talk about BAIT.....

[cooz3]

you have got to be kidding me...minny minus 3 or 3.5 against detroit....PLEASE someone tell me that this line isnt begging you to take the vikings...you have a 2-0 team...heading into dteroit that beat GREEN bAY on the road...and was pretty much in control against the bears..

i can almost guarantee that every joe/larry and dick will be all over minny in this one...

every office pool will have a minny pick..LOL

this line by itself should make you lay off of MINNY..but thats just my opinion...

they could come out and crush detroit but before you go throw a bundle on the vikings please look at the last few matchups between these two....

cooz

 

[Riskbreaker]

thats exactly what i thought cooz
minny going 3-0? i smell a moneyline bet... on DET

 

[rc conditioner]

I'm looking at lions too. consensus will be on vikes for sure.

 

[Doctor Baseball]

I love this kind of controversy, really I just love it. Here is my point FWIW. So what you are trying to said is that minne -3.5 its a gimmie or a vegas trap and that everyone is going to bet on the vikings making the Lions the right call????. Well first of all what do you guys think should be the correct or fair pointspread?? Who do you think is a better team Bears or Lions?.

I always use to do this before I place my bet, I change the home team to visitor and the visitor to home, and make the line according to Las Vegas rules, so if we do this for this game we have a minne team as a -9.5 favorite at home, the same line as the bears game. I dont know if I explain me, maybe people doesnt notice because its only 3 points or a fg (almost a JUST WIN SITUATION) but remember home field advantage at NFL is something to consider. I guess you guys have the right call by picking the lions, but no way because it should be an easy cover by vikings or a vegas trap, Good luck, and I will love to see what you guys think.

 

[Sportsaholic]

Division road game for the Viks, Det will air it out.........Look for a track meet between these two..........OVER n out

 

[jmizeus]

i thought the same thing cooz!
jessie ur right if u flip-flop the line from home to road makes some sense
so buffalo getting +3 at miami would be buffalo -3 at home? to me that line is off..if bills were at home this week vs fish buff better be laying more than 3

i though the line in buff game should be more like pickem to -1 fins?

 

[Riskbreaker]

jesse it's not the number -3.5... i would play detroit if it's 5 6 7 whatever... "vegas trap" just implies the linesmaker sees a certain chance for DET to win or cover at home and suck in all the carefree bettors who look at a line and place their bet - "minny only -3.5 gimme ATS a teaser and 3 parlays"... one bet is as good as another if minny romps u have one hellofa day with just 3.5 to lay

i'm playing DET moneyline... later in the week when the line is adjusted

gl with whatever u decide to play

 

[kenman]

hey guys, a similar game like this one last week was SEA -4.5 @ ARZ. SEA beat NO 27-10 at home then go into ARZ spotting 4.5 and almost everyone think this must be a trapped. So all the money must have pour into ARZ and turn out SEA run all over ARZ 38-0. I think Vegas is playing mind game with us so I would wait to see how the line moved before playing your bets. Just an opinion. GL to alls

also similar game:

BUFF -3 @ JAX
DEN -3 @ SD

 

[cooz3]

jessy interesting perspective on the line flip theory....

i often hear the argument or rather debate about the "trap" game or line....some would argue there are such things others would say no...

not going to get into that debate...but i think that vegas or whatever line setter absolutely takes into account the "public's perception" when setting a line...

and IMO this line was clearly set with that theory in mind....

now ther have been some early lines that looked "funny" early on..KENMAN brings up two examples....

im not sure i agree with the BUFF line..since JAX was coming off a pretty good performance in CAROLINA....

but early on two lines stuck out to me ...which where trying to play upon the "public's perception"...

week 1....RAMS/GIANTS
week 2...INDY/TITANS

you can go back to my only two plays this season and see i took both the giants and indy....

RAMS where so supposed to bounce back BIG this year going into week 1..and i think we can both agree they have become somewhat of a public bettors team.....lots of other reasons for the play...but just an angle here

now in week 2 ..we had a titans team who beat oakland in week 1...playing against a team in indy who squeaked by BROWNS ..in a field goal fest...i had an idea as soon as a i saw this line ...that TENN would be a very popular play....and as the week continued on that theory was more than supported....

in week 3...we have a 2-0 minny team who beat Gb on the road against a detroit team who got crushed by GB....right away we have a hint that minny looks real good to the public eye....

and the line is set at 3.5...which i will not argue with you that the line may be accurate...but that is to your eye which is not the same as a once a week bettor ...

all of us should ask ourselves ...when we first started betting football would this line stick out to you?????

quite honestly...i would have been all over minny in this one from the get go..

there are lost of other variables that i take into account when betting....but i have learned over the years that you simply cannot discount the "public's perception" on certain teams from week top week...and i do mean that literally week to week...most peoples attention spans are that fickle...

again jessy ...im not putting this game or any other into any terminology or category such as a "trap" ...but when i see a line like this it certainly is going to get more play on one side than another and the other way from the majority should always be looked at very keenly..

cooz

 

[shamrock]

I agree with cooz, I would say the overwhelming majority will be on purple people, especially with national coverage Sunday night. If this line moves to -3 with negative juice, or -2.5, I will be all over Detroit . Both teams familiarity with turf and Detroit opening shootout at home would also make me look at the over as someone mentioned

 

[Kdogg21]

The last four meetings have played over.

