Rare system play in effect this week (19-3-1, 86% since 1973)

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GM

PleasureGlutton
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Scooped this from Winner's Edge....


When a team scored 24 or more points in each of their first 3 games of the season and won their last game straight up, and is a favorite of -7 or more points in their 4th game, play against them.

19 ? 3 ? 1 ATS = 86% since 1973.
13 ? 0 ? 1 ATS or 100% when our underdog (play on team) won at least 1of their prior games straight up.
11 ? 1 ? 1 ATS in non division games.
14 ? 2 ? 1 ATS when ? 8 or more.

Play on: DETROIT

(edit) My own thoughts here....

Wouldn't this be a prime spot for a letdown? 3-0 and everything is clicking, off a win vs Oakland, on MNF to boot, with KC on deck, 2nd straight home game, non-conference game, Clinton Portis is hurting, the Detroit WHO are coming to town?? And you're laying JUST 13 POINTS. Wow, how many letdown reasons can one team have??? LOL That's about all of them!
 
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chuckdman

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gm...

gm...

That is great info! Great find. I have to say that Denver did look focused on Monday but in the first half only. Oakland is just a huge mess right now. I never seen Ganon so mad so many times, but really who can blame him. Whoever is calling the offense, which probably is that coach, should be shot. Running it on 3rd and 20.. and throwing it on 3rd and 1? Plus all the penality as usual....Will Gannon take an early retirement.. we shall see.....

Now back to Denver, it was Oakland who looked completely as nasty as can be rather than Denver looking sharp. Yes, first quarter was nice on Denvers behalf but if Portis has limited playing time, and the 3rd string Running back Griffin (i think) who got hurt is out, Detroit looks like there're in a good spot. Plummer will have a hard time talking all the load. Only reason Plummer looked good is because the running game was working great. I think I'm almost convienced on taking the 13 points.. Don't see a smash but of course, it could happen with Detroits suspect secondary who is all mashed up....

Good info anyways, and good luck if you take it!.. Sure know I wouldn't take Denver -13.. :)
 
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Hooks

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Going to be asking a shitty team to cover for you :rolleyes:
This is a perfect letdown situation in the NFL, it has worked for years, the ONLY thing that screws this up may be the fact that Denver runs the shit out out of the ball and the Lions have yet to stop anyone from rushing the ball this year.
Add to this , Mariucci has to take his Lions to S.F. next week to face his former team (coming off an embarrassing loss)
Maybe a small look ahead for the H.C. :shrug:
Like I'm trying to say, RUN,RUN,RUN the ball!

Let's see how Portis is feeling this week. I still say Denver this week. Besides, K.C. has a tough game at Baltimore also, if they lose it, and Denver will know the outcome, it will give them added motivation to win the game for sole possession of 1st place in their division.
 
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On Top

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Any numbers for if the team is 3-0? I like this one alot because Denver won all 3 in blowouts. This thought process sucked me in to go against 'em Mon. night :( . Their pace has to take a breather. Can this be a shocker, a la Texans Week 1?

And yes GM, I think this is a prime spot for a letdown, and if it happens it shouldn't surprise any nfl follower.
 
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PleasureGlutton
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No idea on how it performs if the team is 3-0 or not. It's not my system so I can't take credit for it. But any system that is 86% over a 30 year period...well, I figured I had to cut and paste it. :D

Hooks - Nice to see a dissenting point of view, just to keep us all alert. We always have to remember to think and not go overboard on any bet, no matter how good it appears. There are no sure things out there, and I always feel terrible when I post something and it costs people money.

Thanks for all the nice comments everyone.
 
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twofingers

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Question is who is going to run the ball for Denver. Looks like Portis and Anderson both are banged up and could miss the game.

I agree that this is a let down situation for Broncos. Denver always plays with a ton of emotion vs. Oakland. Shanahan - Davis fued, Chance to take shots at Romo, division rival, etc. Impossible for them to approach this game with the same type of intensity.

Anyone know Denvers record in game following Oakland?
 
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AR182

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here is an intewresting angle that i read:


play against any game 4 nfl road favorite if they covered the spread in each of their first 3 games.

since 1986 the ats record is 15-2

play against indy & kc


good luck
 
M

Meestermike

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Denver history after Oakland at home

Denver history after Oakland at home

Sunday 9/28/2003 Week 4 Home Detroit ... Line -13 = Result ??? Hmmmm. I wonder !!!
Monday 9/22/2003 Week 3 Home Oakland W 31-10 W -4.5 U 46

Denver have covered three of their last four as a DD favorite. Detroit still hasn't won a road game since 2000, and is 4-12-1 ATS since then away.

DETROIT is 1-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.

On the opposite side from the history book...

DETROIT is 5-1 ATS in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points, 8-2 ATS in road games after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games, 8-1 ATS in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points since 1992.

DENVER is 1-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins, 1-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, 1-5 ATS in home games after a win by 10 or more points, 3-10 ATS after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, 0-6 ATS off a home win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 3-12 ATS in home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, 1-8 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games, 1-5 ATS in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

DETROIT is 1-5 ATS after allowing 5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game, and is 4-13 ATS after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game since 1992.

DETROIT is 3-10 ATS in road games after playing a game at home, 4-12 ATS in road games, 2-10 ATS in games played on a grass field, 1-6 ATS in non-conference games, 4-12 ATS in road games, 1-7 ATS in road games in the first half of the season, 1-5 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

DENVER is 26-12 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers, 5-1 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.

<hr>
Sunday 11/17/2002 Week11 Away Seattle W 31-9 W -5 U 43
Monday 11/11/2002 Week10 Home Oakland L 10-34 L -6 U 46

Sunday 1/6/2002 Week17 Away Indy L 10-29 L 2 U 51.5
Sunday 12/30/2001 Week16 Home Oakland W 23-17 W -1 U 41

Sunday 11/19/2000 Week12 Home San Diego W 38-37 L -9 O 41
Monday 11/13/2000 Week11 Home Oakland W 27-24 L -3.5 O 48.5

Sunday 12/5/1999 Week13 Home Kansas City L 10-16 L -3.5 U 38.5
BYE Week in between
Monday 11/22/1999 Week11 Home Oakland W 27-21 W -2 O 35

Sun. Night 11/29/1998 Week13 Away San Diego W 31-16 W -13.5 O 44.5
Sunday 11/22/1998 Week12 Home Oakland W 40-14 W -11.5 O 44.5

Sun. Night 11/30/1997 Week14 Away San Diego W 38-28 W -9.5 O 43
Monday 11/24/1997 Week13 Home Oakland W 31-3 W -10.5 U 47.5

Sun. Night 12/22/1996 Week17 Away San Diego L 10-16 L -1.5 U 41
Sunday 12/15/1996 Week16 Home Oakland W 24-19 L -6 O 41

Sunday 10/22/1995 Week08 Home Kansas City L 7-21 L -3 U 40.5
Monday 10/16/1995 Week07 Home Oakland W 27-0 W 3.5 U 45
 
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