DR BOB - 3* KANSAS, ARKANSAS 2*PITTSBURGH, BOISE ST,
2*MARYLAND, SAN DIEGO ST UNDER
NEVADA SPORTS GROUP - KANSAS, NEW MEXICO STATE, STANFORD, RUTGERS, HAWAII
MIKE LEE - 6% MISSISSIPPI, WASHINGTON STATE, IOWA ST,
STANFORD, VANDERBILT
GOLD SHEET 1.5 UNITS - TROY STATE 1 UNIT--CALIFORNIA--
1 UNIT--NORTH TEXAS, MICHIGAN STATE UNDER
ASA 4*WASHINGTON STATE, ILLINOIS OVER 3*PURDUE, SYRACUSE
ALATEX 20*ARKANSAS
These are the newsletter selections for North Coast (Phil Steele)
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* BYU over Air Force - The Cougars have been very solid at defending the wishbone with a 12-6 ATS mark the L/18 and have our #23 ranked defense. BYU did give us a couple of wins vs the wishbone like the College Play of the Year in 1989 and later with a rare 4?* Late Phone Selection. Air Force has covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. The only game AF didn?t cover was in 2001 when BYU simply led 63-13 after the 3Q as a 12? pt HF to deliver a Winner as a 4* Late Phone Selection. AF is 1-9 SU (only won in 1982) & 3-6 ATS in Provo. BYU is 4-9 ATS the L/13 MWC HG. AF has perhaps their best team under DeBerry but the teams? stats coming in are misleading here as AF has faced a very soft opening slate and come in here undefeated, while BYU has faced 4 tough opp?s. BYU is coming off a tough upset loss LW vs Stanford. Fr QB John Beck made his first start LW, replacing Matt Berry, who broke his hand and Beck had 279 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio. RB Reynaldo Brathwaite has 310 rush yds (6.0). Air Force was very fortunate to escape with a SU win in their only road game this year as they trailed NW 21-7 and BYU rates a clear strength of schedule edge and always matches up well in this. FORECAST: BYU 30 Air Force 20
3* WASHINGTON over Stanford - The Huskies are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS in the series since ?80, and 5-0 SU & ATS L/5 in Seattle. The Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS L/9 conference openers. We noted LW that Gilbertson?s more conservative approach would make him a better HF than Neuheisel was and he has covered both times in that role TY (both frontdoor ******). The Huskies do have a big game at UCLA on deck. UW?s biggest edge is their #11 ranked D-line vs a Stanford O-line with just 1 starter back that is making its 2nd road start in a very loud environment. UW has a big edge on offense (#15 vs #65) and Stanford QB rFr Trent Edwards was only 10 of 23 for 25 yds in his 1st start while the team had its worst ever passing day vs BYU LW with a total of 56 yds. Both teams have good defenses (#21 vs #24) but Wash Sr QB Cody Pickett has the experience and the WR cast of Reggie Williams & Charles Frederick to be the difference here. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 37 Stanford 13
3* USC over CALIFORNIA - This is already Cal?s sixth game and they are off of their 31-24 upset at Illinois. USC is 5-2 ATS as an AF the L/3Y. In their current 11 game winning streak USC has won by an avg score of 41-19 and they have not allowed an opposing rusher to gain 100 yds for 16 straight games. USC QB Matt Leinart is avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio and a 140.0 efficiency rating (better rating than Palmer after 3 LY). LW Cal QB Aaron Rodgers (PS#14JC) got his first start and threw for 263 yds (54%). The Bears main target at WR is Geoff McArthur who has 35 rec (17.9). Rankings-wise the Trojans have big edges (#8 vs #51 off & #2 vs #67 D). Since 5H?s are so rare for us we always like to mention when we used one in a series and in 1987 we used USC (-10) here in Berkeley as our Sept 5* and USC won 31-14. With the rash of upsets to Top 10 teams LW, USC should be well prepared and they are the much more talented team and already won at Auburn by 20. FORECAST: USC 35 CALIFORNIA 13
