Early look at NCAA this week

[Master Capper]

Bobbybluechip- It seems like the whole internet is on Pitt, but how can you not be? Texas definitly has the talent to crush Rice, I may hit that myself.

Mansa Musa, great info on BYU QB he is out 3 weeks,

Patron, WVU better hope for some severe weather or the Terps will win straight up.

Loophole, got to agree with you on Tech, where the hell did their defense come from, they were brutal against BYU. I sort of smell a trap here.

Boilermaker, I have seen ECAR play twice and at this point they would be lucky to beat Mankato State, this program has reached rock bottom

Bgold as usual good Pac 10 info, Devils D looks much better than last year.

Joede,

Good point on Clemson, I sort of smell a outright by the Rich boys.

 

[Joe De]

Yo! Mastercapper...what do you have on Nevada for Thurs nite game....my numbers are absolutely outrageous that it scares me...one on the best ratings i've seen in two years for them to win outright.. and by a large margin...give me back some info .....anything out of the Vegas area deserves concern..you know how the monkeys play their games

 

[AR182]

i like nevada also vs. san jose. nevada impressed me against oregon, while san jose has been outscored in its last 2 by 96-13 combined scores. for me it's nevada or pass.

master capper, you always have good ingo in your college threads.

good luck this weekend, guys.

 

[mw]

I'm surprised so many people like Tech over Clemson. Tech's O is mediocre at best, which is fine as long as they're a dog. But they're not a dog this week. Clemson's problem is coaching (and the team has imploded in some big games), but with Gailey it's not a mismatch the way it is some other games. Only one of the last 7 games between these two has been decided by more than 3 points, and that was last year when Clemson won by 5. If anything, Clemson's talent level has improved compared to Tech's in the past year because of Tech's problems with academic ineligibility. The dog in this series is 13-1 ATS, and if you can get 3.5 points, take 'em.

 

[Master Capper]

JoeDE and Ar182, I have not looked that closely at the game between Sjose and Reno, so far the only way I have compared them in my notes is through Sagarins computer rankings and he has San Jose winning by 6, the other computer rankings that I use has Reno winning in a range of 10-12 points.

MW,

Good point on the coaching, I like Clemson in this spot also with Tech coming off a near upset of FSU, but I wonder why this spread is at least not 6. Cant understand how Bowden and Sherrill survive at their schools.

Random Thought about ESPN Thurs game

The Hurricane path is projected in hit central Virg arond 8pm Thursday, just wondering if this game will be cancelled and if so will ESPN then show San Jose and Reno?

 

[Master Capper]

Big plays in a 6:00 stretch killed Colorado vs Washington State. In the 1H WSU got 74 and 77 yd TD passes and also had a 40 yd int return for a TD and led 23-13. They ret'd the opening KO of the 3Q 99 yds for a TD and added a TD and a FG following CU TO's to blow it open, 47﷓13, 6:00 into the 3Q and coasted from there...

S Carolina/Georgia played closer than the final score indicated. UGA had not scored an offensive TD vs SC in 11Q's but got one in the 1H and led 7-0. SC had a TD pass called back on holding and then threw an int while UGA got an int just before the half and drove 38 yds for another TD to lead 17-0. SC was SOD at the UGA 31 and missed a short 25 yd FG and UGA's final score came on a 44 yd return off an onside kick...

Auburn took out their frustrations on Vanderbilt. They gained more yards (483) than they had in their first two games combined and leading 31-7 in the 4Q Auburn tacked on two more scores with 32 (after int) and 80 yd drives for TD's in the final 8:34 to roll to a 45-7 win...

Miami suffered a letdown after their win over Florida and the game vs E Carolina was actually closer than the 38-3 final would indicate as EC was int'd at the UM 23, gave up a fumble return for a TD, settled for a 26 yd FG after a 12 yd drive, was SOD at midfield, int'd at the UM 37 and fumbled at the UM 32. UM's victory increased the nation's longest home win streak to 24 games...

Speaking of nation's long home winning streaks, Texas was #2 having not lost at Royal Memorial Stadium since October 1999 but Arkansas, which always seems to take their recent Texas meetings more seriously, pulled the big upset thanks to QB Matt Jones. Jones threw for 139 yds and rushed for 102 and Mack Brown said after the game "I don't know if I ever remember a QB making so many plays. Play after play after play with people around him breaking tackles and completing passes"...

In the Cincy/W Virg game the teams combined for 14 fumbles, 8 of them lost as the game was played in a steady, light rain...


