Below are my Calculated Lines versus Actual Lines, it comes from a computer program that I developed 4 years ago and looks to find the most valued undergogs or, in other words, lines that are juiced up a little. These games are usually ones in which the favorite might be a public favorite in betting terms. In a lot of instances you will have to put good money on a bad team but in a spot where the bad teams are undervalued. This is my first time going public with this in the 4 years that I have been tinkering with it. Each year it has gotten stronger.
Houston at E.C.U.
Actual Line(AL): Opened at HOU-4 now -2
Calculated Line(CL): Hou -2.02 thru ECU -2.54 (AVG. ECU -0.03)
When the variation of the CL shows both teams as potential FAVS it becomes a NO PLAY, but it is a LEAN on ECU because of the Average CL.
WVU at Miami
AL: Mia-27
CL: Mia-18.35 thru 23.60 (Avg. Mia -21.12)
PLAY ON WVU (line is off apprx 3.5-9.5 points, avg off 6
Oregon at Utah
AL: Ore -3
CL: Ore -2.03 thru -6.07 (avg -4.31)
NO PLAY-fair line thru 6
Vir Tech at Rutgers
AL: VT -25
CL: VT -21.08 thru -24.07 (avg -23.32)
NO PLAY
Maryland vs Clemson
AL: Mar -7
CL: Clemson -2.51 thru Mary -3.63 (avg Mary -1.41)
No Play(variation), Lean on Clemson
Wisconsin at Penn St
AL: Wi -2
CL: WI -0.27 thru -5.66 (avg WI -2.5)
No Play-fair line
Mich St vs Indiana
AL: MSU -15
CL: MSU -7.11 thru -14.69 (avg MSU -12.02)
No Play-slight lean on Dog
Minnesota at NWU
AL: Minn -10
CL: Minn -8.3 thru -13.99 (avg -10.60)
No play-fair line
Virginia at UNC
AL: VU -8
CL: VU -2.77 thru -7.82 (avg -4.97)
No play-slight lean on Dog
Tennessee at Auburn
AL: AUB -2
CL: Tenn -3.24 thru -12.88 (avg tenn -6.84)
PLAY ON TENNESSEE-line is off
I'll skip the next few No Plays and get to the next Play:
Fresno State at Colorado State
AL: CSU -6.5
CL: FSU -0.22 thru -4.9 (avg FSU -2.48)
Play On FSU-line is off
Three Plays so far:
Tennessee +2
Fresno State +6.5
West Virg +27
Leans:
UNC +8
Clemson +7
Indiana +15
East Carolina +2
Please note the strength or weakness of these plays can and will vary as line movement occurs the only play I locked in was Tennessee +2 yesterday because I knew where that was going. The benefit is to wait to the last possible minute to wagers on Plays in order to get a feel for the strength of the play.
Last weeks winners:
Rice
New Mex St
Arizona
Indiana
Wake
UNC
Texas Tech
Northwestern
LSU-rare favorite
Last weeks loser:
Penn State
Last weeks push:
Georgia Tech-rare favorite especially on road.
Of course I'm not applying last weeks results to anything since they weren't posted and I could be bullshitting all of you for all you know. I have been working hard on this for years now and I want to put it to the test. I hate to call it a system because everyone claims to have a system. In 4 years I have had great weeks and so-so weeks but never a bad week. A lot depends on how many dogs are on the board. This week looks to be slim pickens and could actually find some favorites as value plays but I doubt that. Once again, this is a program I have come up with that looks to find Lines that are out of whack, but mostly it's a program that seeks out the favorites that are overvalued. And lastly, we all know that all the number crunching in the world can have no impact on what takes place on the FB field. That's why they play. I just try to put my investments in the best situation for profit.
More to come as I work out all the numbers.
GL,
Mick
Houston at E.C.U.
Actual Line(AL): Opened at HOU-4 now -2
Calculated Line(CL): Hou -2.02 thru ECU -2.54 (AVG. ECU -0.03)
When the variation of the CL shows both teams as potential FAVS it becomes a NO PLAY, but it is a LEAN on ECU because of the Average CL.
WVU at Miami
AL: Mia-27
CL: Mia-18.35 thru 23.60 (Avg. Mia -21.12)
PLAY ON WVU (line is off apprx 3.5-9.5 points, avg off 6
Oregon at Utah
AL: Ore -3
CL: Ore -2.03 thru -6.07 (avg -4.31)
NO PLAY-fair line thru 6
Vir Tech at Rutgers
AL: VT -25
CL: VT -21.08 thru -24.07 (avg -23.32)
NO PLAY
Maryland vs Clemson
AL: Mar -7
CL: Clemson -2.51 thru Mary -3.63 (avg Mary -1.41)
No Play(variation), Lean on Clemson
Wisconsin at Penn St
AL: Wi -2
CL: WI -0.27 thru -5.66 (avg WI -2.5)
No Play-fair line
Mich St vs Indiana
AL: MSU -15
CL: MSU -7.11 thru -14.69 (avg MSU -12.02)
No Play-slight lean on Dog
Minnesota at NWU
AL: Minn -10
CL: Minn -8.3 thru -13.99 (avg -10.60)
No play-fair line
Virginia at UNC
AL: VU -8
CL: VU -2.77 thru -7.82 (avg -4.97)
No play-slight lean on Dog
Tennessee at Auburn
AL: AUB -2
CL: Tenn -3.24 thru -12.88 (avg tenn -6.84)
PLAY ON TENNESSEE-line is off
I'll skip the next few No Plays and get to the next Play:
Fresno State at Colorado State
AL: CSU -6.5
CL: FSU -0.22 thru -4.9 (avg FSU -2.48)
Play On FSU-line is off
Three Plays so far:
Tennessee +2
Fresno State +6.5
West Virg +27
Leans:
UNC +8
Clemson +7
Indiana +15
East Carolina +2
Please note the strength or weakness of these plays can and will vary as line movement occurs the only play I locked in was Tennessee +2 yesterday because I knew where that was going. The benefit is to wait to the last possible minute to wagers on Plays in order to get a feel for the strength of the play.
Last weeks winners:
Rice
New Mex St
Arizona
Indiana
Wake
UNC
Texas Tech
Northwestern
LSU-rare favorite
Last weeks loser:
Penn State
Last weeks push:
Georgia Tech-rare favorite especially on road.
Of course I'm not applying last weeks results to anything since they weren't posted and I could be bullshitting all of you for all you know. I have been working hard on this for years now and I want to put it to the test. I hate to call it a system because everyone claims to have a system. In 4 years I have had great weeks and so-so weeks but never a bad week. A lot depends on how many dogs are on the board. This week looks to be slim pickens and could actually find some favorites as value plays but I doubt that. Once again, this is a program I have come up with that looks to find Lines that are out of whack, but mostly it's a program that seeks out the favorites that are overvalued. And lastly, we all know that all the number crunching in the world can have no impact on what takes place on the FB field. That's why they play. I just try to put my investments in the best situation for profit.
More to come as I work out all the numbers.
GL,
Mick