2* Pitt over TEXAS A&M - LY?s game was a defensive struggle (see Past History). A&M just played VT last Thursday and led by QB Reggie McNeal had a 216-109 yard edge at the half before giving up two late TD?s in the loss. The Aggies are 29-1 SU their L/30 vs non-conf opp?s at Kyle Field but lost LY to VT. We think the Aggies are headed towards a 6-6 season and even though Pitt disappointed us LW they are still our pick to win the Big East Title. In their upset loss to Toledo LW the Panther secondary was diced for 461 yds by TU QB Bruce Gradkowski. Pitt was without 3 OL LW but Harris said they should return for this one. Panther QB Rod Rutherford leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 296 ypg (65%) with an 11-2 ratio. Star Pitt WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes in LY?s loss as a frosh and remember that A&M lost its top CB (#1 DC Sammy Davis) to graduation. The Wrecking Crew has not faced a QB or a WR of this caliber yet this season & has allowed 197 ypg (4.2) rushing vs 3 ground-oriented offenses. The 6-4 Fitzgerald may cause matchup problems for the Ags secondary in which all 4 starters are 5-10. Also A&M top LB Jared Morris was lost for the year 2 weeks ago. Look for the Panthers to rebound after blowing a big lead LW. FORECAST: Pitt 27 TEXAS A&M 20
2* Arkansas over ALABAMA - The home team has won and covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. In 1999 we used Alabama as our September 5*, and they dominated much more than the final indicated winning 35-28 as 2 pt HD?s with a 22-14 FD edge and won despite 6 TO?s. The 2 years prior to that we won with two 4* Late Phone Plays on the Hogs and they not only pulled outright upsets in those games, but covered by 20? and 25? pts. LY Alabama took the Hogs by surprise pulling off a 30-12 win as 6? pt road dogs. Bama QB Brodie Croyle was making his 1st career start, and threw for 285 yds as Bama outgained Ark 552-299. Ark managed to avoid massive letdown after their huge win over Texas as they covered vs N Texas LW (31-7). Bama may have been looking ahead to this game as they shockingly lost to N Illinois. Ark is just 3-8 as an AF under Nutt. Ark RB Cedric Cobbs has rushed for 3 consecutive 100 yd games accumulating 364 yds (7.0). Bama RB Shaud Williams has 459 yds (5.2). Bama?s D has only allowed 67 ypg rushing, while Ark?s has allowed 130 ypg, but the 212 yds allowed vs Tulsa were mostly by backups. The last time these two teams met in Alabama, the final was misleading as Ark lost 31-10 despite a 21-11 FD edge. The Tide played #1 Oklahoma tough at home this year but the Hogs beat a stronger Texas team on the road and have the more talented team and get the SU road win. FORECAST: Arkansas 17 ALABAMA 13
2* Maryland over E MICHIGAN - In 2001 we used MD as a 4* Small College Play and they won easily 50-3 over EM. LY we used MD again, as a 3* Small College Play and the Early Bird Play of the Week and once again they gave us the win, as MD has now outscored EM 95-6 in this short series. In LY?s matchup QB Scott McBrien threw for 300 yds and left the game in the 3Q, 38-0. MD has outscored their foes 95-7 since their 2 losses TY and that mirrors last season when they went 8-2 ATS down the stretch. McBrien is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 1-3 ratio. RB Bruce Perry returned LW. EM is just 3-8 ATS as a HD under HC Woodruff. EM had the worst defense in Div IA LY and after playing 2 of 4 games vs IAA opponents and are #116 TY. MD does have Clemson on deck but are 16-3 as a fav under Friedgen. This is perhaps the biggest talent mismatch that will be lined TY. FORECAST: Maryland 51 E MICHIGAN 3
