saturday college football plays for 9/27/03........

[gman2]

overall......11-6 (+8.9 units)
2 unit.......4-1 (+6.3 units)
1 unit.......7-5 (+2.6 units)

2 units.....syracuse (-4) over toledo
2 units.....ohio state (-20) over northwestern
1 unit......michigan state (+7) over iowa
1 unit......arizona state (+6) over oregon state
1 unit......akron/buffalo over 57.5

added: 1 unit......(2nd half play) iowa state (+3) over n.illinois
nothing to really "write-up" for a 2h. just feel like iowa state covers this game and possibly wins straight up. theyre moving the ball well against the huskies' defense

added: 1 unit.....mississippi state (+15) over lsu
cant pass this one up now that the number moved up over two TD's. msu's been a money burner this year, but they get a clean slate here in sec play. coaches always seem to get players to respond to that after an underachieving non-conf part of the schedule. msu aint good, but DD conference home dog on national tv is tough to pass up. bulldog players should rise to the occasion. lsu off an emotional win in a game they got dominated. i think lsu will be happy to take a 10 point win tonight

writeups/thoughts below on those games.

also, can say that im definitely looking at the cincy/miami matchup. right now, leaning heavily to cincy, but line almost seems too good to be true. this is a huge rivalry game and both quarterbacks are playing great football right now. lean to cincy with a likely play coming, but nothing concrete as of yet. anyone in southern ohio or kentucky with an opinion on this one (or anyone for that matter)? rarely am i dumbfounded by a line, but this one seems weird, especially given the rivalry

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Really like SU. This is their 3rd home game in a row and each time the line has been -4 for SU. GL

HORNS

 

[gman2]

2 units......syracuse (-4) over toledo

letdown angle definitely applies here, but thats really not the reason im playing syracuse in this one. i think the orangemen are the superior team. toledo has really performed well vs the big boys this year. good showing (albeit in a loss) at unlv. then the upset of marshall, followed by the upset of pittsburgh. scheduling spot just a little too grueling in my opinion for a mac team. take for example bowling green. they pulled off their upset of purdue, and then got to come home and have a quasi-scrimmage with liberty the next week before traveling to columbus for the osu game last week. then take marshall as example #2. they were able to go to tennessee and then schedule a mac game vs toledo at home before they went to kansas state. rockets dont have the luxury of any break. to go from a huge win in huntington v. marshall to a come-from-behind win against pitt and then travel to the carrier dome a week later- it just aint easy, especially given the fact that toledo has played a tough non-schedule to begin with. on paper, rockets match up fairly well. their run defense has been pretty impressive. unlv, marshall, and pitt all did very little on the ground. i think syracuse will definitely test them though. this is a game where i think depth and superior athletes start to show up. orangeman have been quietly efficient this year, and really putting up some nice offensive numbers (total offense outputs of 518 yds, 466 yds, and 451 yds in 3 games). im not suggesting toledo will be complacent, but i think the rockets will be absolutely thrilled to head into conference play 3-2 overall (and already 1-0 in mac play with a win over marshall). i just dont see rockets playing their best football saturday in the carrier dome, which is an unusual environment for a non-big east opponent. syracuse does have a possible lookahead game next week- but given the fact that toledo just upset the #11 team in the nation last week, i dont think anyone in new york is taking toledo lightly. cuse should control handle a solid toledo team that just might be running on empty after a grueling non-conf schedule including last weeks big comeback win. lots of respect for amstutz getting the big boys to schedule his guys often this season- just dont feel rockets have enough depth to get this upset

 

[gman2]

1 unit...michigan state (+7) over iowa
these spartans really jammed me last year. theyve always had a lot of talent but never really lived up to their potential the last few years. i cashed in against em with latech a few weeks ago, but im gonna try going with the spartans here. they rebounded from the latech upset with a solid win in south bend. i will keep that win in perspective, as notre dame is definitely overrated, but thats still a good win for msu on the road. not oblivious to a potential letdown from msu, but theres no reason for them not to be focused- especially at home playing a ranked team in their big ten opener. hawkeyes have michigan and ohio state after this one- but i dont think that will matter. i expect both teams to be focused. i simply think msu will hang the number. iowa solid again this year, but im not quite buying into them as a top ten team. top 25, yes. but not top 10. this is a game msu can win straight up if they play their game.