Over is 14-8 for the Vikings last 22 overall.

MIN is 10-6 ATS last 16 versus div. opponent.

DET is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games overall.

DET is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall.

I have to agree this is a sucker bet. I like Detroit and the points. The Mooch will be the difference I think.

 

[yyz]

Why are you guys considering the line, instead of making your own mind up?

You NEVER look at the line and THEN make your decision!

You figure what YOU think the line should be, and then you see what the line is. If you have the Vikes as a better than 3' point favorite, Minny is your team......if you saw the number lower, then it's Detroit!

You can NEVER look at a line, and THEN handicap!!!!!!

 

[michaeljbird]

yyz:yup :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[MrChristo]

Yes. Minni line may well be one of those "too good to be true" lines.
Yes. Minni is (will be for sure!) a big public play this week.

Yet it's interesting that a lot of people that see this as a 'trap', see Tampa Bay -4 as a 'gift'!
(Which, as I'm looking now has a lot more public support than the Vikes!)

yyz, hit it firmly on the head.

My point: Don't worry about where the line opens.....Wait to see where it ends up

 

[cooz3]

YYZ ALWAYS RESPECT YOUR PERSPECTIVE AS WELL AS OTHERS...

BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS NO ABSOLUTE CORRECT THEORY IN CAPPING ANY SPORT....WHATEVER WORKS FOR THE INDIVIDUAL IS THE "RIGHT WAY"

REGARDLESS OF WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LINE...THE CONSTANT IS SIMPLY THE LINE HAS TO BE LOOKED AT AND TAKEN INTO CONSIDEDRATION...NOW IM NOT SUPPORTING ANY PARTICULAR WAY OF CAPPING...I DO WHAT WORKS FOR ME...

I ASSUME YOUR STRATEGY INVOLVES LOOKING INTO A GAME AND THEN LOOKING AT THE LINE AND DETERMINING IF IT IS CLOSE TO YOUR ANALYZATION..(OBVIOUSLY NOT AS SIMPLISTIC BUT FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY )...

THUS THEORETICALLY.....YOUR MAKING A DETERMINATION AS TO WHAT YOUR PERSPECTIVE IS UPON A LINE SET FOR A PARTICUALR GAME...VS THE LINE SET AND DETERMINED TO BE "ACCURATE" BY VEGAS..

IF AN INDIVIDUAL WAS TO LOOK AT THE LINES SET BY VEGAS FIRST ..THEN DETERMINE THROUGH CAPPING THE GAME IF THE VEGAS LINE IS CLOSE TO THE CAPPERS LINE...TELL ME WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS???????

THE BOTTOM LINE ANALYSIS AND DETERMINATION IS EXACTLY THE SAME...IS THE VEGAS LINE CLOSE IN COMPARIOSN TO THE LINE I DETERMINED THROUGH CAPPING..THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE ROUTE BY WHICH EACH INDIVIDUAL GOT TO THE BOTTOM LINE..

I AM BY NO MEANS ADVOCATING BETTING A SIDE BASED UPON A SET LINE BY VEGAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT....but what i am saying is simply this....MOST "SUNDAY" CASUAL BETTORS ..WILL SIMPLY LOOK AT A LINE AND MAKE A DETERMINATION...

IMO THERE IS A VERY ..VERY BIG DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE CASUAL NFL BETTOR AND SOMEONE WHO BETS SPORTS WITH SOME SUCCESS ON A REGUALR BASES...

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEKEND..

COOZ

 

[yyz]

There is a huge difference!

You are subject to letting someone elses "number" affect your oppinion.

If I come up with Minny -8 as a line for that game, and now I see they are actually -3, I have to figure my handicapping has me at 5 points better. Now, I might say to myself, "I better re-check my numbers.", but I am not going to "hunt" for why my number is -8.

On the other hand, if i see -3 as the number, I think I would be inclined to justify that number, as the linesmaker "must know something more than I do".

I think this is like anything else, where a person tells you what they think, and you can't go into it with a fresh mind. No matter how hard you try to think for yourself, you always come back to what you heard the other person say.

 

[ego74]

i wasn't impressed with minny on sunday night against the bears. harrington could have a huge day sunday, but the lions don't have a running game right now without stewart.

but, i can invision culpepper and moss arguing on the sidelines just like old times. the over looks very good in this one.

 

[cooz3]

yyz ..we will agree to disagree on that issue...LOL...

although i do understand your point..


...always good to have a good debate without taking anything personally...

wish you nothing but the best this weekend...and this season

cooz

 

[Riskbreaker]

line determines value of a play... if u have certain value expectations knowing the line in advance saves you a lot of time capping

good luck