anybody grabbin pavano tuesday at that price?.......

[gman2]

yes boys, i know prior is tough to go against right now but pressure starts shifting a little to the cubs right now.

marlins had some chances to break through against prior in game 2 in wrigley. he wasnt untouchable. marlins squandered those early inning chances and then he settled down and pitched well, and of course the double digit runs scored by the cubs didnt hurt.

anyone else thinking of grabbing pavano and the +220 return? i dont think the cubs will close it out in 6, but thats just me

 

[Bombs]

Pavano is huge value here. He can be very, very tough, but may have had a bit of a dead arm at the end of the season with some bad outings. Plenty of rest for this one.

Cubs will be wound super tight, and they and their fans are clearly taking this spot for granted. I think at +220-240, Marlins and Pavano a huge value here.

 

[mjalam]

the marlins started to hit prior a little git in the late innings of the last time they faced him...pavano has looked solid everytime i've seen him..i think its worth a shot

 

[gman2]

mjalam:

you bring up a GREAT point, and one that i myself noticed in the 2nd game of this series.

at one point, i think the cubs were up 11-0.

if im dusty baker, i get prior his 5 innings to qualify him for the win (which he did) but once those 5 shutout innings are done, i get him OUT OF THERE.

and its NOT for the reason of saving his arm.

i think its a PSYCHOLOGICAL advantage for the cubs if prior is out of there after 5 shutout innings.

when the marlins got to him in the 7th or whatever, they obviously werent going to come back.

but they did something very big in my opinion.

they removed the aura of invincibility from prior.

if baker pulls prior after 5 innings with the cubs leading 11-0, he not only gets the win for prior, not only saves his arm, but also has the marlins thinking "fu/ck, we cant touch this guy. theres no way we can beat him if we face him again"

but those hits the marlins got late, and those runs they pushed across should help them confidence-wise in game six.

and bombs, youre right. pavano can be very effective when he has his stuff working. hes bounced around the league a little, but hes always been an enigma- because he possesses a lot of untapped potential when he was a highly rated prospect a few years back. he's certainly no beckett, but if the cubs think theyre going to go out and murder this guy, i think theyre wrong. he could give them some trouble.

 

[bej0101]

cubbies seal the deal in style..10/ 3..the party begins soon:thefinger

 

[E-Z MONEY$$$]

I don't think the cubs will lose tomorrow, but for those of you considering taking the marlins tomorrow which i am NOT betting because i have too much in cubs futures already, and really think the cubs win, this is what i would advise to do:

Going to use $100 as an example:
Scenarios:

Scenario 1) bet 100/230 on pavano
win =+230
lose =-100

OR

Scenario 2) bet 100/765 on marlins to win the series (pinnacle current line)
if they lose tomorrow, you would be out your original 100 anyway, no biggie.

but if the marlins win, we can now expect for a game 7 an opening line of around cubs -170 is a guess might be slightly higher, but in game 7s damn anything can happen so im guessing it wont be close to -200
now bet 340/200 on the cubs in game 7

total risk involved is your original 100 which if they lose game 6 you would have lost anyway
if you make it to game 7 2 scenarios can happen:
total risk is now 440 with these 2 possible scenarios:
440--return--540 on cubs guaranteeing you a 100 profit on your wagers
or
440--return--765 guaranteeing you a 325 profit
you cannot lose.....you either win 100 or 325..win win situation

but all of this is pre-supposed on the cubs winning game 6 which you are gonna do anyway if you are betting pavano anyway.

I DO NOT THINK the cubs will lose game 6, but i think the aforementioned scenario is worth considering for those of you who are just gonna take the marlins in game 6. You can always tweak the sort of scalp i just mentioned to tailor to your needs and how much you want to gamble, but i'd consider this before i would bet the marlins only for game 6. Like i said, i think cubs roll , but this is worth considering.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

 

[ndnfan]

Personally, I can't see the Cubs losing this one. True, the line is inflated some, but if you're not playing the Cubs, I'd just stay clear of the game.

I think the biggest difference maker in this game is that it's being played in Chicago. Prior is a big game pitcher who pitches well under pressure.....always has and will most likely pitch well in this game also. Pavano, on the other hand, has always been horrible on the road and today he'll be pitching on the road at a loud, packed Wrigley Field vs a team that he's had no success against. Heck, the guy has just 13 wins in 63 games on the road which includes 54 starts.....not someone you want out there in a must win game.

Bottomline, Marlins.....no thank you! Don't like the Cubs on the
moneyline either, but I will try the runline because if everything holds true, the Cubs win this one by more than one run, if somehow Prior gets rocked, anything can happen and the juice is saved.

GL

-ndnfan

 

[hawkeye]

how many pitches has Prior thrown in his last two starts?

 

[rrc]

Last start 116 pitches, not sure about 2 starts back.

 

[toastonakick]

133 I think against the Braves

 

[hawkeye]

thanks seems like alot

 

[BigTymePlayer]

First let me say all your points are valid but you also have to understand a pitchers mindset is totally different when the score is 11-0 or if it was 1-0. They marlins did hit prior late in the game but he was just throwing the ball, he wasnt as focused since the game was out of reach. He has thrown alot of pitches the last part of the season and there is no reason he will not throw over 100 tonite. There may be value with the marlins at +220 but the cubs are destined to make the world series. They will not be stopped and they will win tonite. Dont waste your money on the marlins tonite. You are better off taking the marlins to win the series, because if the marlins pull some miracle out of their ass they will win game 7, no doubt about it. the marlins are now +700 to win the nlcs. more value in that than in them winning tonite.
bottom line is the cubs close it out tonite.

cubs -250

btp

 

[gman2]

big time player:

i totally agree a pitchers mindset is different when hes up 11-0.
hes mainly throwing fastballs and is not going to walk anyone, therefore more balls will be hit into play.

thats why i think dusty should have pulled him. he already qualified for the win. and to that point, florida didnt touch him.

why not keep that aura of invincibility with prior intact?

marlins now feel like they have a shot.
and thats makes them dangerous imo.

 

[SixFive]

might give them a shot +1.5. Gl if u play that big dawg.

 

[bej0101]

odds are big but will be lost when cubbies win huge..prior does not have to be unhittable, just hold them to 2 or 3 and the cubs will score at least 5..

 

[Mr. Majestyk]

Sounds like the same talk the last time Prior pitched and how much "value" there was in taking the Marlins and the great Brad Penney. You saw how that one turned out and I would expect nothing different tonight. These aren't the Cubs of old and if this series hasn't already convinced you that this is the Cubs year then you're bound to suffer another betting loss. Chicago and thr run line is the way to go here.

 

[Chicago Bob]

FWIW, Prior is 9-1 with 5 full days of rest, 1.52 ERA

also 11-2 after a Cub loss

Chicago Bob

 

[MACH1]

I'd like to chime in for a quick question.

With the weather forcasted to be cold and rainy, wouldn't that definately favor C and the under or is that too much of a public way of thinking?

I don't think that FL. will be able to hit anything Prior throws up there in this cold weather, at least not hard.

Looking at RL and Under 7...