an early lean to

gardenweasel

el guapo
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Jan 10, 2002
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"the bunker"
coming off a ridiculous 3-5 week that saw me snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in the tampa,chiefs(thanks priest)and oakland games.....and a total second half collapse by atlanta....real tough losses....the skins win was satisfying and kept me from a potential serial killing spree....

1)the giants+3....this is the typical bounce back game for the new yorkers....have been struggling a bit at home and playing fairly well away.....some of the giant players were miffed that the stadium was emptying out fairly early in a reasonably close ball game last week....not sure that new england has the defensive front to exploit the giant offensive line.....

right now,new england doesn`t pose the same problems as miami.....

just like the way this sets up for the gi`nts.....

2)eagles+2(buy half).....just flat out taking the eagles on the road....something about mcnabb on the road(except before a bye)...they are showing signs of waking up...the running game is clicking.....is dallas gonna run away and hide from the rest of the division?....i don`t think so.....they are talented....but i believe q carter comes back down to earth...

i`m gonna tease and maybe parlay these two.....

3)jaguars+4....i`ll buy the full point if i have to....perfect spot....miami coming off a huge road win vs the g`nts....fred taylor beginning to come around....jimmy smith back with a bang....those huge tackles for the jags (haynesworth and henderson) controling williams....jags have a bye week coming up and i have to think this game means much more to them(in-state rivalry and all).....and maybe most importantly,why is this line -3?......doesn`t make any sense to me.....consensus sites showing miami as the strongest consensus percentage on the board this week......i think the jags will finish quite strongly this year....i like the set-up here...


4)seattle-3(bought half) and over 45....seattle has some crazy stat/angle about covering the game after not covering and losing by more than 10.....they walked into a buzzsaw last week in the resurgent packers....looking for a big bounceback vs a still soft,under achieving `9er team....the 49`ers lack something...chemistry?....i don`t know.....until they show something,i`ll take the new improved seahags.....looks like ships passing in the night,heading in opposite directions,division-wise....3`s a bargain,imo.....san fran still has name recognition and garcia and t.o........that gets us the favorable line....i`ll take shawn alexander,hasellbeck.daryl jackson and koren robinson to atone for the poor packer showing and last years infamous "sharpie" stunt by terrell owens....san fran`s rushing defense stats are a little misleading and their pass defense is poor without jason webster....seattle gets huge offensive lineman chris terry back to go along with "also huge" walter jones....leans....not strong.....seattle really doesn`t have a quality win...


leans....of course,i want to jump all over the bucs-3......they have to be in a very foul mood....or do they just tank?......i don`t think so...but this appears to shape up as a very public bounce-back play.....why isn`t this line moving?....consensus boards are showing a heavy lean to tampa....a little scary.....still,gonna play `em very small

also considering pittsburgh+7..with this pass defense vs the denver offense,it looks very easy......that`s why this game is showing over a 70% consensus on denver....a great spot for a pitt bounce back...there is talent on this club,regardless of the recent results....potential for jake and portis to be at less than 100%....

oakland +4(buy a full point)....just hate cleveland as a home favorite....especially off a huge win in which they scored at will.....i know the raiders are bad....just another good situation....

carolina +4....colts in a letdown situation after scoring at will in big tampa win...love to play against clubs that put up huge points the week before and won....



a definite on the gi`nts..a definite on the eagles..a definite on the jags and i`m getting 4 any way i can...also playing the seahags and the over

leans..... the bucs minus the trey lightly....the steelers plus 7....oakland +4..carolina +4.....jets +3....all small

g.l.
 
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GM

PleasureGlutton
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Jan 21, 2000
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Hey weasel,

Every Washington game this year has been decided by 3 pts or less. That might have something to do with the lack of movement. Books reluctant to let you have more than a FG with them? Good question - does TB bounce back or fold? They really don't strike me as folders. But something doesn't look right in this position, and if they don't fold I could see this team at least questioning themselves just a bit. Anger's one thing, but self-doubt quite another. I'll tell you this...I wouldn't want to be laying more than a FG on the road here. Not sure this is the greatest spot for the Bucs.

========================================

Pitt's played two seriously ugly games lately. If they're going to lose by 17 and 20 pts in B2B home games, I am not surprised they aren't getting public support. I don't know how accurate consensus reports are this early in the week, but that still sounds about right. (What I mean is, your true Joe Average Guy I don't think will even think about Sunday's games til Saturday...and thus wouldn't be the type to enter his picks this early in a consensus board).

Pitt's got to be able to pass to succeed (I think), and Denver's got the best pass D in the league. Maddox has been very mistake-prone, and will get eaten alive here if he keeps making the bad throws. That puts a lot of pressure on Zeroue and the Bus to get it done. That I don't like.

The line actually DROPPED at Olympic though (opened at 7, dropped to 6?-15). So, Denver favored by the public + Pitt forced to do what they don't want to do (run the ball) + Olympic enticing you to bet on Denver.....things that make ya go hmmmmm. I do NOT like to bet on the side Oly's asking for action on. Too sharp to go against in situations like this. Emotionally...does Denver rebound after that heartbreaking loss @ KC last week, or do they come out flat after such a big game? Does Pitt finally get their wakeup call, or do they just flat out suck? Interesting game to pick apart.

========================================

NE has me stumped at the moment. I've been wrong on almost every game they've played this year, so I am leaving that one alone for the time being. I also have my problems getting a read on NYG.

Cheers.
 
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gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,575
226
63
"the bunker"
alstott out for the year...

alstott out for the year...

added onto brian kelly,jurevicius and now keyshawn johnson.....tampa is very injured and coming off the short week.....very,very small play....the injuries are considered and their enormous confidence has to be shaken... ...
 
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