Week 3 - Hit hard and Early

[chuckdman]

YTD 6-5 (+4.3 Units)
LW 3-2 (+4.8 Units)

Because I think you guys are all the greatest and I think we should just take everything from the bookies this week I thought I should let you know early with something that SHOCKED me.

Pittsburg -4.5 (5 Units) - Pittsburg goes into Cinni to play the bungals.. and the is at 4.5?! Unless half the Pitt team died last night, I don't know why this line is so low. I don't have time to explain why I like Pitt but they are a good team except on special teams. The Bungals played OK vs Oakland but I think it was Oakland who played like crap which explains why the score was so close.

SMASH PITT NOW!!.. Line opened at 6 and dropped to 4.5?

PLEASE, if someone knows something let us know. Post a new thread or something. Calling my book in 1/2 hr to put this down.

 

[Senor Capper]

An upset maybe in order

An upset maybe in order

A late INT was the dagger for Cincy otherwise they woulda shoulda coulda have upset the Faders at Oakland !!
Check the 189 yd edge along with a FD advantage of 27-12.


Okay so the Faders aint the Steelers.

This week Cincy is at home playing a team that is averaging a mere 79 RYs.

This affair is probably a No Play for me. Being that.....

the Bungholes are only 10-29 ATS as Sept hosts & 1-11 ATS in Division HOs.

Steelheads counter with 7-16-3 ATS as grass RFs.

An upset wouldn't surprise me in the least bit:nooo:

 

[chuckdman]

I know but...

I know but...

The Raiders played bad and really I would have to say REAL bad. It was the Raiders who looked like crap vs the Bungals who looked good. Upsets can happen, but at 4.5, I don't see WHY this line is so low. I really see it going up big time.

I think I would have taken it at 9.5 I'm shocked. 15 minutes till lunch time and I'm going to call the book. I have to take a shot at this. This is a gift at 4.5 in my opionion.

Thanks for the reply, yes, upsets can happen. But .. I have to take a risk here .... besides, they didn't look too bad vs KC. KC had 2 punt returns for TDs, Pitt has 3 turnovers..

KC was better without a doubt. But come on.. its the Bungals.
Again, anyone here if the Pittsburg plane went down with half the team

 

[IX_Bender]

Sounds like you dont want to get talked out of this. Win or lose, Kitna looked 10x better than the first week against a beat up but still decent Raiders secondary.

Pitt secondary may have held TG to a buck twenty five, but I still rate it worse than the Black Hole.

 

[hogman14]

Pittsburgh:
3-1 last 4 @ Cincy
Last 4 yrs, 5-6-4 as Road Fav.
28-5-1 when winning SU, 73-4-3 ATS when winning SU Away
8-3-1 ATS when total is 41+

Cincy:
7-1 ATS as dogs of less than 6
1-9 ATS as dogs of 6 or less (division only)
September, 5-16-1 ATS home, also 4-19-1 ATS off SU loss

I'd have to say this line is due to the Bengals play in Oakland, but also the poor play of Pitts. at KC. 2 big factors to entice the fickle betting public. I hate laying the road lumber, but they were grabbing pts in their opener against Denver, and we see how that's working out for them.

GL

 

[chuckdman]

thanks

thanks

Bender, Hogman, Thanks for the info. Decided to hold off for a bit (1/2 hr more ). I posted this because it surprised me. I am trying to understand it more and like to hear peoples opinions about it.

Still like this though, just waiting for my bookie to get home If the line changes, I'm going to freak!

Again. thanks for the details. The Bengals looked ok vs a banged up Oakland secondary but they still are the Bungals. Oakland couldn't score for crap and Pittsburg knows how to score. Sorry but I am not a Kitna fan. Hes like Kordell IMO, unpredictable and you just never know with him.

I am going to take my chances and take the Steelers. Unless of course someone hear about a plane?? My buddy told me Porter might even be back but couldnt find anything anywhere to back that up.

Thanks Boys!! and GL in Week 3!

 

[chuckdman]

DONE

DONE

Did it, Done, Confirmed. No plane crash

Pittsburg -4.5 (5 Units) - Reason: You decide. Bungals vs Pittsburg. Advantage: Pittsburg on every aspect MAYBE except special teams which Cowher will try to fix and get his team pumped. This is a divisional game so it means a lot to both teams. Let the best team win...... Which is Pittsburg, Hands Down.


GL Boys!

 

[JEFF]

Cincy:
7-1 ATS as dogs of less than 6

OK, I knew this sounded implausible after the way Cincy got beat down last year, and it is. I looked it up. You have it backwards, Cincy was 1-7 ATS last year as a dog less than 6. Please double-check when you throw stats like that out there, Hogman.

 

[Grizape]

Even with a pouris Pitt defense
I do not see the Bungals offense lead by Kitna overmatching Maddox and what could be the best wide receiving trio in the NFL.

It?s the NFL and anything can happen but 9-10x, Pitt will cover this spread with the teams on the field this Sunday

 

[Senor Capper]

Gimme

Gimme

the Bungholes + 9.5 for a nickel.

 

[chuckdman]

The Madjack Boys!

The Madjack Boys!

Again, with these replies it shows me why this is the best forum and the best collection of cappers and people on the web.
Jeff, thanks for clearing that up about the Bungals ATS record
Grizape, thanks for your vote of confidence, still waiting to see your post on week 3 and selecting the Steelers at this incredible wierd/steel of a line
Senor Capper, I guess I was shooting my mouth saying I would take the Bungals at +9.5 at home but I watched the Oakland game and it was Oakland who looked like POS rather than the Bungals looking like a 'good' team.

