Just some randoms thoughts on some of the games this week:
Nebraska-Southern Miss
Anyone else concerned about laying double digits with the Huskers due to their anemic offense, inability to score in the red zone and playing on grass?
BC-Ball State
Looks like a nice spot for a blowout by the Eagles, but after last week I am a little afraid of going against the MAC teams.
Minn-PSU
Like most everyone else when this game first came out I thought the Gophers were a solid play but now I am starting to rethink this position. Is anyone else concerned that of the Gophers first 4 opponets none of them are ranked above 100 in the Sagarin rankings? Or that through the first 4 games that the Gophers have only had to throw 56 passes? No way they can sustain winning in the Big 10 by having such a high ratio of runs to pass, my concern is just how good are the Gophers? PSU has looked lethargic this year, the offensive line is a mess and the homefield advantage at Happy Valley sure is not what it use to be.
Wake-UVA
Anyone have any info on Schaub? This game has been circled all week.
NW-OSU
Amazing stat on the buckeyes defense this year they have given up 96 yards rushing for the whole year holding opp to a 0.9 per carry average. NW is really the first team with the possible exception of BGSU that is going to show OSU a balanced attack and OSU has been getting killed on the underneath 5-7 yard passes all year which NW excels at, so this game could be close. One note on NW to bear in mind for future games, Walker has no faith in his field goal kicking, for the year he has only tried 2 field goals and both missed, against Duke he failed to kick field goals of 43, 45 and 39 yards by either going for it or punting.
IND-Mich
Hoosiers screwed me last week completed dominated the game but not the scoreboard, drove into Kentucky territory 8 times and failed to score on those 8 drives. They have lost their top rec for this week. Anyone else read where Lloyd Carr is whining about the crown at Oreg field being 8 to 10 inches higher in the middle than it usually is? He said this caused Navarre to overthrow receivers along the sidelines and forced them to go outside their gameplan. Anyone like a side here? I cant seem to see a play either way.
Iowa-MSU
This game is screaming play me under, Iowa has lost both starting rec's and will more than likely try to establish the ground game and control the clock. MSU is 3rd in the nation vs the run so it should be interesting. I see this as a possible down spot for Hawk's or a under play.
ND-Pur
I can still taste the loss from last year when I bet Purdue plus 5 or 6 and they lost by 7 to ND, the Irish in that game never scored a offensive TD. Seems to me that there are some serious problems in store for the Irish this year and I dont see them getting it turned around against a solid defense like Purdue. The Irish are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by using Holiday in the West Coast offense, he is a true option QB and he should of stayed with his original committment to Neb where style would of fit in. Irish fans that are basing there hope in Brady Quinn will have to live with his freshman mistakes while he adjust to the speed of the college game, it's alot faster than the competition that he saw at Dublin High.
Wisky-ILL
Damn the line is begging for action on Wisky, but Illinois has a deceiving record of 1-3 and in the three losses they have outgained all of their opponets. Wisky will be without Davis and Alverez has traditionally struggled against teams with strong passing attacks. My concern on playing ILL is that they have no running game so even if they take the lead they cant control the clock, thus maybe over is the play?
Ole Miss-Tex Tech
This game has shoot out written all over it, but I cannot decide on a side for this game. Ole Miss should be rested and has the home field and the better qb, but Tech has the better coach. One concern I have on Tech is that they got banged up on defense last week and could be minus three starters coming into this game, Leach has put a gag order on his staff, if anyone talks to the media about any injuries then they are terminated, sounds like there are some serious injuries there.
LSU-MISS ST
What incriminating information does Jackie Sherrill have against the President of Miss State that he can continue to lose and keep his job? This game is a classic letdown spot for LSU but I can't back Sherrill's team, they have the NCAA sniffing around the program and the defense is a sieve. LSU has owned this series ATS but unless someone can justify a side I am going to pass this ESPN game.
SFla-Army
Law of large numbers states that Army should cover here may be worth a look. Anyone have a opinion on why Sfla wil lcover?
UNC-NCST
Looks like a nice spot to back the Heels, with McClendon and Hicks both out for the Pack, I can't see State losing but I think 10 points is the spread they will win by.
