I may be a homer but +325???

[gardenweasel]

appreciate the prompt reply....

appreciate the prompt reply....

like the scheduling ....a nice spot for the devils...i`m in........g.l.,guys....

 

[bgold13]

garden- to make you at more ease... marra was correct about utah only passing, and with our all american candidate jason shivers out, but shutdown cb rj oliver was out too and they are both back for this game.
The NC game last year was as Terrell Suggs said," Everything that could have gone wrong defensively did go wrong" ASU put up a record in total yards and lost, thats how bad it was. They couldnt stop the fast NC qb Durant all game. That was also the same D that held Oregon State and Washington last year td less ( washington got one real late in garbage time vs the backups)
Sporting News preseason ranked the ASU secondary as the 7th best in the country... so they have the talent... now they need to put the talent towards getting results

 

[Marra]

Hey bgold-

You know who I have really come to like as a player...Brett Hudson. I used to call him "toast" b/c he always got burned. Now, I think he averages a pick a game. The guy is always around the ball. Sure, he got beat a couple time at corner last year, but that happens to even the best of DB's. He looks really comfortable at safety and I hope he will have a big game against the Iowa O.

 

[BigNick]

Arizona St. has not played two Opponents like Iowa has.

ASU opens with NAu, granted these are two in state teams but they have not played in over 30 years. There is no in state rivalry like an Idaho - Idaho St. game or a Georgia - Geo. Southern game.

Nau is solid this year, but in the first game NAu started a true freshman at QB, RT and FS. The O-line had a combined 35 starts. Still NAU outgained ASU in total Offense, if not for an interception returned for a 97 TD right before halftime, both teams would have went into the locker room tied. Against a weak Utah St. team ASU did not look like the 16th team in the nation.

Iowa on the other hand has put away a solid team in Iowa St. ( atraditionally heated rivalry) and a tough Miami(Ohio) team. One of my top three bets last Sat was Iowa - 4.

No matter what Iowa is a dominate team .....line will move...ASU great but overhyped. You can even make an argument for them not even being a top three team in the Pac-10....USC...Washington...Wash St.....I agree with a lot about what you guys have said. An Emotional letdown is quite possible in this situation, but I believe that IOWA has something to prove, whereas ASU has to just keep from failing to live up to the hype. These are two very different motivating factors.

The line opened at -9....I submitted the following prediction in the thread

Early Line Of Unlv????? WOX11

I will be on this line, but I will probably wait for the public to bring it down a little. I will probably be able to get Iowa -8 or even better -7 or less. ASU is a good team people are going to hit this line hard. I have to stay away at -9 ...just on principle....likewise I have to take Iowa at less than -7.

 

[Marra]

No matter what Iowa is a dominate team .....line will move...ASU great but overhyped. You can even make an argument for them not even being a top three team in the Pac-10....USC...Washington...Wash St.....I agree with a lot about what you guys have said. An Emotional letdown is quite possible in this situation, but I believe that IOWA has something to prove, whereas ASU has to just keep from failing to live up to the hype. These are two very different motivating factors.

We saw San Diego State almost beat Ohio St at the Horseshoe. That tells you how much the mental game means to college football. ASU couldn't possibly or just didn't "get up" for those two games. Matter of fact, I spoke to Walter on campus, and he said "We should have been up for those two games, but we weren't."

Dirk really held back the playbook and you should see a great game out of ASU.

There is big line value for ASU b/c of the points you mentioned, but those shouldn't be heavily weighed upon.

BTW...who is Iowa St. this year? Rivarly games are tough and all, but they really aren't very good. ASU blew out U of A and N.C. State killed N.C. last year in two other rivalry games.

Miami Oh was a solid win, but I don't know if that was the Iowa defense of Rothlesberger playing the worst game of this life...he turned the ball over once on Iowa's 6 yard line and another on Iowa's 3 yard line. That is possible points right there.

Hey, Iowa might win this game by more than nine, but as I stated before, this is BIG, BIG, line value.

 

[c20916]

While this shouldn't be the only reason to not play the game, but my inital numbers show Iowa winning by 16. I use similar number to djchad, and when he posts his numbers I am guessing Iowa will be either a 3 or 2 star play, and those have been hitting at a decent percent, just fyi

 

[bgold13]

numbers mean nothing... asu has no numbers becasue they have played nobody. NAU/ASU is lilke those rivalries you listed, most of the team were not recruited by asu and have dremt of playing at sun devil stadium, especialyl the nau qb who was mvp of asu summer camp and wound up not getting an offer after asu got keller who decommited from michigan


you have an argument for wash st and usc to be higher in the pac than asu, thasts it, asu destroyed the same washington team last year.

game matchups

Passing Game: Nathan Chandler the former pasadena college star, isnt going to turn the ball over and is a gamer but he is not near the staus of Andrew Walter who may have the quickest releases, and that rectifies his lack of speed.IOWA WILL MISS PLAYMAKER WR MO BROWN big time .Advantage HUGEASU

Run: Hakim Hill return to Iowa City is much hyped and could wreck havoc on Iowa, ASU could win this matchup, but Fred Russell is great, Iowa will run and run some more: Advantage Iowa

Offense: With Mo Brown healthy I couls see it differently but this is clearly ASU

Run D: asu is holding opponents under 2 yards per carry and Iowa has a great front 4... Ad Iowa

Pass D: ASU has one of the most athletic and talented secondaries in the country, but are subject to mental lapses at times. Iowa will be seeing a whole new passing attack and will realy miss all american Bob Sanders who is out of action again. Advantage: ASU

