Hey Coach Woody - i would be happy to help you in any way possible if you ever want to get back in the game...I have been capping for 5 years now and have never had a losing year - and I believe it is not because I am lucky or anything - but good capping takes hard work & dedication & i am very passionate about succeeding at sports betting...and I enjoy having the extra income to spend on things I have always wanted to buy...when capping I look at all the angles, and spend several hours a week capping the games...
I know you said that "I seem to have a good idea of who is a good team and who is not but I guess i am not looking at the right info"...this could be true - what i mean by that is a lot of people view capping the games as trying to find the best team to win the game...for example last weekend i am sure a lot of people looked at the Steelers -7 and said "wow - the steelers should easily beat the browns by 7" - and they just go with that...everyone in the sportsbook i was at was on the steelers...obviously from the publics perception the steelers at home should be the better team so they should win...but when dealing w/ the spread the real question you should be asking is "what is the team that is going to cover the point spread - what side gives me the best potential to win"...if one starts looking at the steelers & the browns they should know that those 2 teams have played some very close 3 pt. games over the past couple of years...i guess what i am saying is a lot of people ask themselves who is a good team & then just bet on good teams...well as you probably know - sometimes the good teams just aren't good bets - sometimes the bad teams are the best bets if they play close & cover...you should ask yourself "can the team i view as the worse team play close enough to win the game or cover the spread"
And i look at all the factors, i look at matchups w/ WRs vs. the defensive backs...i look at strength of offensive line & will the team be able to run the ball against the defense...i look at team speed...special teams factors...any little side not that could give me an edge...i look at history of the 2 teams playing each other - ATS records, any recent trends, I pay attention to injuries & teams coming off a bye & look at if a team is in a 2nd road game or 2nd home game - and travel schedules...all these little things factor into what i decide to play
I try to cap the games & set what i believe should be the "true line" for the game...and the biggest thing i try to understand - which i believe is the most important factor is the psychology of the game...Vegas sets lines for a reason - usually to suck money in from a certain side...I try to "get inside the heads of the oddsmaker" and see where the side lies that they back...and i try to see if Vegas is setting a trap to suck money into one side...i pay lots of attention to what the public is playing...where the money seems to be going...
I can go on and on - but as you can see i try to consider every possible factor...and I like to play dogs most of the time - because the majority of the time I find the value in the dogs...w/ a favorite - mostly the public is on those - and not only does the team have to win - but has to cover the spread...i believe this is what separates the good cappers from the not so good cappers - the good cappers find that team that is an underdog by 7 pts. and can see that the underdog not allow the favorite to cover the spread...
If you play just who you feel are good teams - you will lose in the long run - plain and simple...you need to cap the games good & see how the Bengals are going to cover the game...two weeks ago i made a play on the Bengals as my projected line showed the Bengals should have been favored over the Browns...needless to say they won the game outright...and i had them at +4.5 point dogs...joe public looked at the game & said "Browns -3, that bengals team sucks - this will be an easy game for the Browns to win"...
I notice you said you play poker - well besided sports betting - poker is the other way i make a lot of money...I have been playing poker for years & am very disciplined & a good solid player - I just got back from Vegas & love when i step in the poker room & the regulars think I am just a vacationer looking to try the game of poker - well they don't laugh when i leave w/ their money - I guess my advice is if you are going to be a serious handicapper - you need to be dedicated to it week in & week out & spend the time doing the research & pay attention to all the details...just as you must pay attention to determining what others are holding in poker, and what you should do in every situation w/ your hand, whether to call, bet, raise, fold, check-raise, or whatever - you should analyze every move you make when placing a sports wager...I have used my poker discipline to give me an edge in sports betting...i try to figure out what Vegas is holding - as to what side they are leaning on - and what side they are bluffing on...
One other thing - i don't believe handicapping is finished the second you place your wager - i belive you should continue to look at all your plays when the games are done - ask yourself - what did i analyze correctly - what didn't i analyze correctly - why did i win/lose the game...how will the result of this game affect how the public views these teams - how will the result affect next weeks lines (this is big - week to week public perception is heavily weighted on how a team recently performed - example Buffalo first 2 games - and look at their last 2 games - now they are -3 this week at NY Jets - believe they would have been -6 at NY Jets had the game been after week 2 - public now having more doubts about the Buffalo team)...so you should go over & take notes on the game - it helps me usually the following week. Just as you should use information from your losses in poker, you should use information learned from your losses in sports betting to beat the game...i will sometimes lose a hand in poker - just to suck someone in when i have a great hand...losing can be used to your advantage sometimes...sometimes you have to pay for the info that helps you in the future - like calling what you think might be a bluff in poker - sometimes i call Vegas' bluff on a line & i am wrong - no big deal - just another learning experience...
If you ever need any help my friend, don't hesitate to contact me...I am here to help you in any way possible - i want you to succeed...just remember nobody wins every play - and it takes dedication to consistently win at sports betting - not luck...
Well Coach Woody - let me know if you need any thing else - sorry for the really long post - but i think i made some great points - geez - i should write a sports betting column!
Take care & hope to see you posting some winners real soon!
--SHOWRUNNER
