bears + i want to take them, but...

[vanbasten]

do i have the ballz???

chicago is 10-1 ats vs afc west last 11
chicago is 6-1 ats in non conference games
chicago is 6-2 ats as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

chicago is 11-0 ats at home vs afc

thoughts???

 

[Skanoochies]

Vanbasten, isn`t there an old saying (sayings are probably worse than trends) "Never bet your money on a bad team."

IMO Chicago is a BAD team. Oakland is no hell at the moment either, but have a lot of players with talent and could wake up soon.

Chicago is a BAD team.

Good luck on Sunday.

Skanoochies. :nono:

 

[GM]

I know what you mean. I wanted to bet Chicago too. But then I remember....oh ya....these guys SUCK REALLY BAD!

I don't put a whole lot of stock in team-specific trends, personally. Parts of those stats were accumulated by that 13-3 team of a couple years back. This team really doesn't resemble that one at all, and I don't see much reason to believe they will perform like that team did. To me it's like comparing apples to lemons.

I remember a few years ago when I briefly dabbled in NBA betting. Guys were using Chicago Bulls team trends the season after Jordan retired and everyone else bolted the team. The trends fell apart, naturally. Just not the same thing.

Lots of games to pick from, I think I will stay far away from this one.

Good luck.

 

[ELVIS]

how do trends from years past have anything to do with current rosters which are probably turned over 10 times ?

 

[Vegas Dave]

Oakland isn't very good, but Chicago is easily the worst team in the league.

Green Bay and Minnesota have toyed with them the past few weeks. If either of those teams actually showed up in the second half, the the score would have been uglier than the Colts - Saints game.

It's bad enough Chicago has no running game, an awful QB and a detoriorated offense line, but on top of that they have probably the worst offensive coordinator in the league. All of the receiver routes are short of the first down markers, they calls bootlegs for Kordell on 3 and long, and they run ridiculous play fakes that don't fool anybody.

Unless the game is fixed, then there is no way that Chicago wins.

 

[MrChristo]

ELVIS....

ELVIS....

...team trends do tend to be over-rated/over-used. As you say players and coaching staff have been turned over numerous times.

But, I'm a big believer in League trends. To me they show situations where the line-makers over/under react to certain results.

Got a couple for this game that show me that Chicago (or who-ever is in this spot historically) has a 66-75% chance of covering this week!

Certainly enough to scare me off taking Oakland....Still not sure if I'll take the Bears.
(But given nearly 80% of 'public' seem to be on Oak, I think I'll let line movement dictate whether I play this one or not )

Let me know if you're gunna pull the trigger, vanbasten....Maybe the 2 of us can take on the world! (Or go down trying )

 

[Statman02]

here are a few since the 1999 season:

any home dog off a home pointspread loss....30/16/2 .652

any non-con home dog off an over.....17/7/3 .708

any non-con away fav off a home over....5/14/1 .263

any non-con home dog off a loss....30/17/2 .653

any non-con home team off a home loss....16/5/2 .761

any non-con away fav off home ats loss + over....1/8 .111

any non-con home team off home SU & ATS loss.....11/3/2 .785

these all apply to either Chi or Oak this week however Chi really is a pig currently dead last in the RPI rankings.....dont know if I can do it either......I'll make up my mind tomorrow when I call em in