2*MARYLAND, SAN DIEGO ST UNDER
NEVADA SPORTS GROUP - KANSAS, NEW MEXICO STATE, STANFORD, RUTGERS, HAWAII
MIKE LEE - 6% MISSISSIPPI, WASHINGTON STATE, IOWA ST,
STANFORD, VANDERBILT
GOLD SHEET 1.5 UNITS - TROY STATE 1 UNIT--CALIFORNIA--
1 UNIT--NORTH TEXAS, MICHIGAN STATE UNDER
ASA 4*WASHINGTON STATE, ILLINOIS OVER 3*PURDUE, SYRACUSE
ALATEX 20*ARKANSAS
These are the newsletter selections for North Coast (Phil Steele)
NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4* BYU over Air Force - The Cougars have been very solid at defending the wishbone with a 12-6 ATS mark the L/18 and have our #23 ranked defense. BYU did give us a couple of wins vs the wishbone like the College Play of the Year in 1989 and later with a rare 4?* Late Phone Selection. Air Force has covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. The only game AF didn?t cover was in 2001 when BYU simply led 63-13 after the 3Q as a 12? pt HF to deliver a Winner as a 4* Late Phone Selection. AF is 1-9 SU (only won in 1982) & 3-6 ATS in Provo. BYU is 4-9 ATS the L/13 MWC HG. AF has perhaps their best team under DeBerry but the teams? stats coming in are misleading here as AF has faced a very soft opening slate and come in here undefeated, while BYU has faced 4 tough opp?s. BYU is coming off a tough upset loss LW vs Stanford. Fr QB John Beck made his first start LW, replacing Matt Berry, who broke his hand and Beck had 279 yds (67%) with a 1-2 ratio. RB Reynaldo Brathwaite has 310 rush yds (6.0). Air Force was very fortunate to escape with a SU win in their only road game this year as they trailed NW 21-7 and BYU rates a clear strength of schedule edge and always matches up well in this. FORECAST: BYU 30 Air Force 20
3* WASHINGTON over Stanford - The Huskies are 17-2 SU and 13-5-1 ATS in the series since ?80, and 5-0 SU & ATS L/5 in Seattle. The Huskies are just 2-6-1 ATS L/9 conference openers. We noted LW that Gilbertson?s more conservative approach would make him a better HF than Neuheisel was and he has covered both times in that role TY (both frontdoor ******). The Huskies do have a big game at UCLA on deck. UW?s biggest edge is their #11 ranked D-line vs a Stanford O-line with just 1 starter back that is making its 2nd road start in a very loud environment. UW has a big edge on offense (#15 vs #65) and Stanford QB rFr Trent Edwards was only 10 of 23 for 25 yds in his 1st start while the team had its worst ever passing day vs BYU LW with a total of 56 yds. Both teams have good defenses (#21 vs #24) but Wash Sr QB Cody Pickett has the experience and the WR cast of Reggie Williams & Charles Frederick to be the difference here. FORECAST: WASHINGTON 37 Stanford 13
3* USC over CALIFORNIA - This is already Cal?s sixth game and they are off of their 31-24 upset at Illinois. USC is 5-2 ATS as an AF the L/3Y. In their current 11 game winning streak USC has won by an avg score of 41-19 and they have not allowed an opposing rusher to gain 100 yds for 16 straight games. USC QB Matt Leinart is avg 216 ypg (60%) with a 6-3 ratio and a 140.0 efficiency rating (better rating than Palmer after 3 LY). LW Cal QB Aaron Rodgers (PS#14JC) got his first start and threw for 263 yds (54%). The Bears main target at WR is Geoff McArthur who has 35 rec (17.9). Rankings-wise the Trojans have big edges (#8 vs #51 off & #2 vs #67 D). Since 5H?s are so rare for us we always like to mention when we used one in a series and in 1987 we used USC (-10) here in Berkeley as our Sept 5* and USC won 31-14. With the rash of upsets to Top 10 teams LW, USC should be well prepared and they are the much more talented team and already won at Auburn by 20. FORECAST: USC 35 CALIFORNIA 13