 

[buddy]

gman,

A little different perspective here...

My research shows a Road Fav needs pretty good credentials to cover in this role. Iowa certainly qualifies.

On the other side of the equation, Mich State has three win/NO COVERS in the role of a favorite. All of those were home efforts.

I applaud their outright win in South Bend, but now it's back to home turf where their record shows they haven't been able to take advantage.

I like Iowa -7.

 

[gman2]

2 units.....ohio state (-20) over northwestern
ive made great cash going anti-buckeye over the last year and a half, simply because ohio state allows inferior teams to hang around. and as much as i hate the buckeyes in general, i cant let any anti-osu bias get in the way of a solid money making opportunity. this is a spot where i think the bucks are grossly underpriced. i guess the linesmakers didnt have much of a choice after osu failed multiple times as DD favorites the last 3 weeks. but i think the buckeyes "struggles" end here. buckeyes should be able to run the ball....and run the ball....and run the ball...... and, well you get the point - against this porous wildcat defense. huge contrast in "physicalness". buckeyes will control both sides of the line of scrimmage in a big way. i really dont think northwestern will crack double digits in points. from what ive read locally, it seems like a lot of the buckeye players are tired of playing nailbiters and they want to bust out and rip someone a new a$$. northwestern should provide the perfect elixir for the bucks. if osu doesnt get a convincing cover in this game, id be very surprised. and it would only add to my overall bucks hatred. i gotta set that hatred aside and back the bucks here. northwestern just cannot matchup with ohio state on the interior lines. this one should be over early.

 

[AR182]

gman,

i'm with you on cuse & was thinking of osu. now that you picked it, i will start looking further.

thnaks for your writeups & continued success.

 

[gman2]

1 unit....arizona state (+6) over oregon state
i like the line value here. if you can erase asu's pathetic performance in iowa out of your mind, this play makes some sense. asu's struggles in big ten countrt werent exactly unexpected. beavers havent been all that impressive lately either, with a narrow espcape vs boise, a lethargic performance in a win over new mexico state, and an outright loss to fresno. im fully aware that corvallis is a very tough place so i cant say im surprised by the number. but i think arizona state bounces back with a possible outright win here.

 

[gman2]

1 unit....akron/buffalo over 57.5

really not a whole lot of in-depth logic here. akron is just one of those teams that eshews playing any sort of defense, and their offense is excellent led by frye. buffalo should be able to get some token scores vs the zips matador defense, but it still wont be enough to hang in because akron should really run an offensive clinic. had the zips/emu game over the total a few weeks ago and didnt cash it but even in that one, plently of opportunities and points left on the field. akron coach owens was mike martz-esque in that one, going for something absurd like 6 attempts on 4th down and long. zips almost seemed to be toying with emu in that one. this one should bust the total and be playing in the mid 60's. zips can use an offensive tuneup as they head into the tougher part of mac play. and if buffalo cant score some on akron- itll be a longer year than its already been

 

[gman2]

glad i laid off this miami/cincy game. im not one to call a game before it goes final, but cincy looks like garbage. miami with a chance to lay it on em

 

[gman2]

played iowa state in the 2h for 1 unit

 

[gman2]

added a 1 unit play on mississippi state (+15). they hang in this one imo.

 

[gman2]

calling it a night. barring a late collapse, gonna be a profitable day. thought about a small play on hawaii - but gonna pass. got enough exposure out there today, no sense in forcing anything. but do have a lean on hawaii but no play. gl