beware

[THUNDER]

money has been flowing in on mich like niagra falls since tuesday and the line has moved ahalf to not at all. when capping this game forget about the past look at each category does mich have a advantage- minny has been game planning for this game since august- oregon and iowa showed blueprints on how really large weaknesses mich has. who has mich beaten and how do they play on the road. i have some oddball plays at times and i have said trends are not my method of capping- if a lin e looks funny to me i look at that game hard. I see where the money is going and why it is going there- i will go where the money is going if the play is that strong but like monday night i laid off because money flowed in on tb worse than this game- one guy took in 68k on tb and parlays with tb and 275 on indy. meanwhile the line moved a half. this happens all the time. now am i saying i like minny no i am not saying that- but i might- but i might lay off the game. there are a couple games sat that money is coming in at a lopsided side but the line has not changed. and i cap these games and the i have the game capped against the money coming in. if you have followed my plays i am not a contrarion.but if one ignores this hc tool you will get your booty kicked 7 out of 10 times because that is the winning percentage in these games.basketball is the worst as far as your man playing you and that is why very few win in hoops. i am rattling on here but beware of games like this one gl

 

[homedog]

Thanks for the input Thunder.

 

[gsp]

Sounds like one of my NBA plays. I have penciled Minn in already but you know me, no play is for sure until right before game-time. Good luck Thunder.

 

[shamrock]

agree with your statements 100% thunder, this lined is starting to move. Pinnacle has
Michigan -2, and juice -111

good luck

 

[Fabulous]

Where do you go to find out where the majority of the $$$$ is being played? Are there websites that show how much $$$$ is on one team vs another? Any help would be appreciated.

thanks
Fab

 

[fletcher]

line has moved from ev thur to - 2 out here so that is a little more then a half. this will be a tuff game and it has to do with mich has their back against the wall a loss here and they are done in any chance of a big pay bowl. it will be a fun game to watch.

good luck

 

[shamrock]

Pinnacle now -2.5-108, believe it or not, that makes me feel little better about Michigan.

 

[BigTymePlayer]

Very interesting write up Thunder, thanks.

btp

 

[Kdogg21]

Good point Thunder

thanks and GL

 

[probert]

so with that being said, michigan has scored a minimal
of 27 points this season even in defeats. WHEN they lose
tonight and get their 27 points, minnesota should have at
least 28 points or more. OVER 53.5 seems to be the play
right. gl

 

[Nickelback]

FWIW:

Here's the LVSC lines starting with the original that first came out to where it went afterwards:

LVSC
10/05 18:01 ET - Michigan -4.0
10/06 16:19 ET - Minnesota PK
10/08 13:52 ET - Minnesota PK (52.0o/u)
10/09 13:15 ET - Minnesota PK (53.0o/u)
10/09 13:38 ET - Minnesota PK (53.5o/u)
10/10 10:35 ET - Michigan -2.0 (53.5o/u)
10/10 14:30 ET - Michigan -2.0 (54.0o/u)


Everyone can read, but it looks like a lot of money hit Minnesota first with Michigan favored by 4 and has now been slowly moving back to the original. I think the reason the line has moved slowly back up instead of a huge increase of 1 or 1.5 points is all the money that hit Minnesota when this line FIRST came out. Since the consensus is with Michigan at 64.6% I think the line has moved up pretty quickly as its not like 90% of the cash is on Michigan for this game.

Just my two cents. I would be more concerned if the line was moving in Minnesota's direction with Michigan having the consensus of the public but it appears to be moving in the consensus direction after the inital hit when the lines first came out.

 

[hellah10]

i never saw the line at 4...but if thats the case, then the smart money is on Minnesota...so good

 

[Nickelback]

It is funny because I never saw it either. . . I assume the line didn't last long and most books never even posted it until the change already took effect.

I'm still on Michigan though! We'll see what happens.

GL to everyone.