CFU-Kent
Scratch for me, Kent's qb situation is shaky, Cribbs and Smith are both hurt and Polk is too green. CFU is a better team and may open up on the Flashes if Cribbs doesnt play.
WMU-OU
Can't help but like WMU here they seem like the better program at this point although strange things can happen in Athens.
Cinc-Miami OH
Classic Qb matchup, both Gino and Big Ben are solid players that have started since they walked onto campus. Intial look at the game says take the Cat's and the points, but the MAC karma makes me unsure at this point.
Temple-Lou
Funny game one team that is being booted from the big East playing a team that is going to be offered membership to the Big East. Owls have always been a tough team to cap for me, they are so erratic unless someone can show me why to play either side I am passing.
Utah-CSU
Be careful on backing the Rams in this game, they have some issues at RB, both the starter and the backuop left the game last week injured (Dressen, Alconcel) and they have been hit hard at the linebacker position with injuries. I have won with the Ute's all year but they will go into this game losing their blindside tackle for the year and hoping that backup qb Smith can continue to play without making mistakes. The Ute's will no doubt put the ball into the hands of Warfield 30-35 times in this game, thus trying to control the clock. CSU has owned this series and Van Pelt is danfgerous but if the line makes it to 7 then I will hit the Ute's again.
BYU-Aforce
Damn is BYU beat up they are the walking wounded but if past history is any indication this game should be a close low scoring affair. I have trouble backing BYU in this spot because of Berry and Whalen being out but their defense has been solid pretty much all year.
Ark-Bama
How can you not go with the Hogs here? They won in Austin and seem to be a physical team and besides Lee Corso said no way Bama wins this game. Although Croyle smoked the Hogs last yr in his 1st start beating them 30-12 as a 7.5 dog.
WSU-Oreg
Anyone think this is going to be a letdown spot for Oreg? WSu has been competitive on the road but those games don't look so strong now that COL and ND have tanked.
Stan-Wash
Washington has made my DO NOT BET LIST, I can't win for losing with them, I bet them to win they fold I bet them to not cover they explode. So if I was playing this game I would bet them to cover, thus Stanford is a mortal lock.
ISU-NILL
How can you go against the Huskies here? Yes the Cyclones beat up on fellow MAC member Ohio but the Huskies are a different breed. Anyone playing ISU, if so what do you see in the value?
ASU-Oreg State
Man I am stil lwaiting for the Sun Devils offense to blow up against Iowa, yikes was that a letdown. For some reason I think they hang within the number vs OSU.
USC-Cal
Alot of points on the road vs a quality program but I have yet to see any defense other than possibly FSU that is better then the men of Troy.
Akr-Buff
On the surface there is no way that Buff can hang with the Zips offense, Frye is one of the most underrated qb's in the country and Hendry has the running game going. The Zips defense is stil lsuspect but I can't see going any other way then backing the Zips here.
Mary-EMU
Terps can probably name the score here, EMU is brutal! Only concern is if Ralph decides to rest the starters at half.
Tol-Cuse
What would this line be if Toledo had not beaten Pitt? I assume it would be at least 7 so I feel there is value on Cuse, but I still cant stand Coach Pasq.
Rut-Navy
Schiano is finally getting dividends from his first few recruiting classes and it should begin to show even more. My concern with backing the Knights in a close game is their field goal kicking, they are 6-17 for the year and Rutgers went through 3 kickers during the Army game and all three contributed a miss.
Fla-Tucky
Zook's offensive gameplan surely will be spiced up this week, after his bland play calling last week Gator Nation is on fire. I look for FLA to try and stretch the field more this week and try to get away from the dinking passing game. The Cat's seem to stay in the game even when outplayed they beat Ind after allowing the Hoosiers to own everything but the scoreboard and they got a backdoor cover vs Bama late in the game, I dont like either side looking like a pass to me.
FSU-Duke
Too man ypoints for me to back FSU here, and I cant trust Duke either PASS>
Scar-Tenn
Everywhere I look people are saying this is a flat spot for Vols but they have won 10 straight vs Cocks and the defense has been stifling. 16 may be alot of points to ask the Vols to cover since Houston is hurt but the Cock's offense seems to struggle against high caliber opponets but I think they can keep this a low scoring game and hang inside the number.
Tech-Vandy
Vandy is due, anyone else like them outright this week?
