ytd..........18-11 (+13.4 units)
2 unit...... 7-1 (+12.3 units)
1 unit...... 11-10 (+1.1 units)
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4 unit....(ncaa goy) ohio state (-2) (vipsports) over wisconsin
2 unit....arizona state/oregon over 55.5
1 unit....syracuse (+18.5) over virginia tech
1 unit....iowa state (+15.5) over texas tech
(adding 1/2 unit on iowa state, this time at +18)
1 unit....marshall (-20.5) over kent state
(friday night add-on...1 unit...2h michigan (-2.5) over minnesota.
really had no interest in this game from the start, but i think theres value with michigan in the 2h. they came out with no emotion, but this game could be A LOT worse. wolverines only down 14-0. i think this game will still finish close. hopin carr's boys dont burn me. i honestly expected this 2h line to be -4 or -4.5. i gotta bite at this price, sucker play or not.
(saturday add-on...1 unit....central florida moneyline (+118) over ohio university. i gotta try this one, even though ive got enough exposure this saturday. only negative about ucf is theyre a little shaky against the run, but bobcats cant stop a good passing attack and i really think this will be a textbook example of a team that lets a tough loss linger too long. bobcats almost had the huge upset last week in northern illinois as 20+ point dogs. but they let it slip away. this team is already a little fragile to begin with. i think the knights get this game from an uninspired bobcat squad. we'll see. gl)
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ohio state.....where to begin?...its no secret im as anti-buckeye as anyone youll ever see....never been an ohio stae fan and have made solid money going againts the bucks the last year and a half...so why is my strongest play of the year on them?....because this is a spot where im confident they simply will not lose.... and i say that for a few reasons.... first, this series has been an amazingly visitor-dominated series. in the last half-decade, the visiting team has won EVERY game straight up in this series... strange but true.... so id expect the buckeyes upperclassmen to be confident here, knowing theyve already won in madison twice in their career... the one factor i cant ignore is tressel off a bye week... hes the one part of the program i respect.. the guy is an excellent coach and i cant see him having his guys anything but extremely prepared... krenzel is back and ready to go.... statisically, somethings got to give....wisky comes in with the #9 rushing game in the nation...bucks counter that with the #1 run defense in the nation... its gonna be a real physical game... so all in all, when i look for a strong play, or a game of year type play, i basically require a few things of the team im backing...one is that they be a GOOD team... meaning as much i like big dogs, if a team has defensive holes and cant stop anyone, or is just not a good program, then i wont entrust my money with them as a strong play.... second, they gotta be playin for something... and third, the line value has to be fair.... i think all apply in this spot... im backing a good team who is playing to extend the nations longest winning streak... and the line, because of ohio states propensity to play close game, is nice and low... it can be argued that "there are easier games on the board". maybe. im NOT expecting a blowout. and not expecting a blowout on a goy may sound paradoxical in a sense. but as long as the bucks extend their winning streak, this ticket should cash. theyre basically in a win-and-cover kind of spot. very similar to my ncaa goy last year (florida over georgia). the line was essentially a pick 'em and i expected a good game, but i was confident that florida would not lose. by no means am i de-valuing the line of (-2) but im extremely confident the bucks will win this game. and i still think theyll slip up down the road this season and lose a game or two straight up. but i DONT think it comes here, especially given ohio states success in madison recently. if i go down, im takin ohio state's long winning streak with me. but i dont see it happening. woudnt surprise me to see wisconsin become a "chic" play as the week progresses and gametime nears, especially with it being a nationally televised, primetime game. im sure many will make a case for a nationally ranked home dog, but i just dont see osu stumbling yet, especially in a place a lot of these guys have already won twice in.
the streak will end soon for tressel's guys- but not this week.
==============================================
other thoughts (cliffs-notes version, sorry):
==============================================
arizona state/oregon over 55.5....clearly got a good line by grabbing it right away on monday...number jumped to 57, then 58.5, and now the current 59.5...and i still think it'll go over with no problem, although im glad i got a lot of line value by placing it early...just think this is a game where both teams finally get their offenses untracked after weeks of struggle. oregon clearly not the same team after beating michigan. youd think that win would have provided a springboard to a great season. instead, theyve gone in the sh1tter. asu has played some very tough defenses the last month- i think the porous oregon secondary will be a welcome sight to the sun devil pass game. basically think this will be an old-school pac-10 game, especially with both offenses being held in check the last few weeks.
