My GOY for 10/18

Nickelback

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First off, I'm not a tout. . . at least I try not to be and I certainly don't sell my picks so when I say GOY, I'm not looking for attention except I hope everyone takes a close look at this one and pounds it with me if they like it! Two potential GOYs lost last week so take that however you want. . . I should have known and learned by now that high profile games are not the games to pound! Lets lay everything out with this play:

La Tech +100 ML (or take 1.5 points or up to 3 if you want to lay the juice) over Hawaii.

Where to begin. . .. hmmmm, lets start with Hawaii:

The Rainbows have the very best home field advantage of all universities. . . they enjoy it in college basketball and college football as most of you know. The downside for the Bows obviously is when they have to leave their island and come to the mainland. They have to endure a vastly different timezone and play games during the morning for them as opposed to night games as they are used to when playing at home. Take a look at their schedule. Up till this season, the Bows only played three to five road games out of thirteen. This year it has increased to six. Can anybody guess which games the Bows have won this year and which games they have lost? Yes, playing at USC is a game they should not have won. Howver, they lost to double digits as a 1 point dog at UNLV and lost by double digits as a seven and a half point favorite to Tulsa. These are teams they would have won by double digits if they played them at home. Almost no question about it in my mind. Now they have to play at LA Tech. . . a team that played well against Boise State and they are a slight favorite.

On to La Tech:

Already mentioned they lost to Boise State by six at home. Their only other home game so far this year was their very first against Miami and they got pasted. La Tech is due for a nice home win and this looks like a great spot for them. Their most recent outing was against Texas El Paso and they were fortunate to come back from a huge deficit to pull that game out on the road. This give us added value this week IMO. Not to mention that Hawaii crushed Fresno State at home after four consecutive ATS losses. . . I think we have several points on our side off the bat. Now throw in the fact that this game is being played at 2pm eastern time (what is that, 7am Hawaii time?) and we have a huge advantage for the hometeam IMO.

So to summarize, we have a team that is on a natural high after a huge home win vs. a team that squeaked by against a pretty sorry team on the road. However, the tides turn both ways for this matchup and it looks like a perfect spot for Tech to win this game by double digits IMO. Sure Hawaii will be as ready as they can, but I imagine they will look a little sluggish and a little slow playing during a different time than they are used to. Don't forget, Hawaii can certainly hold early practices for the next couple days, but how will that really prepare them for an actual game?


Anyways, more on this game as I receive it. . . if there are key injuries that we should all be aware of, please post them. La Tech is a good team much like UNLV and certainly as good as Tulsa.

Definitely let me know what you think of this pick. GL all.
 

gridman

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Good post and I am a die-hard Hawaii fan! The only thing I would be concerned about is that when Hawaii lost to Tulsa ( no business losing) they were without their #1, 2, & 3 receivers. Sophs and Freshmen tried to make up the deficit and just couldn't do the job. Also, Hawaii sucked big time. In the Fresno game, #3 (Owens) receiver was back and contributed with 2 TDs. They should get #2 (Cockheran) back for LAT. Since the passing game is Hawaii's forte, its experienced receivers is key as they do a lot of adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Hawaii has played quite good on the road for the last 2 years and agree with you that this year they have reverted to previous form. I believe the reason for this is inexperience. Their O line has been completely revamped and have a lot of youngsters (Freshmen & RS Freshmen, & Sophs). This has also contributed to Hawaii's below average showing in their passing game. Won't make much of the Fresno win but I do hope that their youngsters are starting to see the light. LAT would be a good test. Passed the Fresno game but did play the over (56) and it was a sweet win. Agree with you in that LAT should be the play but Hawaii's oncoming "lightbulb" and return of #2 & #3 receivers offset by road woes makes me take a pass.
Will keep you posted if I hear anything new.
GM:cool:
 

Nickelback

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Gridman,

Good reply and I like to hear opinions from the other side on this one. . . the fact that Hawaii was without some of their talented receivers for the Tulsa game is slight concern, but I feel that La Tech should be prepared for this game given the fact they have already faced Boise and Dinwiddie who is a solid QB with talented receivers just like Chang. Boise State played a great game to come away with a win. If La Tech had not faced an offense every bit as talented as Hawaii's, then I would be staying far away from this game. Again, the deciding factor for me in making this such a large play is the fact that Hawaii plays their A game at home and maybe a B- game at best on the road.

I believe Hawaii would need to bring their A game to beat a decent La Tech team on the road (similar to the game Boise State played) and I just don't see it happening for the Bows even though they certainly would if this game was played on the island.

Gl bud and please keep us posted with any news you come across for this game.
 

Romaco

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Oct 13, 2003
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Latech has better athletes than UH, but I hate to bet against a team that has won ATS so many times.
 

Nickelback

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Romaco,

Amazing enough, Hawaii has only covered one game this year. .. the game played against Fresno State on Saturday. They lost four in a row ATS before this game (the Rice game was basically right on the number so it depends on which line you were able to get).
 

g-hawg

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NB

NB

Thanx for the great write-up, also thanx to gridman for the info. I too will look into this one, but so far I must agree with you Tech should win this one. GL as always
 

Romaco

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Nickelback,
You are right! I was mistaken on the ATS for UH. I studied up on it after your post, and now I think you are right on. I will follow your lead on this one. Do you have any thoughts on the Texas Tech game?
Thanks,
Romaco
 

gridman

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Nov 22, 2000
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Update - Cockerhan might not be ready and not even make the trip. Hawaii's stud DT, Isaac Sopoaga might be back but his replacement, Lui Fuga is hurting (sprained knee). Possible weakness in the front 4. Still planning on passing this game but startg to lean to LAT. Will keep forum posted.
GM:cool:
 

1NOLE

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L-Tech Money-Money-Money

L-Tech Money-Money-Money

NICKLEBACK-w/u on L-Tech,HAWAII terrible on the road,Timmy:confused: good for 2 picks & Hawaii just suck:(.
Aloha & Peace Out,1NOLE
 

genosays

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Sep 3, 2001
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Grass or artificial turf at La Tech???

Grass or artificial turf at La Tech???

Does Louisiana Tech play on a grass or artificial turf field at home?? Believe Hawaii plays on the fake stuff on the island at home and that could make a big difference in slowing down their passing game if LT plays on real grass. Just a thought for this game. Good luck.
 
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