: WOW.
* I'm not worried about Indy. That defence is going to be one of the 5 best in the league this year and will win them games instead of costing them games from now on. Indy's under-respected right now; good betting opportunities here for the next little while I think. Tennessee on the other hand may be a team in decline.
* Denver looks like a team doing everything they can to pull together and win despite their QB. What will happen when they play a real team?
* I still say Buffalo/KC in Week 8 could be the most entertaining game of the year!