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syracuse.....as jeff pointed out below, not gonna be particularly easy for te cuse in blacksburg, but this is a confident syracuse team. theyve kinda done it under the radar this year. that offense has really been productive. certainly a big test for them vs a stingy tech defense. as long as the orangemen are error-free in the kicking game, i think they have the abiity to hang within the number, especially with the way theyre running the ball this season. tech special teams always a huge wild card in favor of the hokies though. cuse needs to be sharp. i think they can do it
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iowa state....definitely an a$$-backward sort of play. but i think theres an overlay here. tech coming off a blowout win, isu coming off a blowout loss. i think isu can move the ball on that raider defense. symons has been unreal the last few weeks- no denying that. but i cant ignore the fact that tech is allowing way too many yards and big plays to justify that price again this week. a+m moved the ball at will most of the game but made some critical mistakes before the game got out of hand. tech's offensive numbers are impressive- but its only a matter of time before that lame defense catches up with them. this texas tech defense let up 489 yards last week and 578 2 weeks ago. its very rare that youll see a team let up 1,000 yards in two weeks, and still come out of it 2-0. i know that their game-tempo naturally allows for more yards as a result, but its very apparent that the tech defense sucks, and will ultimately hold that team back from contending in the big 12. cyclones no prize, but they can chunk yards away and hang the number. cant understand the rush to lay more than 2 TDs with a tech team that, while they DO score a lot, cant legitimately stop anyone if the game is close.
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marshall....this is more of a past history kind of thing. kent state just hasnt been able to hang with the herd at all in recent years. even when kent state showed signs of promise, they just proved to be a notch below the herd in terms of class. bottom line is the flashes just arent competitive away from dix stadium. and it aint like thats because they have a great home field advantage or something, because they draw some of the worst crowds in division-1 football. but the flashes are just letting up obscene amounts of points on the road. marshall has had a week off to recover from the upset loss to troy state. herd can name the score here if they want to. i think they will
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2 unit...... 7-1 (+12.3 units)
1 unit...... 11-10 (+1.1 units)
=============================================
4 unit....(ncaa goy) ohio state (-2) (vipsports) over wisconsin
2 unit....arizona state/oregon over 55.5
1 unit....syracuse (+18.5) over virginia tech
1 unit....iowa state (+15.5) over texas tech
(adding 1/2 unit on iowa state, this time at +18)
1 unit....marshall (-20.5) over kent state
(friday night add-on...1 unit...2h michigan (-2.5) over minnesota.
really had no interest in this game from the start, but i think theres value with michigan in the 2h. they came out with no emotion, but this game could be A LOT worse. wolverines only down 14-0. i think this game will still finish close. hopin carr's boys dont burn me. i honestly expected this 2h line to be -4 or -4.5. i gotta bite at this price, sucker play or not.
