A NY Perspective -- 9/25 -- 9/27

[NY Reb]

Last week: 6-6 -.4*
Season: 30-30 -31.4*

Another tread the water, kiss your sister kind of week for me. I've been around 50% all season, but my minus units are terrible. One bright light is that I've won 5 straight 10* games. Including my win with Tampa yesterday in the pros, I've won 6 straight 10* games. So I can pick big games, I've just got to learn to lay off the dinky stuff that's costing me. Here's hoping I finally put a solid week together.

7* Syracuse -3 (bought the hook)
Break up the MAC! (Last year I said to break up the Big East and look what happened!) When I first started handicapping about twenty-five years ago I was so naive. I thought it was all about lining up two teams against each other and deciding who would beat who. I guess that's why the public is usually on favorites. Now that I've matured I've learned it's much more about timing than simply who can beat who. This game does not come at a good time for Toledo. They've been up for two straight weeks beating Marshall and Pittsburgh, so we know they are a fine team. I simply don't see them getting up enough for a 3rd straight week to take on Syracuse in the Carrier Dome (which is about an hour and a half away from me, BTW.) The Orangemen, meanwhile, looked like they were getting their own selves together last week against a capable Central Florida team. I'm thinking this line could go up, which is why I'm on it early. I don't think Syracuse will have any problem covering it.

More later in this same thread.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl reb!

like the play, but got burned by the cuse against louisville, so vowed not to play them!!


toy

 

[NY Reb]

I know what you mean, Toy. Good luck this week!

5* TCU -14
Beat the rush, get down now. I will keep going against Arizona until they finally meet a spread they can cover, which is going to be a very large one. I do not think this is the week they will do that. They have no heart. They do not respect their coach, and they do not care how badly they play. Neither does anyone else in Tucson. No one there is interested in football. This line is already going up at some sites, so I suggest if you want it you get it now while it is at a reasonable 2 TDs.

 

[gridman]

Mr. Reb - On the NFL Forum, there's a good article by IXBender titled "good article for serious bettors" . Take a look at it and I'm sure you will find it quite interesting.

GM

 

[NY Reb]

Thank you. Yes, I know my weakness is taking too many games. I'm working on it. Thought I had it down last week. Was going to limit my play to my first 6 games. If I had done so I would have gone 5-1. Then at the end of the week I lost my discipline. Let's see what I can do this week. Thanks again, and take care.

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

NY, I have followed your picks and Marine Reb's picks and admire your capping. What do you think of LSU this weekend? I follow State and think that they have packed it in for the season. Houston's 3 and 4 man d-line got good pressure on fant all night. LSU will never leave him alone. I think that LSU even with a slight letdown will win by 3 touchdowns. State hasn't played a D yet.

 

[CollegeCapper]

sorry for jumping in the thread, reb. just wanted to give my two cents for jackie. buddy doesn't say much, so when he does it is my practice to listen. whatever way you go, good luck

 

[Cie]

LSU played poorly on offense vs. UGA, mostly because of that outstanding defense led by #33, #10 and #47. Mauck is furious at the offensive performance and I assure you that any chance of a letdown offensively will be wiped out once they sit through the game film this morning. LSU is good defensive team, but I expect a letdown on that side of the ball. 13 is a fishy line considering Tulane and Houston just beat the boys from Starkvegas and this is a "sandwich" game for the Tigers as Florida is next on their schedule. That being said, I expect Clayton and Company to dominate this game offensively.

LSU 41 MSU 20

GL to all...............

 

[NY Reb]

My opinion is that the Dawgs won't have much bark this year. I think they are almost as much a go against team as Arizona. I was going to go with Houston big last week, and got cold feet when I saw a few respectable services were on MSU. Probably the same services will be on State again, expecting an LSU letdown, but I just don't think the doggies have it in them to hold LSU to within two touchdowns. What's more, I don't think things will get better in doggie-land until they get a new coach. Sherrill's time has come and gone. If they are smart they will pull in alumnus Bobby Wallace who has created a program out of nothing at Temple.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Really like your SU and TCU plays! GL

HORNS

 

[NY Reb]

Good luck to you this week, Horns.