The Bulldogs are only 6-19 since 2001. (AP)
In the Boise St/Idaho game each team had 2 drives inside the other's 30. Boise capitalized with 2 TD's, one on a 23 yd drive after a fumble. Idaho settled for 2 FG's, one of which they missed and they trailed 14-3 at the half. It was 14-10 after 3Q's with Boise icing it on a 79 yd run by David Mikell with 6:00 left...

Coach Jackie Sherrill is just 6-19 since 2001 and his Miss St team lost 3 crucial fumbles vs Tulane. MSU led 28-14 with 14:11 left but Tulane battled back and would get a 32 yd FG with :06 remaining to win 31-28. The FG was set up by a questionable MSU fmbl at midfield where WR Justin Jenkins did not look like he established poss before being hit. Tulane RB Mewelde Moore became CUSA's leading career rusher with 3,683 yards topping Ketric Sanford's 3,636 set in 1999...

Oregon St QB Derek Anderson came under a lot of fire during the week after throwing 5 int's vs Fresno St and early vs N Mex St the ball fell out of his hands as he was getting ready to throw and NMSt ret'd it for a TD. The Aggies actually led 13-0 after 1Q but OSU rebounded with 28-12 FD and 454-259 yd edges, outscoring NMSt 28-3 over the final 3Q's. More importantly, RB Steven Jackson, who had 166 yds rushing and 3 rec's, was inj'd with 5:00 left and did not return. Make sure you check on his status for this week's game...

Ole Miss almost set the school record for total offense rolling up 612 yds vs UL Monroe with 342 of that in the 1H. The school record was 623 set in 1951. CB Travis Johnson, who was suspended the first 2 games, returned to the field for the Rebels and had a 45 yard int return for a TD in the 59-14 rout of ULM...

Rice had 201 total yards in the 1H vs Duke and led 14-7 but Duke adjusted to the wishbone and would battle back to lead 24-14 in the 4Q. Rice got a FG and with 3:24 left, drove 75 yds in 15 plays and got a 9 yd TD pass with :03 left to force OT but would lose the game by missing their FG in the first OT. Duke won consecutive games for the first time in five years.


The SMU/Baylor game featured some offensive ineptness. Baylor, in one 4:30 stretch in the 2Q, deflected a punt, rec'd a fumble on a PR and got an int but managed just a FG. For the game, each of the former SWC teams had just 11 FD's and SMU had 204 yds but that was actually more than BU, who had just 182 and BU still won it 10-7...

Troy St, due to injury, got a huge upgrade at the QB position. Hansell Bearden, who completes under 50% of his passes, was injured and the team went to VHT Aaron Leak, a N Carolina transfer. Leak, in his first game, didn't do bad hitting 11 of 18 for 131 yds but should give TSU much better QB play as the season goes on...

Syracuse's D allowed more than 500 yards in 5 straight games and was missing 3 starters vs Louisville but still "held" them to 451 yds in a 30-20 loss. SU had 446 yds offense but could only total 20 points...

Starting UCLA CB Matt Clark did not play because of questions involving his eligibility but the D was still dominant holding Illinois to 283 yds. The Illini only moved inside the Bruins 44 once until their final drive when IL set up for a 38 yd FG with :28 left but a penalty pushed it to a 43 yd'r and they missed it wide left. The Illini D held UCLA to 204 total yds...

For the second straight week Arizona was destroyed at home. This time Oregon led 48-3 when Arizona got 97 of their 180 yds on a final garbage drive for a TD with 3:42 left.

 

[Master Capper]

News and notes, Part II
Sept. 15, 2003
By Phil Steele
Special to VegasInsider.com

DOMINATING WINS - Michigan absolutely dominated Notre Dame and have perhaps the Heisman Trophy leader in Chris Perry who rushed for 133 yds and added 44 receiving vs the Irish. Perry has 8 total TD's this year. Nine of the previous 11 meetings between the rivals had been decided by 7 points or fewer but it was the first shutout since 1902 and Michigan has beaten its first 3 opponents by a combined 133-10. Many fans in the NCAA record crowd of 111,726 started chanting "Houston's better, Houston's better". UM had a 19 play, 80 yd drive that consumed a school record 10:25.

GARBAGE YARDS AND TD'S - Air Force led N Texas 34-7 with 8:23 left before allowing 70 and 60 yd drives for garbage TD's to make the final more respectable...

Rutgers led Army 29-7 with 6:06 left. Army got 2 FD's and then elected to punt from their own territory but RU was called for illegal participation giving them a FD. They then drove 47 yds for a garbage TD with 1:06 left and rec'd the onside kick and drove 55 yds for another garbage TD with :28 left to make the final score respectable. Army gained 102 of their 306 yds after the penalty.