(saturday add-on...1 unit....central florida moneyline (+118) over ohio university. i gotta try this one, even though ive got enough exposure this saturday. only negative about ucf is theyre a little shaky against the run, but bobcats cant stop a good passing attack and i really think this will be a textbook example of a team that lets a tough loss linger too long. bobcats almost had the huge upset last week in northern illinois as 20+ point dogs. but they let it slip away. this team is already a little fragile to begin with. i think the knights get this game from an uninspired bobcat squad. we'll see. gl)
=============================================
ohio state.....where to begin?...its no secret im as anti-buckeye as anyone youll ever see....never been an ohio stae fan and have made solid money going againts the bucks the last year and a half...so why is my strongest play of the year on them?....because this is a spot where im confident they simply will not lose.... and i say that for a few reasons.... first, this series has been an amazingly visitor-dominated series. in the last half-decade, the visiting team has won EVERY game straight up in this series... strange but true.... so id expect the buckeyes upperclassmen to be confident here, knowing theyve already won in madison twice in their career... the one factor i cant ignore is tressel off a bye week... hes the one part of the program i respect.. the guy is an excellent coach and i cant see him having his guys anything but extremely prepared... krenzel is back and ready to go.... statisically, somethings got to give....wisky comes in with the #9 rushing game in the nation...bucks counter that with the #1 run defense in the nation... its gonna be a real physical game... so all in all, when i look for a strong play, or a game of year type play, i basically require a few things of the team im backing...one is that they be a GOOD team... meaning as much i like big dogs, if a team has defensive holes and cant stop anyone, or is just not a good program, then i wont entrust my money with them as a strong play.... second, they gotta be playin for something... and third, the line value has to be fair.... i think all apply in this spot... im backing a good team who is playing to extend the nations longest winning streak... and the line, because of ohio states propensity to play close game, is nice and low... it can be argued that "there are easier games on the board". maybe. im NOT expecting a blowout. and not expecting a blowout on a goy may sound paradoxical in a sense. but as long as the bucks extend their winning streak, this ticket should cash. theyre basically in a win-and-cover kind of spot. very similar to my ncaa goy last year (florida over georgia). the line was essentially a pick 'em and i expected a good game, but i was confident that florida would not lose. by no means am i de-valuing the line of (-2) but im extremely confident the bucks will win this game. and i still think theyll slip up down the road this season and lose a game or two straight up. but i DONT think it comes here, especially given ohio states success in madison recently. if i go down, im takin ohio state's long winning streak with me. but i dont see it happening. woudnt surprise me to see wisconsin become a "chic" play as the week progresses and gametime nears, especially with it being a nationally televised, primetime game. im sure many will make a case for a nationally ranked home dog, but i just dont see osu stumbling yet, especially in a place a lot of these guys have already won twice in.
the streak will end soon for tressel's guys- but not this week.
==============================================
other thoughts (cliffs-notes version, sorry):
==============================================
arizona state/oregon over 55.5....clearly got a good line by grabbing it right away on monday...number jumped to 57, then 58.5, and now the current 59.5...and i still think it'll go over with no problem, although im glad i got a lot of line value by placing it early...just think this is a game where both teams finally get their offenses untracked after weeks of struggle. oregon clearly not the same team after beating michigan. youd think that win would have provided a springboard to a great season. instead, theyve gone in the sh1tter. asu has played some very tough defenses the last month- i think the porous oregon secondary will be a welcome sight to the sun devil pass game. basically think this will be an old-school pac-10 game, especially with both offenses being held in check the last few weeks.
==============================================
syracuse.....as jeff pointed out below, not gonna be particularly easy for te cuse in blacksburg, but this is a confident syracuse team. theyve kinda done it under the radar this year. that offense has really been productive. certainly a big test for them vs a stingy tech defense. as long as the orangemen are error-free in the kicking game, i think they have the abiity to hang within the number, especially with the way theyre running the ball this season. tech special teams always a huge wild card in favor of the hokies though. cuse needs to be sharp. i think they can do it
==============================================
iowa state....definitely an a$$-backward sort of play. but i think theres an overlay here. tech coming off a blowout win, isu coming off a blowout loss. i think isu can move the ball on that raider defense. symons has been unreal the last few weeks- no denying that. but i cant ignore the fact that tech is allowing way too many yards and big plays to justify that price again this week. a+m moved the ball at will most of the game but made some critical mistakes before the game got out of hand. tech's offensive numbers are impressive- but its only a matter of time before that lame defense catches up with them. this texas tech defense let up 489 yards last week and 578 2 weeks ago. its very rare that youll see a team let up 1,000 yards in two weeks, and still come out of it 2-0. i know that their game-tempo naturally allows for more yards as a result, but its very apparent that the tech defense sucks, and will ultimately hold that team back from contending in the big 12. cyclones no prize, but they can chunk yards away and hang the number. cant understand the rush to lay more than 2 TDs with a tech team that, while they DO score a lot, cant legitimately stop anyone if the game is close.
==============================================
marshall....this is more of a past history kind of thing. kent state just hasnt been able to hang with the herd at all in recent years. even when kent state showed signs of promise, they just proved to be a notch below the herd in terms of class. bottom line is the flashes just arent competitive away from dix stadium. and it aint like thats because they have a great home field advantage or something, because they draw some of the worst crowds in division-1 football. but the flashes are just letting up obscene amounts of points on the road. marshall has had a week off to recover from the upset loss to troy state. herd can name the score here if they want to. i think they will
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