The systems ended last week going 10-7.
The breakdown:
System #4: 1-1
System #5: 0-1
System #7: 1-0
System #8: 2-0
System #10: 1-0
System #16: 1-0
System #18: 3-3
System #21: 0-1
System #22: 1-0
System #23: 0-1
That's a lot of plays! I don't play them all, but I use it as just one more thing to keep in mind when handicapping.
This week we have a bunch more. We've also got a number of potential plays which are only in effect if the right line and/or total occurs. Also, this is the third straight week where none of the systems go against each other. Unreal.
Two teams come out overwhelmingly strong on these systems this week - Dallas and the NY Jets. Please, don't anyone go crazy on these just because each of these teams appears in multiple systems. I still refuse to bet more than 1 unit on any team 98% of the time. When I do break that rule I might go 1.5 or 2 units, that's it. There are no sure things!!
Ok, here are the systems which are in effect this week...
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: Green Bay (if they are the dog), Dallas (if they are the dog)
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis, Green Bay, Dallas
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Cleveland (if line stays at -3 or less)
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (39-21-1, 65% since '98). **updated**
Play on: Atlanta
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).
Play on: Washington, Jacksonville, NY Jets (in all cases line must stay at +3, and total must be 37 or less, or no play)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (23-3, 88.5% since start of '02, including 13-2, 86.7% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Dallas (if dog), NY Jets
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 50-77-5, 60.6% Unders --- O/U 24-41-3, 63.1% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on: Oak/Clev, Miami/Jax
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (37-21-1, 63.8% since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Atl
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (72-42 ATS since '92). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #22 - Play on a home underdog that is winless for the season (minimum 3 losses). (41-21 ATS, 66.1%). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (11-1 ATS since '02) (same as rule #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Dallas (if Philly is favored), NY Jets
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (38-19, 66.7% since '92).
Play on: NY Jets
...That last one (#33) I really don't understand why this system would work. I don't know, I didn't discover it...
It's probably the strangest system I have in my records.
Good luck everyone!
.
.
.
.
(Just a note on the records - If it says **updated**, the record includes every game up to present. If it doesn't say that, then there may be games missing from the record for last year and early this season. In some cases a little data went missing, and it's difficult to go back and track it. The database I use can only search for certain parameters. For example, I can easily search to see if a team won after winning/losing/being at home/being a favorite/playing on a Monday/having a total under 37, etc. But the database is not programmed to do searches on records based on how many consecutive wins or losses a team had. Anyways, that explains the discrepancies.)
The breakdown:
System #4: 1-1
System #5: 0-1
System #7: 1-0
System #8: 2-0
System #10: 1-0
System #16: 1-0
System #18: 3-3
System #21: 0-1
System #22: 1-0
System #23: 0-1
That's a lot of plays! I don't play them all, but I use it as just one more thing to keep in mind when handicapping.
This week we have a bunch more. We've also got a number of potential plays which are only in effect if the right line and/or total occurs. Also, this is the third straight week where none of the systems go against each other. Unreal.
Two teams come out overwhelmingly strong on these systems this week - Dallas and the NY Jets. Please, don't anyone go crazy on these just because each of these teams appears in multiple systems. I still refuse to bet more than 1 unit on any team 98% of the time. When I do break that rule I might go 1.5 or 2 units, that's it. There are no sure things!!
Ok, here are the systems which are in effect this week...
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: Green Bay (if they are the dog), Dallas (if they are the dog)
System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis, Green Bay, Dallas
System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).
Play on: Cleveland (if line stays at -3 or less)
System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (39-21-1, 65% since '98). **updated**
Play on: Atlanta
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).
Play on: Washington, Jacksonville, NY Jets (in all cases line must stay at +3, and total must be 37 or less, or no play)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (23-3, 88.5% since start of '02, including 13-2, 86.7% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Dallas (if dog), NY Jets
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 50-77-5, 60.6% Unders --- O/U 24-41-3, 63.1% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on: Oak/Clev, Miami/Jax
System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (37-21-1, 63.8% since '98). **updated**
Play the Under on: StL/Atl
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (72-42 ATS since '92). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #22 - Play on a home underdog that is winless for the season (minimum 3 losses). (41-21 ATS, 66.1%). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (11-1 ATS since '02) (same as rule #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Dallas (if Philly is favored), NY Jets
System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (38-19, 66.7% since '92).
Play on: NY Jets
...That last one (#33) I really don't understand why this system would work. I don't know, I didn't discover it...
It's probably the strangest system I have in my records.Good luck everyone!
.
.
.
.
(Just a note on the records - If it says **updated**, the record includes every game up to present. If it doesn't say that, then there may be games missing from the record for last year and early this season. In some cases a little data went missing, and it's difficult to go back and track it. The database I use can only search for certain parameters. For example, I can easily search to see if a team won after winning/losing/being at home/being a favorite/playing on a Monday/having a total under 37, etc. But the database is not programmed to do searches on records based on how many consecutive wins or losses a team had. Anyways, that explains the discrepancies.)
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