Oct 2nd & Oct 4th Calculated Line Plays

[Mick Onofrio]

Thursday and Saturday Plays Listed by date first, then in order of strength. Obviously the Mia/WVU play comes first because it's today not because it's the strongest play.

THURSDAY Oct 2nd
West Virginia at Miami
Miami -26
Calculated Line: Miami -18.53 thru -23.63 (average -21.35)

***55/50*** on West Virginia +26 with line value of 7.47 thru 2.37 points (average value of 4.65 points)

SATURDAY Oct 4th

UL-Lafayette at Oklahoma State
Ok St -37
Calculated Line: Ok St -21.27 thru 25.85 (avg -23.69)

***55/50*** on UL-Laf +37 with line value of 15.73 thru 11.15 points (avg off 13.31)

Fresno State at Colorado State
CSU -6
Calculated Line: Fresno -0.22 thru -4.90 wrong team favored (avg off -2.48)

***55/50*** on Fresno State with line value of 6.22 thru 10.90 points (avg value 8.48 points)

Central Michigan at Bowling Green
BGU -27.5
Calculated Line: BGU -18.15 thru -22.56 (avg -20.36)

***55/50*** on Cent Mich with line value of 9.35 thru 4.94
(anv line value of 7.14)

Tennessee at Auburn
Tennessee +2(locked in with local on day 1)
Calculated Line: Tenn -3.24 thru 12.88 (avg -6.84)

***55/50*** Tennessee with line value of 5.24 thru 14.88 points (avg 8.84 points) would be a larger play but a tricky looking line caused a big variation gap.

UTEP at Southern Methodist
SMU -10.5
Calculated line: SMU -3.43 thru -7.26 (avg -5.02)

***55/50*** on UTEP with line value of 7.07 thru 3.34 (avg value 5.48 points)

Arizona at Washington State
WSU -27.5/-29
Calculated Line: WSU -17.48 thru -22.23 (avg -19.74)

***55/50*** Play on Arizona with line value of 10.22/11.52 thru 5.27/6.77 (avg value of 7.76/9.26)

Summary of Plays:

Fresno State +6 locked in
UL-Lafayette +37
Central Michigan +27.5 hopefully 28
Tennessee +2 locked in
UTEP +10.5 hopefully 11
West Virginia +26 locked in
Arizona +27.5 hopefully 28+

All plays risking $55 to earn $50 as this is only the 2nd week that I am using my calculated lines versus actual lines to find line value. As I build "equity" with my "accountant" my plays will be broken down by percentage of bankroll/account. After week one I am playing with $210 of the accountant's money.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

based on the numbers

based on the numbers

WVU is about a 6.5 out of 10 as far a strength of play goes if I had to put a number on it. Whereas UL-Laf or Fres would be 8.5/10...always have to factor in some marging for error.

 

[crimson]

like these too.
gl2u

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Friday Night

Friday Night

Oregon at Utah
Oregon -3
Calculated Line: Ore -2.03 thru -6.07
NO PLAY-No line value. Oregon a fair favorite thru -6.07

Line Changes for previous plays:
Central Mich from +27.5 to +28

Note:
BYU +1.5 a potential play
BYU at SDSU
BYU +1.5
Calcualted Line: BYU -0.22 thru -4.13 (avg. -2.45)
Line Value at 1.72 to 5.63 (avg. approx. 3.45)
Wasn't considered a play when BYU was favored. Opened at BYU -1 will watch further line movement.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

avg calculated line for Oregon

avg calculated line for Oregon

Oregon -4.31 (avg) still a NO PLAY

 

[Antonio]

Mike if you have the numbers handy, if not no problem.

I have 3 angle plays this weekend which are now 14-7-1 on the year. Was wondering what your numbers are on:

Miss +13
Ore St. -1
Sd St. pk at 2? now but got on it early.

thanks

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Ole Miss/Fla

Ole Miss/Fla

Ole Miss at Florida
Actual Line: Florida -13
Calculated Line Range: Florida -11.83 thru -16.24 (avg Fla -14.15)
So this would be a NO PLAY for me because the line range favors the Gators. The only favorable factor for Ole Miss here is their sched is slightly more difficutl. I'll get you the other two.

Oregon ST at CAL
Actual Line: Cal +1.5
Calculated Line Range: Cal -1.42 thru Ore St -3.01 (avg Ore St -0.80) Again will be a no play for me because of line variation. Whenever either team comes up as a potential favorite it's a no play, however the numbers seem to favor Oregon St slightly. Exception is Cal's big advantage in strength of schedule.


BYU at SDSU
BYU +1.5
Calcualted Line: BYU -0.22 thru -4.13 (avg. -2.45)
Line Value at 1.72 to 5.63 (avg. approx. 3.45)
Wasn't considered a play when BYU was favored. Opened at BYU -1 will watch further line movement. This is interesting...most likely a no play for me but with BYU becoming the DOG after opening the FAV, the Cougars are favored as the play here as there is line value with BYU + points...GOOD LUCK!!

Hope this helped here

 

[Mick Onofrio]

WVU +26 Win

WVU +26 Win

Opened Calculated Line versus Actual Line plays with a winner.

1-0 +50 with 6 more games on the card.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Updates/Line Changes/Value Changes

Updates/Line Changes/Value Changes

Since most call 1 Unit $100 I will follow this system with my posts for now as I establish an account that allows me to break my plays down into percentages of bankroll. All plays are 55/50 (.50 units for the first 4 weeks of my Calculated Line Plays. This is a big part of my money management philosophy. This is WEEK 2 of Calculated Lines versus Actual Lines.

