9/18 - 9/21

dawgball

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Another Kiss Your Sister weekend for me.

LW: 2-2 (-0.2 units)
YTD: 8-6 (+1.4 units)
UGA: 3-0 (+3.0 units)

I added the UGA record for the year based on the theory of the NFL Match-up forum. I follow more information on Georgia and their opponents each week than any other games. I may not have a play each week, but I will at least post my lean. All leans and actual plays will be counted in this record for the year. I thought this may be another helpful tool when looking at my plays.

Last week's outcomes:
Georgia looked great and picked apart SCs new four man front. Gibson going down harder was a major mistake by Richt. He should have never been in the game this week. Reggie Brown and RB Cooper had great games which will help UGA during the long SEC season.

Notre Dame--What a laugher. I picked Michigan to win it all this year at the beginning of the season. Should probalby know bettter than to play against them.

Florida State--Georgia Tech is obviously a much better team than I gave them credit for with their Frosh QB. FSU almost gave up their season to an under-talented team.

Miami (OH)--thanks, Hellah10 and gman2!


This week's leans and plays will come later in the week.
 

dawgball

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Let's get down to this week's game which could preface the SEC championship game. No, I'm not jumping the gun because I know it's early, but if the boys who get paid to write can spill crap like that on a game write-up then so can I!

LSU comes into their SEC opener with 3 easy wins in their pocket. The powerhouse schedule of 1-AA Western Illinois, Arizona, and Louisiana-Monroe is probably what is going to hurt them most in this contest. In my opinion, you can not prepare for to start your SEC battles with this kind of season opening. You hear coaches talk a lot about game speed and how you don't know just how your players will react. You can watch them practice, but until they get in a real game you just don't know what you are going to get. With the opponents that the Tigers have faced to this point, I feel that they still haven't seen real game speed yet.

Currently, the Tigers have sacked the opponents QB 6 times for 43 (keep in mind their opponents) and given up 5 sacks for 28 yards. If Georgia has a dominant facet of the game it is their defensive line and the pressure that they create on the QB. If the Tigers O-Line has given up 5 sacks to their previous 3 opponents, what are the Dawgs going to be able to do.

If the Dawgs do not get pressure on the QB, then LSU does have a talented QB at the helm.

These numbers are from both QBs--majority from starting QB Mauck
PASSING YARDAGE...............910
Att-Comp-Int................92-60-2
Average Per Pass............9.9
Average Per Catch...........15.2
Average Per Game............303.3
TDs Passing.................10

I think this will probably be the key to the game. Can LSU's O-Line compete with UGAs D-Line. If so, then the home crowd may be able to pull a victory out for the Tigers. If not, I believe it is going to be a long day in Baton Rouge.

Georgia played as comlete of a game as I have seen thus far this year against South Carolina. I saw a post about the holding penalties against the Gamecocks, but when you get constant pressure from the D-Line the opposing Line has to do something. Since the SEC title game last year, the press has been all over UGAs young O-Line. To this point in the season, they have performed okay giving up 7 sacks in just 3 games. It helps to have one of the smartest QBs in college football behind you, but I believe they have stepped up to the challenge. This still remains a question mark due to the Tigers front four.

Another question is how will both teams (UGA offense and LSU defense) react to the two QB system utilize by HC Richt. Thus far, the Georgia offensive unit has handled the swapping well (UGA has 1 TO so far this season) but everyone knows a two-QB system is almost always a time bomb waiting to explode.

UGA injuries:
Gibson will most likely be out
Curry will probably see limited time
Milton is likely out

UGA replacements:
Gibson will be replaced by senior WR Damien Gary and Reggie Brown. Brown had a career day last week against the Gamecocks and has become a favorite target for QB Greene.
Milton is replaced by RS Frosh Cooper and true Frosh Kregg Lumpkin will share time with most snaps using Cooper. Cooper has proved to be a force early in the season.

After all of the thought, I can't imagine getting points with the Bulldogs defense and turning it down.

Homer Play:
Georgia +1 1 unit

Good luck to all this week and I will be back with the rest of lmy plays later in the week.
 

dawgball

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My next lean of the week is an "against the media" play. Georgia Tech came in to this season getting local hype as possibly going winless. After the BYU game which I had, the media looked correct in everything that they had said. Then came Week 2 & 3 and a little guy name Reggie Ball. Georgia Tech has now become the darling of the media and someone actually mentioned Chan Galey as a candidate for HC of the Year!:eek:

I think this line will move in Clemson's favor, so I am not playing this game immediately. By the end of the week, I will be playing Clemson plus the points.
 

dawgball

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As stated above, I played a heavily outmatched dog last week in Notre Dame. I feel that Michigan (still my pick to win it all) is due for a let-down game. Am I glutton for punishment or seeing too much media hype? I think Oregon's offense will be a step up from what Michigan has seen to this point. I think the outcome of this game straight up will still hang in the balance until very close to the final. Give me more than a TD and I am biting.

Oregon +8 1 unit (-110)
 

dawgball

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Now looking at the Arkansas-North Texas game. I feel that the line will probably be heavily inflated due to last week's upset of the Longhorns. Giving 22 points is a hefty margin coming off of such an emotional victory last week.

Any opinions on any of these games?
 

Chenker

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My thoguhts on Oregon/Michigan-

Only thing I dont like about the Ducks this week is injuries, a lot of guys banged up or out this week.

BUT

1. Michigan yet to play a road game yet

2. Autzen stadium one of the toughest stadiums in country, fans right on top of players

3. Oregon will stack the box and make Navarre beat them

Both teams have not played anyone decent yet, so throw out the stats-

Oregon has speed and will be able to put up points-

Coaching edge to Belotti take the points in this one:D

There are some ugly trends-

Carr 0-5 ATS last 5 road openers
Car 2-6 ATS away in Sept since 98
Carr is 10-19 as RF
Oregon 4-0 as HD vs. n conf opp.
Belotti 15-10 ATS vs. non conf
 
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crimson

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I was thinking that exact thing about Arkansas. Maybe they are that good but 22 points, N texas d was in top 10 last year. Arkansas wins but by 14-21. Tough game to decipher but gut tells me to go with the mean green here
 

AR182

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dawgball,

i'm also looking at n. tex., waiting to see if the points go up.not only did ark. pull off that emotional win over texas last week, but have alabama next week. according to powersweep newsletter, last year in this same sandwich, ark. was out first downed 14-6 vs. troy.


good luck this weekend.
 

dawgball

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Thanks, AR and crimson

Have added:

Texas Tech +6' 1 unit
Alabama -14
N Texas +21

May add write-ups later.
 

dawgball

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If the total in the Va Tech game tonight goes below 40 (where it is right now), I will be taking the over for 1 unit.
 

dawgball

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I just went to bestbettor to look at the line movement on tonight's total. Is it correct saying that the total was 60 last night at 5:18 pm?
 

dawgball

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At that same time it was 41' at infinity. Quite a difference, don't you think?

Thanks, chenker!
 

dawgball

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Played:

Va Tech Over 40 1 unit


Good luck to all tonight! Pray for those who are faced with this storm.
 
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