Reggie Ball nearly led Georgia Tech to another upset. (AP)
SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING - Wake Forest took advantage of an NC State team 2 weeks ago looking ahead to Ohio St and was fortunate in their first week vs Boston College. They were actually ranked in the Top 20 for the first time since 1987. Purdue was coming off an embarrassing home loss to Bowling Green and was actually an underdog most of the week. PU outplayed WF with 19-15 FD and 343-243 yard edges and got the road "upset" in a game PU would have been favored in by at least 7-10 pts at the start of the season, 16-10...

Last week S Miss was in a great situation catching Memphis off their upset of Ole Miss, having a few extra days to prepare and having an aggressive D vs a young O-line making its first road start. SM was fortunate to cover. They scored a TD in the 1Q after an int was ret'd to the 15, the first of six TO's. UM settled for short 21 and 23 yd FG's in the 2Q and it was 6-6 at the half (SM xp blk'd). SM settled for a 28 yd FG and was without their starting QB in the 2H. Backup Dustin Almond hit just 3 of 14 for 44 for the Eagles. SM got an int in the EZ when Memphis was threatening to take the lead. Midway through the 4Q they got an 87 yd PR for a TD and then tacked on a 38 yd TD run late for a somewhat misleading final at 23-6.

AMAZING COMEBACK - Michigan St settled for 4 FG's in the first 3Q's vs LA Tech and it appeared over as LT was SOD on 4th & 13 at the Spartan 32 with just 2:59 left trailing 19-7. MSU had a 326-202 yd edge at the half but thanks in part to the last two drives, LA Tech finished with a 361﷓35 yard edge in the 2H.

MISLEADING FINALS - Nebraska penetrated the Penn St 30 yard line EIGHT times. PSU's offense did not cross the NU 30 once. NU had a 337-44 yd rushing edge and controlled the clock for 39:45 to PSU's 20:15. NU settled for FG's from the 19, 18, 24, 17 and 15 yd lines and had one blocked. The Huskers were int'd in the EZ. After getting to the 25, NU fumbled a pitch and was forced to punt. Once NU scored a TD but the missed the 2 pt conversion. PSU's lone TD came on a 29 yd drive foll a fmbl and they got a 49 yd drive in the final 2:00 of the 1H for a FG and somehow NU did not cover (-10) despite absolutely dominating the game...

While Marshall was starting a new QB against Toledo in their Friday Night game due to Stan Hill's injury, the loss could not be pinned on QB Graham Gochneaur who hit 31 of 39 for 289 yards. He had just one int until his final Hail Mary pass. The key to this game was that Marshall had a 27-19 FD edge but had 7 trips into Toledo terr end up in 5 TO's and 2 SOD's. Leading 10-0 they fumbled at midfield which set up a Toledo TD and led 10-7 at the half. In the 3Q they fmbl'd at the 13 and after 3Q's it was 17-17. In the 4Q UM was SOD at the UT 30, int'd at the 20, fmbl'd at the UT 43 and were int'd at the UT 10 on their final drive and lost for just the second time at home under Pruett with a home SU record dropping to 50-2...

UTEP played much better than the 34-0 final vs San Diego St would indicate. Trailing 3-0 they were driving for a TD but were int'd and ret'd 85 yds for a TD early 2Q, a 14 point turnaround. For the game UTEP had a 15-14 FD edge and SDSt only had a 317-261 yd edge. SDSt's D is playing well now having gone 121:20 without allowing an offensive TD...

UNLV defeated Wisconsin 23-5 but the Badgers had a 17-11 FD edge. Rebel SS Jamaal Brimmer had a huge game with 2 int's and ret'd a fumble for a TD as UNLV failed to top 100 yards rushing or passing with just 187 total yards. QB Sorgi for UW was sacked 8 times and overthrew 8 rec's on a shaky 11-25 day with 2 int's and the Badgers also lost star RB Anthony Davis to a sprained ankle on the 2nd series of the game and his backup, Dwayne Smith, had 2 fumbles...

Virginia waxed W Michigan 59-16 but that included a 6-0 TO margin including 23 and 45 yd int returns for TD's. WM actually had 23-22 FD and 408-403 yd edges in the game. UVA replaced QB Anthony Martinez with Marques Hagans who had been at WR and he hit 12 of 20 for 160 yds...

Kansas dominated against Wyoming and led 35-14 with 10:24 left in the 2Q and it was 42-21 after 3Q's. The Jayhawks missed a 48 yd FG with 9:10 left and then yielded a 69 yd drive for a TD and 56 yd TD drive after an onside kick to make it a misleadingly close 42-35 final. Also due to the final 2 drives with 125 yards offense and 8 FD's, WY actually finished with a 27-19 FD edge but it was a comfortable Kansas win...

