Miami v NYG

[Its Gravy]

eveyone on Miami already
line moved from NYG -1 to pick
I figure by gametime line is Miami -1.5 o/u should move up to 39.5
looks like 100% on Dolphins

Giants suck post bye week and rush def is mediocre. They have a porous pass defense, but they excel vs teams with pocket passers and last time i checked Fielder isnt McNabb or Vick. If NY can get pressure on him he can be erradic and force throws (turnovers i figure 2 for each team, but will they score pts off of them) either way i see a 20-17 score

 

[MrChristo]

Was kinda hoping the Giants would go off fav's in this one, but doesn't look like they will. (And if they do, something is very wrong!)

Would you believe that since '98, home teams off a BYE who are fav's of 3 points or less are 0-15 UNDER!! (Av. 31.7!)

Doesn't hold up if they are dogs tho, so every chance this 'trend' won't continue.
Definately something to remember.

 

[kenman]

This system is posted by GM
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (31-13-1, 70.5% since '98).

Play on: Miami (if NYG is favored), Indianapolis. and I think this is why everybody is on MIA. If the line keep going down then it won't be a system.

 

[n2boca]

great stat mrcristo. thanks and GL

 

[Its Gravy]

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consensus has at a pick em
139 on Miami 68%
66 on Giants 32%

 

[MrChristo]

One more....

One more....

...since '98:

Home team is only 1-6 SU (Av. loss 13.7!!!) if both teams off a BYE and total <40

That would indicate a play ON Miami.

But with concensus the way it is, will definately be waiting for line movement (or lack of!) to help me out with this one.