Calculated Line versus Actual Lines for the week of 10-2-03

WVU +26 WIN (+.50 units)

Central Mich +28.5 Pending (.50 units) gained 1 point in value as line was rasied from 27.5 to 28.5

Fresno State +5 Pending (.50 units) lost 1 points in value as line dropped to 5 from 6. Still, calculations are showing across the board that Fresno State should be favored here from -0.22 points thru -4.90 points and favored an average of 2.48 points.

UL-Lafayette +36 Pending (.50 units) lost 1 point in line value as the number fell from 37 to 36 today. OSU is still heavily overvalued as my Calculated Line Range is Ok state -21.76 thru -25.85, should be an average Fav of -23.69. Still outstanding value on UL-Lafayette.

UTEP +9 is becoming dangerously close to being a NO PLAY. At SMU -10.5 there was solid line value, now at SMU -9, losing 1.5 points in line value can be a significant drop. I will have to watch this line and will only wager if the number gets back to 10.

Tennessee +2 Pending (.50 units) no changes for me because I locked in at +2 on Monday Morning. Probably the best Line Value on my card with my numbers showing Tennessee as a favorite across the board at Tenn -3.24 thru Tenn -12.88 favored an avg of Tenn -6.84. Line value is 5.24 thru 14.88 points avg of 8.84 points. The high end number of 12.88 is less of a factor to me. I'm looking at the average and the low range of 3.54 as more deciding factors. This would put Tennessee as 3-7 point winners on the field which seems more realistic.

Arizona +28.5 pending (.50 units) gained 1 point in value with the line leaping up 1 point from 27.5 to 28.5...I will wait a little cause I think I can get 29 thur 29.5 here. At these numbers I will have line value of around 6.77 thru 11.52 points and average of 9.26

ALSO:
BYU is even one more step closer to being a play now that they are 2 points underdogs, numbers have BYU as an across the board favorite at BYU -0.22 thru -4.13 avg BYU -2.45 Now have some line value of 2.22 points thru 6.14 points and an average of 4.45 points. Big edge to BYU in strength of schedule rating (10.89 points) I will have to consider this one.

ALSO NOTE: Line Value = the amounts of points that my program finds the actual line to be off by.

Good Luck to all of you this weekend.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

One to watch...

One to watch...

Clemson at Maryland
Maryland -8.5
Calculated Line: Maryland -3.63 thru Clemson -2.51 with an average calc. line of Maryland -1.41

Normally when both teams come up as potential favorites it's a NO PLAY but even with Maryland being the -3.63 and avg. -1.41 this line has been seriously inflated. Not playing this one yet but the line value for Clemson is approx 5-11 points and avg. 7 points. This could be a big number for a conference matchup.

 

[jbbg]

record to date

record to date

how did your plays do in the first week you used this system?

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Here you go...

Here you go...

Week One record 9-1-1 (not posted, the only one with documentation is my bookie) Since it will take too much time to post all the calculated line ranges I'll type in the Calculated Line Averages(CLA)

Winners:
Northwestern+22 CLA: OSU -14.59
Wake Forest +7 CLA: Wake -2.15
Indiana +34 CLA: Mich -23.45
LSU -13 CLA: LSU -16.93 (only fav to win)
Texas Tech +3 CLA: Tech -3.61
UNC +18 CLA: NCST -9.65
Arizona +14.5 CLA: TCU -5.51
Rice +22 CLA: Hawaii -10.17
New Mexico State +11.5 CLA: New Mexico -2.38

Losers:
Penn State +3 CLASU-2.62

PUSH/TIE
Georgia Tech -7 CLA: G.Tech -11.91

These mean nothing because I didn't post them here, but if you really want all the line ranges I will try to find time to post them. As far as I'm concerned the Calculated Line Plays are 1-0 +.50 units right now with WVU covering last night. But you asked and I abliged. Hope this helps.

 

[jbbg]

what i meant was, did you use the same system last week to pick your plays as the system you are using this week?

also, where do you get your numbers and predicted scores and what not?

 

[Mick Onofrio]

yes

yes

I used the same "system" as last week. Everyone seems to have a system so I'll call it calculations. I can't use these numbers until all teams have played at least 3-4 games for the stats to be true. Otherwise you find yourself trying to predict future results based on last year's numbers. The numbers themselves are numbers I have been working on for 3+ years now. This being the 4th year. Outside numbers are factored in only by percentages. The 3 outside rankings that get factored in are ELO-CHESS + Its strength of schedule rankings and another predictor method that is an exact opposite of ELO. These three, actually two, because the strength of sched. doesn't get factored in at all-it's only used to get an idea about how true a team's record is and if that record should be accountable, are on used on a percentage basis. Once again, I have no magic bullet and this is non-traditional handicapping. All I seek to do is find Lines that overvalue teams and play against those teams. What takes place on the field is out of my hands. Plays so far include:

West Virginia +26 (settled, win)
Tenn +2
Fresno State +5
Arizona +28.5
Central Mich +28.5
University of Louisiana-Lafayette +36

Possibly BYU +2 and UTEP +9 only if they move up

My calculations have found these lines to be overvaluing the other teams therefore my plays are listed above...good luck.