The Kentucky/Alabama game classifies as both a misleading final and a backdoor cover. Bama had 29-11 FD and 464-195 yd edges. They led the game 27-10 but UK got a 45 yd 3 play drive for a TD with 4:03 left for the backdoor cover. Bama rec'd the onside kick and ran out the clock.

MISLEADING STATS - In the NCSt/Ohio St game, NCSt had a 28-15 FD edge but over 17 of their FD's came either on the last 1:31 of the 1H when they trailed 14-0 (6 FD's) or after they trailed 24-7 and rec'd a fmbl'd punt with 8:26 left in the game. For the game, despite the huge FD edge, NCSt only had a 336-317 yd edge and OSU was protecting a big lead for most of their 3 OT game...

UConn had 23-20 FD and 386-344 yd edges vs BC but they trailed the game 24-7 early 3Q and got a 20 yd drive for a TD after an int. EC punted with 3:52 left. UConn went on a 63 yd, 14 play drive in the final 3:52 to take the lead in the stats.

DIV IAA MATCHUPS - Missouri had a dominating 509-212 yd edge vs 19th ranked E Illinois. In the 1H, however, MO did not really threaten to score and EI suffered 3 fumbles, had a punt blk'd and botched a FG attempt. MO got 2 TD's in the final 2:00 set up by a fumble and a blk'd punt and then dominated the 2H with Brad Smith showing no ill effects from LW's concussion...

SW Texas St is lea by Houston transfer Barrick Nealy who came into the game leading Div IAA with an avg of 382.5 total yds offense. Tulsa limited him to 213 yds passing and 22 yds rushing. It was a close game at the half at 7-3 and Tulsa did not cross midfield on their first 4 poss but they dominated the 2Q and finished with a 530-381 yd edge...

Speaking of transfers, former Arizona St QB Jeff Krohn now plays for Massachusetts (#4 in Div IAA). He hit a 65 yd TD pass in the 1Q and stunningly UMass led K-State 7-3 but the Wildcats would dominate the rest of the game with a 490-191 yd edge scoring the game's final 38 points and Krohn finished 14 of 26 for 164 yds. RB Darren Sproles, rushed for 152 yds. Jeff Schwinn, taking the place of starting QB Ell Roberson hit 17 of 26 for 228 yds...

LSU QB Matt Mauck is now 8-1 as a starter and his 305 yds passing were a career high. W Ill was ranked #1 in Div IAA coming in and pulled within 13-7. LSU would then score the game?s final 3 TD's...

Kent St won a game on a FG on the last play of the game for the second time this season with a 33 yd FG with :13 left vs Youngstown St. Kent got a 23 yd FG to tie it at 13 but YSU fmbl'd the KO and Kent knocked home the game winner but did have a 406-294 yd edge...

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E Kentucky almost got their first win over a IA team since 1995. They had 614 yds offense vs C Michigan, a Kelly-Shorts Stadium record and led the game 21-0 early and 34-14 in the 3Q. CM needed a 75 yd, 15 play drive for a TD with just :17 left to pull out the 42-41 win to avoid the upset...

Buffalo jumped out to a 7-0 lead over Colgate but then was absolutely pounded. Colgate scored the game's next 38 points and Buffalo actually got a garbage TD and 2 point conversion with 1:47 left in what was a 38-7 game. Colgate had a 32-13 FD edge and 621-243 yd edge...

Maryland pulled their starters before the 3Q in a 61-0 route of The Citadel in which MD had 28-7 FD and 565-137 yd edges...

UCF QB Ryan Schneider set a school record with 497 yds passing in a tight win over Fla Atlantic, 33-29. FA, playing just their second year of football, scored with :39 left on a TD pass and 2 pt conv to pull within 4. FA rec'd the onside kick and got to the UCF 38 but their Hail Mary pass fell incomplete.

 

[Master Capper]

COACH OF THE YEAR?? - Chan Gailey is doing a tremendous job at Georgia Tech this year. He's taken a team that lost 10 players to academics during the offseason and numerous others to injury and suspensions and his short-handed team upset Auburn last week and almost upset Florida St. Showing his coaching prowess, Bowden said after the game, "It was like checkers [and] they were a jump ahead of us. They did a better job of anticipating what we were going to do than what we did of what they were going to do". GT had an amazing 12-1 FD edge at the half and FSU's lone FD was via penalty. The yds were 171-26. FSU did a good job in the 2H as they outFD'd GT 17-3 and got 2 TD's in the final 7:09 to escape with the win.

