If History Repeats itself...

Mick Onofrio

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2 Things will happen...

#1 The Red Sox will not let Pettitte get into a groove like they did in the first 3 meeting against him this year. In the 4th meeting they came out swinging the bats and touched him up for 7 runs in 2+ innings. I see the same approach tonight as I strongly feel Pettitte is a guy that needs to throw strikes early in the count for his off-the-plate stuff to be effective. In the last meeting the Sox jumped on a lot of First Pitches. Like Mussina, Pettitte needs and 0-1, 1-2 count to get hitters to help him. Mussina got into trouble last night because he wasn't getting the calls on the Black of the Plate. Thank you Questec. Andy will have the same trouble. Wheras Derek Lowe is usually in the Strike Zone and relies on downward movement within the strike zone to get ground ball. You'll see a lot of pitches start up and in to lefties/up and away to righties then tail down and away/down and in.

#2 If history repeats itself again, the value is in the Red Sox +1.5 runs (-115) just as it was last night. Lowe was 1-1 at Yankee Stadium and received run support of 5 and 10 runs. Versus the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium Pettitte was 2-1 with run support of 3, 7, and 11. With starts coming against Burkett(win), Bruce Chen(win), and Pedro(lost).
While Lowe beat Wells and lost to Mussina. Lowe is 3-1 versus Yanks just as Pettitte is 3-1. All signs also point to OVER but I'll take runs instead.

The outcome of this game should be known by the 3rd inning tonight just as it was last night. If Lowe is having trouble getting ground balls and keeping the ball down we're in trouble. You know the Yankees can't afford to pull out the stops against Lowe as far cutting the infield grass short, or tamping down the dirt in front of home plate because Pettitte relies on ground ball out just as much as Derek. Should be a good matchup. I wouldn't touch the over cause if both guys are on there will be a lot of quick ground ball outs.

RED SOX +1.5 Runs 57.50 to win 50.00

Wager type : Straight Bet(s)
Select #1 : MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox 10/9/2003 8:05:01 PM - EST
Spread +1? -115 for Game
Derek Lowe must Start
Andy Pettitte must Start
Risking 57.50 To Win 50.00 USD
 

Mick Onofrio

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not sure of record...

not sure of record...

with all the garbage bets I made I know I was down $51 for the night. I will calculate last night's record soon though. I lost all 3 parlays for -75, Lost ML on Marlins, Lost RL Marlins, Won ML Red Sox, won RL Red Sox

2-2 sides
0-3 parlays
-$51.00

+286.50 for playoffs I believe, will have exact calculations later...gotta run some errands.
 

Mick Onofrio

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In Derek Lowe's last 5 starts @ Yankee Stadium he is:

In Derek Lowe's last 5 starts @ Yankee Stadium he is:

2-1 with 2 No Decisions

8/29/2003 10-5 BOS 6 5 5 5 3 1 W
7/27/2003 6-4 BOS 6 9 3 3 3 3 ND
7/4/2003 10-3 BOS 6.33 10 3 3 1 2 W
5/28/2003 6-5 NYY 6 8 4 4 2 3 ND
9/4/2002 3-1 NYY 7 7 3 3 1 3 L


This year he's 2-0 at the Bronx with 2 ND's
 

Mick Onofrio

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this can't be right

this can't be right

USA today says one thing, Mad Jack's Data Base says another, Boston Globe says something else....does anyone know for sure what Lowe's record at Yankee Stadium is this Year???
 

TJBELL

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From CBS Sportsline:

SERIES GAME LOG
Date at Result Winner Loser
May 19 BOS NYY 7-3 Wells Fossum
May 20 BOS BOS 10-7 Embree Contreras
May 21 BOS NYY 4-2 Clemens Wakefield
May 26 NYY BOS 8-4 Wakefield Clemens
May 27 NYY NYY 11-3 Pettitte Chen
May 28 NYY NYY 6-5 Rivera Lyon
Jul 4 NYY BOS 10-3 Lowe Wells
Jul 5 NYY BOS 10-2 Mendoza Clemens
Jul 6 NYY NYY 7-1 Pettitte Burkett
Jul 7 NYY NYY 2-1 Rivera Kim
Jul 25 BOS NYY 4-3 Rivera Kim
Jul 26 BOS BOS 5-4 Kim Benitez
Jul 27 BOS BOS 6-4 Fossum Hammond
Aug 29 BOS BOS 10-5 Lowe Contreras
Aug 30 BOS NYY 10-7 Pettitte Martinez
Aug 31 BOS NYY 8-4 Clemens Wakefield
Sep 5 NYY BOS 9-3 Martinez Pettitte
Sep 6 NYY BOS 11-0 Wakefield Clemens
Sep 7 NYY NYY 3-1 Wells Suppan
Oct 8 NYY BOS 5-2 Wakefield Mussina

:shrug:
 

TJBELL

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Red Sox probable starter
Lowe (17-7, 4.47). Lowe has not pitched well on the road this season, going 6-5 with a 6.11 ERA in 16 starts. He was 11-2 with a 3.21 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway. The veteran right-hander is 2-3 with three saves and a 4.91 ERA in 15 career regular-season appearances, including five starts, at Yankee Stadium. Lowe made three relief appearances against the Yankees in the 1999 ALCS, yielding one earned run and six hits over 6 1/3 innings.
 

Mick Onofrio

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hahaha

hahaha

Harold Reynolds is jinxing Derek Lowe as we speak on ESPN. He and Peter Gammons are pumping him up big time. I can understand Gammons because he's a huge Sox fan, but we all know Harold Reynold, Tim McCarver, and Joe Morgan are classic closet Yankee Fans and Red Sox Jinxers. I do want to applaud Grady Little for pitching Lowe tonight whatever happens. He can easily make a case for pitching Burkett because it's OK to come out of Yankee Stadium 1-1. But now if Lowe can pull it off tonight the Sox will be 2-0 heading to Fenway for 3 games with Pedro pitching game 3. Can you have it any better than that????
 
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