A question for everyone on last nights Ore/Utah game re:consensus plays

[acehistr8]

Last night about an hour before gametime I decided to look at this game, but I was stumped. I found a lot of reasons to love Oregon, but also a few reasons I could be talked into liking Utah. Too close to call, not one team blew me away. Using a spreadsheet I put together a couple years ago, it looked like a one or two point high scoring game to me. But one or two points, I mean this was "Oregon" right? They should kill a team like "Utah" When I looked at the Consensus pick on bestbettor, I was blown away. 18 people on Oregon, ONE on utah. ONE? To me that stunk right there. Now if you have a 70-30 split on a game thats one thing, but over 90% on on side, holy cow. So I made a small play on Utah and went to sleep.

Does anyone ever look at something like that and say "Holy crap I dont care who the teams are but something stinks here!" Last night was definitely one of those games.

 

[Bombs]

90% of the games I play, I play for the reasons you listed above. The public consensus loses in the long run. The best spots I have found are a large conference vs. small conference with a tight line, where all the Joe P's are like "damn, this is the Ducks, dude, they will score and score on this team." Apart from being profitable, it is the most amusing way to wager, as you sometimes even amaze yourself. Good luck!

 

[Kdogg21]

I liked oregon yesterday, but when I see so many people on it, that scares me. If oregon was that good, the line should of been about 7. Obviously it was 3 for a reason and the Ducks aren't as great as everybody thought it was. So i ended up taking the under and it worked out well, but I would say 3 out of 4 times, when the consensus is like above 80%, I stay away or take the opposite. Kind of like Baseball yesterday. Everybody was on the Giants, including myself than look what happens :shrug:

 

[Unicorn]

I watched the entire game and Utah definitely was the most deserving team. Oregon's pass D is truly terrible and Utah also ran on Oregon's "vaunted" run D. That said, a lot of people had this game capped wrong, including myself, as it was pretty obvious that Utah had the better team.

I didn't check the consensus, like I normally do, and I should of because that would of least tempered down my bet. I'm not sure what the opposite consensus pick percentage would be, but when it gets around 85-90% on one team, it's a very good idea to go the other way. In fact, some contrarians would make it a large play.

The final point I'll make is that other posts reflect most services had Oregon. That definitely sends up a red flag. The last time this year, I saw so many service on one game, was Arizona St. against Iowa, another domination by the un-consensus team.

I'm not sure I would have said "holy crap, I'm playing Utah" because I did cap Oregon to cover, however I still would have lowered my bet because I think consensus is valid info (I just didn't have time to look last night...and it cost me)....


Good luck

 

[Penguinfan]

I just check what you and Petey have in your contest plays and run like hell the other way!!



All in good fun.

Penguinfan

 

[buddy]

Ace,

Consider this...

Imo, the public perception was Oregon would recover after a humiliating performance at home vs Wash State.

But, ......

Utah had played four games.

3-1 SU / 4-0 ATS

In game 1, they covered the closing line by +2.

In game 2, they covered the closing line by +7

In game 3, they covered the closing line by +8

Then a bye week.

In game 4, they covered the closing line by +12.

4-0 ATS is one thing. But in some cases, the ATS margins can tell a story all their own.

+2 / +7 / +8 / bye / +12 tells me a whole lot about UTAH.

"If" UTAH's ATS margins would have been reversed i.e,

+12 / bye / +8 / +7 / +2...I would have played Oregon.