Special Teams: ASU punter Tim Parker didnt punt a ball less than 50 yards this year and is one of the best in the country... however they have no field goal kicker as of yet.. parker has missed 2 extra points this year, 5 star recruit jesse ainsworth has won back the place kicking job and will get his first action in a hostile enviornment. Iowas kicking game is as solid as any college team has ever had ever... IOWA advantage

Honestly I dont see Iowa scoring too much and if they cant get the run going they are going to be in trouble. Sure ASU has looked sloppy so far and they might still be sloppy, but they are #16 in the country becasue they flat out have talent.. more talent than iowa has healthy this week

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great assessment bgold. I replied to your Pac-10 thread, if you could respond that would be great. GL

HORNS

 

[bgold13]

"The only proven big play guy is (tailback) Fred Russell," Ferentz said. "My concern is we're running out of big-play guys and we're going to have to play a great game to have a chance."

Iowa head coch

 

[CWood97]

Question for you bgold, don't have my preview mag in front of me right now.

How many returning starters and/or seniors does ASU have on the OL. Any all-conference caliber players?

 

[joebell]

Should be a great game...good luck with your play

I will add a couple of things....The questions about Iowa's mentality this week are Bogus Kirk Ferentz will have his team focused. Most of these guys were a part of the team last year and have the experience to avoid the look ahead / let down. Chandler will not make mistakes, Ferentz will open the playbook, Fred Russel will smash 'em in the mouth, and the Iowa D will bend but not break. The only way ASU wins is if they are the better team, not because Iowa will beat themselves. If you feel ASU is the better team bet them, don't bet them because of the other bogus bullsh~t. I agree ASU is overhyped, so is Iowa:nono:

10 was way to many points...If you guys get it bet down under 7 I will make the homer play

Like I said good luck with your play, just wanted to put in my $.02

JB

 

[bgold13]

ASU o-line returns everyone from last year with the exception of the tight end if that counts.One senior is on the o-line. They have several all conferance caliber players besides the qb... all 3 safties and one cb are mentioned by different magazines as all conf and saftey Jason Shivers who has only played 2 quarters vs NAU this year is healthy and one of the top in the country, he is a junior who has led the team in tackles since his frosh year

the d-end jimmy verdon with 3 sacks last week has people whipering terrell suggs like production from him.. wont come close but he is nfl caliber eventually.

the fullback mikekarney is a great pass reciver and one of the bes blocking fullbacks around.. goood team speed on d as they run a 4-2-5 defense the same defense as tcu and vtech, but they can easily move to a 4-3 vs heavy run teams like iowa

hope this helps

 

[bgold13]

JB- Is there any other team out there that deserves a top 15 ranking that isnt ranked? I just dont think they have 20 football teams really worthy of a top 20 ranking! This Iowa/AZST game will prove worthy of the ranking for one of the teams, the other who knows. JB I am not a fan of rankings before theend of the year, and really feel that a loss is not a big deal for either of our teams here. Its non conferance so it wont matter to the rose bowl only if either team can run the table

 

[joebell]

Bgold-
I think you could be right...I can't think of a team thats getting shunned:shrug:

I also agree that which ever way the game goes either team could rebound and still finish in the top 5...

Interesting discusion...and I think very helpful

 

[CWood97]

Thanks bgold. Leaning towards ASU, especially with experience on the line. Protecting Walter will be the key against a tough Iowa front seven.

Also have a gut feel that this will be one of those pick a winner games i.e. throw the spread out the window.

 

[BigNick]

Another perfect example of bettors being enamoured with a team that play's decent and gets over-hyped by the media. Shame on you for playing with your hearts and not your head....:nono:

#16 in the nation....I am laughing...ASU reminded me of a much hyped team that was demantled by a good but under appreciated USC team in the 2nd week of the season.

How can anyone even make an argument for Walters recieving the Heisman after this game...On many plays he looked as if he was unfamiliar with the QB position. Was this the same guy who spent the entire first quarter demonstrating for the TV audience, how he worked on becoming the perfect QB?

 

[bgold13]

give walter more than .5 second to throw the ball and he does better... give walter out patterns instead of 2 yard stunts.... iowa knew he was throwing and wouldnt budge.... walter was not the reason they couldnt score... walters int in the endzone was bad.. his fault completely and that changed the game would have been 9-0 asu. Walter deserved all the accolades leading up to this game becuase of the way he played last year. He put up number vs Kansas State in the Holiday, he torched Oregon at Autzen and lead the Devils to victory when down 21 points at Autzen. My question was why Hakim Hill didnt get more touches... and where ASU #1 and #2 recievers were, fulton and lightfoot had 0 catches and one pass thrown that way. Shame on me for betting with my heart.. well i never do it and really was looking at this game objectively all week and I still think 9 was way too much of a spread.Walter played himself out of the heisman consideration and now the whole country is going to be down on arizona state as they should be... give iowa credit that was big-10 football... my sincere apoligies to every asu bettor on my token

 

[ND2002HORNS]

No need to apologize. Bottom line though, Koetter said his team did not match well with Iowa. What a great excuse. Then make an adjustment or two or find weaknesses in the opposition and exploit them. No team is unbeatable. What a joke of a coach today.

HORNS

 

[BigNick]

No Need to apoligize BGold...It's your money, besides you presented very strong analysis all week.

This was simply a question of the public loving ASU and setting a line that should have been much more. Remember it started at -10 and was bet down to around -7....?

Also, this should give us some great Pac 10 games to play as everyone underestimates a decent ASU team...

Thanks for the analysis.....no one can say you don't back up your posts

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Well said BN!

HORNS