COACHING MISTAKE - In the Utah/Cal game, Cal replaced Reggie Robertson at QB with Aaron Rodgers after 2 series and they had amounted almost 200 yards in the 1H. Cal got the ball on the 20 and elected to try to run the clock on the first two plays. When they hit a 32 yard pass on the 3rd play, they got down to the Utah 35 with :19 left in the half. They called time-out after getting a FD to the 20 with :01 left but it was not granted and Cal HC Tedford only had himself to blame for the lack of scoring on the final poss. In the 2H Cal battled back to a 24-21 lead but Utah got a TD with 1:06 left to lead by 7 and Cal's final poss ended on a fumble. It may have been a different game had Cal gone for it on their last drive of the 1H.

 

[Master Capper]

Should we follow the public when making a bet or not? Using Best Bettor lines from the link Jack supplies, I researched just how accurate the public is in capping games. I took the very first opening line and the very final line to see which way the public was going with each game and the results for the year are:


Public is 57-57 when either driving up the fav or lowering the favorite, but last week the Public took a whipping going 12-24 before that the public was driving the line to a winning percentage of 58%.


* I did not do this for totals only for sides.

 

[Master Capper]

First Play of the Week!

1. Arizona State +8.5***
2. ASU +255

Can't see the line staying at 8.5, allready has dropped from 9 so I hit the game early. Bgold makes some good points about this game in his thread and I have capped this game to be a even game with a margin for error +/- 2.

 

[Joe De]

MC this Reno game shows it's a strong play...one of the strongest i've seen in some time...it scares me becasue it's coming out of Nevada .

If it were a dog or getting points i'd be all over this play starting with monday and playing a nickelon every point that it goes up..but that didn't happen..wait until game if the line evens out play ..i might even drop a little on it..

by the way...2 plays i really like but have not played yet..played way too many now

Tennessee
LSU


by the way again got any thoughts on the Maryland /West Va game..

 

[AR182]

in case you follow this type of thing, the dog has covered the last 8 in the gt/ clemson series.

good luck

 

[Master Capper]

Thurs Plays


Tech-14 (bodog) over A@M for a single unit

I would of rated this game higher but due to the possible bad weather I am going to scale my play back. I feel Tech is a solid play in this spot for the following reasons: 1) Lets face it playing on the road at Lane Stadium is a bitch, the crowd noise is unbelievable. 2) A@M has some serious injuries to their Linebacker core, the leading tackler from last year is out for the season, and another OLB is doubtful tonight. 3) Utah had no problem running on A@M so I just don't see how they can stop the multiple weapons that Tech offers, we all saw the Utes last Thurs and their offense at this point is pretty one dimensional with Warfield getting the bulk of the snaps, Tech is multiple weapons and kones is as good or betterthan Warfield. 4) The Aggies have not beaten a top 10 team on the road in over 20 yrs, while Tech has been tough to beat in Blacksburg, last year in College Station the Aggies could only put up 3 points on Tech, Tech returns 9 starters from that defense. 5) Special Teams, it's hard for me to recall the last time I watched a game where Tech did not have a special teams play at home that resulted in points. Barring torrential weather I am going with Tech to win by 17.

Reno-San Jose

Still looking at the game may post a play later or pass.

 

[Joe De]

MC the stats were right on the number with Reno winning...and your numbers by 10-12 was correct...

 

[Master Capper]

Yea Joe I threw a few coins on Reno taking your perspective, which of your plays therest of the weekend is the strongest?

 

[Joe De]

if you like get on today don't let the line get away:
Missouri-21...strong play
Texas
Tennessee
and here is one that will blow you mind
INDIANA and the points like to get 9 but line is at 8'...
tonite i show Hawaii however it's so close the play would be on the home team

Pittsburgh come up a winner also..good luck

 

[Master Capper]

Friday

Small play on The Bows @ Pick EM*



Good Luck Cappers!!!!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL this weekend and thanks for the quality analysis.

HORNS

 

[Bigdog4242]

Joe De

Joe De

Any reasons for taking Indiana? I think this is one of the worst teams in the nation and I see Kentucky turning things around. The only thing I see is the injury to Lorenzen. Does anyone have any information on this injury? If he is ok UK will pass all over this week Indiana secondary!!


Bigdog

 

[Master Capper]

Bigdog,

I am not playing Indiana, that play is by my bud JoeDE and hopefully he will explain why he likes this game. In Joede's support I believe his "Don't Laugh Play" has hit over 85% of the time the past three years. Personally, I am passing the Indy game unless Joe post something to change my mind.