Ncaa 10/11

[bigdad2]

LW 4-3
YTD 29-15
Futures 0-1 (with 1 pending; LSU to win SEC)

Frustrating weekend but but we look to jump ahead this weekend. Originally I had planned on between 11-13 plays but I am going to try to stay under 10. Lots of things that I like but early on I am on these three picks:

A&M -20.5 - More of a play against Baylor after their stunning SU win vs. Colorado last weekend. This falls into playing against a team who was a 7+ dog the previous week and had a SU win. A&M big here and if Baylor loses last weekend this is at 23-24 easy.

Michigan St. -3.5 - Let me see if I understand this; MSU beat Iowa is 5-1 on the season while IU has been outscored 112-52 the last 3 weeks and this is the line? I had capped this at 7-8.5 and consider this a gift.

Mizzu +7.5 - got this early to get the hook on the points. I've had this circled all year as this is a trap in my mind for Nebraska. Let's take a look at who they've beaten - a fiesty Troy St team, @So. Miss, Penn St., Utah St and Okla St by 7 in the opener. That's it. They have the #1 defense in the land... because they haven't played anyone. I'll also put a little on the ML as I think this is an upset waiting to happen. Mizzu decided not to play against KU and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. I can't wait to hear what Trev Alberts has to say after this game...

More plays to follow.



3N3 Record YTD 3-5

Three plays again this weekend as we have:

USC -20.5
Utah ST. +2 (possibly a ML play as well)
LaLayf -4


Good luck to all!

 

[gardenweasel]

bigdad2

bigdad2

sold me on tx a+m....... the mich st line looks off to me also.....add the fact that every consensus site is on the spartans and the line still drops a point and a half?...mich st is 5th,i believe vs the run but 98th against the pass....beutjer is a little scary......i have trepidation,to put it mildly....

as far as nebraska and missou,i`ve been wishy washy all week on this one.....nebraska`s schedule hasn`t exactly been murderers row,but,neither has missou`s.....and missou`s defense has looked downright disgraceful vs kansas and middle tenn st.....still,the jamaal lord factor looms over this game like the sword of damocles.......

i took nebraska small at -6....now i`m not so sure....may buy back at +7....still pondering....

thanks for the informative post.....makes me rethink my initial opinions,and that,for me is a very good thing....tend to lock into games.....need other points of view to keep me honest....

g.l.

 

[AR182]

bigdad,

good luck this weekend!!


curious as to what the 3n3 plays are?

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I like the plays! GL

HORNS

 

[bigdad2]

gardenweasel - Jamal Lord has shown nothing to merit him being mentioned in the same breath as Tommy Frazier or Eric Crouch. In fact, this team will show it's true colors with Mizzu this weekend, A&M to follow then @Tex, KSt. and @Col to end the year. I would be shocked if they win 3 of those games to put it mildly. As for MSU, it looks almost too good to be true but I think any team which has Matt LoVecchio at the helm is in trouble.

AR182 - The 3N3 theory is playing against a team which is playing it's 3rd consecutive road game. This was brought up by a poster on the site back in '01 and has proven to hit over 62% the last 3 years. As you can see, so far this year it has underachieved but I do expect it to be profitable before the end of the year. There are 22 games which meet the criteria this season and after this weekend half of the games will have been played. Hope this helps and best of luck to you this weekend!

 

[gardenweasel]

bd2

bd2

just an fyi...i believe lovecchio qb`s indiana,not illinois.....jon beutjer is the illini qb......

again,g.l. this weekend...

 

[bigdad2]

gardenweasel - in my haste to post I did put LoVecchio versus Beujter who has been okay in spite of the team this year. I had been talking to a friend about how bad ND was and LoVecchio came to my head for some reason. :shrug:

 

[bigdad2]

Adding:

Boise St -21.5 - BSU is 8-1 ATS L9 home Oct games

KSt. -3 - OSU 2-6-1 ATS L9 vs. KSt., Synder is 11-2 ATS when a line is +3 to -3 and KST. is 17-7 ATS off conference rival loss

UConn +17 - more of a play against NCSt. and their defense as they are 3-7-1 ATS when favored by 14+. UConn keeps this close.

Tenn +8.5/Wisc +8.5 - Two game teaser where both teams have a great shot of winning outright. Points will be hard to come by in both games and in the OSU/Wisc game where 3 of L5 have been decided by 5 points or less. Wisky is also 4-1 ATS L5 vs. OSU. The play on Tenn. is going with the more talented team and getting the points at home are key. Again both winning would not surprise me at all.

***Rutgers +18.5 - The numbers don't lie... RU is 5-0 ATS. Everyone seems to agree that this is a trap game for Rutgers as they have been slaughtered in 3 of the last 4 games vs. WV with a combined score of 182-23!!! I've been saying that I'll continue to back the team until they kick me to the curb.

 

[AR182]

bigdad,

does the *** indicate that rutgers is your best bet?

good luck

 

[bigdad2]

AR182 - actually quite the opposite and I probably should explain. Having followed RU for the first 5 games I am inclined to lay off this game but I have decided to stay on board until they fail to cover this year. From a wagering aspect this should probably be a pass but I will take them again. This is similar to Boise St. for me from last year as I followed all their plays. I put the *** to indicate that while I have this as my selection it would not be highly rated. Hope this helps and best of luck this weekend!

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck BigDad2!!!!

 

[bigdad2]

Adding:

CMU +18.5 - thanks hellah

 

[bigdad2]

Last pick:

Duke/MD Over 45 - Maryland may score almost that much by themselves in this game.

 

[JCDunkDogs]

I like all of your plays, bigdad2. The only one I disagree on is Missouri. Good luck.

neb rationale: I think mizzou has been out-stated by its BCS opponents. But I like your take on the game, too. gl.