 

[IE]

agree with you fletcher, will be a interesting game to watch...

for what its worth two of the bigger players offshore had this line history with them hanging minnesota -1.0 tuesday...



olympic:

Date/Time of Line Visitor Line Home Total

10/10/2003 12:29:53 PM Michigan -2(-110) / 2(-110) Minnesota U o53.5 -110
10/10/2003 03:41:53 AM Michigan -1.5(-110) / 1.5(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/09/2003 11:22:55 PM Michigan -1(-110) / 1(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/09/2003 11:20:53 AM Michigan 0(-110) / 0(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/09/2003 12:19:42 AM Michigan -1(-110) / 1(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/08/2003 04:32:13 PM Michigan 0(-110) / 0(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/08/2003 04:32:12 PM Michigan 0(-110) / 0(-110) Minnesota U o54 -110
10/08/2003 11:42:24 AM Michigan 0(-110) / 0(-110) Minnesota U o
10/07/2003 11:44:35 AM Michigan 1(-110) / -1(-110) Minnesota U o



pinnacle:


Date/Time of Line Visitor Line Home Total

10/10/2003 04:22:09 PM Michigan -2.5(-106) / +2.5(-104) Minnesota U o53.5-104
10/10/2003 04:21:13 PM Michigan -2.5(-106) / +2.5(-104) Minnesota U o53.5-108
10/10/2003 04:06:15 PM Michigan -2.5(-105) / +2.5(-105) Minnesota U o54+107
10/10/2003 03:56:05 PM Michigan -2.5(-103) / +2.5(-107) Minnesota U o54+107
10/10/2003 03:38:05 PM Michigan -2.5(-104) / +2.5(-106) Minnesota U o54+107
10/10/2003 03:18:17 PM Michigan -2.5(-104) / +2.5(-106) Minnesota U o54-107
10/10/2003 01:55:09 PM Michigan -2.5(-104) / +2.5(-106) Minnesota U o53.5-110
10/10/2003 01:37:15 PM Michigan -2(-111) / +2(+101) Minnesota U o53.5-110
10/10/2003 12:36:20 PM Michigan -2(-107) / +2(-103) Minnesota U o53.5-110
10/10/2003 12:18:02 PM Michigan -2(-107) / +2(-103) Minnesota U o53.5-111
10/10/2003 12:15:04 PM Michigan -2(-108) / +2(-102) Minnesota U o53.5-111
10/10/2003 12:04:04 PM Michigan -2(-109) / +2(-101) Minnesota U o53.5-111
10/10/2003 12:03:06 PM Michigan -2(-108) / +2(-102) Minnesota U o53.5-111
10/10/2003 12:02:05 PM Michigan -2(-108) / +2(-102) Minnesota U o53.5-115
10/10/2003 11:47:02 AM Michigan -2(-105) / +2(-105) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 11:36:09 AM Michigan -2(-103) / +2(-107) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 11:35:05 AM Michigan -1.5(-108) / +1.5(-102) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 11:28:03 AM Michigan -1.5(-105) / +1.5(-105) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 10:46:02 AM Michigan -1(-111) / +1(+101) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 10:44:04 AM Michigan -1(-109) / +1(-101) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 10:03:07 AM Michigan -1(-108) / +1(-102) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 09:55:02 AM Michigan -1(-111) / +1(+101) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 09:51:09 AM Michigan -1(-108) / +1(-102) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/10/2003 01:25:01 AM Michigan -1(-107) / +1(-103) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/09/2003 11:25:59 PM Michigan -1(-106) / +1(-104) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/09/2003 05:47:12 PM Michigan -1(-104) / +1(-106) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/09/2003 05:02:11 PM Michigan +1(-117) / -1(+107) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/08/2003 04:36:47 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u53.5-107
10/08/2003 03:19:47 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u53.5-106
10/08/2003 03:13:41 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U o52.5-108
10/08/2003 03:13:40 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u52.5-108
10/08/2003 02:14:50 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u52-108
10/08/2003 10:11:10 AM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u52-106
10/08/2003 10:11:09 AM Michigan +1(-115) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u52-106
10/07/2003 08:12:53 PM Michigan +1(-115) / -1(+105) Minnesota U u52-106
10/07/2003 06:47:53 PM Michigan +1(-114) / -1(+104) Minnesota U u52-106
10/07/2003 04:17:57 PM Michigan +1(-116) / -1(+106) Minnesota U u52-106
10/07/2003 11:44:50 AM Michigan +1(-112) / -1(+102) Minnesota U u52-106


good luck tonight whatever side you take.

 

[SixFive]

looks like a 3 point line move. Minny or nothing for me. Still pondering.