2* Pitt over TEXAS A&M - LY?s game was a defensive struggle (see Past History). A&M just played VT last Thursday and led by QB Reggie McNeal had a 216-109 yard edge at the half before giving up two late TD?s in the loss. The Aggies are 29-1 SU their L/30 vs non-conf opp?s at Kyle Field but lost LY to VT. We think the Aggies are headed towards a 6-6 season and even though Pitt disappointed us LW they are still our pick to win the Big East Title. In their upset loss to Toledo LW the Panther secondary was diced for 461 yds by TU QB Bruce Gradkowski. Pitt was without 3 OL LW but Harris said they should return for this one. Panther QB Rod Rutherford leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 296 ypg (65%) with an 11-2 ratio. Star Pitt WR Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 passes in LY?s loss as a frosh and remember that A&M lost its top CB (#1 DC Sammy Davis) to graduation. The Wrecking Crew has not faced a QB or a WR of this caliber yet this season & has allowed 197 ypg (4.2) rushing vs 3 ground-oriented offenses. The 6-4 Fitzgerald may cause matchup problems for the Ags secondary in which all 4 starters are 5-10. Also A&M top LB Jared Morris was lost for the year 2 weeks ago. Look for the Panthers to rebound after blowing a big lead LW. FORECAST: Pitt 27 TEXAS A&M 20
2* Arkansas over ALABAMA - The home team has won and covered 4 of the L/5 in this series. In 1999 we used Alabama as our September 5*, and they dominated much more than the final indicated winning 35-28 as 2 pt HD?s with a 22-14 FD edge and won despite 6 TO?s. The 2 years prior to that we won with two 4* Late Phone Plays on the Hogs and they not only pulled outright upsets in those games, but covered by 20? and 25? pts. LY Alabama took the Hogs by surprise pulling off a 30-12 win as 6? pt road dogs. Bama QB Brodie Croyle was making his 1st career start, and threw for 285 yds as Bama outgained Ark 552-299. Ark managed to avoid massive letdown after their huge win over Texas as they covered vs N Texas LW (31-7). Bama may have been looking ahead to this game as they shockingly lost to N Illinois. Ark is just 3-8 as an AF under Nutt. Ark RB Cedric Cobbs has rushed for 3 consecutive 100 yd games accumulating 364 yds (7.0). Bama RB Shaud Williams has 459 yds (5.2). Bama?s D has only allowed 67 ypg rushing, while Ark?s has allowed 130 ypg, but the 212 yds allowed vs Tulsa were mostly by backups. The last time these two teams met in Alabama, the final was misleading as Ark lost 31-10 despite a 21-11 FD edge. The Tide played #1 Oklahoma tough at home this year but the Hogs beat a stronger Texas team on the road and have the more talented team and get the SU road win. FORECAST: Arkansas 17 ALABAMA 13
2* Maryland over E MICHIGAN - In 2001 we used MD as a 4* Small College Play and they won easily 50-3 over EM. LY we used MD again, as a 3* Small College Play and the Early Bird Play of the Week and once again they gave us the win, as MD has now outscored EM 95-6 in this short series. In LY?s matchup QB Scott McBrien threw for 300 yds and left the game in the 3Q, 38-0. MD has outscored their foes 95-7 since their 2 losses TY and that mirrors last season when they went 8-2 ATS down the stretch. McBrien is avg 142 ypg (51%) with a 1-3 ratio. RB Bruce Perry returned LW. EM is just 3-8 ATS as a HD under HC Woodruff. EM had the worst defense in Div IA LY and after playing 2 of 4 games vs IAA opponents and are #116 TY. MD does have Clemson on deck but are 16-3 as a fav under Friedgen. This is perhaps the biggest talent mismatch that will be lined TY. FORECAST: Maryland 51 E MICHIGAN 3