Lets kick some butt this weekend boys. I need a new TV!

 

[Wolftaz]

Gl on your bet. But it would not surprise me in the least to see Cincy upset the steelers or to see the steelers run away with this game. If Cincy gets its passing game going, the steelers could be in for some trouble. Like Kitna or not, he has Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick playing great ball and now they have finally started using the TE. Remember 2 yrs ago when the Bengals came back and beat the steelers through the air......Bad game or not for Oakland, the secondary shut down Brown and Rice. Huge improvement from last year. Kitna is the wildcard that is why I would definitely pass on this game.

Just some stats...

Pittsburgh 5th total def...3rd vs pass....23rd vs rush
Cincinnati 10th total def ...1st vs pass....28th vs rush

Pittsburgh 7th total off...1st pass...27th rushing
Cincinnati 8th total off...6th pass...20th rushing

:weed: :look: :shrug:

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

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chuckdman, hope u win this one BIG, all the steelers fans want to see our team kickin' ass every weekend, but, i just can't forget that game 2 years ago when the cinci bugs(+8) came from behind 13 points in the 4thQ and made us so fawckin' sad, pitts won that one by five points (not sure but not covered anyway)............. our ofensive team looks just great, but still have 2 of the worst CBs in the league (Scott & Washington), not to mention the special team (i'm :nono: happy to say that but is the truth)................ BEST OF LUCK, i'll be so glad if u get this one !!!


vicc

 

[Wolftaz]

The Bengals were down 13 pts in the 4th qtr of their 2001 game in Cincy and ended up winning in OT 26-23. Bengals went strictly to the air to come back and win. If the Bengals are to have any chance in this game they will have to establish the passing game to open it up for Dillon.

 

[ego74]

big letdown spot for cincy after the near miss in oaktown. STEELERS ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RipIt3]

That's a great call Ego

Think about it. Crappy Bungholes have a chance to put away defending AFC champs while on the road only to blow it. Then they have to travel all the back from Oakland to Cincy to get ready for a Divisional game against a team with a great passing attack.

HUGE let-down situation. It's not everyday that a team with the recent history of the Bungholes has a chance to beat the defending AFC champs. A win there would have been a huge confidence boost - even if Oakland did play poorly. But it didn't happen - they blew the game and find themselves 0-2 again.

Pitt in a laugher...

 

[lotsoffun100100]

For anyone interested in the PGH/Cincy game.... You may want to lay off until the next meeting. The ATS loser in game #1 is 14-2 ATS in game #2.

 

[chuckdman]

must win... for both teams..

must win... for both teams..

I really hope Steelers smash Cinni this weekend (obviously) and they are in a good position considering they are coming off a lose to KC. Cinni is still the same disappointment. They gave Oakland a run for their money but really I think it was Oakland who sucked rocks and almost lost the game. IMO, as long as Pitt gets their special team players act together and they control Dillion on the run game, this should be a cover. I don't believe in past games/situations too much. Teams each year change and different elements are added/lost which make you either a better or worst team. Pittsburg is playing well besides the 2 punt returns LW in KC, I think they were ok. Hopefully Porter will be playing this week and will add some spark to the defense...

I might make this my only play but I am looking at a few games right now. I think Detroit will upset Minny but the over does look good too. Minny looked ok last week and only did cover/win because Chicago stinks. Also like NE -6.5, Under 40.5 Miami/bills and the Bills but they didn't play anyone special so far therefore think Miami will probably win.. but by 3? Not sure Will take the under...

Will be back to post my othe picks..
Good Luck to everyone, especially Pitt Backers

 

[chuckdman]

Adding.......

Adding.......

Just a bit of reading and a bit of my opinion has lead me to these other picks. Usually bet 1-3 units per game depending on how strong I feel about it. Pittsburg with 5 units doesn't happen to often but I thinks it's good to go.

Adding

Miami/Buffalo Under 40.5 (1 Unit) - Both these teams will have something to prove this weekend. Maimi lost their home opener and Bills plan to go 3-0. This will be a tight game, personally, I would take the points (Bills) since any of these two teams could win but the under is my choice because both defenses will have to play well and will. Maimi started off slow in their first two games against sub .500 teams. They should have killed the Jets and scored more but this just supports my pick. The Bills have played 2 weak teams as well. Jacksonville has no one in the secondary and Bledsoe will not have the time to execute as he did with the Jags. Low scoring, sloved and won by a field goal.

Tampa -4 (1 Unit) - I like this game mainly for the fact that TBay lost last week. 3 blocked field goals, turnovers and an offensive which was stopped dead by a great defense. Atlanta is a different team and doesn't have the manpower to stop Tbay defensively. If Tbay gets up early, i think they will bound it with the run. They should be able to take advantage of Atlanta in the 4th quarter. Defensively, its hard to knock TBay. They are fast adn strong and on turf it does help their cause. Atlanta will not be able to keep up. Tbay needs to score 21 points or more for this to cover IMO.

Good luck to everyone this week!

 

[pt1gard]

i lean to pitt, chuck

i lean to pitt, chuck

but cincy's DBs limited Oak to nothing in 2nd half and toyed with Broncs ... gannon and plummer, neither hit 50%, oak 103 yds passing, and Plummer's Helper 111 & a 21.7 QB rating for game .... denver 4.3 per pass play; oak 3.7.... food for thought; and on the flipside, Pitt leads NFL in passing yds per game ... somethings gotta give ... like cowher off a loss, might ML to Seahawks or Bux if I play it

gl, gregg