Thursday:

7* Nebraska -8.5 (Carib)
There was a time when Southern Miss would be the play in this situation. This isn't that time. Nebraska's defense looks too strong for USM to do much on offense, even at home. There isn't much talent at the skilled positions, and the offense is predictably pedestrian. Meanwhile, California exposed Southern Miss's defense to be more ordnary that folks have come to expect. The secondary and linebackers are truly good, but the DL is going to get pushed around by the Cornhuskers' OL. The home folks would enjoy a huge upset in Hattiesburg, but they won't get it in this game. Nebraska should win by at least a couple of touchdowns, especially if they can complete a pass or two.

Saturday

5* Alabama +1
You gotta give Arkansas credit for defeating a talented Texas team on the road, but chances of them repeating that act is extremely slim in Tuscaloosa. Bama has their problems for sure, but they still have a lot of highly recruited talent throughout the lineup. If the Tide could give mighty Oklahoma such a struggle, they should be able to handle the surging Hogs. Love getting Bama as a home dog once again. I won with them against the Sooners, and fully expect to collect on this one as well.

More later.

 

[NY Reb]

5* Southern Cal -13
I'm stepping out of my usual neighborhood to play this game. For about the last 10 years I have specialized in the SEC, ACC, Big East, and C-USA. I make it my business to know what's going on with all teams in those conferences. Sometimes, however, I see a game somewhere else that I particularly like or get a feeling about. Last week, for example, my 10* winner was Oregon over Michigan, but that one just looked obvious the minute I saw it. I know the Bears played the Trojans tough last year, in fact led most of the game. I had Cal in that game, and made of lot of dough on them last year. USC is coming off a bye week, and I just have a feeling they are going to come out strong in this game. They have way more talent, and when push comes to shove, they will do most of the shoving. Cal will continue to have their spots this year, but I don't think this week is one of them. I see the score something like 35-14.

 

[NY Reb]

I have 3 SEC games left to post. The SEC is the conference I have followed for more than 40 years, and the conference I feel I know best. Over the course of the season, I will give more SEC plays than any other conference. I am taking all 3 of these particular plays fairly large.

7* South Carolina +16
I kept waiting for this line to go higher, but I think it has leveled off at 16 and might even go lower. This is a bad time for Tennessee to be in this situation. As far as the comparative strengths of the teams, Tennessee could certainly cover this. However, they faced Florida last week, coming out sky high after winning handily, and they face dangerous Auburn the following week. The Cocks are not the most interesting team for the Vols to focus on right now. South Carolina is very solid defensively, and they tuned up their offense last week with an easy romp over East Carolina. What's more, they have the comfort of a bye for the following week. Ultimately, Lou Holtz is a more effective coach than Phil Fulmer. The unveiling of true freshman Demetris Summers at RB is a powerful weapon for the Cocks to unleash. He'll eat up enough yardage to keep the game respectable and the generous spread covered. Tennesee -- what can I say, they are very good. They showed it against Florida and they'll show it again against Auburn. However, they'll be content to simply win the game against South Carolina.

7* Ole Miss -1.5
I love it that most people are obviously going with Texas Tech in this game, even making it a big play. Certain games I just love going with the minority, and this is one of them. This should be a fascinating offensive display, and I regret that it isn't on TV as it would be an entertaining game to watch. B J Symons is a great QB with incredible accuracy, still he is no Eli Manning. Reports that Manning is overrated are highly exaggerated. Eli is leading the SEC in passing yardage and passing efficiency, completing 65% of his passes. He also leads the SEC in total offense. In fact, the Ole Miss team leads the SEC in total offense. Believe it or not, Ole Miss has more overall talent than Texas Tech. They have a few more highly touted recruits than the Red Raiders. They also remember last year's 42-28 lost at Lubbock, and they will be ready to play. The Rebel rushing attack will become stronger and stronger as RFR Jamal Pittman, 6-1, 240, and fast, becomes more and more a focal point of the attack. He was devastating in high school, and he's just beginning to get healthy for the first time since he's been in Oxford. The Rebs also have more talented WRs than TT, with just as much experience. Chris Collins is highly underrated and should be a shoe-in for All-SEC honors. Bill Flowers and Mike Espy are not far behind. The Reb pass defense has the potential to be really good, and the first team secondary is completely ready to go for the first time. There is considerable skill back there -- CBs Von Hutchins and Travis Johnson, and FS Eric Oliver are all special talents and will make plays. I look for a high-scoring affair with the higher score being recorded by the Rebs. The 1.5 spread is a trap, as it creates the illusion that TT is actually the better team who will probably win the game. Be careful of this public play. This will be by far the best game the Rebels have played all year. Rebs will be challenged by a dangerous team who can almost match them point for point, but they will prevail in the end.

10* LSU -13
I have won 5 straight 10* games in college, and 6 straight including the pros. The line is this low because the public expects a letdown for the Tigers after beating Georgia, and that MSU will finally unleash all their fury after losting 3 straight SU and ATS. The thing is, these programs are on two completely different levels. LSU is much more together as a team, while the Bulldogs are reeling from losing their last two games to Tulane and Houston. What will a highly skilled and well prepared LSU squad do to them? LSU is second in the SEC in scoring at 40 points a game; MSU is last in scoring defense, allowing 38.3 points a game. LSU is 3rd in the SEC in passing offense, while MSU is last in pass defense and 11th in rushing defense. Add to that the complete mastery that LSU has had over State, winning the last two seasons by scores of 31-13 and 42-0. LSU will methodically go up and down the field, while their highly effective defense will slow down State's offensive threats. MSU might get their points, but there is no way they can cover a 13-point spread against the Tigers. I don't think things will get better in doggie-land until they get a new coach. Sherrill's time has come and gone. If they are smart they will pull in alumnus Bobby Wallace who has created a program out of nothing at Temple.
Easily the game of the week.

I might come across one or two more games at the most that look really good to me, yet these already posted might be my only games of the week. If I do see something I can't pass up, I will post it here, along with reasons why.

Good luck to each of you, friends.

 

[Cie]

Nice Card. I am also on SC, LSU, USC, and Bama. GL to us.

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

Great call on LSU reb, I couldn't agree more. People are giving State way too much credit on being able to bounce back. They have no bounce in them anymore. They know the season is lost and the coaches are as good as gone. This is the game of the week easily. I'm a STATE grad and have never seen a team that is this poor fundamentaly and mentally. LSU's backups can win by 20. Games are won and lost in the trenches and by this comparison, it's an NFL team vs a high school team. I also think the Rebels are undervalued this weekend. Good Luck!

 

[KsYaS]

Hey NY Reb, goog luck, but I will share maybe something that you will consider not usefull, but works for me, almost all the time when I saw a -2.5 or less chalk, I go against them, just because the dog have the value there, basically I think vegas put some chity close lines like this expecting the people goes with the chalk because is an "easy" cover of a superior team!! Off course, I am lookinga at Texas TEch

Good luck man!!

Javier

 

[NY Reb]

c.....er a'nt w.r..ng.

can't res..nd 2 yew.

g..d ..c. 2 yew!

 

[NY Reb]

Cie, hope we both have a great weekend! Good luck to you!

Jackie, glad to hear that you see things the same way. Good luck to you!

KsYas, hope you have some winners this week! I can see that you like Texas Tech, but I feel very comfortable with my pick on Ole Miss. I guess Vegas quaked when I posted, because Ole Miss went fron -1.5 to -3 within hours

 

[NY Reb]

Here's an overview of all my plays this week, with the lines at which I got them:

Thursday:
7* Nebraska -8.5

Saturday:
10* LSU -13
7* Syracuse -3
7* Ole Miss -1.5
7* South Carolina +16
5* Alabama +1
5* TCU -14
5* USC -13

Best of luck to all!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL and nice job tonight!

HORNS